对美联储加息的预期发生改变，金属价格的波动区间将扩大。国内新增社会融资规模反映制造业的融资需求可观且经济复苏可见，但是房地产行业的融资需求依旧疲弱。基于最新的经济数据，市场对美联储加息的预期发生改变，这将影响到未来的金属价格波动。
　　减产不及市场预期，铝库存继续增长。云南的减产尚未发生，而海外原铝产量可能增长。欧洲的一些电解铝厂在电价下降之后计划恢复生产，而印尼和沙特在2023年可能分别新增50万吨和100万吨新产能。由于更多工厂节后恢复生产，下游需求在春节后小幅增长。
　　消费需求受到高铜价抑制，金融市场投资需求的影响增加。海外铜矿的生产仍然受到不可控因素的影响，这将影响到全球的矿产供应。金融投资者对铜的投资需求将对铜价施加更大的影响。
　　我们维持有色金属行业“跑赢大市”的投资评级。我们推荐中国宏桥（01378 HK）、兴发铝业（00098 HK）和紫金矿业（02899 HK）。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportNonferrousMetalsSectorKevinGuo郭勇行业报告有色金属行业8675523976671yongguogtjascomhk15February2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyUpdateMoreUncertainFactorsWillImpactMetal行Price业双周报更多不确定因素将影响金属价格ExpectationsontheFederalReservesinterestratehikevariedmetal报pricefluctuationrangemayextendDomesticnewlyaddedsocialRatingTableInvestInfoOutperform告financingscaledatareflectedthatfinancingdemandfromthemanufacturingSectorReportMaintainedsectorswasgoodandeconomicrecoveryisvisiblebutfinancingdemandfromthepropertysectorwasstillweakMarketexpectationsonUSFederal评级跑赢大市维持ReservesFedinterestratehikesvariedbasedonthelatesteconomic2datawhichwillimpactfuturemetalpricefluctuationNonferrousmetalssectorperformanceProductioncutwaslowerthanmarketexpectationandaluminum有色金属行业表现inventorycontinuedtogrowProductioncutinYunnanProvincehasnot1400returntakenplacewhileoverseasprimaryaluminumoutputmaygrowSome1200aluminumsmeltersinEuropehaveplanstoresumeproductionafter1000electricitypricedeclinesandIndonesiaandSaudiArabiamayadd05million800600tonsand1milliontonsofnewcapacityin2023Downstreamdemand400证increasedslightlyaftertheChineseNewYearasmorefactoriesresumed200productionaftertheholidayperiod00券告-200Consumptiondemandwasrestrainedbyhighcopperpriceimpactfrom研-400报financialmarketinvestmentdemandisincreasingProductionfrom-600究overseascoppermineswasstilldisturbedbyuncontrollablefactorswhich-800Feb22Apr22Jun22Aug22Oct22Dec22Feb23究ResearchReportwillimpactglobalminingsupplyFinancialinvestorsinvestmentdemandincopperaluminumzincleadnickeltin报研copperwillexertmoreinfluenceoncopperprice告SourceBloomberg券WemaintainOutperforminvestmentratingforthenonferrousmetalsEquitysectorWerecommendChinaHongqiao01378HKXingfaAluminium证00098HKZijinMining02899HK对美联储加息的预期发生改变金属价格的波动区间将扩大国内新增社会融资规模反映制造业的融资需求可观且经济复苏可见但是房地产行业的融资需求依旧疲弱基于最新的经济数据市场对美联储加息的预期发生改变这将影响到未来的金属价格波动减产不及市场预期铝库存继续增长云南的减产尚未发生而海外原铝产量可能增长T欧洲的一些电解铝厂在电价下降之后计划恢复生产而印尼和沙特在2023年可能分别新a增50万吨和100万吨新产能由于更多工厂节后恢复生产下游需求在春节后小幅增长b消费需求受到高铜价抑制金融市场投资需求的影响增加海外铜矿的生产仍然受到不可有控因素的影响这将影响到全球的矿产供应金融投资者对铜的投资需求将对铜价施加更l色大的影响金e我们维持有色金属行业跑赢大市的投资评级我们推荐中国宏桥01378HK兴属发铝业00098HK和紫金矿业02899HK行业LefNonferrousSectorMetalstMarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of8See4321RiskHKAluminiumXingfa00098Mining02899ZijinHKWInformimpactfHencecopperpriceThetradingvolumeofmeantimtheproductionitsBambasagainofsupplyMMGasLasminingceasedisCopperand0tonsmillioninventorysheetweekperiodDDprimaryaluminumoutputresultfromoverseasgrowmay2023indeclinesProvinceYunnanproductioncapacityneworrecoverycapacityproductionaluminumincutProductionSAluminumpricestimulatemetalmorefluctuationmisseindexCPIofspeedretreattheIffluctuationhikerateinterestFedonexpectationsMarketbotheinagaincheckedbetoneedsspeedrecoveryitsandbehindleftwassectorpropertythefinancingdemandfromthemanufacturingsectorswasgoodandnewlyaddedESectorthupplysideupplyvariedhikerateinterestFedstheonxpectationsownstreamdemandincreasedemandownstreamemandvestmentsuggestionvestmentemaintainmaintaineGrowthofNewratevehiclesmayenergyChinasmacroeconomygrowthbemaylowerthanmarketexpectationsrateworkReturnfactoriesprocessdownstreamtoofConflictRussiabetweenandUkrainemayeincreasinglasswastaaiytlztortorcceauiulmnmwirealuminumaluminumrecycledofrateutilizationcapacityPpagandIndonesiaandSaudiArabiamayadd05milliontonsand1milliontonsofnewcapacityin2023respectivelyUpdatesideConsumptiondemandwasrestrainedbyrestraineddemandwasConsumptionoutoaaiytlztortolaiglmnmarctnopnewascompaniesfabricatingaluminumleadingofrateutilizationcapacityroductioniseupstillgrstillProductionProductionfoeinventoryintradeininventoryesocialfinancingscaler50OutperformdisclaimerrdcinfvresoprminecopperoverseasofProductionYunnanProvincehasnotnothasProvinceYunnandidowing21pptsinancialmilliontonsrespectivelytonsmillionnot50cutSMMcommercialinventoryofaluminumaluminumbarincreasebaraluminumaluminumofinventorycommercialSMMtakeinvestmentratingforratinginvestmentpptswaslowerthanlowerwasmarketexpectationinvestorsplaced20ppts20slightlyaftertheChineseNewYearasmorefactoriesresumefactoriesmoreasYearNewChinesetheafterslightlyisiswasSomealuminumsmeltersinEuropeSomealuminuminsmeltersthetlgoigadontemcnupindmnasilekwihilegonweighwillwhichweakstillwasdemandconsumptiondownstreamandgrowingstillinvestmentdemanddomesticpropertysectorhasnotimprovedwhichreflectedcurrentweakfRMB598highertrillionthanmarketconsensusandtbeakenakencontinues16Plowerthanlowermarketthanexpectationsvariedbasedonthelatesteconomicdatawhichwillimpactfuturemetalpricemetalfutureimpactwillwhichdataeconomiclatesttheonbasedvariedthetheplacespptstotopptsmaymayexpectationsthentheinterestratehikerateinterestthethenexpectationsnonferrousshighwhileoverseaswhileasilitrebucnrlalfcoswihilmatglobalimpactwillwhichfactorsuncontrollablebydisturbedstillwasmissexpectationeapielcutorneaextendmayrangefluctuationpricemetal444pricecopperincopperincopper4econommetals7andtransport0commencementwillinfluenceexertcoppermorepriceonaluminumextrusionproductsproductsextrusionaluminumprimaryaluminumprimaryaluminuminventorycontinuedsectoric57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