港股车企股价反复震荡，表明行业正在边际修复中。二月初，正如我们此前预测一般，港股新能源车企股价承压，因为在春节期间，汽车消费受到较大压制。行业处于边际修复期间，预计行业竞争会加剧，头部集中化趋势或更明显。销量与业绩兑现能力较强的头部自主新能源车企股价将优先反弹。汽车板块机会仍在于整车，个别零部件企业也将受益。
　　市场基于销量最悲观时刻已过，预计二月中下旬销量将超预期。乘联会一月狭义乘用车零售销量为129.3万辆，同比跌37.9%，环比跌40.4%。近期各地因地制宜推出鼓励新能源汽车消费政策、叠加近期部分车企降价，有望推动销量增长超预期。春节销量悲观预期如期兑现，相信春节后会有一波入门消费者购车，销量有望于二月中下旬迎来强劲反弹。
　　行业鲶鱼效应已形成，“以价换量”策略或将持续升级。特斯拉再次降价加剧了行业竞争。同时，车企定价策略存在差异化，主要形式为限时优惠、承担国补、直接涨价或降价等。虽然此次特斯拉降价只有部分车企跟进，但我们相信鲶鱼效应已经形成。特斯拉保持高毛利率，叠加技术端不断突破，仍有降价空间，未来三个月或将迎来另一波降价潮。“以价换量”策略可能持续升级。
　　多强格局维持，机会仍在整车。整车板块，我们推荐吉利汽车（00175 HK）、长城汽车-H（02333 HK）和理想汽车-W（02015 HK）；零部件板块，我们推荐耐世特（01316 HK）。
　　风险提示：1）行业竞争加剧；2）销量和政策端不及预期。
　　

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportAutomobilesSectorIvanWu吴凱翔行业报告汽车行业85225092649ivanwugtjascomhk15February2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyUpdateThePessimisticSalesForecastCameTrue行asPredictedSalesMayReboundStronglyinMid-to-LateFeb双周报销量悲观预期如期兑现二月中下旬销量或将强劲反弹业H-shareautostockpricesrepeatedlyfluctuatedindicatingthattheindustry报ismarginallyrecoveringInearlyFebaswepreviouslypredictedstockpricesRatingTableInvestInfoOutperformofHongKong-listedNEVcompaniesinwouldbeunderpressurebecauseduringMaintained告ReportSectortheSpringFestivalconsumptionofautomobileswaslargelysuppressedAmidtheindustrysmarginalrecoveryperioditisexpectedthatcompetitionintheindustry评级跑赢大市维持willintensifyandthetrendofconcentrationinthefirst-tiergroupmaybecomemoreobviousStockpricesofleadingindependentNEVcompanieswithstrong2salesandperformancerealizationcapabilitieswillreboundfirstOpportunitiesinHK-listedOEMsandHSIperformancetheautosectorstilllieinOEMsandsomecomponentcompanieswillalsobenefit港股上市整车企业和恒生指数表现Themarketsmostpessimisticmomentonsaleshaspassedandsalesare10expectedtobeatexpectationsinmid-to-lateFebTheCPCAsretailsalesof0PVsinthenarrowsenseinJanwas1293mnunitsdown379yoyand404-10momRecentlymanycitiesbasedontheirownconditionsintroducedpoliciesto-20encourageconsumptionofNEVscombinedwiththerecentpricecutsofsome-30OEMswhichisexpectedtodrivesalesgrowthbeyondexpectationsThe-40证pessimisticsalesforecastduringtheSpringFestivalcametrueaspredictedItis-50believedthattherewillbeawaveofentry-levelconsumersbuyingcarsafterthe告-60券SpringFestivalandsalesareexpectedtoreboundstronglyinmid-to-lateFeb-70研报Thecatfisheffectintheindustryhasformedandthestrategyofsacrificing究price究forsalesvolumemaycontinuetoescalateTeslasfurtherpricecuthasintensifiedindustrycompetitionMeanwhilethepricingstrategiesofautoOEMsResearchReportHengSengIndexHK-listedMainAutoOEMs报are研differentiatedmainlyintheformoflimited-timediscountsundertakingstateSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational告subsidiesanddirectpriceincreasesorpricereductionsAlthoughonlysomeOEMs券followeduponTeslaspricereductionwebelievethatthecatfisheffecthasEquityformedTeslamaintainsahighGPMcombinedwithcontinuousbreakthroughsinHKmainOEMsandHSIperformancetechnology证thereisstillroomforpricecutsandtherewillbeanotherwaveofprice港股主要整车企业和恒生指数表现cutsinthenextthreemonthsThestrategyofsacrificingpriceforsalesvolumemaycontinuetoescalate8060Alandscapeofseveralmajorpowersmaintainedandopportunitiesstill40lieinOEMsFortheOEMsectorwerecommendGeelyAuto00175HK20GreatWallMotor-H02333HKandLiAuto-W02015HKforthe0TcomponentssectorwerecommendNexteer01316HK-20a-40Riskwarning1Increasingindustrycompetition2salesandpoliciesmay-60bfallshortofexpectations-80l港股车企股价反复震荡表明行业正在边际修复中二月初正如我们此前预测一般港-100汽202221020224102022610202281020221010202212102023210股新能源车企股价承压因为在春节期间汽车消费受到较大压制行业处于边际修复期车eHSI0017500489011140195802238间预计行业竞争会加剧头部集中化趋势或更明显销量与业绩兑现能力较强的头部自行023330121109866098680201509863主新能源车企股价将优先反弹汽车板块机会仍在于整车个别零部件企业也将受益业SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalL市场基于销量最悲观时刻已过预计二月中下旬销量将超预期乘联会一月狭义乘用车零售销量为万辆同比跌环比跌近期各地因地制宜推出鼓励新能源eAutomobilesSector1293379404汽车消费政策叠加近期部分车企降价有望推动销量增长超预期春节销量悲观预期如f期兑现相信春节后会有一波入门消费者购车销量有望于二月中下旬迎来强劲反弹t行业鲶鱼效应已形成以价换量策略或将持续升级特斯拉再次降价加剧了行业竞争M同时车企定价策略存在差异化主要形式为限时优惠承担国补直接涨价或降价等虽然此次特斯拉降价只有部分车企跟进但我们相信鲶鱼效应已经形成特斯拉保持高毛a利率叠加技术端不断突破仍有降价空间未来三个月或将迎来另一波降价潮以价r换量策略可能持续升级g多强格局维持机会仍在整车整车板块我们推荐吉利汽车00175HK长城汽车-H02333HK和理想汽车-W02015HK零部件板块我们推荐耐世特01316HKin风险提示1行业竞争加剧2销量和政策端不及预期SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of6InternationalSourcethanreboundfastertoexpected1FigurevolumemaycontinuetomayvolumetocontinueeweTeslatechnologyinwithbreakthroughscontinuousGPMhighmaintainsacombinedtheTeslasonpricereductionsdifferentiaescalatetocontinuemayvolumesalesforpricesacrificingofstrategytheandformedhasindustrytheineffectcatfishTheInventoryAlertIexpearepredictedpriceendrecentthewithcombinedNEVsofconsumptionlargepromotetoorderinnarrowsenseinJanFebmidinexpectationsbeattoexpectedaresalesandpassedhassalesonmarketsmomentpessimisticThemostlieandperformancerealizationcapabilitieswillreboundfirstfirsttheincompetitionthatexpectedisitperiodrecoveryduringbecausepressurepredictedpreviouslyweasFebKHongmodelmodelGreabrandAutosraisingofadditionalcapapproximamnUS750thanmoreAutolongalthoughstockpricesofNEVcompaniesinHongKongstockssuggeststhattheautoindustryisinmarginalrecoveryASeelandscapeofseveraloflandscapeinOEMssomand-eivtateewilltherethatbelieve-th100150200250300350-tiergrouptieraktaebynexpectationsbeyondsalesmarket50termperformancetermAccordingtotoAccordinge0-WaGreatHK00175AutosalesmonthYoYRHSYoYmonthsalesAutomonthsalesAutohnAscainfuooieMAutomobileofAssociationChinanewL7modelonmodelL7newPVlas000Units000ongVehiclesalesVehicleJan-21midinstronglyreboundtoctedthestockpricesofNEVOEMshavefluctuatedfluctuatedhaveOEMsNEVofpricesstockthettdmiliteomflimitedofformtheinmainlyedelpieuagaincutpriceTeslasHoweverisalesinJaninsalespagFeb-21AmongthemalthemAmong-tWallMotorfurtherenhancedMar-21listedeApr-21ChiinfondexcutrMay-21disclaimerJun-21thedatafromtfromdatathewethatthebelievecatfisheffecthasformedaJul-21nautostockpric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