自2022年10月以来，黄金一直处于上升趋势，从1631上涨到2023年2月初的1960，涨幅约20%。这一上升趋势比市场多数人预期的要快一些，而且是在全球市场全面反弹的背景下出现的。
　　黄金有机会回到或超过2075美元的历史高点吗？市场和预测者的观点在这个时间点上有些分歧。
　　预测者的共识观点相对保守；季度和年度预测中值均显示，金价将在1854美元每盎司见顶（现货价格此前已超过该水平）。期货市场则更为乐观，预计黄金上升趋势维持到2026年，并且在2025年内创新高。
　　黄金催化剂
　　有许多正在进行的和潜在的催化剂可能会在中短期内影响黄金。值得关注的潜在催化剂包括:
　　利率和货币政策：利率与黄金有明显的负相关关系，因为黄金是一种非利息收益资产。降息周期可能是金价的积极催化剂，但这预计要到2023-2024年底才能实现。
　　自1981年以来，在过去8次超过3个月的降息周期中，黄金有6次实现了正回报。
　　除了QE2之外，金价在4轮量化宽松中的3轮中出现大幅上涨。
　　通胀：黄金是一种不完美的通胀对冲工具，美国CPI和黄金价格表现出一种松散的正相关关系。
　　2023年通货膨胀将趋于下降，但仍将维持在相对较高的水平。
　　通胀预期比通胀本身更接近黄金。通胀预期风险大体平衡。
　　美元：美元走软历来支持金价。我们预计2023年美元将走弱。
　　自1981年以来，总共有16年美元指数走弱，其中13年金价上涨，年平均回报率为13.6%。
　　相比之下，在美元指数走强的26年里，黄金价格有17年下跌，平均年回报率为-2.1%。
　　中国需求复苏：作为全球最大的黄金市场，2022年中国黄金需求疲软对金价不利，金价应该很快就会逆转。
　　黄金需求可能将受益于消费支持政策和总体宏观反弹。
　　央行需求：央行黄金需求与金价之间的历史相关性较弱，表明央行的购买可以支撑需求，但在历史上不是金价走势的主要驱动因素。但在2022年，央行需求升至总需求的24%，超过过去10年平均比率的一倍。在这种水平，央行需求对黄金价格的影响力将变得更加重要。
　　避险需求：从历史上看，黄金通常在波动性和不确定性上升的时期表现良好。
　　2023年地缘政治风险仍然较高，可能成为金价上涨的催化剂。
　　历史上的冲突显示，黄金价格在冲突爆发的起点的反应往往较大，但影响通胀也是短暂的。
　　在短期内，市场可能会遇到阻力，并随着黄金向历史高位靠近而出现一些回调。超预期鹰派的进展（例如通胀超预期）可能是黄金回调的催化剂，也可能创造好的加仓机会。根据历史经验，2022年初以来观察到的黄金与股票之间的高度正相关也不会长期持续。
　　从中长期的角度来看，上述因素可能会决定金价能否达到历史新高。在基准情景下，宏观大环境有利于金价在未来几年创出新高，本轮最终的周期峰值可能出现在美联储在2023年底或2024年转向降息之后。
　　

研究报告全文：策略2023年2月9日全球策略如何寻找黄金机遇黄金催化剂的分析及回顾自2022年10月以来黄金一直处于上升趋自1981年以来总共有16年美元指势从1631上涨到2023年2月初的1960数走弱其中13年金价上涨年平涨幅约20这一上升趋势比市场多数人预期均回报率为136的要快一些而且是在全球市场全面反弹的背相比之下在美元指数走强的26年景下出现的里黄金价格有17年下跌平均年宋林85239118267黄金有机会回到或超过2075美元的历史高点回报率为-21lynnsongccbintlcom吗市场和预测者的观点在这个时间点上有些中国需求复苏作为全球最大的黄金市分歧场2022年中国黄金需求疲软对金价不预测者的共识观点相对保守季度和年度预测利金价应该很快就会逆转中值均显示金价将在1854美元每盎司见顶黄金需求可能将受益于消费支持政策现货价格此前已超过该水平期货市场和总体宏观反弹赵文利则更为乐观预计黄金上升趋势维持到2026央行需求央行黄金需求与金价之间的历85239118279年并且在2025年内创新高cliffzhaoccbintlcom史相关性较弱表明央行的购买可以支撑需求但在历史上不是金价走势的主要驱黄金催化剂动因素但在2022年央行需求升至总有许多正在进行的和潜在的催化剂可能会在中需求的24超过过去10年平均比率的一倍在这种水平央行需求对黄金价格短期内影响黄金值得关注的潜在催化剂包括的影响力将变得更加重要利率和货币政策利率与黄金有明显的负相关关系因为黄金是一种非利息收益资避险需求从历史上看黄金通常在波动产降息周期可能是金价的积极催化剂性和不确定性上升的时期表现良好但这预计要到2023-2024年底才能实现2023年地缘政治风险仍然较高可能成为金价上涨的催化剂自1981年以来在过去8次超过3个月的降息周期中黄金有6次实现历史上的冲突显示黄金价格在冲突了正回报爆发的起点的反应往往较大但影响通胀也是短暂的除了QE2之外金价在4轮量化宽松中的3轮中出现大幅上涨在短期内市场可能会遇到阻力并随着黄金向历史高位靠近而出现一些回调超预期鹰派通胀黄金是一种不完美的通胀对冲工的进展例如通胀超预期可能是黄金回调的具美国CPI和黄金价格表现出一种松散催化剂也可能创造好的加仓机会根据历史的正相关关系经验2022年初以来观察到的黄金与股票之2023年通货膨胀将趋于下降但仍间的高度正相关也不会长期持续将维持在相对较高的水平从中长期的角度来看上述因素可能会决定金通胀预期比通胀本身更接近黄金通价能否达到历史新高在基准情景下宏观大胀预期风险大体平衡环境有利于金价在未来几年创出新高本轮最美元美元走软历来支持金价我们预计终的周期峰值可能出现在美联储在2023年底2023年美元将走弱或2024年转向降息之后建银国际证券1STRATEGY9February2023AnalystcertificationsTheauthorsofthisdocumentherebydeclarethatialloftheviewsexpressedinthisdocumentaccuratelyreflecthisherpersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuersandwerepreparedinanindependentmanneriinopartofanyofhishercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisdocumentandiiiheshereceivesnoinsiderinformationnon-publicprice-sensitiveinformationinrelationtothesubjectsecuritiesorissuerswhichmayinfluencetherecommendationsmadebyhimTheauthorsofthisdocumentfurtherconfirmthatineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociatesasdefinedintheCodeofConductforPersonsLicensedbyorRegisteredwiththeSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionissuedbytheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionhasdealtintradedorwilldealintradethesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentinamannercontrarytohisheroutstandingrecommendationorneitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociateshasdealtinortradedinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisdocumentorwillsodealinortradesuchsecuritieswithin3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisdocumentiineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociatesservesasanofficerofanyofthecompaniescoveredinthisdocumentandiiineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociateshasanyfinancialinterestsinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentDisclaimersThisdocumentispreparedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedisawholly-ownedsubsidiaryofCCBInternationalHoldingsLimitedCCBIHandChinaConstructionBankCorporationCCBInformationhereinhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliablebutCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimiteditsaffiliatesandorsubsidiariescollectivelyCCBISdonotguaranteerepresentandwarranteitherexpressorimplieditscompletenessoraccuracyorappropriatenessforanypurposeoranypersonwhatsoeverOpinionsandestimatesconstituteourjudgmentasofthedateofthisdocumentandaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCCBISseekstoupdateitsresearchasappropriatebutvariousregulationsmaypreventitfromdoingsoBesidescertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasisthelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateaccordingtotheanalystsjudgmentForecastsprojectionsandvaluationsareinherentlyspeculativeinnatureandmaybebasedonanumberofcontingenciesReadersshouldnotregardtheinclusionofanyforecastsprojectionsandvaluationsinthisdocumentasarepresentationorwarrantybyoronbehalfofCCBISthattheseforecastsprojectionsorvaluationsortheirunderlyingassumptionswillbeachievedInvestmentinvolvesriskandpastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresultsInformationinthisdocumentisnotintendedtoconstituteorbeconstruedaslegalfinancialaccountingbusinessinvestmenttaxoranyprofessionaladviceforanyprospectiveinvestorsandshouldnotberelieduponinthatregardThisdocumentisforinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbetreatedasanofferorsolicitationforthepurchaseorsaleofanyproductsinvestmentssecuritiestradingstrategiesorfinancialinstrumentsofanykindinanyjurisdictionCCBISmakesnorepresentationsontheavailabilityofthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentorrelatedinvestmenttotherecipientsThesecuritiesdescribedhereinmaynotbeeligibleforsaleinalljurisdictionsortocertaincategoriesofinvestorsNeitherCCBISnoranyotherpersonsacceptanyliabilitywhatsoeverforanylossordamageswhetherdirectindirectincidentalexemplarycompensatorypunitivespecialorconsequentialarisingfromanyuseofthisdocumentoritscontentsorotherwisearisinginconnectiontherewithSecuritiesfinancialinstrumentsorstrategiesmentionedhereinmaynotbesuitableforallinvestorsTheopinionsandrecommendationshereindonottakeintoaccountprospectiveinvestorsfinancialcircumstancesinvestmentobjectivesorparticularneedsandarenotintendedasrecommendationsofparticularsecuritiesfinancialinstrumentsorstrategiestoanyprospectiveinvestorsTherecipientsofthisdocumentshouldconsiderthisdocumentasonlyasinglefactorinmarkingtheirinvestmentdecisionandshallbes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