研究报告全文：股票研TableTitle黄家玮CompanyReportChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKGaryWong究85225092616EquityResearch公司报告中国建筑国际03311HKgarywonggtjascomhk17February2023IncreaseTableSummaryinProportionofTechnology-DrivenBusinessWillContinuetoDriveUptheCompanysValuation科技带动类业务比重增加将持续推升公司估值公WeraisetheTPtoHK1586representing87x77x69x20222023RatingTableRankBuy司2024EVEBITDAReiterateBuyratingMaintained报1WeexpectconstructionmarketsizeinHongKongtoreachHK300billion评级买入维持告annuallyby2025incontrasttothemarketsviewoftaking5-10years2WeCompanyReportCompanyexpecttheCompanysoverallgrossmargintograduallyincreaseincontrasttothemarketsviewofoverallgrossmarginunderpressure6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK1586Revisedfrom原目标价HK1420WidelyapplicationofprefabricatedconstructionmethodwillbringinnovationsShareprice股价HK9380andchangesthathavenotbeenseenintheconstructionengineeringindustryformanyyearsWethinkChinaStateConstructionInternationalCSCIortheCompanywillleadthenewroundoftechnologyStockperformanceinnovationinconstructionengineeringindustryandtheCompanys股价表现valuationwillgreatlyimproveTableQuotePicofCatalystsTheresettlementhousingprojectinLongguiCeramicsCity200returnBaiyunDistrictGuangzhouofficiallystartedonFebruary6anditisthe证100firstresettlementhousingprojectwhichusethetargetedrepurchase券告00modelinGuangdongProvince100研报Risks1Governmentinfrastructurespendingmaybelowerthanexpected200究究2inflationmayexceedexpectationswhichmaycausepolicytightening3300报possibleworldwideCovidpandemicresurgences研400告我们上调目标价至1586港元对应87倍77倍69倍202220232024年EVEBITDA500券EquityResearchReportResearchEquityFeb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23维持买入评级Tab证HSIindexCHINASTATECONSTRUCTIONINTleI我们预计香港建造市场年度规模将会在年达到亿港元有别于市场认为的120253000建nfo1需要5到10年2我们预计公司整体毛利率将逐步提高有别于市场认为的整体毛利率筑将承压ChangeTablePriceChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Y工装配式建筑法的广泛应用将为建筑工程行业带来多年未见的创新和变革我们认为中国建股价变动1个月3个月1年程筑国际中建国际或公司将引领建筑工程行业新一轮的科技创新公司估值将大幅Abs9711130行提升绝对变动ReltoHSIndex13238121业相对恒指变动催化剂广州白云区龙归陶瓷城安置房项目于2月6日正式动工是广东省首单采用定向AvgsharepriceHKTableI928887回购模式的安置房项目平均股价港元nfo2SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalConstructionEngineeringSectorEngineeringConstruction风险1政府基础设施支出可能低于预期2通胀可能超预期并导致政策收紧3世界各地的疫情可能会出现波动YearTableEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROE年结Profit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率1231HKmHKmHKxHKxHK2020A624586015119111179972310036038120中2021A7731068011349133701120508040543129国2022F9922678371556153601230108046049132建2023F10928188801763133531356307050053136中2024F120490103802061169461507306055059144筑国外TableBaseDataSharesinissuem总股数m50376Majorshareholder大股东COHL648MarketcapHKm市值HKm472527Freefloat自由流通比率352际运3monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数00068458FY23NetgearingFY23净负债股东资金596输HK03311InternationalConstruction52WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK111406950FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元197SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalChinaStateStateChinaSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of6TablePageHeaderChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKEarningsForecastsandTP1raMthgiRelbaTWereiterateBuyratingandraisetheTPtoHK1586WeforecastChinaStateConstructionInternationalsCSCIortheCompanyEPSfor202220232024tobeHK1556HK1763HK2061respectivelywhichrepresentsYoYgrowthof153133169WeraisetheTPtoHK1586representing87x77x69x202220232024EVEBITDAReiterateBuyratingMarketViewsvsOurViews17February2023MarketViews1Itwouldtake5to10yearsforthesizeofconstructionmarketinHongKongtoincreasefromthecurrentHK180billionannuallytoHK300billionannually2TheCompanywouldbeunderpressuretomaintainitsoverallgrossmargininthelongtermOurViews2raMthgiRelbaT1WeexpectannualconstructionengineeringspendinginHongKongtoincreasetoHK300billionby2025Underthecurrentlong-termtrendofde-globalizationHongKongsroleasaninternationaltradetransitcentermaygraduallyweakenFindingneweconomicgrowthpointswillbeanurgenttaskfortheHKSARgovernmenttofulfillitscommitmentinthe2022PolicyAddressofcreatingjobsandimprovingpeopleslivelihoodWethinkthattheinnovationandtechnologyindustrywill03311HKbeamajordirectionandthe14thFive-YearPlanalsoclearlydefinesHongKongsdevelopmentpositionasChinasinternationalinnovationandtechnologycenterHoweverHongKongsinfrastructureandtalentsreserveintheinnovationandtechnologyindustryisseriouslyinsufficientThereforeweexpectinfrastructureprojectssuchasthesecondphaseexpansionoftheScienceParkthefifthphaseexpansionoftheCyberportandtheShenzhen-HongKongScienceand中国建筑国际TechnologyInnovationCooperationZoneinLokMaChauLoopareawillbelaunchedassoonaspossibletocopewiththeeconomictransformationTogetherwiththeinvestmentsinearlystageworkformega-scaleprojectssuchasdevelopmentofNorthernMetropolisandLantauTomorrowVisionweexpectthatpublicconstructionexpenditureswillincreasefromaboutHK80billionayearatpresenttoHK150billioninthenexttwoyearsInadditioninordertomeetthehousingandothersupportingneedsoftheexpectedlargeincreaseofhigh-endtechnicaltalentscomingtoHongKongprivateconstructionexpenditureswillalsoincreasesignificantlyinthenextfewyearsCoupledwiththebacklogofprojectsdelayedduringthepreviousepidemicperiodweexpectprivateconstructionspendingtoincreasefromaboutHK100billionayearatpresenttoHK150billioninthenexttwoyearsThereforeweforecastthatthetotalconstructionworksizeinHongKongwillreachanannualscaleofHK300billionby2025ChinaStateConstructionInternationalFigure1NorthernMetropolisDevelopmentAreaFigure2Shenzhen-HongKongScienceandTechnologyInnovationCooperationZoneinLokMaChauLoopSourcetheStandardHKSourceHongKongEconomicTimesReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of6TablePageHeaderChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HK2WethinktheCompanysoverallgrossmarginwillgrowsteadilyratherthanunderpressureIntermsofgrossmarginthegrossmarginsoftheCompanysbusinessesfromthehighesttothelowestareinvestment1ra-driveMttechnologyhgiR-driveelandbaTconstructionAlthoughthegrossmarginoftheinvestment-drivenbusinessisthehighestittakesupalotoffinancialresourcesintheearlystageofimplementationandthecashflowispoorwhiledespitethatthecashflowoftheconstructionbusinessisgoodthebusinessmodelmainlyreliesoneconomiesofscaleeffectandcostcontrolanditsbusinessprofitmarginissignificantlylowerthantheCompanysoverallprofitmarginAccordingtoourunderstandingtheCompanywillnotrisktoundertakealargernumberofinvestmentprojectswithhigherreceivablescollectionriskjusttopursuitrevenuegrowthoralargernumberofconstructionprojectswithlower-than-targetedgrossmarginsratheritwillfocusoncultivatingand17February2023expandingintotechnology-drivenprojectsthatcanutilizetheCompanyscorecompetitiveadvantagesDuetothewidelyuseofindustrialandmanufacturingapproachesintechnology-drivenprojectsitsignificantlyreduceslaborandmaterialcostswhilestrengtheningqualitymanagementthroughdigitalmanagementapproachContractpricesoftechnology-drivenprojectsarehigherthanthoseoftraditionalconstructionprojectswhileatthesametimewiththeexpansionofproductionscaletheunitcostisgraduallyreducedandgrossmarginfortheseprojectswillgraduallyincreaseAstheproportionoftechnology-drivenprojectsincreasestheCompanysoverallgrossprofitmarginshouldgraduallyincreaseInadditionsince2022theCompanysoperatingcashflowhasreturnedtopositiveafteryearsofheavyinvestmentsingovernmenttargetedrepurchaseGTRprojectswhicheventuallyturnintoacash-generatingbusinessandinthefuturetheCompanywillhavemorefinancialresourcestoinvestinprojectswithhighergrossmarginsHenceweexpectoverallgrossmarginshouldactuallyimprovegraduallyratherthancomingunderpressure2raMthgiRelbaTFigure3ConstructionwithMiCDfMAtechnologyFigure4Innovativematerialsusedforconstruction03311HK中国建筑国际SourcetheCompanySourcetheCompanyInvestmentLogicCSCIwillleadthenewroundoftechnologyinnovationintheconstructionengineeringindustryweexpecttheChinaStateConstructionInternationalCompanysvaluationtogreatlyimproveWethinkthewidelyapplicationoftheprefabricatedconstructionmethodwillbringinnovationsandchangesthathavenotbeenseenintheconstructionengineeringindustryformanyyearsFromtheperspectiveofrevenuetheprefabricatedconstructionmethodsaves12oreven23oftheconstructiontimecomparedwiththetraditionalconstructionmethodenablingcompaniestoundertakeadoubleoreventripleamountofprojectsinthesameamountoftimeandbecausemostoftheprocessesarecompletedinthefactoryitiseasiertousedigitalapproachtoimprovequalitycontrolsimultaneouslyFromtheperspectiveofcostsprefabricatedprojectssavealotofconstructionworkersandeffectivelysolvetheproblemofcontinuousincreaseinwagescausedbylaborshortagesAndbecauseofitsindustrialmanufacturingnaturewiththeincreaseinproductionscaleofprefabricatedconstructionprojectstheunitcostwillactuallydecreaseinsteadofincreaseduetotheincreaseinmanagementdifficultyasintraditionalconstructionmethodsotheprofitmarginwillcontinuetoincreaseCSCIswholly-ownedsubsidiaryChinaStateConstructionHailongTechnologyasthefirstbatchofenterprisestoentertheprefabricatedconstructionmarketinChinahassincebecomethelargestprefabricatedconstructionenterpriseinChinathroughyearsofdevelopmentIthascompletedmorethan240prefabricatedconstructionprojectswithatotalconstructionareaof31millionsquaremetersincludingmanynationallandmarkprojectssuchasthefirstprefabricatedconcretemodularhigh-risebuildingprojectLonghuaZhangkengjingaffordablerentalhousingprojectEvensoReporttheCompanyisstillactivelyinvestinginadvancedtechnologiesintheconstructionengineeringindustrysuchasnewbuildingmaterialsandthecarboncaptureutilizationandstorageCCUStechnologyandhasestablishedapostdoctoralworkstationCompanywiththeChineseAcademyofEngineeringtonurturetalentsandactivelyformulateindustrystandardsTheCompanyscompetitiveadvantagesintheapplicationoftechnologytoconstructionengineeringkeepexpandingWithitsunparalleledSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of6TablePageHeaderChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKtechnologyexperienceandbrandadvantagestheCompanywillcontinuetoleadinthisroundoftechnologicalinnovationintheindustryWethinkaslongasthemarketrealizesthegreatpotentialoftheCompanyscompetitive1raMtadvantagehgiRsintermselbofaTtechnologytheCompanysvaluationwillgreatlyimproveCatalystsTheresettlementhousingprojectofLongguiCeramicsCityinBaiyunDistrictGuangzhouofficiallystartedonFebruary62023TheprojectadoptsthedevelopmentmodeloflimitedlandpricetargetedrepurchaseCSCIbidforthe17February2023landwithalimitedpriceofRMB164billiononDecember152022andwillgraduallyinvestanadditionalofRMB2billioninconstructioncostswithatotalcostofRMB36billionAftercompletionthegovernmentwillpayRMB429billiontorepurchasetheprojectThismodelnoonlyrelievesthegovernmentsfinancialpressurebutalsobringstheCompanyahigherreturnoninvestmentsthanordinarycashconstructionprojectsThisresettlementhousingprojectistheCompanysfirsttargetedrepurchaseprojectinGuangzhouwhilebasedontheCompanysfinancialstrengthandprojectmanagementexperienceinsuchkindweexpectthedevelopmentofsimilarprojectsinGuangdongandotherprovinceswhichhavesufficientfinancialresourcesforprojectrepurchasetoaccelerateRisksWarning2raMthgiRelbaT1Governmentinfrastructurespendingmaybelowerthanexpected2inflationmayexceedexpectationswhichmaycausepolicytightening3possibleworldwideCovidpandemicresurgences03311HKTable2PeersValuationPEPBROEDYEVEBITDACompanyStockCodeCurrencyLastpriceMarketcapmn21A22F23F24F21A22F23F24F22F22F22FChinaStateConstructionInt03311HKHKD93804725370605346080707061295185ChangshaBroadHomesIndus-H02163HKHKD71603491849nana26607080908nanana中国建筑国际ChinaRailwayGroupLtd-H00390HKHKD418015521033292623040303021076178ChinaRailwayConstruction-H01186HKHKD49001148922522191703020202986455ChinaCommunicationsConst-H01800HKHKD400013698932292625020202027163131MetallurgicalCorpOfChin-H01618HKHKD1670728694033292605030202936286ChinaEnergyEngineeringC-H03996HKHKD09409634241453733040303037228naAsiaAlliedInfrastructureH00711HKHKD0530952na78nana0404nana5233105DitGroupLtd00726HKHKD0385119483nanana04nanananananaHanisonConstructionHolding00896HKHKD116012804683nana0303nana37102121SocamDevelopmentLtd00983HKHKD123045962nanana01nanananananaYauLeeHoldingsLtd00406HKHKD13706004088nana0404nana453444ChinaStateConstructionDev00830HKHKD205046241511108158262218142093171ChinaStateConstructionInternationalSimpleAverage12358396206060605915386WeightedAverage4233292704030303925674SourceBloombergReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of6TablePageHeaderChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheetIncomeStatement1BalanceraSheetMthgiRelbaTYearend31DecHKDm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FYearend31DecHKDm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FTotalRevenue624587731099226109281120490PropertyPlantandEquipment53915698616366877157CostofSales53174653278442192711101934InterestinAssociatesJVs2328327735288333051932258GrossProfit928411983148051657018556ConcessionOperatingRights38133785376737493731Long-termReceivables5373054435571566001463015InvestmentandOtherIncomeGainsNet97911978439211099InterestsinInfrastructureProject17February2023SGAExpenses19202279267927322892Investments57145727601363146629OperatingProfit834310901129691475916764OtherNon-currentAssets68757948812683698733TotalNon-currentAssets98804105328110058115651121524FinanceCosts26802668291134303602ShareofProfitsofJVsAssociates25821152749849963Inventories410367507556612ProfitBeforeTax82449385108081217814125TradeandOtherReceivables3816059240633866655669884IncomeTax17601949230426023016ContractAssets1198213468154881703718740ProfitAfterTax648474368504957611110AmountsDuefromJVs7267697899231092812049CashCashEquivalents2245524407238392557528163Non-controllingInterest469635666696729OtherCurrentAssets77329498106231177113064ShareholdersProfitLoss601568017837888010380TotalCurrentAssets880071139571237661324221425112raMthgiRelbaTTotalAssets186811219284233824248074264035BasicEPS11911349155617632061DPS03600405046005000550Short-termBorrowings970710105106101114111698TradePayablesOtherPayablesandAccruals512886056163529657526805403311HKTableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementContractLiabilities85479663106771174512920OtherCurrentLiabilities1039612593140711488615787Yearend31DecHKDm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FTotalCurrentLiabilities799399292298888103524108458ProfitBeforeTax82449385108081217814125中国建筑国际DepreciationandAmortisation416432452474497Long-termBorrowings3548947848502415275355390ChangeinWorkingCapital110699189872766957485OtherNon-currentLiabilities1310412297124921270212927OtherOperatingActivities21221179617516962TotalNon-currentLiabilities4859260146627336545568318CashfromOperatingActivities4532551191754416175TotalLiabilities128532153068161621168979176776CapitalExpenditure548686716787747ShareCapital126126126126126OtherInvestingActivities873425138459297Reserves4896856320618396820075808CashfromInvestingActivities325493867812451044TotalShareholdersEquity4909456446619656832675934MinorityInterest91869770102381076911326IssuanceofShares055000TotalEquity5828066216722047909587260IssuanceRepaymentofDebts396111050289830433195TotalEquityandLiabilities186811219284233824248074264035Dividends44024609495257496122ChinaStateConstructionInternationalOtherFinancingActivities33225771037975BVPS972311205123011356315073CashfromFinancingActivities28816964215727853003TableFinancialRatioCashatBegofYear2260022412243402375825477FinancialRatiosNetChangesinCash13261475919141121292020A2021A2022F2023F2024FForex1137454337309440AddPledgedbankdeposits44688197117GrossMargin149155149152154CashatEndofYear2245524407238392557528163OperatingMargin134141131135139NetMargin9688798186ROA3231343639ROE132129132136144SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalNetGearingRatio600640635596547InterestCoveragex3141454347ReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of6TablePageHeaderChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to517February2023orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableIndustryRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5Orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorable03311HKTableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport中国建筑国际3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERChinaStateConstructionInternationalThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongReportTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage6of6