1月的信贷增长反映了经济逐步复苏和支持性政策取态。1月社融同比增速放缓至9.4%。但创纪录的人民币贷款和强劲的中长期企业贷款令人鼓舞，与支持性政策取态和修复中的商业情绪相符。相比之下，住房抵押贷款需求依然疲软。就业和居民收入的恢复仍需时日。
　　我们预计宽松的政策导向将促使信贷增长在今年温和回升。预计政府债券发行将在2023年提速。在经济持续复苏的情况下，我们预计央行将确保流动性充裕，同时维持当前政策利率不变。央行也可能在2023年进一步下调存款准备金率来支持信贷增长，促进经济转型，并满足政府的融资需求。

研究报告全文：Economics12February2023CCBISECURITIESRESEARCHChinaEconomicsUpdateJanuarybankloansbeatexpectationsconsistentwithsupportivepolicystance中国经济评论1月银行贷款增速超预期与支持性政策取态相符JanuarycreditgrowthreflectstheslowrecoveryintheeconomyandasupportiveKevinXiepolicystanceGrowthofoutstandingTotalSocialFinancingTSFslowedto8523911624194YoYinJanHoweverrecord-highRMBloansandstrongmedium-tolong-termkevinxieccbintlcomcorporatelendingwasencouragingconsistentwiththesupportivepolicystanceandsomerecoveryinbusinesssentimentBycontrastdemandforhousingLiCuimortgagesremainssoftandarecoveryinemploymentandhouseholdincomeislikelytotakemoretime85239118274cuiliccbintlcomWeexpecttheaccommodativepolicystancewillleadtoamodestuptickincreditgrowththisyearWeexpectgovernmentbondissuancetoacceleratein2023FThePBoCislikelytomaintainampleliquidityconditionswhileleavingcurrentpolicyinterestratesunchangedamidasustainedrecoveryFurtherRRRcutsin2023Fremainlikelyandwouldsupportcreditgrowthfacilitateinvestmentintoprioritizedareasandinourviewwouldmeetthegovernmentsfinancingneeds1月的信贷增长反映了经济逐步复苏和支持性政策取态1月社融同比增速放缓至94但创纪录的人民币贷款和强劲的中长期企业贷款令人鼓舞与支持性政策取态和修复中的商业情绪相符相比之下住房抵押贷款需求依然疲软就业和居民收入的恢复仍需时日我们预计宽松的政策导向将促使信贷增长在今年温和回升预计政府债券发行将在2023年提速在经济持续复苏的情况下我们预计央行将确保流动性充裕同时维持当前政策利率不变央行也可能在2023年进一步下调存款准备金率来支持信贷增长促进经济转型并满足政府的融资需求AnalystcertificationsandotherdisclosuresonlastpageThisresearchreporthasbeencreatedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLtd1Economics12February2023NewRMBloansbeatexpectationsOutstandingTSFgrew94YoYinJan202302pptslowerthanDec2022ThedriverofaRMB598tincreaseinTSFinJanwasrecordRMBloansOntheotherhandcontractingshadowbankingandslowingnetbondissuanceincludingcorporateandgovernmentborrowingdraggedTSFgrowthOthernotableeconomicdevelopmentsincludethefollowingNewRMBloansincreasedbyRMB493twhichwasstrongerthantheconsensusexpectationofRMB400tGrowthinRMBloanstockacceleratedto113YoYdrivenbystrongmedium-tolong-termMLlendingtocorporatesRMB37tinJan2023versusRMB28tinJan2022BycontrastMLloanstohouseholdsaproxyforhousingmortgagesremainedweakconsistentwithsoftpropertysalesOutstandingcorporatebondsgrewjust19YoYinJantheslowestpaceonrecordSurgingbondissuancecostsweighedoncorporatebondissuanceSentimenthasbeenbuoyedbythegovernmentsoptimizedCovidpolicypromptingrotationawayfrombondsleadingtoasharpsell-offinonshorebondmarketsTotalRMBloansandcorporatebondswhichrepresentcredittotheprivatesectorrose106YoYinJanandhaveheldsteadysinceDec2022GovernmentborrowingincludingoutstandingCGBandLGBgrew129YoY05pptslowerthanthepaceinDec2021TheimprovingeconomicoutlooklikelydiscouragedlocalgovernmentsfromacceleratingbondissuanceTighterregulationsaroundlocalgovernmentfinancingandspecialbondissuanceweremaintainedtobalanceelevateddebtriskhowevertheyalsocontributedtotheslowingpaceinlocalgovernmentspecialbondissuanceShadowbankingentrustedtrustbillscontracted37YoYDespiteremainingadragonTSFgrowththepaceofcontractionhasbeenslowingItsshareoftotalTSFhasshrunktojust51OurviewCreditdatainJanisconsistentwiththesupportivepolicystanceandeconomicrecoveryinrecentmonthsStrongRMBloansandparticularlystrongMLcorporatelendingoverrecentmonthspartlyreflectincreasedlendingtopropertydevelopersThequickexitfromCovidpolicyandarenewedfocusongrowthbytheCentralEconomicWorkConferencehavealsoboostedsentimentandborrowingdemandWeexpectdomesticdemandnotablyconsumptionandprivateinvestmenttoimprovein2023FAsustainedeconomicrecoveryhasbeguninourviewashighfrequencydatacontinuestopointtorisingtrafficandimprovementinsentimentAccordingtoChinasMinistryofCultureandTourismdomestictouristtripsoverChineseNewYearholidayincreased231YoYin2023reaching886ofthe2019figurejustpriortothepandemicMeanwhilesluggishhouseholdmortgageswereconsistentwithsoftpropertysalesMediareportsindicateagrowingnumberoflocalgovernmentshaverelaxedadministrativemeasuresinordertosupporthousingdemandBanksinsomecitieshaveloweredmortgageratesInourviewameaningfulrecoveryinemploymentincomeandeventuallyhouseholdconfidencewilltaketimeWeexpectthepropertysectorwillimprovesequentiallyin2023FamidcontinuedtargetedpolicyeasingbutoverallpropertysaleswilllikelyregisterasmallYoYdeclinefrom2022SupportivemacropolicystancetoremaininplacesupportingamodestuptickincreditgrowththisyearTheCentralEconomicWorkConferencere-iteratedthatitspolicymakersintendtomaintainaproactivefiscalpolicyin2023inaidofasustainedeconomicreboundAsdiscussedinour2023OutlookweexpectChinasbudgetdeficittoincreaseto3in2023FSpecialbondissuancehasbeenslowinlate2022andintoearly2023Howeverweexpectthepaceofgovernmentissuancetopickupin2023F2023slocalgovernmentspecialbondissuancequotawillbeannouncedattheNationalPeoplesCongressWelookforittorisetoRMB36-40tinordertomaintainpublicinvestmentmomentumWeexpectthegovernmenttostayvigilantonhiddenlocaldebtWeakLGFVdebtcouldcomeunderpressurethisyearduetothestrainonlocalfinancingCCBISECURITIES2Economics12February2023InflationislikelytopickupbuttheoveralllevelwillstaymodestUnlikeadvancedwesterneconomiestheChinesegovernmentdoesnotintendtodeliverunprecedentedfiscalstimulustohouseholdsHenceinflationpressureisnothighcomparedwiththeWestWeexpectthePBoCtomaintainampleliquidityconditionswhileleavingcurrentpolicyinterestratesunchangedamidsignsofaneconomicrecoveryandimprovingsentimenttowardsthepropertysectorFurtherRRRcutsin2023FremainlikelytosupportcreditgrowthfacilitateinvestmentintoprioritizedindustriesandmeetthegovernmentsfinancingneedsinourviewFig1SteadycreditexpansiontotheprivatesectorFig2Record-highRMBloansCreditgrowthYoYRMBbn45207000401535105000305250300020-515100010-105-150-20-10000121052109210122052209220123622619620621618OthersABSloanwrite-offotherEquity121712181219122012211222RMBloansCorpbondCGBLGBGovtbondCorpbondTSFShadowbankingRHSEntrustedtrustbillRMBFXloansSourceCEICCCBISSourceCEICCCBISFig3FoodandservicespricespickedupsequentiallyMoMMiscellaneousHealthcareEducationEntertainmentTransportationCommunicationHouseholdGoodsServiceResidenceClothingFoodTobaccoLiquorDec-22CPIJan-23LinearJan-23-15-10-050005101520SourceCEICCCBISCCBISECURITIES3Economics12February2023AnalystcertificationTheauthorsofthisdocumentherebydeclarethatialloftheviewsexpressedinthisdocumentaccuratelyreflecthisherpersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuersandwerepreparedinanindependentmanneriinopartofanyofhishercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisdocumentandiiiheshereceivesnoinsiderinformationnon-publicprice-sensitiveinformationinrelationtothesubjectsecuritiesorissuerswhichmayinfluencetherecommendationsmadebyhimTheauthorsofthisdocumentfurtherconfirmthatineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociatesasdefinedintheCodeofConductforPersonsLicensedbyorRegisteredwiththeSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionissuedbytheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionhasdealtintradedorwilldealintradethesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentinamannercontrarytohisheroutstandingrecommendationorneitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociateshasdealtinortradedinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisdocumentorwillsodealinortradesuchsecuritieswithin3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisdocumentiineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociatesservesasanofficerofanyofthecompaniescoveredinthisdocumentandiiineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociateshasanyfinancialinterestsinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentDisclaimersThisdocumentispreparedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedisawholly-ownedsubsidiaryofCCBInternationalHoldingsLimitedCCBIHandChinaConstructionBankCorporationCCBInformationhereinhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliablebutCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimiteditsaffiliatesandorsubsidiariescollectivelyCCBISdonotguaranteerepresentandwarranteitherexpressorimplieditscompletenessoraccuracyorappropriatenessforanypurposeoranypersonwhatsoeverOpinionsandestimatesconstituteourjudgmentasofthedateofthisdocumentandaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCCBISseekstoupdateitsresearchasappropriatebutvariousregulationsmaypreventitfromdoingsoBesidescertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasisthelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateaccordingtotheanalystsjudgmentForecastsprojectionsandvaluationsareinherentlyspeculativeinnatureandmaybebasedonanumberofcontingenciesReadersshouldnotregardtheinclusionofanyforecastsprojectionsandvaluationsinthisdocumentasarepresentationorwarrantybyoronbehalfofCCBISthattheseforecastsprojectionsorvaluationsortheirunderlyingassumptionswillbeachievedInvestmentinvolvesriskandpastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresultsInformationinthisdocumentisnotintendedtoconstituteorbeconstruedaslegalfinancialaccountingbusinessinvestmenttaxoranyprofessionaladviceforanyprospectiveinvestorsandshouldnotberelieduponinthatregardThisdocumentisforinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbetreatedasanofferorsolicitationforthepurchaseorsaleofanyproductsinvestmentssecuritiestradingstrategiesorfinancialinstrumentsofanykindinanyjurisdictionCCBISmakesnorepresentationsontheavailabilityofthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentorrelatedinvestmenttotherecipientsThesecuritiesdescribedhereinmaynotbeeligibleforsaleinalljurisdictionsortocertaincategoriesofinvestorsNeitherCCBISnoranyotherpersonsacceptanyliabilitywhatsoeverforanylossordamageswhetherdirectindirectincidentalexemplarycompensatorypunitivespecialorconsequentialarisingfromanyuseofthisdocumentoritscontentsorotherwisearisinginconnectiontherewithSecuritiesfinancialinstrumentsorstrategiesmentionedhereinmaynotbesuitableforallinvestorsTheopinionsandrecommendationshereindonottakeintoaccountprospectiveinvestorsfinancialcircumstancesinvestmentobjectivesorparticularneedsandarenotintendedasrecommendationsofparticularsecuritiesfinancialinstrumentsorstrategiestoanyprospectiveinvestorsTherecipientsofthisdocumentshouldconsiderthisdocumentasonlyasinglefactorinmarkingtheirinvestmentdecisionandshallbesolelyresponsibleformakingtheirownindependentinvestigationofthebusinessfinancialconditionandprospectsofcompaniesreferredtointhisdocumentReadersarecautionedthatithepriceandvalueofsecuritiesreferredtointhisdocumentandtheincomederivedfromthemmayfluctuateiipastperformanceisnotaguidetofutureperformanceiiianyanalysisratingsandrecommendationsmadeinthisdocumentareintendedforlong-termatleastfor12monthsandisnotlinkedtoanear-termassessmentofthelikelyperformanceofthesecuritiesorcompaniesinquestionInanyeventfutureactualresultsmaydiffermateriallyfromthosesetforthinanyforward-lookingstatementshereinivfuturereturnsarenotguaranteedandalossoforiginalcapitalmayoccurandvfluctuationsinexchangeratesmayadverselyaffectthevaluepriceorincomeofanysecurityorrelatedinstrumentreferredtointhisdocumentItshouldbenotedthatthisdocumentcoversonlythosesecuritiesorcompaniesasspecifiedhereinanddoesnotextendtoanyderivativeinstrumentsthereofthevalueofwhichmaybeaffectedbymanyfactorsandmaynotcorrespondwiththevalueoftheunderlyingsecuritiesTradingintheseinstrumentsisconsideredriskyandarenotsuitableforallinvestorsWhileallreasonablecarehasbeentakentoensurethatthefactsstatedhereinareaccurateandthattheforward-lookingstatementsopinionsandexpectationscontainedhereinarebasedonfairandreasonableassumptionsCCBIShasnotbeenabletoverifyindependentlysuchfactsorassumptionsandCCBISshallnotbeliablefortheaccuracycompletenessorcorrectnessthereofandnorepresentationorwarrantyismadeexpressorimpliedinthisregardAllpricingreferredtointhisdocumentisasofthecloseoflocalmarketforthesecuritiesdiscussedunlessotherwisestatedandforinformationpurposesonlyThereisnorepresentationthatanytransactioncanorcouldhavebeeneffectedatthosepricesandanypricesdonotnecessarilyreflectCCBISinternalbooksandrecordsortheoreticalmodel-basedvaluationsandmaybebasedoncertainassumptionsDifferentassumptionscouldresultinsubstantiallydifferentresultsAnystatementswhichmaybecontainedhereinattributedtoathird-partyrepresentCCBISinterpretationofthedatainformationandoropinionsprovidedbythatthirdpartyeitherpubliclyorthroughasubscriptionserviceandsuchuseandinterpretationhavenotbeenreviewedorendorsedbythethirdpartyReproductionanddistributionofthesethirdpartycontentsinanyformisprohibitedexceptwiththepriorwrittenconsentofsuchthirdpartyTherecipientsmustmaketheirownassessmentsoftherelevanceaccuracyandadequacyoftheinformationcontainedinthisdocumentandmakesuchindependentinvestigationastheymayconsidernecessaryorappropriateforsuchpurposeRecipientsshouldseekindependentlegalfinancialaccountingbusinessinvestmentandortaxadviceiftheyhaveanydoubtaboutthecontentsofthisdocumentandsatisfythemselvespriortomakinganyinvestmentdecisionthatsuchinvestmentisinlinewiththeirowninvestmentobjectivesandhorizonsUseofhyperlinkstootherinternetsitesorresourcesifanyasreferredtointhisdocumentisatusersownriskTheyareprovidedsolelyforthepurposeofconvenienceandinformationandthecontentoftheseinternetsitesorresourcesdoesnotinanywayformpartofthisdocumentThecontentsaccuracyopinionexpressedandotherlinksprovidedatthesesitesarenotinvestigatedverifiedmonitoredorendorsedbyCCBISCCBISexpresslydisclaimsanyresponsibilityforanddoesnotguaranteerepresentandwarranteitherexpressorimpliedthecompletenessaccuracyappropriatenessavailabilityorsecurityofinformationfoundonthesewebsitesUsersofthesewebsitesaresolelyresponsibleformakingallenquiriesinvestigationandriskassessmentbeforeproceedingwithanyonlineorofflineaccessortransactionwithanyofthesethirdpartiesAllactivitiesconductedbyusersviaoratthesewebsitesareatCCBISECURITIES4Economics12February2023theirownriskCCBISdoesnotguaranteethesecurityofanyinformationusersmayforwardorberequestedtoprovidetoanythirdpartiesviathesewebsitesUsersaredeemedtohaveirrevocablywaivedanyclaimsagainstCCBISforanylossordamagesufferedasaresultofanyaccesstoorinteractionwithanyofthesewebsitesUponrequestCCBISmayprovidespecializedresearchproductsorservicestocertaincustomersfocusingontheprospectsforspecificsecuritiesascomparedwithothercoveredsecuritiesovervaryingtimehorizonsorunderdifferingmarketconditionsWhiletheviewsexpressedinthesesituationsmaynotalwaysbedirectionallyconsistentwiththelong-termviewsexpressedintheanalystspublishedresearchCCBIShasproceduresinplacetopreventselectivedisclosureandwillupdatetherelevantreaderswhenourviewshaschangedCCBISalsohasproceduresinplacetoidentifyandmanagepotentialconflictsofinterestthatmayariseinconnectionwithitsresearchbusinessandservicesChineseWallproceduresarealsoinplacetoensurethatanyconfidentialandorpricesensitiveinformationisproperlyhandledCCBISwilluseitsbestendeavorstocomplywiththerelevantlawsandregulationsinthisrespectNeverthelesstherecipientsshouldbeawarethatCCBCCBIStheiraffiliatesandortheirofficersdirectorsandemployeesmaydobusinesswiththeissuersofthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentincludinginvestmentbankingbusinessordirectinvestmentbusinessormayholdinterestinandorlateraddordisposesuchsecuritiesorinanyrelatedinvestmentforthemselvesandoronbehalfoftheirclientsfromtimetotimeAsaresultinvestorsshouldbeawarethatCCBISmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisdocumentandCCBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofFurthertheinformationcontainedhereinmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsexpressedbyotherassociatesofCCBISorothermembersoftheCCBorCCBIHgr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