研究报告全文：甲醇周报供需结构边际弱化关注成本支撑作者广发期货发展研究中心能化组联系方式020-88818033广发期货APP微信公众号本报告中所有观点仅供参考请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明2023年9月22日品种观点品种主要观点925-928策略供应方面甲醇开工提升至高位厂家降价排库压力仍存近期煤制利润有所下滑关注其对甲醇供应影响甲醇到港量增加显著港口甲醇库存持续累库至高位甲醇短期供应压力仍在需求端传统下游开工偏高且相较稳定但采购积极性有所转弱MTO单边高位试空套利上中长期甲醇开工抬升至高位关注下游节前备货情况整体而言随着甲醇开工的提升和到港量的逢高做缩MTO利润增加港口累库压力较大在需求未有进一步好转情况下甲醇供需结构边际弱化但煤价对甲醇有一定支撑短期或维持震荡格局甲醇单边找寻逢高试空机会但仍需关注煤炭价格风险有效下跌或需看到能源端共振套利上中长期逢高做缩MTO利润21行情回顾3甲醇行情回顾上周甲醇价格先涨后跌周初下游集中补货中间商存补空需求期货价格上涨但下游对高价接受度一般周后期下游采货积极性略有下滑部分厂家存排库需求现货报盘调低期货价格回落42价差分析5上周国内甲醇现货价格冲高回落国内主产区甲醇价格国内港口甲醇价格国内主产区甲醇价格3400国内港口甲醇价格320031002900300027002800250026002300240021002200190020001700内蒙出厂价元吨陕西出厂价元吨川渝市场价元吨山东市场价元吨太仓市场价元吨浙江市场价元吨福建市场价元吨广东市场价元吨国内甲醇区域价差港口-内蒙价差国内甲醇区域价差元吨港口-内蒙价差8009006007004005002003000100-200-100-300112131415161718191101111121太仓-内蒙元吨鲁南-内蒙元吨太仓-河南元吨太仓-华南元吨20192020202120222023上周甲醇期货冲高后回落盘面波动幅度更甚基差走强元吨甲醇主力期货价格元吨甲醇基差元吨甲醇1-5价差30040003452003500245100300014502500-100452000-200-551500-300-155112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023元吨甲醇5-9价差元吨甲醇9-1价差3002002502001001501000500-100-50-200-100-150-30011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120192020202120222023201920202021202220237甲醇与相关品种比价PPMA比值PEMA比值甲醇焦煤比值355425424244242431313313313112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023MAUR比值甲醇乙二醇比值211111111110110112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201920202021202220232019202020212022202383供需分析9近期甲醇装置检修情况地区公司名称产能原料检修开始检修结束西北青海桂鲁80天然气停车中待定西北金诚泰30煤停车中待定华中鹤壁煤化工60煤2023920预计10月7日左右重启西北西北能源30煤2023918计划检修7天山东金能华东20煤2023915待定华东山东荣信25焦炉气20239132023916西北久泰准格尔100煤2023910计划检修15-20天华东济宁盛发15焦炉气2023962023918西北宁夏和宁30煤20238262023921华北孝义鹏飞30焦炉气2023826计划本周末恢复运行华东安徽华谊60煤20238242023919西北世林化工30煤2023730计划检修两个月西北内蒙古国泰40煤2023623待定10甲醇供应卓创全国甲醇开工率西北地区甲醇开工率甲醇非一体化开工率907575857070807565657060656055605550551121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212019202020212022202320192020202120222023202120222023截至9月21日国内甲醇整体装置开工负荷为7350较上周上涨034个百分点较去年同期上涨546个百分点西北地区的开工负荷为8298较上周上涨057个百分点较去年同期上涨652个百分点本周期内虽然华中地区开工负荷下降但受西北华北西南地区开工负荷上涨影响导致全国甲醇开工负荷上涨截至9月21日国内非一体化甲醇平均开工负荷为6438较上周上涨008个百分点11甲醇供应-卓创元吨煤制甲醇毛利元吨天然气制甲醇毛利80060013454002008450-200345-400-600-155-800-1000-6551121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212019202020212022202320192020202120222023煤制甲醇开工率天然气制甲醇开工率焦炉气制甲醇开工率857068806360755850705365404860304355112131415161718191101111121203811213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120192020202120222023201920202021202220232019202020212022202312甲醇供应-隆众万吨煤制甲醇利润万吨天然气制甲醇利润万吨河北焦炉气制甲醇利润800250015006002000400100020015000500-2001000-4005000-600-8000-1000-500-500-1200-1400-1000-1000122232425262728292102112122122232425262728292102112122122232425262728292102112122201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023万吨中国甲醇产量全国甲醇开工率西北地区甲醇开工率85180100170809590160857515080757014070651306560120551121314151617181911011111216011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120192020202120222023201920202021202220232019202020212022202313甲醇内外盘价差元吨外盘甲醇价格元吨东南亚-中国价差鹿特丹-中国价差400100013003509001100800900300700700600250500500200400300300100150200-1001000-300112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121CFR中国美元吨FOB美国美元吨2019202020212022202320192020202120222023FOB鹿特丹欧元吨CFR东南亚美元吨元吨美湾-中国价差10008006004002000-200-4001121314151617181911011111212019202020212022202314甲醇进口情况国外甲醇开工率元吨甲醇进口毛利万吨甲醇到港量40045753004035702003010025652001560-10010555-2001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111210112131415161718191101111121201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023千吨甲醇进口量国家公司名称所在地装置产能目前运行情况1400美国natagasoline德克萨斯175目前装置开工负荷不高1300德国MiderTotal-helm卢娜80装置稳定运行中1200近期装置稳定运行中计划10月停车检修45-卡塔尔QAFAC卡塔尔梅萨伊德99110050天1000马来西亚Petronas目前其2170万吨装置停车检修中1小装置马来西亚纳闽2242900石化公司稳定运行中计划本月底重启800目前两套装置其中一套装置上周周末短时中东其它700ZagrosPC阿萨鲁耶2330停车检修2-3天后重启恢复另外一套装置稳区域600定运行中近期装港排货速度缓慢500中东其它本周装置连续降负运行近期计划招标销售SabalanPC阿萨鲁耶1651月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月区域远月装港船货2019202020212022202315甲醇库存卓创万吨国内甲醇企业库存天西北主产区甲醇企业库存100159013801170609507405302031121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212019202020212022202320192020202120222023千吨华南甲醇港口库存千吨中国甲醇港口库存千吨华东甲醇港口库存140012503051300115012002551050110095020510008509007501558006501057005506004505550035011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120192020202120222023201920202021202220232019202020212022202316甲醇库存隆众万吨万吨甲醇内陆总库存西北厂区库存7545706540603555305025452040153530101121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212019202020212022202320192020202120222023万吨甲醇港口库存万吨华东港口库存万吨华南港口库存15035120130301001102580902060701550401030205100011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120182019202020182019202020182019202020212022202320212022202320212022202317甲醇下游情况传统下游加权开工率西北甲醇产销率万吨甲醇企业待发订单17550501554545401353511530402595203575151055305112131415161718191101111121350112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023万吨甲醇传统下游采购量万吨甲醇制烯烃企业采购量吨太仓走货量650600045500054043540003032530002020002151101000500011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120192020202120222023201920202021202220232019202020212022202318甲醇下游MTO元吨元吨PP-3MA元吨宁波某MTO装置模拟利润常州某MTO装置模拟利润100025002500500150015000-500500500-1000-500-500-1500-1500-2000-1500-2500-2500-2500-3500112131415161718191101111121-3000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201820192020201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023202120222023万吨MTO企业甲醇库存MTO开工率外采甲醇制烯烃开工率9510090901009085808080707075606070505065406040112131415161718191101111121305511213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120192020202120222023201920202021202220232019202020212022202319甲醇传统下游元吨天国内醋酸库存天数国内醋酸开工率国内醋酸毛利951090455085835508067525507065155046025555050-450045112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023国内MTBE开工率元吨山东MTBE毛利国内MTBE库容率70250012652000106015008551000505006450440-500235-100030-1500011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120192020202120222023201920202021202220232019202020212022202320