中国联通（“公司”）进行会计估计变更，调整光纤类资产预计净残值率。中国联通发布公告称自2022年12月1日起，将光缆类资产预计净残值率由3%调整至0%。此次变更主要是考虑到光缆类资产拆除费用高、回收价值低等因素，且参考了同行业其他运营商的情况。经过中国联通的初步测算，此次变更预计会增加2022年度固定资产折旧额约人民币23.5亿元，同时影响2022年公司权益持有者应占盈利约人民币17.6亿元。
　　我们认为会计估计变更虽将影响公司2022年全年的股东净利，但并不影响公司的基本面。我们预计2022年移动服务收入和固网宽带收入将同比稳步增长，而产业互联网业务的收入增长将在25%至30%之间。而尽管此次公司改变会计估计带来的固定资产折旧有所上升，但2022年的股东净利增速仍会实现近3年的新高，意味着此次在会计估计调整后的股东净利增长仍会超过15%；如若剔除此次会计估计变更的影响，股东净利同比升幅将超过27.3%。我们认为未来几年公司的股东净利将会稳步地提升，同时鉴于预期现金状况稳定，派息率也有望得到提升，因此我们认为未来公司的派息水平可能会超过市场预期。
　　我们维持“买入”的投资评级。鉴于公司稳步上升的每股盈利和强劲的现金状况，我们预计未来派息将超过市场预期。因此我们维持“买入”的投资评级。
　　催化剂：派息和派息率的上升；产业互联网业务边界的拓展；创新业务子公司分拆上市。
　　风险提示：产业互联网业务增速慢于预期；竞争加剧使得ARPU承压。

研究报告全文：股票研究TableTitleFlashNoteChinaUnicom00762HKGinYu余劲同EquityResearch8675523976686快讯中国联通00762HKginyugtjascomhk19January2023TheTableSChangeummaryinAccountingEstimatesWontAffecttheCompanysFundamentals会计估计变更并不影响公司基本面快ChinaUnicomtheCompanymadeachangeinaccountingestimatesandadjustedtheexpectednet讯residualvaluerateofopticalcableassetsChinaUnicomannouncedthatstartingfrom1Dec2022theFlashNoteexpectednetresidualvaluerateofopticalcableassetswillbeadjustedfrom3to0ThischangeismainlyduetofactorssuchasthehighdecommissioningcostandlowrecyclingvalueofopticalcableassetsandwithreferencetothepracticesofpeeroperatorsAccordingtoChinaUnicomsestimatesthischangeisexpectedtoincreasethedepreciationexpensesoffixedassetsbyapproximatelyRMB235billionin2022andatthesametimeaffecttheCompanysshareholdersnetprofitbyapproximatelyRMB176billionin2022WebelievethatalthoughthechangeinaccountingestimateswillaffecttheCompanysshareholdersnetprofitin2022itwillnotaffecttheCompanysfundamentalsWeexpectmobileservicerevenueandfixed-linebroadbandrevenuetogrowsteadilyyoyin2022whileindustryinternetbusinessrevenuewillgrowby25-30AlthoughthedepreciationexpensesoffixedassetswillincreaseduetotheCompanyschangein证accountingestimatesthistimeshareholdersnetprofitgrowthin2022willstillreacha3-yearhighwhichmeansthatyoygrowthofshareholdersnetprofitafteraccountingestimateadjustmentswillstillexceed15if券theimpactoftheseaccountingestimatesisexcludedshareholdersnetprofitwouldincreasebymorethan研273yoyWebelievethattheCompanysshareholdersnetprofitwillincreasesteadilyinthenextfewyears告究meanwhilegiventheexpectedstablecashpositionthedividendpayoutratioisalsoexpectedtoincrease报报ThereforewebelievethattheCompanysdividendpayoutlevelmayexceedmarketexpectationsinthefuture告究WemaintaintheinvestmentratingasBuyGivensteadilyrisingEPSandstrongcashpositionweexpectEquityResearchReport研dividendpayouttoexceedmarketexpectationsinthefutureThuswemaintaintheinvestmentratingasBuy券CatalystsIncreaseindividendpayoutanddividendpayoutratioexpansionofindustryinternetbusinessTabboundariesspin-offandseparatelistingofinnovativebusinesssubsidiariesleI证RiskwarningSlower-than-expectedgrowthofindustryinternetbusinesspressurefromincreasedcompetitionnfo1onARPU通信行业TelecommunicationsSectorTableInfo2中中国外告联运报通输究研ChinaUnicom00762HKChina00762Unicom券SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3证TablePageHeaderChinaUnicom00762HK中国联通公司进行会计估计变更调整光纤类资产预计净残值率中国联通发布公告称自2022年12月1日起将光缆类资产预计净残值率由3调整至0此次变更主要是考虑到光缆类资产拆除费用高回收价值低等因素且参考了同行业其他运营1raMthgiRelbaT商的情况经过中国联通的初步测算此次变更预计会增加2022年度固定资产折旧额约人民币235亿元同时影响2022年公司权益持有者应占盈利约人民币176亿元我们认为会计估计变更虽将影响公司2022年全年的股东净利但并不影响公司的基本面我们预计2022年移动服务收入和固网宽带收入将同比稳步增长而产业互联网业务的收入增长将在25至30之间而尽管此次公司改变会计估计带来的固定资产折旧有所上升但2022年的股东净利增速仍会实现近3年的新高意味着此次在会计估计调整后的股东净利增长仍会超过15如若剔除此次会计估计变更的影响股东净利同比升幅将超过273我们认为未来几年公司的股东净利将会稳步地提升同时鉴于预期现19January2023金状况稳定派息率也有望得到提升因此我们认为未来公司的派息水平可能会超过市场预期我们维持买入的投资评级鉴于公司稳步上升的每股盈利和强劲的现金状况我们预计未来派息将超过市场预期因此我们维持买入的投资评级催化剂派息和派息率的上升产业互联网业务边界的拓展创新业务子公司分拆上市风险提示产业互联网业务增速慢于预期竞争加剧使得ARPU承压2raMthgiRelbaT00762HK中国联通ChinaUnicom1raMthgiRelbaTFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of3TablePageHeaderChinaUnicom00762HKCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18months1raMthgiRelbaTRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutral19January2023Reduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinition2raMthgiRelbaTOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKSINOHYTEC02402HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroup00762HKcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport中国联通6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesChinaUnicomDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisks1raMthgiRelbaTandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of3