疫情达峰背景下，出行人数及消费均复苏。2023年1月，首套住房弹性按揭利率等需求端刺激政策出台。相应地，目前超过20个城市已下调了首套房按揭利率。在疫情高峰已过的背景下，春节期间出行人数显著恢复，消费明显回暖。跨省客流明显恢复。疫情达峰背景下，出行人数及消费均复苏预计将助推经济复苏。
　　 2023年1月，新增人民币贷款及新增社会融资总额均好于市场预期。2023年1月，新增人民币贷款达4.9万亿元人民币，同比增长9,256亿元人民币。新增企业贷款同比大幅增长1.32万亿元人民币，全部由中长期人民币贷款贡献。新增社会融资总额达5.98万亿元人民币，同比下滑1,950亿元人民币。人民币贷款的增长是新增社会融资总额较高的主要贡献因素。未来一段时间，我们将重点关注宽信用的持续性及零售贷款的恢复。
　　我们维持银行行业2023年“跑赢大市”投资评级。当前，在中国内地，政策方向进一步明确，宏观经济利好消息不断出现，有助于推动经济回暖、提振银行股投资信心。我们挑选最受益于房地产政策放松的内地银行以及业绩表现较好的内地银行作为我们的优先推荐。我们推荐招商银行(03968 HK)、邮储银行(01658 HK)。同时，我们亦推荐中银香港(02388 HK)、汇丰控股(00005 HK)，其受益于美联储持续加息。
　　风险因素：经济下行超出预期；政策效果不及预期。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportBankingSectorRichardCao曹柱行业报告银行行业8675523976870zhucaogtjascomhk13February2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyWrapPayingMoreAttentiontothePersistenceof行CreditandTSFOutperform双周报重点关注信贷和社会融资总额的可持续性跑赢大市业报ThenumberoftravelersandconsumptionbothrecoveredgiventheTableInvestInfo告localCovidepidemicpeakedInJanuary2023demand-sidestimulatingRatingOutperformSectorReportSectorpoliciessuchasflexiblemortgageratesforfirst-timehomebuyerswereMaintainedissuedInresponsemorethan20citiesloweredfirst-homemortgageratesuptonowGiventhatthepeakoftheepidemichaspassedthevolumeof评级跑赢大市维持travelersrecoveredoutstandinglyandconsumptionpickedupoutstandinglyduringtheSpringFestivalCross-provincepassengerflowrecovered2outstandinglyGiventhattheepidemicpeakedthepickupinnumberoftravelersandconsumptionisexpectedtoboosteconomicrecoverySectorperformance行业表现BothnewRMBloansandnewTSFbeatmarketexpectationsinJanuary002023InJanuary2023newRMBloansachievedRMB49trnupRMB9256Jul-22-100Jul-22Jan-23Jun-22Oct-22Apr-22Feb-22Feb-23Sep-22Dec-22Aug-22Nov-22Nov-22Mar-22Mar-22May-22bnYoYNewcorporateloanssignificantlyincreasedbyRMB132trnwhich-200证wasallcontributedbymedium-termandlong-termRMBloansNewTSF-300告amountedtoRMB598trndownRMB195bnYoYTheincreaseinRMB券loanswasthemaincontributorforthehighnewTSFInthenearfuturewe-400研报-500willprimarilyobservethepersistenceofloosecreditandtherecoveryofretail-600究究loans-700ResearchReport报研WemaintainOutperformratingforthebankingsectorin2023AtHSIIndexIndexofmainlandlistedbanks告presentinmainlandChinathepolicydirectionisbecomingclearerand券SourceBloombergfavorablenewsonthemacroeconomycontinuestoappearwhichwillhelpEquity证promotetherecoveryoftheeconomyandboostmarketconfidenceonbankstocksWepickmainlandbankswhowillbenefitmostfromtherelaxationofYoYgrowthinbalanceofTSFandrealestatepoliciesandmainlandbankswhosefinancialresultsperformanceRMBloansisexpectedtobebetterasourpriorityrecommendationsWerecommend社会融资及人民币贷款存量同比增速CMB03968HKandPSBC01658HKMeanwhilewealsorecommend130BOCHK02388HKandHSBC00005HKwhowillbenefitfromtheUS125TFederalReservescontinuousinterestratehikes120115aRiskfactorsThedeclineintheeconomymaybebeyondexpectationsthe110resultsofpoliciesmaynotbeinline105b10095银l疫情达峰背景下出行人数及消费均复苏2023年1月首套住房弹性按揭利率等需求90端刺激政策出台相应地目前超过20个城市已下调了首套房按揭利率在疫情高峰已行e过的背景下春节期间出行人数显著恢复消费明显回暖跨省客流明显恢复疫情达峰行BalanceofTSFYoYgrowht背景下出行人数及消费均复苏预计将助推经济复苏BalanceofRMBloansYoYgrowth业LSourcethePeoplesBankofChinaGuotaiJunanInternationalBankingSector2023年1月新增人民币贷款及新增社会融资总额均好于市场预期2023年1月新增e人民币贷款达49万亿元人民币同比增长9256亿元人民币新增企业贷款同比大幅增f长132万亿元人民币全部由中长期人民币贷款贡献新增社会融资总额达598万亿元人民币同比下滑1950亿元人民币人民币贷款的增长是新增社会融资总额较高的主要t贡献因素未来一段时间我们将重点关注宽信用的持续性及零售贷款的恢复M我们维持银行行业2023年跑赢大市投资评级当前在中国内地政策方向进一步a明确宏观经济利好消息不断出现有助于推动经济回暖提振银行股投资信心我们挑选最受益于房地产政策放松的内地银行以及业绩表现较好的内地银行作为我们的优先推r荐我们推荐招商银行03968HK邮储银行01658HK同时我们亦推荐中银香港g02388HK汇丰控股00005HK其受益于美联储持续加息i风险因素经济下行超出预期政策效果不及预期nSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of7SourceTableSectorBankingMainland202020202020202020202020loansNeloanspurchasehouseofofwhichbnbyRMB5858decreasedgovernmentstheofguidancepolicyloansofextensionthestrengthenedbanksthatwasgrowththesignificantlyinmarketcorporatenewanddepositshouseholdnewdepositQoQppts08respectivelyQoQpptsand30ChinanBothrecovereconomicseasontravelFestivaloutstandinglthatGivencountrytheacrossclinicsfeverinconsultationsofnumberthe2023JanuarywhobenefitfutureneartheInestateindustryZhuhaiXiamenandZhuhaiTianjinmortgageratesforfirstthegivenrecoveredloweredhavecities20thanMoredataexpectationsbeatreadingsmonetarythewholepactheandeffectsseasonalofimpactTSFnewbtand2022Decemberinthattosimilarwas222222222222onds222222222223------------1102030405060708010101l92recentlye1thashePeoplesBankofChinaGuotaiJunanJunanGuotaiChinaofPeoplesheBankSeandnewcorporateandnewbondscorporateewRMBloansRMBewssderivedfromChinaPBOCeconomicstabilizationandrecoveryAsAsrecoveryandstabilizationeconomicreachedexpectationebeenwTSFamountedtoRMB598toamountedTSFwHoweverconsideringthattheSpringFestivalin2023inFestivalSpringthethatHoweverconsideringththepeatheyeslascreaseddvolatileannouncedthemainmonetaryreadingsmonetarymaintheannouncedrntepigFestivalSpringtheuringAcriskgenerationlevelofthemainmainM1andM2tM1YoYgrowthYoYM137As37pagycordingtoapressconferenceheldbythejointpreventionandcontrolmechanismoftheStateCouncilonCouncilStatetheofmechanismcontrolandpreventionjointthebyheldconferencepressatocordingweexpectthatoperatingconditionsandriskforrealestateenterpriseswillimproveoutstandinglywhichwilloutstandinglywhichimprovewillenterprisesestaterealforriskandconditionsoperatingthatexpectwekoftheepidemichaspassedhasepidemictheofkdemandsefothestrongincreaseinhsrcuefeRBonwsiiattaiteatemonthsfewpasttheinthattosimilarbywasloansRMBnewofstructureThe-wetheobservewillprimarilyGiventimehomebuyerswereissuedandnewTSFbeatmarketexpectationsinJanuary2023JanuaryinexpectationsmarketbeatTSFnewandroaCovidlocaldisclaimerRMB132trnwhichwasallcontributedby474751465867616458463767thepromotionofsupportivepoliciesforrealestateenterprisesanddemandandenterprisesestaterealforpoliciessupportiveofpromotionthetheYoYdecreaseinnewretailloanswasalsodraggedbytheincreaseinprepaymYoYinthetheincreasebydraggedalsowasloansretailnewindecreaseloweredepidemictheM2YoYgrowthYoYM2significantlyYoYdeclinedincwhiletheindicatorswhichshowsthatdemandshowswhichpdmcpeakedepidemicfirstInternationalneofgovernmentbondissuancewethinknewTSFnewthinkweissuancebondgovernmentofefirstewtrndownRMBdowntrn-105105120122121124126homehome111114118118Crossrealestate9297m-peakedthepickupofthenumberoftravelersandconsumptionisexpectedtoboosttoexpectedisconsumptionandtravelersofnumbertheofpickupthepeakedcorporatecorporateloanshomeheYoYhedecreaediumdepositsTheQoQincreaseinM1growthwasmainlyattributabletothetheininincreaseM1towasattributablemainlygrowthTheQoQincrease-mortgageratesmortgagetheepidemicthervneasneforecovereflowpassengerprovinceYoYdifferenceYoYdifferencethevolumeoftravelersrecoveredoutstandinglyandoutstandinglyrecoveredtravelersofvolumethePwhichisapositivesignalfortheforsignalpositiveaiswhich-otaeaenteubrfrvlradosmtobothconsumptionandtravelersofnumbertheandratesmortgagetermtermandlongpersistenceofofM1YoYofM1NewRMBloansachievedRMB49trnupRMB9256bnYoYbnRMB9256beatupwhichtrnRMB49achievedloansRMBNewindustryInInresponsemoretInJanuary2023M1growthandM2growthwere67and126up126and67weregrowthM2andgrowthM12023JanuaryIngrowth195bnYoYwhichbeatmarketexpectationsYoYmarketbnbeat195whichpptsnaur202JanuaryIn272411150318192730160286sTheQoQincreaseinM2growthwasduetotheYoYincreaseinbotheinnewTSFwasprimarilybecausenewlnewbecauseprimarilywasTSFnewineispeakedforexpectedtocontinuetodeclinefurthereasingmarketconcernsuptonowtoupMoMMoMwa-increastermRMBloansloosecorporateloanswasstrongwascorporateloansmediumsofM1YoYofM1differencedifferenceconcentratedinJanuaryFebruaryin2022excludingtheexcluding2022inFebruaryJanuaryinconcentratedconditionsoftheepidemichaveremainedstableontheonstableremainedhaveepidemictheofconditionsrgrowtheaseincreditandtherecoverycreditretailofpptsing30506061209han20citiesincludingZhengzhouShenyangFuzhou66000412090330-AmongthemthelowestfirstlowestthethemAmongtermandlongdemandsupportforkeyprojectsandenterprisesundertheunderenterprisesandprojectskeyforsupportstayedinthelowrangedrangelowtheinstayedRMBTablePageHeaderYoYdifferenceExceptfordecreasedbnweakbyRMB5193dmainlandOn-ofM2YoYofM2outstandinglloanswasthewascontributorthehighmainloansfortheietmltnplcescassuchpoliciesstimulatingside10F10growthppts-could09termRMBloans0324282837403831392828ebruarybankingsectorbankingerachieveaachievethanexpectedNewretailloansretailNewexpectedthanMoMdifferencedifferenceMoMyafter2023ofM2YoYofM2ThestructureofnewTSFTSFnewofstructureTheuringtheSpringFestivalSpringtheuring-ocalgovernmentspecialgovernmentocalsidesupportfortherealtheforsupportsidetheloansnearinfuturegrowthconsumptionpickeduppickedconsumptiont-pptshestartofofstarthehomemortagerateinratemortagehomeNewYoYincreaseYoY06010306Themainreasonforthe0508060306020608HoweverPeoplesentinentoprtloanscorporateYoYandM1M1andYoYaknSectorBankingbetweenM2M2betweenmortgagedtheDifferenceifferencedemandPagePagemonthlymonthlyBankofBankflexibleOntheOnYoYYoYpptsSpring000101010101015760788159230ofof72nigraMelbaT1nigraMelbaTSectorReportBankingSector银行行业13February2023SourceTable202020202020202020202020derivativesareexcludedarederivativesbalancetheoffandonthepurposeofmaintandextentsometooptimizedtopublicthetoBanksCommercialabroadstructureassetbankofchangeJuly1onRiskClassificationofFinancialAssetsofCommercialBankshereinafterreferredtoastermshortIKongwillremaingivengoodtheKongrecoveryloansofperiodlongeraforremainpossiblywillratesprojectalsoweresponseInperiodlongaforfutureinordertocontrolinflationweexpectthathikeraisedtargetitsrangeforthefederalfundsratebytoexpectedareKongHongoutsideuseforloansandKongeconomythestabilizetomeasuresofseriesaissuesgovernmentKongHongtheandrelaxesKongfutureneartheincludingtradefinancedecreasedby04MoMinDecemberandloansforuseoutsideHongKongdecreasedby20MoMMoMby08DecemberinAccTBankingSectorKongHongfavorableprofitsofreleasetherequirementsregulatoryhavebanksthatnfluencefromtheissuanceofthetheofissuancethefromnfluence222222222222otalloansdecreasedby08bydecreasedloansotal222223222222------------1102030405060708010101ordingtotoording922thePeoplesBankofChinaGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiChinaofPeoplesheBankthemainChinasfinancingreadingsSenpi2019AprilIneHongKongMonetaryAuthorityannouncedtoincreasetoannouncedAuthorityMonetaryKongHongforfor2023thebutpositiveinthemediumandlongtermlongandmediumtheinpositivebutbanksstatisticspublishedbytheHongKongMonetaryAuthorityAuthorityMonetaryKongHongthebypublishedstatisticslasastTheissuanceofthetheofissuanceThepagRMB00RMBmlmnetexetdcreexpectedtheimplementedNewRMBNewRMBthetoem12300123003130018900281001250024700121001400049000loans645467906152foinstrengthenassetstheirandeffectivelyanddefuseriskspreventeasuresistotofiveextendeasurestheisChinesemainlanChinesemrhPOhdsudhdatotfordrafttheissuedhadPBOCthesheetndisclaimer0hcretperiodcurrentthewethinkIntheshorttermshorttheIn2022oprdihhdraftthewi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