研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus20February2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨Nil无焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变PropertySectorReportOverallPositiveTrend--Outperform--NSectorDespiteSomeDivergences行业报告尽管有一些分歧但总体向好房地产行业--跑赢大市--否趋势不变IncreaseinProportionofChinaStateTechnology-DrivenBusinessWillConstruction03311HKHK1586Buy--N证ContinuetoDriveUptheCompanysInternational告Valuation券科技带动类业务比重增加将持续推升公研中国建筑国际报03311HKHK1586买入--否司估值究究报研TypeofReportTitleIssueDate告报告类型标题券EquityResearchReport宏观欧洲股市一飞冲天未来需要关注什么2023年2月17日证NewlyPublishedKeyEconomicDataforChinaUSandEurope中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance14000310002900012000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Feb22May22Aug22Nov22Feb23Feb22May22Aug22Nov22Feb23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergSeethelastpagefordisclaimer1of7MorningResearchFocusPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover2071981-12889739915355恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE699127-13910442343617国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE425763-2513778300035009748科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEwasrecordedasatFeb16PleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJIndustryandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsSectorReportPropertySectorOverallPositiveTrendDespiteSomeDivergencesRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystChunliZhanReportDate2023-02-17SummaryCurrentlymarketdivergenceliesbetweentherisinghouseholdsavingsandawaveofearlymortgagepaymentBothsidesshowedChinesehouseholdsreluctancetoconsumeorweakdemandforcreditBehindthewaveofmortgageprepaymentwebelievetherearetwoimportantfactorsOneisthelowerrefinancingrateandtheotheroneishomebuyerspessimisticviewonfuturehousepriceInourviewtherelativelyweaksentimentmaylastforalongertimeandturnaroundislikelytohappenin2H2023Onthepositivesideasthemarketsentimentisgraduallyrecoveringweexpectagreaterreboundinpropertysalesconsideringthemassiveretainedsavings70-cityhousingASPdatainJan2023showedsomegreenshootsespeciallyinthetier-1citiesInJan2023tier-1citiesrecorded02MoMgrowthinnewhomeASPandtheASPofsecondarymarketseemedimprovedgreateratMoMgrowthof04Webelievethelatestdatahasaffirmedthepreviousmediareportthatcertainhigher-tiercitieshaveseenaquickrecoveryofmarketsentimentaftertheChineseNewYearFurthermoretheearlyrecoveryofpropertymarketintier-1citieswillreinforcethemarketconfidenceinpropertyrecoverythisyearinourviewSalesofcompletedpropertiesmaycontinuetobenefitleadingnamesRecentlysomelocalgovernmentsindicatedtoimplementpilotprogramforsalesofcompletedpropertiesInourviewitwillhelptoenhancethehomebuyersconfidencewhichwillalsobenefittheleadingdeveloperswithhighreputationandfinancialedgesWestillrecommendSOEsandqualityprivatenamesinthesectorAmongthequalitynameswerecommendLongfor00960HKGemdale600383SHPolyDevelopment600048SHandVanke-H02202HKRisks1Reopeningofup-frontfinancingincreasingtheindustrysleverage2deterioratinghomebuyingdemandSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of7MorningResearchFocusTableFocusChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKIncreaseinProportionofTechnology-DrivenBusinessWillContinuetoDriveUptheCompanysValuationRatingBuy6-18mTPHK1586AnalystGaryWongReportDate2023-02-17SummaryWeraisetheTPtoHK1586representing87x77x69x202220232024EVEBITDAReiterateBuyrating1WeexpectconstructionmarketsizeinHongKongtoreachHK300billionannuallyby2025incontrasttothemarketsviewoftaking5-10years2WeexpecttheCompanysoverallgrossmargintograduallyincreaseincontrasttothemarketsviewofoverallgrossmarginunderpressureWidelyapplicationofprefabricatedconstructionmethodwillbringinnovationsandchangesthathavenotbeenseenintheconstructionengineeringindustryformanyyearsWethinkChinaStateConstructionInternationalCSCIortheCompanywillleadthenewroundoftechnologyinnovationinconstructionengineeringindustryandtheCompanysvaluationwillgreatlyimproveCatalystsTheresettlementhousingprojectinLongguiCeramicsCityBaiyunDistrictGuangzhouofficiallystartedonFebruary6anditisthefirstresettlementhousingprojectwhichusethetargetedrepurchasemodelinGuangdongProvinceRisks1Governmentinfrastructurespendingmaybelowerthanexpected2inflationmayexceedexpectationswhichmaycausepolicytightening3possibleworldwideCovidpandemicresurgencesNewlyPublishedKeyEconomicDataforChinaUSandEuropeTableNewlyPublished中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据AnalystEvanLi分析员李少金CountryIndicatorDataPeriodCurrentValuePriorValueMarketConsensus国家指标名称数据期间当期值前值市场一致预期USImportPriceIndexYoYJan083014美国进口价格年率1月USImportPriceIndexMoMJan-02-01-01美国进口价格月率1月USExportPriceIndexYoYJan234328美国出口价格年率1月USExportPriceIndexMoMJan08-32-02美国出口价格月率1月SourceBloomberg数据来源彭博ChineseTranslation中文翻译TableFocuschi行业和公司焦点Nil无Seethelastpagefordisclaimer3of7MorningResearchFocusTableLatestchi最新报告行业报告房地产行业尽管有一些分歧但总体向好趋势不变评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员詹春立报告日期2023-02-17报告摘要目前市场分歧存在于提升的居民储蓄和房贷的提前偿还这两个方面其实都反映了中国居民消费意愿的下降或者较弱的居民借贷需求而在一波提前还贷浪潮的背后我们认为有两个更为重要的因素一是当前较低的再贷款利率二是购房者对于未来房价较为悲观的情绪在我们看来较弱的市场气氛可能会持续更长时间真正的复苏转折可能在今年下半年从更乐观的角度看随着市场气氛逐渐转好考虑到大量的居民存款我们预计住房销售反弹复苏的幅度可能会更大2023年1月份的70城房价数据显示了一些复苏苗头尤其是在一线城市今年1月份一线城市的新房销售价格指数录得02的环比增长二手房价格指数上涨幅度更明显环比增长为04我们认为最新的数据映证了之前的媒体报道即个别高线城市在春节后房地产市场气氛有明显好转进一步我们认为房地产市场在一线城市的较早回暖将坚定市场对于今年房地产市场总体复苏的信心现房销售或将持续利好领先房企最近一些地方政府表示将探索实施房地产现房销售试点我们认为这将会有助于增强购房人的信心同时也会利好具备较好信誉以及资金优势的领先房企我们仍然推荐行业中的国企和优质民企其中我们推荐龙湖集团00960HK金地集团600383SH保利发展600048SH和万科企业02202HK风险1重新放开前融行业杠杆上行以及2购房需求下行中国建筑国际03311HK科技带动类业务比重增加将持续推升公司估值评级买入6-18m目标价HK1586分析员黄家玮报告日期2023-02-17报告摘要我们上调目标价至1586港元对应87倍77倍69倍202220232024年EVEBITDA维持买入评级1我们预计香港建造市场年度规模将会在2025年达到3000亿港元有别于市场认为的需要5到10年2我们预计公司整体毛利率将逐步提高有别于市场认为的整体毛利率将承压装配式建筑法的广泛应用将为建筑工程行业带来多年未见的创新和变革我们认为中国建筑国际中建国际或公司将引领建筑工程行业新一轮的科技创新公司估值将大幅提升催化剂广州白云区龙归陶瓷城安置房项目于2月6日正式动工是广东省首单采用定向回购模式的安置房项目风险1政府基础设施支出可能低于预期2通胀可能超预期并导致政策收紧3世界各地的疫情可能会出现波动欧洲股市一飞冲天未来需要关注什么宏观组周浩孙英超报告日期2023-02-17报告摘要欧洲经济表现开年以来明显超出市场预期欧洲经济也很可能摆脱衰退这也大概率成为2023年第一个被证伪的主要宏观判断与此同时资本市场也给出了乐观的判断欧洲斯托克50指数也在近期节节走高很可能在近期创下2008年金融危机以来的新高Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of7MorningResearchFocus能源危机并未对欧洲经济造成想象中的致命影响这成为欧洲经济显著高于预期的最关键因素在经历了俄乌冲突后的早期冲击后欧洲经济逐步在2022年下半年企稳作为欧洲经济最为重要的领先指标PMI指数在近期的快速回升清晰地表明欧洲经济已经度过了最为困难的时段伴随着欧洲经济的超预期我们认为有两个指标值得关注第一是贸易条件指数目前这一指数正在改善这意味着欧洲的贸易逆差将会收窄第二是欧洲的工业出现了再通胀这表明制造业表现相对突出同时也表明CPI下行速度会较为缓慢欧元区经济的超预期表现以及由此产生的相对确定性让资金持续流入欧洲股市欧洲股市的构成相对传统化和重型化能源金融公司占比较高在高利率环境下更容易受到资金的青睐对于投资者而言欧洲的制造业以及其相关资本品出口的表现一方面是追踪欧元区经济表现的最主要指标另一方面也意味着我国国内相关工业领域会得到提振从外汇市场的表现来看欧元也将保持一定的韧性Seethelastpagefordisclaimer5of7MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer6of7MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKSENSETIME-W00020HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKVOBILEGROUP03738HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofTENCENT00700HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer7of7