报告摘要
　　中国企业信贷持续好转，推动制造业复苏。中国调整宏观政策以支撑经济，企业中长期贷款持续提升。1月企业中长期贷款人民币35,000亿元，同比增加66.7%，创历史新高。在国家政策的支持下，本轮企业中长期贷款的提升主要由制造业推动。我们认为工业自动化设备或将进入上行周期，我们看好机床行业、注塑机行业、压铸机行业的机会。
　　国家政策支持力度加大，中国机器人产业将蓬勃发展。中国对机器人产业的支持力度不断加大，工业机器人及服务机器人产业有望快速发展。1月中国发布《机器人+应用行动实施方案》，加快推动机器人的各项应用。近期ChatGPT带动了市场对人工智能的关注，具备先进人工智能技术的人形机器人将在未来获得更广泛的应用。
　　新能源汽车渗透率继续提升，我们继续看好一体化压铸行业。尽管中国1月汽车销量有所下滑，但新能源汽车渗透率继续提升。中国新能源汽车产业发展迅速，主机厂和零部件供应商对新技术、新工艺的投入较为积极，带动了中国市场对一体压铸方案的需求。我们认为汽车制造商对超大型压铸机的需求将维持强劲。
　　风险因素：经济复苏不及预期

研究报告全文：股票研究TableTitleEquityResearchResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus16February2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus新闻焦点今NewsFocus行业和公司焦点晨IndustryandCompanyFocus焦ResearchNil无点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变SectorReportBi-WeeklyWrapElectronicsGlobalSemiconductorSalesin2022--Outperform--NSectorReachedHistoricalHighDespiteSalesWeaknessin2H2022行业报告双周报虽然2022下半年销证电子行业售疲软但2022年全球半导体销售总额--跑赢大市--否券仍创下历史新高SectorReportBi-WeeklyUpdateNonferrous研MoreUncertainFactorsWillImpact--Outperform--NMetalsSector告MetalPrice究行业报告双周报更多不确定因素将影有色金属行业报--跑赢大市--否报响金属价格究SectorReportBi-WeeklyUpdate告ContinuedOptimismAbouttheEquityResearchReportMachinery研RecoveryoftheManufacturing--Outperform--NSectorIndustrytheRobotIndustryis券UsheringinOpportunities行业报告双周报继续看好制造业复苏机械行业证--跑赢大市--否机器人行业迎来机遇NewCapacitytoDriveProlongedSandsChina01928HKHK3600BuyYGrowthUpgradetoBuy金沙中国01928HK新物业将推动长期增长上调至买入HK3600买入是SectorReportBi-WeeklyUpdateAutomobilesThePessimisticSalesForecast--Outperform--NSectorCameTrueasPredictedSalesMayReboundStronglyinMid-to-LateFeb行业报告双周报销量悲观预期如期兑汽车行业--跑赢大市--否现二月中下旬销量或将强劲反弹TypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题MarketStrategyStrongLaborMarketMayNotIndicateSoftLanding15February2023AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of10MorningResearchFocusHSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900027000120002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Feb22May22Aug22Nov22Feb23Feb22May22Aug22Nov22Feb23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover2081217-143112313939600恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE701814-130591242971360国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE428875-0973802700036029777科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEwasrecordedasatFeb14PleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchandStrategyTeamWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJNewsFocus新闻焦点TableNewsFocusMarketNews市场新闻ThepresidentoftheEuropeanCentralBanksaidsheintendedtoraiseinterestratesby50basispointsinMarchwillreviewthepathofinterestratesaftertheMarchhikethepaceoffuturetaperingofassetpurchasesremainstobeundetermined欧洲央行行长表示打算在3月加息50个基点将在3月加息后评估其后的利率路径未来资产购买计划的缩减速度有待确定Seethelastpagefordisclaimer2of10MorningResearchFocusIndustryTableFocusandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsSectorReportElectronicsSectorBi-WeeklyWrapGlobalSemiconductorSalesin2022ReachedHistoricalHighDespiteSalesWeaknessin2H2022RatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystJackLiuReportDate2023-02-15SummaryGlobalsemiconductorsalesslightlygrewby32YoYin2022long-termgrowthprospectremainspositiveAccordingtostatisticsfromtheSemiconductorIndustryAssociationSIAglobalsemiconductorindustrytotalsalesgrewby262YoYfromUS4404billionin2020toUS5559billionin2021mainlyduetonewdemandspurredbytheCOVID-19pandemicIn2022globalsemiconductorindustrysalesslightlyincreasedby32YoYtoUS5735billionmainlyasaresultofstrongsalesin1H2022butlargelyoffsetbysalesdeclinein2H2022Webelieveshort-termfluctuationsinthesemiconductorsindustrychainissomewhatinevitableduetocyclicalchangesinmarketdemandandthemacroeconomyHoweversemiconductorproductsconstitutefundamentallytothedigitaltransformationofsocietythuslong-termoutlookfortheglobalsemiconductormarketremainsincrediblystrongIntelexpectslong-termglobalpersonalcomputerPCtotaladdressablemarketTAMtoremainstableIn3Q2022IntelreleaseditsestimationforglobalPCTAMin2023tobe270millionto295millionunitsConsideringcontinueddestockingfromtheclientsideIntelcurrentlybelievesthatthelowerendofsuchrangeismoreachievablein2023BasedonaconservativerefreshrateassumptionandhigherinstalledbaseassumptionIntelexpectsglobalPCTAMtostayataround300millionunitsperyearinthelongtermIntelalsobelievesthatmarketheadwindsarelikelytopersistin1H2023andbottomoutin2H2023whichisbasicallyinlinewithTSMCsmarketoutlookinJan2023Keyinvestmentthesisfortheelectronicssectorin20231Applesrevolutionarymixed-realityMRproductwillleadanewglobalinnovationcycleforconsumerelectronics2acceleratedpenetrationofNEVsandintelligentvehiclesislikelytobenefittheautomotiveelectronicssupplychainand3escalatedsanctionsfromtheUSanditsallieswillstrengthenChinasdeterminationofimplementingself-controllablestrategiesinICmanufacturingandthemarketislikelytoseeanincreasingpresenceofdomesticsemiconductorequipmentandproductsinthemediumtolongtermSectorReportNonferrousMetalsSectorBi-WeeklyUpdateMoreUncertainFactorsWillImpactMetalPriceRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystKevinGuoReportDate2023-02-15SummaryExpectationsontheFederalReservesinterestratehikevariedmetalpricefluctuationrangemayextendDomesticnewlyaddedsocialfinancingscaledatareflectedthatfinancingdemandfromthemanufacturingsectorswasgoodandeconomicrecoveryisvisiblebutfinancingdemandfromthepropertysectorwasstillweakMarketexpectationsonUSFederalReservesFedinterestratehikesvariedbasedonthelatesteconomicdatawhichwillimpactfuturemetalpricefluctuationProductioncutwaslowerthanmarketexpectationandaluminuminventorycontinuedtogrowProductioncutinYunnanProvincehasnottakenplacewhileoverseasprimaryaluminumoutputmaygrowSomealuminumsmeltersinEuropehaveplanstoresumeproductionafterelectricitypricedeclinesandIndonesiaandSaudiArabiamayadd05milliontonsand1milliontonsofnewcapacityin2023DownstreamdemandincreasedslightlyaftertheChineseNewYearasmorefactoriesresumedproductionaftertheholidayperiodSeethelastpagefordisclaimer3of10MorningResearchFocusConsumptiondemandwasrestrainedbyhighcopperpriceimpactfromfinancialmarketinvestmentdemandisincreasingProductionfromoverseascoppermineswasstilldisturbedbyuncontrollablefactorswhichwillimpactglobalminingsupplyFinancialinvestorsinvestmentdemandincopperwillexertmoreinfluenceoncopperpriceWemaintainOutperforminvestmentratingforthenonferrousmetalssectorWerecommendChinaHongqiao01378HKXingfaAluminium00098HKZijinMining02899HKSectorReportMachinerySectorBi-WeeklyUpdateContinuedOptimismAbouttheRecoveryoftheManufacturingIndustrytheRobotIndustryisUsheringinOpportunitiesRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystAlexBaiReportDate2023-02-15SummaryChinasenterprisecreditcontinuedtoimprovedrivingtherecoveryofthemanufacturingindustryChinaadjustedmacropoliciestosupporttheeconomyandmedium-andlong-termloanstoenterprisescontinuedtoincreaseInJanuarymedium-andlong-termloansofenterprisesreachedRMB35000billionanincreaseof667YoYhittingarecordhighWithsupportfromnationalpoliciestheincreaseinmedium-andlong-termloanstoenterprisesinthisroundwasmainlydrivenbythemanufacturingindustryWebelievethatindustrialautomationequipmentmayenteranupwardcycleandweareoptimisticabouttheopportunitiesinthemachinetoolindustryinjectionmoldingmachineindustryanddie-castingmachineindustryWiththestrengtheningofnationalpolicysupportChinasrobotindustrywillflourishChinassupportfortherobotindustrycontinuestoincreaseandindustrialrobotandservicerobotindustriesareexpectedtodeveloprapidlyInJanuaryChinareleasedtheRobotApplicationActionPlantoacceleratethepromotionofvariousapplicationsofrobotsChatGPThasdriventhemarketsattentiontoartificialintelligencerecentlyandhumanoidrobotswithadvancedartificialintelligencetechnologywillbemorewidelyusedinthefutureThepenetrationrateofnewenergyvehiclescontinuedtoincreaseandweareoptimisticaboutthesingle-piecedie-castingindustryAlthoughChinasautosalesfellinJanuarythepenetrationrateofnewenergyvehiclescontinuedtoincreaseChinasnewenergyautomobileindustryisdevelopingrapidlyVehiclemanufacturersandpartssuppliersareactivelyinvestinginnewtechnologiesandprocesseswhichhasdrivendemandforsingle-piecedie-castingsolutionsintheChinesemarketWebelievethatautomobilemanufacturerdemandforultra-largedie-castingmachineswillremainstrongRiskfactorsEconomicrecoverymaybeweakerthanexpectedSandsChina01928HKNewCapacitytoDriveProlongedGrowthUpgradetoBuyRatingBuy6-18mTPHK3600AnalystNoahHudsonReportDate2023-02-15SummaryWeupgradeSandsChinasinvestmentratingfromNeutraltoBuyandraisetargetpricetoHK3600basedon130x2024EVEBITDAWeforecast2022-2024adjustedpropertyEBITDAof-HK324mnHK185bnandHK318bnrespectivelyInourviewSandsChinastheCompanycurrentsharepricedoesnotadequatelyreflectthecurrentrecoveryandgrowthtrajectoryWeforecastthatby4Q2023SandsChinasrevenuewillhavecaughtupwiththatofits2019levelwhileEBITDAmarginwillstillbecatchingupwithbutnottoofarbehindtheCompanys2019EBITDAmarginof363WeexpectrapidgrowthofSandsChinasrevenuein2023dueto1Openingandramp-upofSandsChinasUS215bninvestmentinitsnewproperties2partialmigrationofVIPjunketcustomerstoVIPdirect3releaseofthreeyearsofpent-upgamingdemand4releaseofexcesssavingsCatalystsInthecomingmonthswethinkthatresultsjustmeetingmarketexpectationswillincreaseinvestorconfidenceWeexpectresultsin1H2023namelymonthlyreportedMacaogrossgamingrevenueandSandsChinas1Q2023resultstogenerallyatleastmeetorbeatmarketexpectationsWealsoexpectthestrengthoflowsharepriceSeethelastpagefordisclaimer4of10MorningResearchFocusanchoringbiaswilldiminishgoingforwardRisksMacroeconomicrecoverymaybeweakerthanexpectedpandemicresurgenceSectorReportAutomobilesSectorBi-WeeklyUpdateThePessimisticSalesForecastCameTrueasPredictedSalesMayReboundStronglyinMid-to-LateFebRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystIvanWuReportDate2023-02-15SummaryH-shareautostockpricesrepeatedlyfluctuatedindicatingthattheindustryismarginallyrecoveringInearlyFebaswepreviouslypredictedstockpricesofHongKong-listedNEVcompaniesinwouldbeunderpressurebecauseduringtheSpringFestivalconsumptionofautomobileswaslargelysuppressedAmidtheindustrysmarginalrecoveryperioditisexpectedthatcompetitionintheindustrywillintensifyandthetrendofconcentrationinthefirst-tiergroupmaybecomemoreobviousStockpricesofleadingindependentNEVcompanieswithstrongsalesandperformancerealizationcapabilitieswillreboundfirstOpportunitiesintheautosectorstilllieinOEMsandsomecomponentcompanieswillalsobenefitThemarketsmostpessimisticmomentonsaleshaspassedandsalesareexpectedtobeatexpectationsinmid-to-lateFebTheCPCAsretailsalesofPVsinthenarrowsenseinJanwas1293mnunitsdown379yoyand404momRecentlymanycitiesbasedontheirownconditionsintroducedpoliciestoencourageconsumptionofNEVscombinedwiththerecentpricecutsofsomeOEMswhichisexpectedtodrivesalesgrowthbeyondexpectationsThepessimisticsalesforecastduringtheSpringFestivalcametrueaspredictedItisbelievedthattherewillbeawaveofentry-levelconsumersbuyingcarsaftertheSpringFestivalandsalesareexpectedtoreboundstronglyinmid-to-lateFebThecatfisheffectintheindustryhasformedandthestrategyofsacrificingpriceforsalesvolumemaycontinuetoescalateTeslasfurtherpricecuthasintensifiedindustrycompetitionMeanwhilethepricingstrategiesofautoOEMsaredifferentiatedmainlyintheformoflimited-timediscountsundertakingstatesubsidiesanddirectpriceincreasesorpricereductionsAlthoughonlysomeOEMsfolloweduponTeslaspricereductionwebelievethatthecatfisheffecthasformedTeslamaintainsahighGPMcombinedwithcontinuousbreakthroughsintechnologythereisstillroomforpricecutsandtherewillbeanotherwaveofpricecutsinthenextthreemonthsThestrategyofsacrificingpriceforsalesvolumemaycontinuetoescalateAlandscapeofseveralmajorpowersmaintainedandopportunitiesstilllieinOEMsFortheOEMsectorwerecommendGeelyAuto00175HKGreatWallMotor-H02333HKandLiAuto-W02015HKforthecomponentssectorwerecommendNexteer01316HKRiskwarning1Increasingindustrycompetition2salesandpoliciesmayfallshortofexpectationsMarketStrategyStrongLaborMarketMayNotIndicateSoftLandingAnalystEvanLiReportDate2023-02-15SummaryThestronger-than-expectedJanuarynonfarmpayrollemploymentdataintheUSdampenedoptimisticmarketsentimentMeanwhileinterestrateexpectationsarerisingcausingUSstocksandgoldtoretreatsomewhatUSFederalReserveFedofficialsmadehawkishstatementsindicatingthatinterestrateswillbeHigherforlongercomparedtomarketexpectationsThecurrentmarketexpectationofendpointrateis52higherthanthemedianof51intheFedsSEPforecastupnearly30bpfromlastweekDoesstrongemploymentdatameanthattheUSeconomywillnotenterintoarecessionInfactlowunemploymentratecouldalsobealeadingindicatorofarecession1Fromahistoricalperspectiveunemploymentratetypicallyreachesacyclicallowbeforetheonsetofarecessionwhilethepeakofinflationoftenprecedesarecession2FromtheperspectiveofbusinesscycletheUSeconomyiscurrentlyinastagflationaryphasewheredemandiscontractingandinflationremainselevatedDuringthisphasethemomentumoftheeconomyisstillpresentAstheeconomygrowsandmorepeoplefindjobsunemploymentrateoftencontinuestodeclinebeforetheonsetofarecessionSeethelastpagefordisclaimer5of10MorningResearchFocusAdditionallythestructuralshortageinthejobmarketskewsnonfarmemploymentdataInrecentmonthsthemajorityofnonfarmjobadditionshavecomefromleisureandhospitalityprofessionalandbusinessservicesindustrieswhichdonotfullyreflecttheoverallstateoftheUSjobmarketTheCovidpandemicdisruptedthestructureoftheUSjobmarketandresultedinvaryingdegreesofrecoveryfordifferentindustriesThelagimpactofratehikesarealsodifferentacrossindustriesHencethecurrentjobmarketmaynotbeasstrongasthedatasuggestsTotracksignsofapotentialrecessionintheUSeconomyitsimportanttocloselymonitorseveralkeyindicatorsincludingThesixindicatorsreferredtobytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearchNBERindefiningarecessionCurrentlythewholesaleandretailtradeindexhasturnednegativeyear-over-yearwhileemploymentandconsumerspendingindicatorsremainstrongTheLeadingEconomicIndexLEIandtheOECDcompositeleadingindicatorCEIindicesarebothcurrentlynearthedepthsseenduringpreviousrecessionsTheNFIBSmallBusinessIndexandtheconsumersentimentindexBothoftheseindicesarecurrentlyatrelativelylowlevelscomparedtotheirhistoricalrangeExpectationsoftheend-pointratemayberevisedupwardsInthisscenariotheUSequitymarketmayfacesomesellingpressureandgrowthstocksmayexperiencesomedownwardcorrectionTheUSbondmarketmayalsobeimpactedasthe10-yearTreasuryyieldratemayfluctuatewithinarangeof35to40duetorisingexpectationsofaneconomicsoftlandingandinterestratehikesAdditionallyupwardpressureontheUSdollarandbondyieldsmayresultinbearishpressureongoldpricesRiskwarningLarger-than-forecastedFedrateriseacceleratedglobaleconomicrecessionintensifiedfinancialmarketrisksChineseTranslation中文翻译行业和公司焦点TableFocuschiNil无TableLatestchi最新报告行业报告电子行业双周报虽然2022下半年销售疲软但2022年全球半导体销售总额仍创下历史新高评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员柳晨报告日期2023-02-15报告摘要2022年全球半导体销售额同比微增32行业正面的长期增长预期不变根据美国半导体行业协会的数据统计全球半导体行业总销售额由2020年的4404亿美元同比增长262至2021年的5559亿美元主要受新冠疫情激发的新增需求所推动2022年全球半导体行业销售额同比微增32至5735亿美元主要得益于2022年上半年的强劲销售但被2022年下半年的销售下滑所大部分抵消我们认为在市场需求以及宏观经济的周期性变化下半导体产业链上的短期波动一定程度上是无法避免的然而半导体产品构成了人类社会数字化转型的底层基础因此全球半导体市场的长期需求仍然是相当强劲的英特尔预计全球个人电脑的长期潜在市场规模将维持稳定2022年第三季度英特尔预估2023年全球个人电脑市场规模将在270亿台至295亿台考虑到客户方面去库存的持续英特尔当前认为前述预测范围的下限在2023年是更有可能实现的基于较为保守的更新率假设以及稍高的装机量假设英特尔预计全球个人电脑的长期潜在市场需求将维持在每年3亿台左右英特尔还认为市场在2023年上半年仍将承压但下半年将触底反弹这与台积电2023年一月份的市场展望基本一致电子行业2023年的三大投资主线1苹果革命性的MR设备将引领新一轮的全球消费电子创新周期2新能源汽Seethelastpagefordisclaimer6of10MorningResearchFocus车和智能化汽车渗透率的进一步提升将利好汽车电子供应链以及3来自美国及其盟友的制裁升级将强化中国在集成电路制造领域的自主可控战略中长期来看市场将迎来更多半导体产品和设备的国产替代行业报告有色金属行业双周报更多不确定因素将影响金属价格评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员郭勇报告日期2023-02-15报告摘要对美联储加息的预期发生改变金属价格的波动区间将扩大国内新增社会融资规模反映制造业的融资需求可观且经济复苏可见但是房地产行业的融资需求依旧疲弱基于最新的经济数据市场对美联储加息的预期发生改变这将影响到未来的金属价格波动减产不及市场预期铝库存继续增长云南的减产尚未发生而海外原铝产量可能增长欧洲的一些电解铝厂在电价下降之后计划恢复生产而印尼和沙特在2023年可能分别新增50万吨和100万吨新产能由于更多工厂节后恢复生产下游需求在春节后小幅增长消费需求受到高铜价抑制金融市场投资需求的影响增加海外铜矿的生产仍然受到不可控因素的影响这将影响到全球的矿产供应金融投资者对铜的投资需求将对铜价施加更大的影响我们维持有色金属行业跑赢大市的投资评级我们推荐中国宏桥01378HK兴发铝业00098HK和紫金矿业02899HK行业报告机械行业双周报继续看好制造业复苏机器人行业迎来机遇评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员白舸报告日期2023-02-15报告摘要中国企业信贷持续好转推动制造业复苏中国调整宏观政策以支撑经济企业中长期贷款持续提升1月企业中长期贷款人民币35000亿元同比增加667创历史新高在国家政策的支持下本轮企业中长期贷款的提升主要由制造业推动我们认为工业自动化设备或将进入上行周期我们看好机床行业注塑机行业压铸机行业的机会国家政策支持力度加大中国机器人产业将蓬勃发展中国对机器人产业的支持力度不断加大工业机器人及服务机器人产业有望快速发展1月中国发布机器人应用行动实施方案加快推动机器人的各项应用近期ChatGPT带动了市场对人工智能的关注具备先进人工智能技术的人形机器人将在未来获得更广泛的应用新能源汽车渗透率继续提升我们继续看好一体化压铸行业尽管中国1月汽车销量有所下滑但新能源汽车渗透率继续提升中国新能源汽车产业发展迅速主机厂和零部件供应商对新技术新工艺的投入较为积极带动了中国市场对一体压铸方案的需求我们认为汽车制造商对超大型压铸机的需求将维持强劲风险因素经济复苏不及预期Seethelastpagefordisclaimer7of10MorningResearchFocus金沙中国01928HK新物业将推动长期增长上调至买入评级买入6-18m目标价HK3600分析员NoahHudson报告日期2023-02-15报告摘要我们将金沙中国的投资评级由中性上调至买入并将目标价上调至3600港元基于130倍2024年EVEBITDA我们预测2022-2024年经调整物业EBITDA分别为-324亿港元185亿港元及318亿港元我们认为金沙中国公司目前的股价并没有充分反映当前的复苏和增长轨迹我们预测到2023年第四季度金沙中国的收入将赶上2019年的水平而EBITDA利润率仍将赶上但幅度不是很大公司2019年363的EBITDA利润率我们预计金沙中国的收入在2023年将快速增长原因是1金沙中国投资215亿美元的新物业将开业和扩大运营2VIP中介客户部分迁移至VIP直销3压抑三年博彩需求的释放4多余储蓄的释放催化剂在未来几个月我们认为只要符合市场预期的业绩就会增加投资者的信心我们预计2023年上半年的业绩即每月报告的澳门博彩总收入和金沙中国2023年第一季度的业绩总体上将至少达到或超过市场预期我们还预计低股价锚定偏见的强度将在未来减弱风险宏观经济复苏弱于预期疫情反复行业报告汽车行业双周报销量悲观预期如期兑现二月中下旬销量或将强劲反弹评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员吴凱翔报告日期2023-02-15报告摘要港股车企股价反复震荡表明行业正在边际修复中二月初正如我们此前预测一般港股新能源车企股价承压因为在春节期间汽车消费受到较大压制行业处于边际修复期间预计行业竞争会加剧头部集中化趋势或更明显销量与业绩兑现能力较强的头部自主新能源车企股价将优先反弹汽车板块机会仍在于整车个别零部件企业也将受益市场基于销量最悲观时刻已过预计二月中下旬销量将超预期乘联会一月狭义乘用车零售销量为1293万辆同比跌379环比跌404近期各地因地制宜推出鼓励新能源汽车消费政策叠加近期部分车企降价有望推动销量增长超预期春节销量悲观预期如期兑现相信春节后会有一波入门消费者购车销量有望于二月中下旬迎来强劲反弹行业鲶鱼效应已形成以价换量策略或将持续升级特斯拉再次降价加剧了行业竞争同时车企定价策略存在差异化主要形式为限时优惠承担国补直接涨价或降价等虽然此次特斯拉降价只有部分车企跟进但我们相信鲶鱼效应已经形成特斯拉保持高毛利率叠加技术端不断突破仍有降价空间未来三个月或将迎来另一波降价潮以价换量策略可能持续升级多强格局维持机会仍在整车整车板块我们推荐吉利汽车00175HK长城汽车-H02333HK和理想汽车-W02015HK零部件板块我们推荐耐世特01316HK风险提示1行业竞争加剧2销量和政策端不及预期Seethelastpagefordisclaimer8of10MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer9of10MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKSENSETIME-W00020HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKVOBILEGROUP03738HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer10of10