研究报告全文：Economics15December2022oCCBISECURITIESRESEARCHChinaEconomicsUpdateSofterNovdatabutasustainedrecoveryahead中国经济评论11月数据偏弱但未来持续恢复可期Weaker-than-expectedNoveconomicdatamostlyreflectsasurgeinCoviddisruptionstoconsumptionandtheindustrialsectorsbeforethelatestrelaxationinlateNovTheslowdownLiCuiinproductionwasparticularlynotableinthehightechandautosectorsasCovidcontrols85239118274weretightenedinNovlikelycontributingtothesofttradedataWeaknessinconsumptioncuiliccbintlcomandrealestatedeepenedOnapositivenotecorporateandpublicinvestmentwassolidpartlyoffsettingsharpdecelerationelsewhereKevinXieSurgingCovidcasesarelikelytohinderanyrecoveryingrowthoverthenexttwomonths85239118241butasustainedrecoveryislikelytoemergeearlynextyearTheinternationalexperiencekevinxieccbintlcomsuggestsrisingcasesmaydampenarecoveryattheinitialstageofre-openingMeanwhiletrafficflowshavepickedupinGuangzhouthecenteroftheearlieroutbreakpointingtothestartofarecoveryinactivityseveralweeksaftertheeasinginCovidrestrictionsWeexpecteconomicgrowthtoriseto54nextyearMacropoliciestoremainsupportiveWeexpectcontinuedpolicyaccommodationwithasupportivefiscalstancenextyearWhileliquidityislikelytostayabundanttheprospectsofaneconomicrecoveryarelikelytodissuadethePBoCfrommakinganyfurtherratecutsThegovernmentssupportivestancetowardsthepropertysectorislikelytocontinueinlightofthesluggishsalesinourview11月经济数据不及预期凸显在各地解封以前新冠疫情对消费和生产的影响高科技和汽车行业生产明显走弱显示疫情封控对供应链的冲击也可能导致了贸易数据的疲软消费和房地产行业的放缓加剧积极的一面是企业和公共部门投资保持稳健部分抵消了其他方面投资的快速下滑新冠感染病例的攀升意味着未来1-2个月经济增长仍有下行压力但预计明年年初开始经济开始持续修复国际经验表明在疫后重启初期病例的上升可能会干扰经济的复苏但数据显示部分城市已开始回暖广州在11月爆发了新一波的疫情随着疫情防控的放松广州的交通流量开始逐步复苏我们预计明年经济增速将达到54预计宏观政策将保持支持取态我们预计明年政策将继续保持宽松促增长的积极财政政策继续发力央行预计保持流动性充裕但经济前景好转可能会限制其进一步降息由于销售持续疲软预计政府对房地产行业的支持立场将继续AnalystcertificationsandotherdisclosuresonlastpageThisresearchreporthasbeencreatedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLtd1Economics15December2022SoftNovdataacrosstheboardIndustrialproductionIPcontracted03MoMto22YoYinNovwellbelowtheconsensusforecastofa37YoYriseWeaker-than-expectedIPdatareflectsCoviddisruptionstomanufacturingMiningoutputreboundedinNovfromOctscyclicallowHoweverCoviduncertaintyandtheimpositionofenvironmentalrestrictionsinwintersuggestsminingoutputmayremainsoftintheneartermManufacturingproductiondeceleratedforthesecondconsecutivemonthto20YoYinNovThebroad-basedslowdownacrossmajormanufacturingindustrieshighlightstheimpactoftighterCovidcontrolsinNovbeforeaneasinginCovidpolicyFig1InparticularthelockdownattheworldslargestiPhonefactoryinearlyNovweighedheavilyonproductioninrelatedindustriesasoutputofcomputerandelectronicequipmentcontracted11YoYinNovafterhavinggrownnearly10YoYeverymonthsinceMar2021Fig1Electricityandutilityproductioncontracted15YoYreflectingsoftdemandfromindustrialsectorsamidCoviddisruptionsThecontractioninretailsalesworsenedfrom05YoYinOctto59YoYinNovreflectingCoviddisruptionsandpoorsentimentCateringspendingweakenedfurtherinNovcontracting84YoYFig2Theextensionoftaxrebatesonpurchasesofnewenergyvehiclesuntil31Dec2023hassupportedstronggrowthincarsalessinceJun2022yetautosalesneverthelessdeceleratedsharplyfrompreviousmonthsGrowthinonlinesalesslowedto39YoYinpartreflectingweaksalesduringtheDoubleElevenshoppingfestivalthisyearAdjustingforpriceincreasesweestimatethecontractioninrealretailsalesacceleratedto76YoYinNovFixedAssetInvestmentFAIgrowthslowedsharplyto08YoYinNovbyourestimateFig3becauseofacceleratingfallsinrealestateinvestmentBycategoryInfrastructureinvestmentgrowthremainssolidhavingplayedakeyroleinstabilizinginvestmentgrowthInvestmentgrowthintraditionalinfrastructurefieldssuchasutilitymanagementtransportationandpostalservicesrose106YoYinNovthethird-fastestpaceofgrowthsinceMar2021Growthinbroadinfrastructureinvestmentacceleratedto136YoYasinvestmentintheutilitiessectorsuchaspowergenerationandtransmissiongrew25YoYinNovpointingtosolidinvestmentamidthegreentransitionManufacturinginvestmentgrowtheasedto62YoYinNovdemonstratingresilienceamidthemacroslowdownRecentcreditdatashowedanimprovementinmedium-tolong-termbanklendingtocorporatesGovernmentpolicywillcontinuetofacilitateindustrialupgradesamidthegreentransitiongrowingindigenoustechnologydigitalizationetcconsistentwithourviewofthenewcapexcycleinChinanotwithstandingmacrochallengesThefallinrealestateinvestmentacceleratedto20YoYinNovconsistentwithcontinuedsluggishnessinthesectorPropertyindicatorsweakenedacrosstheboardinNovThecontractioninpropertystartsandcompletionswidenedfrom35YoYand9to508YoYand20respectivelywhilepropertysalesfell33YoYTheaveragenewhomepriceamong70largecitiescontractedby02MoMinNovthe15thmonthlycontractioninarowPropertypriceweaknesswasmoreprofoundinlower-tiercitiesWeeklypropertysalesamong30largecitiestrackedsidewaysatrecentbottomsFig4althoughrecenteffortsbytheregulatorhaveliftedsentimenttowardspropertydevelopersWeexpectsomeimprovementinpropertyactivitynextyearastheeconomicrecoveryunfoldsaftertherelaxationofCovidrestrictionshoweverprogressislikelytostartafteradelayofafewmonthsThelabormarketsoftenedduetoCoviduncertaintyUnemploymenttickedup02pptto57inNovFig5Despiteasmalldeclinetheunemploymentrateamongyoungpeopleremainselevatedat171OtherdataTradedatasurprisedtothedownsideinNovInUSdollartermsexportgrowthfell87YoYthemostsince1Q2020andweakerthantheconsensusforecastofa39YoYdeclinelikelyreflectingsupplydisruptionsespeciallyinthecaseofhightechproductsImportscontracted106YoYCCBISECURITIES2Economics15December2022whichwassofterthanexpectationsThetradesurpluseasedslightlytoUS70bneverthelessexceedingexpectationsExportstomajordevelopedmarketsslowedsharplyledbya254YoYdeclineinexportsdestinedfortheUSDespitethisnotableslowdownexportstoASEANcontinuedtogrowatapaceof52YoYinNovASEANsshareofChinastotaltradecontinuestoclimbastheregionalblocstrengthenseconomictiesHeadlineinflationeasedfrom21YoYinOctto16YoYinNovWeaker-than-expectedheadlineinflationwasdrivenbyeasingfoodinflationdown33ppttojust37YoYinNovCoreinflationexcludingfoodandenergywasunchangedat06YoYforthethirdstraightmonthSoftdomesticdemanddisruptedbyCovidcontinuedtoweighoninflationintheneartermHoweverweexpectasequentialpick-upininflationonceeconomicre-openinggainstractionanddomesticdemandrecoversin2023FTotalSocialFinancingTSFgrowthrateslowed03pptto100inNovSlightlysoftercreditexpansionhighlightsthecontinuedimpactofCovidandthestrugglingpropertysectorMedium-tolong-termloanstohouseholdsaproxyforhousingmortgagesimprovedfromOctbutremainedwellbelowthelevellastNovEncouragingmedium-tolong-termbanklendingtothecorporatesectorpickedupsuggestingsupportivepolicycontinuestodrivecredittoprioritizedindustrialsectorsOurviewWeaker-than-expectedNovdatapointstoanacceleratedeconomicslowdownamidthecurrentwaveofCovidoutbreaksthatbeganinearlyOctConsumptionhasbeenpersistentlyweakandinNovCoviddisruptionsspreadtotheindustrialsectorscausingfactoriestoshutdownandsupplychainstoseizeupSwiftimplementationofchangestohealthpoliciesPolicymakersquicklymovedtorelaxCovidrestrictionsinresponsetomacrochallengesAftertheannouncementoftheinitial20measurestooptimizeCovidcontrolsChinashealthauthoritiesandlocalgovernmentsloosenedrestrictionsIncertaincitiesresidentsarenolongerrequiredtosubmittocentralizedquarantinefacilitiesortakefrequentPCRtestsHealthauthoritiesrecentlyannouncedtheywouldstoppublishingstatisticsonasymptomaticcasesTheauthoritieshaveshiftedfocustorampingupvaccinationratesforvulnerablegroupsandincreasinghospitalcapacityasdailynewCovidcasescontinuetomountTheStateCouncilhasurgedlocalgovernmentstospeedupvaccinationoftheelderlysettingatargetof90forpeopleover80yearsoldtohavereceivedatleastonedosebytheendofJan2023InadditionhealthauthoritieshavecalledforanincreaseinthenumberofhospitalICUbedsinanticipationofarisingnumberofseverecasesCaixinreportedthatGuangzhouauthoritiesareupgradingsomemakeshifthospitalstodesignatedhospitalsdedicatedtotreatingCovidpatientswithmoderatesymptomsandseniorswithexistinghealthconditionsAsurgeincasenumberswillbethekeyheadwindtogrowthoverthenexttwomonthsTheexperienceofothercountriesthatre-openedshowsthatpeoplepreferstayinghometoavoidcontractingthevirusattheinitialstageofre-openingDatafromothercountriessuggeststhenumberofworkersthatwillcomedownwithCovidisabouttoincreaserapidlywhichmaycausetemporarylaborshortagespotentiallyweighingonbusinessandfactoryoperationsandevendisruptingsupplychainsHoweverweexpecttheimpactofsurgingCovidcasesontheeconomywillbetemporaryandgrowthwillbegintorecoverearlynextyearTheinternationalexperiencesuggeststhattheeconomywillembarkonasustainedrecoveryinthetwomonthsafteropeningupDailynumberofpassengersatmetrostationsinGuangzhouhasgraduallyrecoveredonthebackofCovidpolicyeasingFig6RecentrelaxationinCovidcontrolsbodeswellforasustainedeconomicrecoveryinChinanextyearinlinewiththethemeweoutlinedinour2023OutlookAccommodativemacropoliciesnextyearOnthefiscalsideChinasbudgetdeficitislikelytobesetaround3ofGDPTargetedsupporttoprioritizedareasnotablythepropertysectorwillcontinueinourviewAsameansofsupportingpublicinvestmentandeconomicgrowthweexpectthelocalgovernmentspecialbondissuancequotawillrisetoaroundRMB4tin2023FOnthemonetaryfrontaftercuttingtheRequiredReserveRatioRRRby25bpon25NovtodaythePBoCinjectedRMB150bviatheOne-yearMedium-termLendingFacilityMLFonanetbasisTheMLFrateremainedunchangedat275WeexpectthePBoCtoleaveliquidityconditionssupportivewhilemaintainingcurrentpolicyinterestratesintheneartermFurtherRRRcutsnextyeararestilllikelyinourviewCCBISECURITIES3Economics15December2022InthemeantimetheupcomingCentralEconomicWorkConferenceCEWCwillshedlightonthepolicyagendafor2023Fig1CovidimpactedmanufacturingindustriesFig2RetailsalesgrowthweakenedmorethanexpectedIPgrowthYoYYoYPharma100ComputerElectronicEquip70SpecialEquipElectricMachinery40GeneralEquipFood10ChemicalMaterial-20TextileAutomobile-50FerrousMetalSmelting09-2012-2003-2106-2109-2112-2103-2206-2209-22-100102006-20Oct-22Nov-22TotalGoodsCateringOnlineSourceNBSCCBISSourceNBSCCBISFig3InfrastructureandmanufacturinginvestmentFig4HousingsalestrackedsidewaysremainssupportiveFAIbysectorYoY30-Majorcitieshomesales10thdsqmbyweek40600500204000300200-20100-40003201803201903202003202103202215913172125293337414549ManufacturingRealestateWeekBroadinfraFAIAll2017-2019average2020SourceNBSCCBISSourceNBSCCBISCCBISECURITIES4Economics15December2022Fig5TheunemploymentratetickedupinNovFig6MetrotrafficliftedfromrecentlowsinGuangzhouGuangzhou7-daymovingaveragemnpersons65221220601018551681450612454104082010200918021907191219052003210821012206221122UrbansurveyedunemploymentrateLHS0101290230043006310831103112UnemploymentrateAged16-24RHS2019202020212022SourceNBSCCBISSourceCEICCCBISCCBISECURITIES5Economics15December2022AnalystcertificationTheauthorsofthisdocumentherebydeclarethatialloftheviewsexpressedinthisdocumentaccuratelyreflecthisherpersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuersandwerepreparedinanindependentmanneriinopartofanyofhishercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisdocumentandiiiheshereceivesnoinsiderinformationnon-publicprice-sensitiveinformationinrelationtothesubjectsecuritiesorissuerswhichmayinfluencetherecommendationsmadebyhimTheauthorsofthisdocumentfurtherconfirmthatineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociatesasdefinedintheCodeofConductforPersonsLicensedbyorRegisteredwiththeSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionissuedbytheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionhasdealtintradedorwilldealintradethesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentinamannercontrarytohisheroutstandingrecommendationorneitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociateshasdealtinortradedinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisdocumentorwillsodealinortradesuchsecuritieswithin3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisdocumentiineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociatesservesasanofficerofanyofthecompaniescoveredinthisdocumentandiiineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociateshasanyfinancialinterestsinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentDisclaimersThisdocumentispreparedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedisawholly-ownedsubsidiaryofCCBInternationalHoldingsLimitedCCBIHandChinaConstructionBankCorporationCCBInformationhereinhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliablebutCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimiteditsaffiliatesandorsubsidiariescollectivelyCCBISdonotguaranteerepresentandwarranteitherexpressorimplieditscompletenessoraccuracyorappropriatenessforanypurposeoranypersonwhatsoeverOpinionsandestimatesconstituteourjudgmentasofthedateofthisdocumentandaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCCBISseekstoupdateitsresearchasappropriatebutvariousregulationsmaypreventitfromdoingsoBesidescertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasisthelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateaccordingtotheanalystsjudgmentForecastsprojectionsandvaluationsareinherentlyspeculativeinnatureandmaybebasedonanumberofcontingenciesReadersshouldnotregardtheinclusionofanyforecastsprojectionsandvaluationsinthisdocumentasarepresentationorwarrantybyoronbehalfofCCBISthattheseforecastsprojectionsorvaluationsortheirunderlyingassumptionswillbeachievedInvestmentinvolvesriskandpastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresultsInformationinthisdocumentisnotintendedtoconstituteorbeconstruedaslegalfinancialaccountingbusinessinvestmenttaxoranyprofessionaladviceforanyprospectiveinvestorsandshouldnotberelieduponinthatregardThisdocumentisforinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbetreatedasanofferorsolicitationforthepurchaseorsaleofanyproductsinvestmentssecuritiestradingstrategiesorfinancialinstrumentsofanykindinanyjurisdictionCCBISmakesnorepresentationsontheavailabilityofthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentorrelatedinvestmenttotherecipientsThesecuritiesdescribedhereinmaynotbeeligibleforsaleinalljurisdictionsortocertaincategoriesofinvestorsNeitherCCBISnoranyotherpersonsacceptanyliabilitywhatsoeverforanylossordamageswhetherdirectindirectincidentalexemplarycompensatorypunitivespecialorconsequentialarisingfromanyuseofthisdocumentoritscontentsorotherwisearisinginconnectiontherewithSecuritiesfinancialinstrumentsorstrategiesmentionedhereinmaynotbesuitableforallinvestorsTheopinionsandrecommendationshereindonottakeintoaccountprospectiveinvestorsfinancialcircumstancesinvestmentobjectivesorparticularneedsandarenotintendedasrecommendationsofparticularsecuritiesfinancialinstrumentsorstrategiestoanyprospectiveinvestorsTherecipientsofthisdocumentshouldconsiderthisdocumentasonlyasinglefactorinmarkingtheirinvestmentdecisionandshallbesolelyresponsibleformakingtheirownindependentinvestigationofthebusinessfinancialconditionandprospectsofcompaniesreferredtointhisdocumentReadersarecautionedthatithepriceandvalueofsecuritiesreferredtointhisdocumentandtheincomederivedfromthemmayfluctuateiipastperformanceisnotaguidetofutureperformanceiiianyanalysisratingsandrecommendationsmadeinthisdocumentareintendedforlong-termatleastfor12monthsandisnotlinkedtoanear-termassessmentofthelikelyperformanceofthesecuritiesorcompaniesinquestionInanyeventfutureactualresultsmaydiffermateriallyfromthosesetforthinanyforward-lookingstatementshereinivfuturereturnsarenotguaranteedandalossoforiginalcapitalmayoccurandvfluctuationsinexchangeratesmayadverselyaffectthevaluepriceorincomeofanysecurityorrelatedinstrumentreferredtointhisdocumentItshouldbenotedthatthisdocumentcoversonlythosesecuritiesorcompaniesasspecifiedhereinanddoesnotextendtoanyderivativeinstrumentsthereofthevalueofwhichmaybeaffectedbymanyfactorsandmaynotcorrespondwiththevalueoftheunderlyingsecuritiesTradingintheseinstrumentsisconsideredriskyandarenotsuitableforallinvestorsWhileallreasonablecarehasbeentakentoensurethatthefactsstatedhereinareaccurateandthattheforward-lookingstatementsopinionsandexpectationscontainedhereinarebasedonfairandreasonableassumptionsCCBIShasnotbeenabletoverifyindependentlysuchfactsorassumptionsandCCBISshallnotbeliablefortheaccuracycompletenessorcorrectnessthereofandnorepresentationorwarrantyismadeexpressorimpliedinthisregardAllpricingreferredtointhisdocumentisasofthecloseoflocalmarketforthesecuritiesdiscussedunlessotherwisestatedandforinformationpurposesonlyThereisnorepresentationthatanytransactioncanorcouldhavebeeneffectedatthosepricesandanypricesdonotnecessarilyreflectCCBISinternalbooksandrecordsortheoreticalmodel-basedvaluationsandmaybebasedoncertainassumptionsDifferentassumptionscouldresultinsubstantiallydifferentresultsAnystatementswhichmaybecontainedhereinattributedtoathird-partyrepresentCCBISinterpretationofthedatainformationandoropinionsprovidedbythatthirdpartyeitherpubliclyorthroughasubscriptionserviceandsuchuseandinterpretationhavenotbeenreviewedorendorsedbythethirdpartyReproductionanddistributionofthesethirdpartycontentsinanyformisprohibitedexceptwiththepriorwrittenconsentofsuchthirdpartyTherecipientsmustmaketheirownassessmentsoftherelevanceaccuracyandadequacyoftheinformationcontainedinthisdocumentandmakesuchindependentinvestigationastheymayconsidernecessaryorappropriateforsuchpurposeRecipientsshouldseekindependentlegalfinancialaccountingbusinessinvestmentandortaxadviceiftheyhaveanydoubtaboutthecontentsofthisdocumentandsatisfythemselvespriortomakinganyinvestmentdecisionthatsuchinvestmentisinlinewiththeirowninvestmentobjectivesandhorizonsUseofhyperlinkstootherinternetsitesorresourcesifanyasreferredtointhisdocumentisatusersownriskTheyareprovidedsolelyforthepurposeofconvenienceandinformationandthecontentoftheseinternetsitesorresourcesdoesnotinanywayformpartofthisdocumentThecontentsaccuracyopinionexpressedandotherlinksprovidedatthesesitesarenotinvestigatedverifiedmonitoredorendorsedbyCCBISCCBISexpresslydisclaimsanyresponsibilityforanddoesnotguaranteerepresentandwarranteitherexpressorimpliedthecompletenessaccuracyappropriatenessavailabilityorsecurityofinformationfoundonthesewebsitesUsersofthesewebsitesaresolelyresponsibleformakingallenquiriesinvestigationandriskassessmentbeforeproceedingwithanyonlineorofflineaccessortransactionwithanyofthesethirdpartiesAllactivitiesconductedbyusersviaoratthesewebsitesareattheirownriskCCBISdoesnotguaranteethesecurityofanyinformationusersmayforwardorberequestedtoprovidetoanythirdpartiesviathesewebsitesCCBISECURITIES6Economics15December2022UsersaredeemedtohaveirrevocablywaivedanyclaimsagainstCCBISforanylossordamagesufferedasaresultofanyaccesstoorinteractionwithanyofthesewebsitesUponrequestCCBISmayprovidespecializedresearchproductsorservicestocertaincustomersfocusingontheprospectsforspecificsecuritiesascomparedwithothercoveredsecuritiesovervaryingtimehorizonsorunderdifferingmarketconditionsWhiletheviewsexpressedinthesesituationsmaynotalwaysbedirectionallyconsistentwiththelong-termviewsexpressedintheanalystspublishedresearchCCBIShasproceduresinplacetopreventselectivedisclosureandwillupdatetherelevantreaderswhenourviewshaschangedCCBISalsohasproceduresinplacetoidentifyandmanagepotentialconflictsofinterestthatmayariseinconnectionwithitsresearchbusinessandservicesChineseWallproceduresarealsoinplacetoensurethatanyconfidentialandorpricesensitiveinformationisproperlyhandledCCBISwilluseitsbestendeavorstocomplywiththerelevantlawsandregulationsinthisrespectNeverthelesstherecipientsshouldbeawarethatCCBCCBIStheiraffiliatesandortheirofficersdirectorsandemployeesmaydobusinesswiththeissuersofthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentincludinginvestmentbankingbusinessordirectinvestmentbusinessormayholdinterestinandorlateraddordisposesuchsecuritiesorinanyrelatedinvestmentforthemselvesandoronbehalfoftheirclientsfromtimetotimeAsaresultinvestorsshouldbeawarethatCCBISmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisdocumentandCCBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofFurthertheinformationcontainedhereinmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsexpressedbyotherassociatesofCCBISorothermembersoftheCCBorCCBIHgroupofcompaniesWherethisdocumentreferstoanyproductsinvestmentssecuritiesfinancialinstrumentsorindustrysectorsthisisfortheinformationoftheinstitutionalandprofessionalcustomersofCCBISonlyandthisdocumentshouldnotbedistributedtoretailcustomersThisdocumentisnotdirectedatyouifCCBISisprohibitedorrestrictedbyanylegislationorregulationinanyjurisdictionfrommakingitavailabletoyouYoushouldsatisfyyourselfbeforereadingitthatCCBISispermittedtoprovidere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