事件描述：舜宇光学（“公司”）于2023年2月12日公布了一则盈利预警。基于公司截至2022年12月31日止年度的未经审核管理帐目的初步审阅，预计2022年公司拥有人的应占溢利（“股东净利”）将为人民币22.446亿元至人民币24.940亿元，这与2021年人民币49.880亿元的股东净利相比有着50%至55%的同比下滑。
　　观点评论：50%至55%的股东净利同比下滑略差于我们此前的预期。公司认为利润的下滑主要是由于（1）2022年受疫情反复、芯片短缺、俄乌冲突、通货膨胀以及全球经济的不确定性等因素所影响，智能手机市场的需求疲软以及智能手机摄像头呈现“降规降配”趋势，导致公司手机镜头及手机摄像模组的出货量同比下滑，并加大了平均售价和毛利率的下行压力；以及（2）2022年人民币有所贬值，公司与2018年1月23日发行的6亿美元债券产生了未变现外汇亏损约人民币3.533亿元（非现金项目）。
　　投资建议：我们预计2023年将是苹果的创新大年，一些主力新品的性能将得到显著提高，而其革命性的混合现实（MR）设备也已经呼之欲出。因此，中长期来看整个苹果供应链有望深度受益于需求恢复与产品升级。　然而，加息与长新冠效应给全球消费电子市场带来了更多不确定性。一些投资者相信转折点将出现在2023年下半年。我们目前对公司的投资评级为“收集”，每股目标价为131.00港元，目标价相当于24.0倍2024年市盈率。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus13February2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus新闻焦点今NewsFocus行业和公司焦点晨IndustryandCompanyFocus焦ResearchSunnyOptical02382HK2022ShareholdersNetProfitisExpectedtoDeclineby50-55Slightly点MissingExpectationsMorning舜宇光学02382HK预计2022年股东净利将同比减少50至55略差于预期LatestReports最新报告摘要TypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题TheHKMarketMayBenefitintheMediumTermDespitetheRecentMarketStrategy10February2023Pullback证告券ReportAppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports研报后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版究究报研HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance告31000券14000EquityResearch29000证12000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Feb22May22Aug22Nov22Feb23Feb22May22Aug22Nov22Feb23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover2119042-201119781896030恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE712619-256322442703849国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE436222-4583807070035621500科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasat10FebSeethelastpagefordisclaimer1of6MorningResearchFocusPleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchandStrategyTeamWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJNewsFocus新闻焦点TableNewsFocusMarketNews市场新闻FedofficialsaidtheUSisincreasingthechancesofasoftlandingtheUSFedneedstoachieveratesabove5andthenpauseratehike美联储官员表示美国正在增加实现经济软着陆的可能性美国需要实现5以上的利率然后暂停加息JapansPrimeMinisterFumioKishidaplanstonamenewBankofJapangovernoranddeputygovernorsonFeb14日本首相岸田文雄计划于2月14日提名新任日本央行行长副行长人选IndustryTableFocusandCompanyFocusSunnyOptical02382HK2022ShareholdersNetProfitisExpectedtoDeclineby50-55SlightlyMissingExpectationsAnalystJackLiuWhathappenedSunnyOpticaltheCompanyhasannouncedaprofitalertstatementon12Feb2023BasedonthepreliminaryreviewoftheCompanysunauditedmanagementaccountsfortheyearended31December2022itisexpectedthattheCompanysprofitattributabletoownersoftheCompanyshareholdersnetprofitin2022willamounttoRMB22446milliontoRMB24940millionrepresentinga50to55YoYdecreasecomparedtotheshareholdersnetprofitofRMB49880millionin2021CommentsandViewsThe50to55YoYdecreaseinshareholdersnetprofitisslightlyworsethanourpreviousexpectationTheCompanyconsiderssuchprofitdeclinewasmainlydueto1thefactorssuchastheresurgenceofthepandemicchipshortageRussian-Ukrainianconflictinflationandtheuncertaintiesintheglobaleconomyin2022thesmartphonemarketexperiencedweakdemandandthesmartphonecamerashowedatrendofdespecificationwhichresultedintheYoYdecreaseoftheshipmentvolumeofhandsetlenssetsandhandsetcameramodulesoftheCompanywithincreasingpressureonaveragesellingpricesandgrossprofitmarginsand2thedepreciationoftheRMBin2022resultedinanunrealisedforeignexchangelossamountingtoapproximatelyRMB3533millionwhichwascausedbytheUSD6000millionbondsissuedbytheCompanyon23January2018whichwasanon-cashitemInvestmentsuggestionWeanticipatethat2023willbeavitalyearforApplesinnovationasseveralmajornewproductswillhavesignificantperformanceimprovementandarevolutionarymixedrealityMRproductisonthehorizonThereforethewholeApplesupplychainwillbenefitmassivelyfromdemandresumptionandproductupgradeinthemid-to-longtermHoweverinterestratehikesandlong-COVIDeffectbringsmoreuncertaintyintotheglobalconsumerelectronicsmarketSomeinvestorsbelievetheturningpointwillappearin2H23OurcurrentinvestmentratingfortheCompanyisAccumulatewithatargetpriceofHK13100persharerepresenting240x2024FPERSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of6MorningResearchFocusTableLatestLatestReportsMarketStrategy-TheHKMarketMayBenefitintheMediumTermDespitetheRecentPullbackAnalystJakeWangReportDate2023-02-10SummaryTheHongKongstockmarketsawsignificantpullbackafterexperiencingagoodstartaftertheChineseNewYearTheHSIfell45fromlastweekandmostofsectorsthatpreviouslybenefitedfromtheaccelerationinChinaseconomicrecoveryrecordednotableWoWdecreaseThemajorcauseforthecorrectionwasthatpositiveexpectationsondomesticeconomicrecoveryhadalreadybeenbasicallypricedinvaluationandriskpremiumoftheHongKongstockmarkethavereturnedtoreasonablelevelsAlsoadirectinhibitorthatledtotherecentpullbackwassignsofdeteriorationinSino-USrelationswhichtookatollonrisksentimenttowardsoverseascapitalProfit-to-lossratiosforHongKongstocksdeterioratedcomparedwithA-sharestocksgiventherecentrapidrisesTheHSIiscurrentlytradingat105xforward12MPEwhichisnearthehistoricalaverageThesamegoesfortheCSI300IndexintheA-sharemarketHoweverthedecreaseinequityriskpremiumERPoftheHSIwasclearlylargerthanthatofCSI300IndexwhichindicatedthattheallocationadvantageoftheHongKongstockmarketrelativetotheA-sharemarkethasdecreasedmarginallySeveralsectorsintheHongKongstockmarkethavebasicallyreflectedpreviouspositivesandappearedtoberelativelyovervaluedDespitethemarginaldecreaseinERPwebelieveChinaseconomicrecoverywillremainasthemedium-termfocalpointandtheHongKongstockmarketmaysignificantlybenefitTheHongKongstockmarketusuallyreceivesmoreattentionandexhibitslargerupsidemomentumthantheA-sharemarketduringupwardeconomiccyclesSectorsintheHongKongstockmarketusuallyexhibitmoresensitivitytopositiveeconomicexpectationsandachieveexcessreturnsrelativetocomparableA-sharesectorsInadditiontheHongKongstockmarketismoresensitivetooverseasliquiditychangestheHSImayincreaseapproximately11giventheaverage10bpdropinthe10-yearUSTreasuryyieldwhiletheCSI300Indexonlyincreasedby04underthesamecircumstancesLookingaheadwethinkthatforeigncapitalmaycontinuetotradeonChinaseconomicrevivalgiventheexpectedeasinginoverseasliquidityconditionsOurlatestviewsontheHongKongstockmarket1TheHSIiscurrentlystandingatanimportantsentimentlevelaround22000Intheabsenceoffurthercatalystsweexpectshort-termconsolidationintheHongKongstockmarketwhichmayleadtodiversifiedsectorperformance2IntermsofSino-USrelationsitmaynotposesystemicriskforthetimebeingFromhistoricalexperiencetheimpactisexpectedtobe5-103TechnicalcorrectionscausedbypreviousrapidincreasesmaynotbuilduptoapivotpointforthemediumtermWemaintainapositiveoutlookonChinaseconomicrecoveryaswellaspotentialupwardrevisioninindexearningsexpectationsMeanwhilethemarkethasalsobeentradingonoverseasliquidityeasingandwemayseefurtherdecreaseinUSTreasuryyieldsWeexpecttheHSIvaluationtorecovertoitspreviouslevelatthebeginningof2022MajorcatalystsforfurtherupsideintheHongKongstockmarketwouldbeaspikeinChinassocialfinancingvolumeorashiftintheUSFederalReservesFedpolicystancewhichmaybothoccurnearerthesecondquarterWecontinuetofavorsectorsthatmaybenefitfromimprovementintheChineseeconomyoroverseasliquidity1ConsumercyclicalnamesthatbenefitedfromimprovementinconsumptionseemedfairlypricedgiventhepreviousrallywhileactivereturnsforsomeindividualcompaniesremainCurrentlyweprefersectorsthatarestillundervaluedincludingautomobilesconsumerelectronicsetc2Weremainbullishonsectorsrelatedtothepropertymarketsuchasrealestatebankinginsuranceandmaterialssectorsanticipatingcontinuouspolicystimulustopromotehousingdemand3Wearealsooptimisticonliquidity-sensitivesectorsincludingpharmaceuticalssemiconductorpreciousmetalsgoldetcRiskFactors1Chinasstimuluspoliciesmaynotbesufficient2Fedmonetarytighteningmayexceedexpectation3impactfromSino-UStensionsmayexceedexpectationSeethelastpagefordisclaimer3of6MorningResearchFocusChineseTranslation中文翻译TableFocuschi行业和公司焦点舜宇光学02382HK预计2022年股东净利将同比减少50至55略差于预期分析员柳晨事件描述舜宇光学公司于2023年2月12日公布了一则盈利预警基于公司截至2022年12月31日止年度的未经审核管理帐目的初步审阅预计2022年公司拥有人的应占溢利股东净利将为人民币22446亿元至人民币24940亿元这与2021年人民币49880亿元的股东净利相比有着50至55的同比下滑观点评论50至55的股东净利同比下滑略差于我们此前的预期公司认为利润的下滑主要是由于12022年受疫情反复芯片短缺俄乌冲突通货膨胀以及全球经济的不确定性等因素所影响智能手机市场的需求疲软以及智能手机摄像头呈现降规降配趋势导致公司手机镜头及手机摄像模组的出货量同比下滑并加大了平均售价和毛利率的下行压力以及22022年人民币有所贬值公司与2018年1月23日发行的6亿美元债券产生了未变现外汇亏损约人民币3533亿元非现金项目投资建议我们预计2023年将是苹果的创新大年一些主力新品的性能将得到显著提高而其革命性的混合现实MR设备也已经呼之欲出因此中长期来看整个苹果供应链有望深度受益于需求恢复与产品升级然而加息与长新冠效应给全球消费电子市场带来了更多不确定性一些投资者相信转折点将出现在2023年下半年我们目前对公司的投资评级为收集每股目标价为13100港元目标价相当于240倍2024年市盈率TableLatestchi最新报告NilSeethelastpagefordisclaimer4of6MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer5of6MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKSENSETIME-W00020HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKVOBILEGROUP03738HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecon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