周观点
　　出行:开工后市内出行较旺，国际航班短期或仍受限于运力,期待Q2后弹性。本地出行高线城市开工后地铁客运量较快回暖，一线城市北上广深截至2023.3.9分别恢复至2019年同期84%/97%/105%/144%，开工后强度明显高于年前。城市交通拥堵指数与地铁客运量恢复度呈现类似趋势，截至3.10,33个样本城市中21个已超2019年同期水平,其中北上广深截分别恢复至2019年同期100%/106%/105%/104%。民航班次恢复看，截至2023.3.10,国内/国际客运航班量为2019年同期101%/17%，国内已超过19年同期水平修复至较高水平，国际持续回暖中。
　　餐饮:预计3月同比低基敷效应将显现，整体稳步修复中.截至2023.3.10，代表火锅品牌全国流水累计恢复至22年、21年同期104%/72%，分城市线一线/二线/三线及以下城市截止2023.3.10分别较22年同期累计恢复102%/105%/105%。截至3.8,代表休闲餐连锁品牌全国同店订单累计恢复至22年同期108%，2月以来维持在105%以上水平，表现较优。凑湊、怂火锅全国晚市高峰期的等位数据看，本周周六晚市高峰期等位数据环比上一周略有下降。
　　酒旅:携程年报扭亏、出境游恢复节奏或快于预期。2022全年携程净收入200亿元/+0.1%，恢复至2019年56%:归母净利润14亿元，同比扭亏: Non-GAAP归母净利润13亿元/-4.6%，恢复至19年约20%，4022净收入50.3亿元/+7.4%、恢复至19年同期约60%，经调整EBITDA利润率/Non-GAAP净利率分别为5.7%/9.9%、+4.5/3.3pct: Q4出境机票和酒店预定量同比上升超过200%、140%，国际平台上的机票预定量同比+80%:年初以来，公司国内机酒预定量已超过19年同期，出境游预定量恢复至疫情前水平40%+，国际平台机酒预定量保持三位数的同比增长，公司预计6月底我国出境航班量恢复至疫情前50%，到23年年底恢复80%~90%，预期节奏积极。春节后第五周(2.28~3.6)周均DAU较22年/21年农历同期分别+43%/15%，商旅需求回升速度较快。我们追踪了上市公司主要布局的经济型至中高档酒店，根据STR,2023.2.26~3.4 RevPAR同比+44% (CC+21pct. ADR+19%)，2.19 ~2.25 (开工后第三周) RevPAR对比22年开工后第四周+54% (CC+17pct、ADR+19%)。
　　数据及公告跟踪
　　上周(开盘时间2023/3/6* 2023/3/10)沪深300、恒生指数分别-3.96%、-6.07%;社会服务(申万) -3.17%，细分来看，餐饮A股、港股指數分别-2.98%、-6.75%，酒店A股、港股指数分别-2.74%、-5.74%，景区指数-5.1%,人力服务指数-1.06%。板块对比来看，社会服务板块上周涨幅在30个申万一级行业板块中位列第13。
　　投资建议
　　短期市场关注点或更多在恢复数据的兑现，3月无法定节假日，为休闲度假类消费现对淡季，叠加疫后大众消费能力、意愿恢复仍需一定缓冲时间，相较1、2月存在一定需求量、价较19年恢复度走平情况。但Q2开始伴随整体经济环境向好及节假日陆续到来、春季航线调整实施的催化，我们认为餐饮酒旅修复度有望再次明显提升。建议: 1)本地社交需求有望持续修复，一方面2023年收入端正常化后部分餐企降本增效后经营杠杆正向效应释放、单店盈利水平有望显著改善，另一方面餐饮回归品牌化成长路径，全年维度推荐修复弹性+成长性兼备的餐饮标的。2)酒店行业过去三年供给端出清+升级+龙头集中，新增供给存在时滞情况下，预计未来6~9个月有望迎来供需共振窗口，头部连锁占据核心区位、品牌力产品力综合较优，能更好享受行业供给出清红利。3)旅游随消费意愿、能力回暖有望低.基数下强势修复，更看好体验优质，同时具备存量修复+增量释放的标的。
　　本周授资组合:广州酒家、华住集团、宋城演艺、呷哺呷哺、复星旅游文化。
　　风险提示
　　疫情修复时长不确定性:门店拓展不及预期:成本上升风险;数据统计结果与实际情况偏差风险。
　　

研究报告全文：2023年03月12日买入维持评级社会服务业行业研究行业周报证券研究报告国金证券研究所分析师苏晨执业S1130522010001联系人叶思嘉suchengjzqcomcnyesijiagjzqcomcn携程22年扭亏继续看好餐饮酒旅修复-0123456789-3ABCDEBFG9HIJK-LDEMNOPQRSTUTUVWXYZRSV3VaSb-cdefC8gEhijklmnBFG9HYZdopqrst-QRTUS-TTuvAEwuxySV3z-wMNOPQWXYZRSV3SSSSbS01YZ-QRSTUTUS-G901HSV3Sa-xyV3zZRCz-JKwTmfp-ZwQRSTUTUS-zYZR3Sa-WEDLDDDEQSTUTUSWX3YZSSbSbQRTUYZR3S-SbNz-pC3m-AC3mNLYZ4I83SSSSU-YZRSVb-TU-YZRVS-bSUTaUYZRV3S-WXbUaVUVUbTUTHNySSS-NHS-HxyV3-HYZRgzS-Hm-01HYZRgbS-TYZSVS-3UTU3WXTb-JdI-N0123RwC4-567-STUUTU78977V-UVUb7897ba7VNABSTTSTTSCPTSSDElmWXTUVUSaFGHIJKTUa-LW-MNMlmWXUVUab-MNMlmWXUabUa-OPlmbU-QHIlmUSRS-FGHIRSNTUTSuJKLVWRSwXT23YZ4YZmp-Tabc-dbqdepfg-hijkdelmnYZ5LopAB-qrLHsVYZdtuvwxy2zbcg0D-ZdefABFhZ-LSTWAzzf-LJ-dZWVw-rAu-Vu-P-l6WTydemnlJKmctZ--ArHZHAOEZZA3ANmnuYZ483UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU-ZUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU-0123456789-3UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUTTmfp-ZwUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUbUYZ4I83UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUJUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUVTNUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUTEBFG9HYZdSVUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUEhijklmYZdSVUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUbTG901HYZdSV-RSTTSUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUbG901HYZdSV-RSTTSUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUbbNG901HYZdSV-RSTTSUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUbG901HYZdSV-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-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-Z5STdJKstx-n-ST-uDdeA-RSYZnL-ABde8Bde--623YZWmefuhY35lpj-53-Gw35Wpc012ZWHs345601-w7ZRS12W80DHIqde6YO9-WHwSVURSU-AjZBB-CADHIqdeEEF3st23YZ4YZmp-Tabc-dbqdepfg-hijkdelmnYZ5LopAB-qrLHsVYZdtuvwxy2zbcg0D-ZdefABFhZ-LSTWAzzf-LJ-dZGG-ZHWVw-rAu-Vu-P-l6W-dIJZKLMTydemnlJKmctZ--ArHZH-ZEAOEZU-0123456789-3ABBFG9Hm-LDEMNOPQRSTUTUVWXYZRSV3VaSb-cdefC8gEhijklmnBFG9HYZdopqrst-QRTUS-TTuvAEwuxySV3z-wMNOPQWXYZRSV3SSSSbSLDEYZdCEBFG9HYZdSV上海北京广州深圳成都南京武汉西安苏州郑州重庆长沙合肥石家庄昆明厦门南宁东莞2023-03-09978410514415387112133151180136378227NANANANANA2023-03-08978410214115388114136153185136383232163137537157902023-03-07988510214215489116136155187135384236161135530156892023-03-06988510114315289117136156188135380237161133523154872023-03-05998510014215290119137157188135380240161132514154862023-03-0498869914315190119139156187135378240162130502154852023-03-0398879914515189118139156186134377242163127504154862023-03-0298889914715388119140156184136382242162128511156882023-03-01968910115115586115138152179136371236162130527159922023-02-28979010115115486113137153176135362234162130528159932023-02-27979010215215386113136154174132363232161128529156932023-02-26979110215215286112134155172131358226159128528154932023-02-25989110315314986111129153172129351221158127524151922023-02-24999110515614787111127156170127356218151127517148932023-02-231009110715814888114127158178127370221152128502154942023-02-221039310815915092121129164190128388230154132497161942023-02-211069611016315395127130168196132409235152134493167962023-02-201079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