目前，市场分歧存在于提升的居民储蓄和房贷的提前偿还。这两个方面其实都反映了中国居民消费意愿的下降，或者较弱的居民借贷需求。而在一波提前还贷浪潮的背后，我们认为有两个更为重要的因素。一是当前较低的再贷款利率；二是购房者对于未来房价较为悲观的情绪。在我们看来，较弱的市场气氛可能会持续更长时间，真正的复苏转折可能在今年下半年。从更乐观的角度看，随着市场气氛逐渐转好，考虑到大量的居民存款，我们预计住房销售反弹复苏的幅度可能会更大。
　　 2023年1月份的70城房价数据显示了一些复苏苗头，尤其是在一线城市。今年1月份，一线城市的新房销售价格指数录得0.2%的环比增长，二手房价格指数上涨幅度更明显，环比增长为0.4%。我们认为最新的数据映证了之前的媒体报道，即个别高线城市在春节后，房地产市场气氛有明显好转。进一步，我们认为房地产市场在一线城市的较早回暖，将坚定市场对于今年房地产市场总体复苏的信心。
　　现房销售或将持续利好领先房企。最近，一些地方政府表示将探索实施房地产现房销售试点。我们认为，这将会有助于增强购房人的信心，同时也会利好具备较好信誉以及资金优势的领先房企。我们仍然推荐行业中的国企和优质民企。其中，我们推荐龙湖集团（00960 HK）、金地集团（600383 SH）、保利发展（600048 SH）和万科企业（02202 HK）。
　　风险：1）重新放开前融，行业杠杆上行；以及2）购房需求下行。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportPropertySectorChunliZhan詹春立行业报告房地产行业85225097745jameszhangtjascomhk17February2023OverallTableMainInfoPositiveTrendDespiteSomeDivergences行尽管有一些分歧但总体向好趋势不变业CurrentlymarketdivergenceliesbetweentherisinghouseholdsavingsandawaveofearlymortgagepaymentBothsidesshowedChineseRatingTableInvestInfo报OutperformhouseholdsreluctancetoconsumeorweakdemandforcreditBehindtheMaintained告waveofmortgageprepaymentwebelievetherearetwoimportantfactorsOneSectorReportisthelowerrefinancingrateandtheotheroneishomebuyerspessimisticview评级跑赢大市维持onfuturehousepriceInourviewtherelativelyweaksentimentmaylastfora2longertimeandturnaroundislikelytohappenin2H2023OnthepositivesideMSMPIandHSIperformanceasthemarketsentimentisgraduallyrecoveringweexpectagreaterreboundinpropertysalesconsideringthemassiveretainedsavings恒生内地地产指数和恒生指数200ofreturn70-cityhousingASPdatainJan2023showedsomegreenshoots00especiallyinthetier-1citiesInJan2023tier-1citiesrecorded02MoMgrowthinnewhomeASPandtheASPofsecondarymarketseemedimproved200greateratMoMgrowthof04Webelievethelatestdatahasaffirmedthe400previousmediareportthatcertainhigher-tiercitieshaveseenaquickrecovery600ofmarketsentimentaftertheChineseNewYearFurthermoretheearly800证recoveryofpropertymarketintier-1citieswillreinforcethemarketconfidence告inpropertyrecoverythisyearinourview1000券1200研报SalesofcompletedpropertiesmaycontinuetobenefitleadingnamesFeb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Recentlysomelocalgovernmentsindicatedtoimplementpilotprogramfor究究HSIIndexMSMPIIndexsalesofcompletedpropertiesInourviewitwillhelptoenhancetheSourceBloombergResearchReporthomebuyersconfidencewhichwillalsobenefittheleadingdeveloperswith报研highreputationandfinancialedgesWestillrecommendSOEsandquality告Nationalpropertysalesperformance券privatenamesinthesectorAmongthequalitynameswerecommendLongforEquity全国房地产销售表现00960HKGemdale600383SHPolyDevelopment600048SHandRMBbn证20000160Vanke-H02202HK1800014016000120Risks1Reopeningofup-frontfinancingincreasingtheindustrysleverage1400010080120002deterioratinghomebuyingdemand6010000408000目前市场分歧存在于提升的居民储蓄和房贷的提前偿还这两个方面其实都反映了中国居2060000民消费意愿的下降或者较弱的居民借贷需求而在一波提前还贷浪潮的背后我们认为有4000-20T两个更为重要的因素一是当前较低的再贷款利率二是购房者对于未来房价较为悲观的情2000-400-60绪在我们看来较弱的市场气氛可能会持续更长时间真正的复苏转折可能在今年下半年a从更乐观的角度看随着市场气氛逐渐转好考虑到大量的居民存款我们预计住房销售反AmountSoldofCommodityHousesLHS弹复苏的幅度可能会更大bAmountSoldofResidentialHousesLHS房AmountSoldYTDYoYofCommodityHousesRHSl2023年1月份的70城房价数据显示了一些复苏苗头尤其是在一线城市今年1月份地AmountSoldYTDYoYofResidentialHousesRHS一线城市的新房销售价格指数录得02的环比增长二手房价格指数上涨幅度更明显环SourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinae产比增长为04我们认为最新的数据映证了之前的媒体报道即个别高线城市在春节后行房地产市场气氛有明显好转进一步我们认为房地产市场在一线城市的较早回暖将坚定业L市场对于今年房地产市场总体复苏的信心PropertySectore现房销售或将持续利好领先房企最近一些地方政府表示将探索实施房地产现房销售试点我们认为这将会有助于增强购房人的信心同时也会利好具备较好信誉以及资金优势的领f先房企我们仍然推荐行业中的国企和优质民企其中我们推荐龙湖集团00960HKt金地集团600383SH保利发展600048SH和万科企业02202HKM风险1重新放开前融行业杠杆上行以及2购房需求下行arginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of5werecoveringturnaroundandtimelongeraforlastpricetowillingarehouseholdsratemortgagepaymentHencehomebuyerspricemomentumcreditfordemandweaksbothprepaymentmortgageandsavingsretainedrisingviewtheourInwaveofrepaymentearlymortgagefromthebeginningof2023whichreflectedAccordingtothelatestdataCurrentlylikelyreinforcedthemarketconfidenceinpropertyrecoverythisyearnumberrisiwith2023FebofweekstwofirsttheinactivemuchwereShanghaiandBeijinginmarketshousingsecondarythereportYearNewChinesetheaftersentimentmarketofrecoveryquickaseenhaveHangzhouandShanghairespectivelydeclinenewtheMeanwhile2023Janin04Furthermorethe36whichismuchhigherthanthatof15inDec2022ThenewnewMoMinrecordedgrowththatcitiesofnotheNBStoAccording2023JanrecoveryinslightsomeStatistics70SeSourceSource2023JanFigure20001000e10002000300040005000600070008000-cityRMBbnth0moeAlthoughthe70na03qiefewaquite2023JanInPBoClass1thehousingresignsoffundamentalimprovementsinthefollowingmothstinJan-21ThelatterfactorofmarketsbearishviewonthefuturehousingpriceismoreessentmoreispricehousingfuturetheonviewbearishmarketsoffactorlatterTheNBSNpagGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaithereisaaisthereOnehouseholdsFeb-21ewohfunitofbothinthesecitiestheseineMar-21lyfoexpectApr-21disclosedtherecenttherecentdisclosed-rASPistheincreasedsavingshighnewrecordedinincreasedASPdisclaimerMay-21Jun-21Newly-increasedsavingshouseholdNewly-increasedsavings-WebelievethelatestdatahasdatalatestthebelieveWeofJul-21divergencemarketcityhousingASPdatahasseemedtostopfallinginJan2023toenvironmentdataeffortsAug-21secondarymarketintierseeaseetheBehindvisitsSep-21ChinashouseholdsretainedsavingsreacOct-21setwereinNov-21muchinntascinvolumetransactionandJanDec-21citiescitiesJan-22refinancingofwaveofwave70Feb-22greater2023below40belowisMar-22lower-nonetlowertoannounced-cityhousingASPcitydatahousingFeb2023h16observedtheonWethatlikelytohappenin2H2023inhappentolikelyhomeASPintierinASPhomeApr-22leverageupforbuyingpropertiesiftheyexpecthigherreturnfromtheriseofhousingofrisethefromreturnhigherexpecttheyifpropertiesbuyingforupleverageMay-22thebetweenshowedrefinancingreboundpropertyintconsideringsalesmortgageprepaymentwe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