研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus17February2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus新闻焦点今NewsFocus行业和公司焦点晨IndustryandCompanyFocus焦ResearchNil无点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningTypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题MarketStrategyHKMarkettoExperienceaChillingButComfortingSpringin202316February2023NewlyPublishedKeyEconomicDataforChinaUSandEurope中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据证告券AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports研报后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版究究报研HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance告31000券14000EquityResearchReport29000证27000120002500010000230002100080001900017000600015000400013000110002000Feb22May22Aug22Nov22Feb23Feb22May22Aug22Nov22Feb23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover20987670841229041194849恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE70899510286442622264国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE4367101833751100035423290科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEwasrecordedasatFeb15Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of6MorningResearchFocusPleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJNewsFocus新闻焦点TableNewsFocusMarketNews市场新闻TwoFederalReserveofficialssaidtheywouldhavesupportedraisinginterestratesbyahalfpercentagepointatthecentralbanksmeetingearlierthismonthgiventhestrengthofeconomicdemandandinflationClevelandFedPresidentLorettaMestertoldreportersafteraspeechThursdaythatshedidntseeachangeinheroutlookthatthefundsratewouldhavetogoabove5StLouisFedPresidentJamesBullardalsosaidThursdayhewouldhavefavoredahalf-pointrateincreaseatthelastmeetingandthathewouldsupportmovingasquicklyaspossibletoraiseratestojustbelow55两名美联储官员表示鉴于经济需求和通胀强劲他们本会支持在本月早些时候的央行会议上加息半个百分点克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长梅斯特周四发表讲话后告诉记者我认为我的前景没有变化即联邦基金利率必须超过5圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德周四也表示他本希望在上次会议上加息50个基点并支持尽快将利率提高至略低于55USsupplierpricesrose6inJanuaryfromayearearlierasignofstillstubborninflationpressuresintheeconomyThatincreaseintheproducer-priceindexwhichgenerallyreflectssupplyconditionsintheeconomywasslowerthanDecembers65gaintheLaborDepartmentsaidThursdayAnditwasdownmarkedlyfromthe117riseinMarch2022therecentpeak美国1月PPI较上年同期上涨6表明经济中通胀压力依然顽固美国劳工部周四表示PPI涨幅低于12月65的涨幅与最近的峰值2022年3月的117的涨幅相比明显下降WorkerfilingsforunemploymentbenefitsheldnearlysteadylastweekandremainedhistoricallylowasignofcontinuedtightnessinthelabormarketInitialjoblessclaimsaproxyforlayoffsdecreasedby1000toaseasonallyadjusted194000lastweektheLaborDepartmentsaidThursdayWeeklyclaimshaveremainedbelowthe2019prepandemicaverageofabout220000sincethestartoftheyearThefourweekmovingaverageofweeklyclaimswhichsmoothsoutvolatilityroseslightlyto189500美国劳工部周四表示上周初请失业金人数几乎保持稳定并处于历史低位表明劳动力市场持续紧张上周初请失业金人数减少1000人经季节性调整后为194000人自今年年初以来每周申请失业救济人数一直低于2019年大流行前的平均水平约220000人而每周申领失业金人数在近四周移动平均数小幅上升至189500人Seethelastpagefordisclaimer2of6MorningResearchFocusIndustryTableFocusandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsMarketStrategy-HKMarkettoExperienceaChillingButComfortingSpringin2023AnalystJakeWangReportDate2023-02-16SummaryTheHongKongstockmarketcontinuedtodecreaserecentlywhichwassimilartothepatternsoverthepastfewyearsTheHSIwasdown66sinceJan27andhasoffsetpreviousgainsfromthebeginningof2023totheChineseNewYearInfacttheHongKongstockmarkethadexhibitedsimilarpullbacksinthefirstquarteroverpastyearsjustlikethespringchillSuchpatternhasbecomeincreasinglyevidentinthelast3yearsmainlyduetotheCovidpandemictheUSFederalReserveFedsinterestratehikesaswellasgeopoliticaltensionsIngeneralthespringchillintheHongKongstockmarketusuallylastsforabout1monthwiththeHSIdown10-15onaveragePrevioustopperformersorliquidity-sensitivesectorsareoftentoleadtheselloffduringspringpullbacksThetemporarycorrectionsweremainlycausedby1worseningeconomicindicatorswhichfrequentlyfellshortofexpectationsduringtheglobaldownturn2risinginflationarypressureintheUSandothereconomieswhichincreasedmarketconcernsontheaccelerationofmonetarytighteningfrommajorglobalcentralbanks3geopoliticaltensionsthatsuppressedmarketriskappetiteand4excessiveincreaseinmarketvaluationduringthespringrallywhichoftenledtosubsequenttechnicalcorrectionsComparedwithpreviouspatternsinthepastfewyearswebelievethedurationandimpactofthespring2023pullbackintheHongKongstockmarketislikelytobemorecomforting1Chinasmacropoliciesweremostlycenteredaroundepidemiccontrolandpreventionoverthepastthreeyearswhilepolicystancein2023hasclearlyshiftedtoeconomicrevival2Overseasinflationhasmostlybeeninanupwardphaseoverthepast3yearsleadingtotighteningexpectationsinUSFedorothermajorcentralbanksmonetarypoliciesOnthecontraryoverseasinterestratehikecyclesaredrawingtoanendin20233UncertaintiesregardingtheSino-UStensionsmayaffectmarketsentimentintheshorttermbuttheoverallimpactmaybelimitedothergeopoliticalandregulatoryriskshavealsobeenmoderatedcomparedtothepastfewyears4CurrentvaluationleveloftheHongKongstockmarketisnearthehistoricalaveragewhichseemsmoreappealingcomparedwiththoseinthefirstquarterof20182021and2022Thusthemagnitudeoftechnicalcorrectionmayberelativelylimited5ThemagnitudeofchangesintherelevantindicatorsmaybeusedasareferencefordeterminingthedurationandmagnitudeofmarketcorrectionsWesuggestbuyingondipsdespiteshort-termfluctuations1Short-termcorrectionsmayresultfromthesellingpressureonbookedgainspossiblereboundinUSTreasuryyieldsorRMBexchangeratefluctuations2Thatsaidwebelievethatthedurationandimpactofthespringpullbackin2023mayberelativelylimitedandmaynotbuilduptoapivotpointinthemediumterm3DomesticeconomicrecoveryisexpectedtopersistandleadtothenotableupwardrevisionincorporateearningsforHongKongstocksInthemeantimetransactionsbasedonoverseasliquidityrecoveryarestillunderwayMajorcatalystsforfurtherupsideintheHongKongstockmarketwouldbeaspikeinChinassocialfinancingvolumeorashiftinFedpolicystancewhichmaybothoccurnearthesecondquarterWehaveslightlyadjustedoursectorrecommendationaswebelieveundervaluedsectorsthatbenefitfromimprovementintheChineseeconomymayprevailintheshortrun1Currentlywerecommendfocusingonsectorssuchasrealestatebankinginsuranceandmaterialssectorsmainlyduetohighercertaintycomparedwithpotentialfluctuationsinoverseasliquidityexpectationsormarketrisksentiment2Wealsopreferconsumercyclicalnamesthatarestillundervaluedincludingautomobilesconsumerelectronicsetc3Asforliquidity-sensitivesectorssuchaspharmaceuticalssemiconductorspreciousmetalsgoldetcwesuggestbuyingonbargainsgiventhatthemarginaleasinginoverseasliquiditymaypersistinthemediumtermRiskFactors1Chinasstimuluspoliciesmaynotbesufficient2Fedmonetarytighteningmayexceedexpectation3impactfromSino-UStensionsmayexceedexpectationSeethelastpagefordisclaimer3of6MorningResearchFocusNewlyPublishedKeyEconomicDataforChinaUSandEuropeTableNewlyPublished中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据AnalystAndyHuang分析员黄凯鸿CurrentMarketCountryIndicatorDataPeriodMoMQoQYoYValueConsensus国家指标名称数据期间环比变动同比变动当期值市场一致预期USPPIYoYJan6005ppts41ppts54美国生产者物价指数同比增速1月USCorePPIYoYJan5404ppts32ppts49美国核心生产者物价指数同比增速1月SourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaUniversityofMichiganBloomberg数据来源中国国家统计局密歇根大学彭博ChineseTranslation中文翻译行业和公司焦点TableFocuschiNil无TableLatestchi最新报告Nil无Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of6MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer5of6MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKSENSETIME-W00020HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKVOBILEGROUP03738HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer6of6