2月的经济数据证实经济逐步复苏，我们预计复苏将持续。房地产投资下行有所收斂，推动整体投资增速改善。房地产行业的其他指标也有好转。线下消费的复苏推动社会零售销售回暖。但受农历新年的影响，工业生产增速不及预期。随着经济正常化，我们预计数据将进一步改善。
　　宏观政策预计维持支持取态。2023年适当扩大的财政赤字和适当提高的地方政府专项债额度，与支持持续复苏的政策立场一致。我们预计稳定的投资和消费复苏，加上净出口坚挺，将支持增长。在经济前景改善的情况下,我们预计央行将维持充裕的流动性，降息可能不大。

研究报告全文：Economics15March2023CCBISECURITIESRESEARCHChinaEconomicsUpdateAgradualrecoveryisunfolding中国经济评论复苏稳步开始Jan-FebeconomicdataconfirmsagradualrecoveryisunfoldingandweexpectKevinXieafurtherrecoveryInvestmentbeatexpectationsthankstoafaster-than-expected85239118241turnaroundinrealestateinvestmentOtherpropertyindicatorsalsoexhibitedkevinxieccbintlcomnotableimprovementTherecoveryinretailsaleswasdrivenbyofflineconsumptionHoweverindustrialproductiongrewslowerthanexpectedpossiblyreflectingtheLiCuidisruptionfromChineseNewYearCNYWeexpectthedatatoreflectfurther85239118274cuiliccbintlcomevidenceofarecoveryastheeconomynormalizesMacropoliciestoremainsupportiveAlargerfiscaldeficitandhigherlocalgovernmentspecialbondquotaisconsistentwiththesupportivepolicystanceinaidofasustainedrecoveryWeexpectsteadyinvestmentsolidnetexportsandarecoveryinconsumptiontodrivegrowthWeexpectthePBoCtomaintainabundantliquiditywhilerefrainingfromcuttinginterestratesastheeconomicoutlookimproves2月的经济数据证实经济逐步复苏我们预计复苏将持续房地产投资下行有所收斂推动整体投资增速改善房地产行业的其他指标也有好转线下消费的复苏推动社会零售销售回暖但受农历新年的影响工业生产增速不及预期随着经济正常化我们预计数据将进一步改善宏观政策预计维持支持取态2023年适当扩大的财政赤字和适当提高的地方政府专项债额度与支持持续复苏的政策立场一致我们预计稳定的投资和消费复苏加上净出口坚挺将支持增长在经济前景改善的情况下我们预计央行将维持充裕的流动性降息可能不大AnalystcertificationsandotherdisclosuresonlastpageThisresearchreporthasbeencreatedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLtd1Economics15March2023Abroadeconomicrecoveryatthestartof2023IndustrialproductionIPgrowthreboundedfrom13YoYinDecto24YoYinJan-Febthoughtheresultwasbelowtheconsensusexpectationfor26YoYgrowthSequentialIPgrowthacceleratedfrom-01MoMinDectoanaverageof02MoMoverthefirsttwomonthsof2023whichwasneverthelessbelowtheaverageof06MoMin2019Thereboundinindustrialproductionwasconsistentwithrisingsurvey-basedmanufacturingPMIasChinakickedoffitseconomicreopeningHowevertheCNYin21-27Jan2023andtheCovidoutbreakatthestartoftheyeardelayedworkersreturntoworkdisruptingfactoryoperationsBysectorminingoutputgrowthslowedslightlyfrom49YoYinDecto47YoYinJan-Febwhilemanufacturingproductionacceleratedfrom02YoYinDecto21YoYinJan-FebFig1Electricityandutilityproductiongrewby24YoYslowerthanDecs7YoYRetailsalesimprovednotablyfollowingChinaseconomicreopeningYear-on-yeargrowthreboundedto35followingthreeconsecutivemonthsofcontractionin4Q22inlinewithconsensusSequentiallyretailsalesgrowthreboundedtoanaverageof03MoMthoughitremainsbelowtheaverageof07MoMin2019priortothepandemicTheremovalofCovidrestrictionsledtoa92YoYriseincateringspendinginJan-FebFuelspendingrose109YoYinJan-FebbecauseofthenormalizationoftravelandtourismBycontrastonlinespendinggrowthslowedto67YoYthoughitcontinuedtooutstripoverallgrowthinretailsalesunderscoringthestayingpowerofe-commerceHousing-relatedspendingroseslightlyinJan-FebconsistentwithimprovingpropertysalesA65YoYcontractionincarsaleswasadragonoverallretailsalesFig2Fixed-assetinvestmentFAIgrowthreboundedto55YoYinJan-FebbyourestimateFig3thankstoaturnaroundinrealestateinvestmentBycategoryInfrastructureinvestmentgrowtheasedbutitremainsstrongInvestmentintraditionalinfrastructurefieldssuchasutilitiesmanagementtransportationandpostalservicesgrew90YoYdownfrom143YoYgrowthinDecGrowthinbroadinfrastructureinvestmentincludingpowerproductionandsupplyeasedto118YoYAsre-iteratedintheGovernmentWorkReportGWRsteadygrowthofinfrastructureinvestmentisexpectedledbythegreentransitionandindustrialupgradesManufacturinginvestmentgrowthroseslightlyto81YoYthethirdconsecutivemonthlypick-upledbymachineryautosandthehigh-techsectorsHigh-techmanufacturinginvestmentgrewatanaverageof192YoYinJan-FebOurviewisthatindustrialupgradesamidthegreentransitiongrowingindigenoustechnologydigitalizationetcissupportinganewcapexcycleinChinaRealestateinvestmentimprovedastheannualdeclineinthesectoreasedfrom122YoYinDecto57YoYinJan-Febbetterthantheforecastofan85YoYdeclineEffortsonthepartofpolicymakerstostabilizetherealestatesectorincludingthroughgreaterliquiditysupportandmeasurestoensurehousingprojectcompletionshavelentsupporttothesectorOtherpropertyindicatorsimprovedacross-the-boardatthestartof2023Theyear-on-yearcontractioninpropertystartseasedfrom443YoYinDecto94YoYinJan-FebTheslowingpaceoffloorspaceunderconstructionnarrowedfrom482YoYinDecto44YoYPropertysalesalsoimprovedfrom-315YoYinDecto36YoYinJan-FebPropertycompletionsgrewby8YoYinJan-FebthefirstexpansionsinceDec2021thankstopolicymeasurestoensurehousingprojectcompletionsHigh-frequencydatashowsaverageweeklypropertysalesamong30largeChinesecitiesinearlyMarhavesurpassedtheaveragebetween2017and2019supportedbypent-updemandandoptimismparticularlyinlargecitiesFig4HoweverthetrendslowedinrecentweeksEmploymentunexpectedlydeterioratedinJan-FebTheunemploymentratetickedupby01pptto56inFebFig5InthesameperiodtheunemploymentrateamongyoungpeopleinChinapickedup08pptto181thehighestlevelsinceAug2022ThedeterioratingemploymentsituationsuggeststherecoveryinemploymentwilltaketimeHoweveritmayalsoreflectsomemismatchbetweenlabormarketdemandandsupplyatthebeginningoftheeconomicre-openingTheCNYmayhavecomplicatedthismismatchasworkersreturntotheirhometownsafterthreeyearsofCovidCCBISECURITIES2Economics15March2023OurviewThedatapointstoanincipientrecoveryandfurtherimprovementisexpectedTherecoveringpaceofretailsalesremainsbelowthepre-pandemictrendTheGWRhasreiteratedtheimportanceofboostingconsumptionandemploymentPolicymakersarealsolikelytodeliversupportivemeasuressuchasspendingonnewenergyvehiclesNEVBroadimprovementintherealestatesectorislikelytocontinuebecauseoftargetedpolicysupportThestrengthofarecoveryinhousingdemandwilldependonwhetherornottheeconomycontinuestoimproveparticularlyintheareasofhouseholdincomeandemploymentMeanwhiletheGWRreiteratedtheregulatoryfocusonpreventingdisorderlyexpansionIndustry-sideconsolidationislikelytocontinueandweakerplayersremainunderpressureChineseexportsinJan-FebwerebetterthanexpectedastheannualcontractioninexportseasedDespitethelikelyglobalslowdownweexpectnetexportstoremainsolidgiventhechangesweseeinregionalsupplychainsWeexpectsupportivemacropolicystancetocontinuein2023FAcautiousgrowthtargetofaround5suggeststhegovernmentisfocusedondeliveringsteadyandhigh-qualitygrowthratherthanstrongnear-termgrowththatrisksoverstimulatingtheeconomyFurthermorethe2023GWRunveiledasetofslightlymoreexpansionaryfiscalmeasuresthan2022toaidtheeconomicrecoveryContinuedandtargetedfiscalsupportwillhelpliftemploymentandacceleratetheeconomicrecoveryThelocalgovernmentspecialbondquotaincreasedfromRMB365trillionin2022toRMB38trillionin2023Thehigher2023specialbondquotacouldsupportpublicinfrastructureinvestmentintostrategicareasMonetarystancewillstayaccommodativeamidglobaluncertaintyOn15MarthePBoCinjectedRMB281billionviatheone-yearMedium-termLendingFacilityMLFthelargestmonthlyliquidityinjectionoverthepasttwoyearsviatheMLFTheMLFratewasunchangedat275CumulativelythePBoChasinjectedatotalofRMB5485billionintothebankingsystemin1Q2023TheliquidityinjectionviatheMLFreducedthelikelihoodofRRRcutsintheneartermWeexpectthePBoCwillholdinterestratessteadywhileensuringliquidityconditionsremainsupportiveamidsignsofaneconomicrecoveryFollowingstrongcreditexpansioninthefirsttwomonthsofthisyearreadherefordetailsthechancesofanadditionalRRRcutin2023FismuchlowerthanitwasbeforethebeginningoftheyearalthoughitremainsonthetableasapossiblepolicymeasureFig1OutputinelectricmachineryledthereboundFig2RetailsalesgrowthreboundedinJan-FebIPgrowthYoYYoYPharma100ComputerElectronicEquipSpecialEquip70ElectricMachinery40GeneralEquipFood10ChemicalMaterialTextile-20AutomobileFerrousMetalSmelting-50-6-4-20246810121406-2011-2004-2109-2102-2207-2212-22Dec-22Jan-Feb-23TotalGoodsCateringOnlineSourceNBSCCBISSourceNBSCCBISCCBISECURITIES3Economics15March2023Fig3realestateinvestmentreboundednotablyFig4HousingsalesareimprovingFAIbysectorYoY30-Majorcitieshomesales10thdsqmbyweek40600500204003000200-201000-4015913172125293337414549Week0320180320190320200320210320222017-2019average2020ManufacturingRealestate20212022BroadinfraFAIAll2023SourceNBSCCBISSourceNBSCCBISFig5TheunemploymentrateroseunexpectedlyFig6ThecontractioninexportseasedPtYoY652270602060604018502055165014400124530-201040820-400918061903201220092106220105010801110114011701200123JPMorganglobalmfgPMILHSUrbansurveyedunemploymentrateLHSNewexportorderPMILHSUnemploymentrateAged16-24RHSExportgrowth3mmaYoYRHSSourceNBSCCBISSourceCEICCCBISCCBISECURITIES4Economics15March2023AnalystcertificationTheauthorsofthisdocumentherebydeclarethatialloftheviewsexpressedinthisdocumentaccuratelyreflecthisherpersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuersandwerepreparedinanindependentmanneriinopartofanyofhishercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisdocumentandiiiheshereceivesnoinsiderinformationnon-publicprice-sensitiveinformationinrelationtothesubjectsecuritiesorissuerswhichmayinfluencetherecommendationsmadebyhimTheauthorsofthisdocumentfurtherconfirmthatineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociatesasdefinedintheCodeofConductforPersonsLicensedbyorRegisteredwiththeSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionissuedbytheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionhasdealtintradedorwilldealintradethesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentinamannercontrarytohisheroutstandingrecommendationorneitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociateshasdealtinortradedinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisdocumentorwillsodealinortradesuchsecuritieswithin3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisdocumentiineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociatesservesasanofficerofanyofthecompaniescoveredinthisdocumentandiiineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociateshasanyfinancialinterestsinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentDisclaimersThisdocumentispreparedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedisawholly-ownedsubsidiaryofCCBInternationalHoldingsLimitedCCBIHandChinaConstructionBankCorporationCCBInformationhereinhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliablebutCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimiteditsaffiliatesandorsubsidiariescollectivelyCCBISdonotguaranteerepresentandwarranteitherexpressorimplieditscompletenessoraccuracyorappropriatenessforanypurposeoranypersonwhats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