通过比较和分析传媒文化板块的各个子行业在过去一年的运营表现和股价表现，我们判断板块的估值跌幅远超2022年全行业运营表现的下滑程度，我们将其主要原因归咎为市场早前对于整个板块未来的政策和盈利成长性的悲观情绪过度反应。目前与传媒行业相关的不确定性逐渐明朗，若干个子行业已开始出现估值修复，其中表现最为突出的是电影娱乐行业。通过分析过去影响股价的不确定性因素以及目前对于这些不确定性的展望，我们认为早前的悲观预期已基本被市场消化，而新的行业成长性仍未反映在股价上，因此未来传媒和文化板块的反弹空间巨大。其中，我们尤其看好互动家庭娱乐和互动媒体及服务子行业的潜在估值反弹空间。
　　基于传媒文化子行业具体基本面的分析，我们预计以下几个重要的因素有望提振整个板块的估值：1.随着版号常态化以及游戏出海，游戏板块收入增长的确定性上升；2.视频平台未来的盈利能力开始出现显著的改善，短视频电商为其提供可靠变现能力；3.随着疫情防控政策优化，影线票房收入复苏的预期升温，待上映的优质影片也将进一步助力；4.电商营销开辟长尾增量市场，疫情防控政策优化将提升电商营销相关产业的收入预期。
　　我们给予行业“跑赢大市”评级。推荐腾讯(00700 HK)、网易(09999 HK)、哔哩哔哩-SW(09626HK)、快手-W(01024 HK)，以及乐享(06988 HK)。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportMediaCultureSectorTeddyLin林荣叶行业报告传播文化行业8675523976692rongyelingtjascomhk26December2022GrowthTableMainInfoCertaintyofSub-industriesImprovesHistoricallyLowValuationHasGreatRoomforReboundOutperform行子赛道的成长确定性上升历史低位的估值水平具有巨大弹性跑赢大市业Bycomparingandanalyzingtheoperatingperformanceandshareperformance报ofeachsub-industryofthemediaandculturesectoroverthepastyearweRatingTableInvestInfoOutperformconcludethatthedeclineinthevaluationofthemediaandculturesectorwasfarMaintained告SectorReportSectorgreaterthanthedeteriorationintheoperatingperformanceofthewholesectorin2022thiswaslikelyduetothemarketsearlieroverreactionamidpessimism评级跑赢大市维持aboutfuturepoliciesandearningsgrowthofthesectorinourviewNowwith2lessuncertaintiesinthemediaandculturesectorseveralsub-industriesstarttoseevaluationrepairsespeciallythemoviesentertainmentsub-industryByMediasectorperformancevsHanganalyzingthefactorsofuncertaintiesaffectingthesub-industriesandthecurrentSengIndexoutlookontheseuncertaintieswearguethatwhilepreviouspessimismstill传媒行业表现vs恒生指数weighonvaluationsectorsnewgrowthprospecthasyettobefullypricedin02ofreturnWeareparticularlybullishonthepotentialforvaluationrecoveryinthe01interactivehomeentertainmentandinteractivemediaservices00sub-industries01Basedontheanalysisofspecificfundamentalsofsub-industriesinmedia证02andculturesectorweexpectthefollowingkeyfundamentalstoboostthe告03券sectorsvaluation1withthenormalizationofreleaseofgamecopyrightand04研报theexpansionoverseasthecertaintyofrevenuegrowthincreasesinthe05game-relatedsub-industries2profitabilityofvideoplatformsbeginstoimprove究究significantlybackedbythereliablemonetizationfromshortvideoe-commerce06Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22ResearchReport3expectationsofcinemaboxofficerecoveryroseonlooseningCovid-19HISMediaculturesector报研restrictionswhiletheupcomingbatchofhigh-qualitymoviescouldalsoprovideSourceiFinD告NoteTheabovefiguresarecalculatedbasedonmarketcap-weightedaverage券additionalboost4E-commercemarketingwillopenupnicheincrementalshareperformanceiniFinDasat23Dec2022Equitymarketswhileoptimizedpandemicpreventionandcontrolpoliciesraiserevenue证expectationsofe-commercemarketingrelatedindustriesWeratethesectorasOutperformWerecommendTencent00700HKSub-industryperformanceofmediavsHangSengTECHIndexNetEase09999HKBilibili-SW09626HKKuaishou-W01024HKandJoySpreader06988HK传媒板块子行业表现vs恒生科技指数05ofreturn通过比较和分析传媒文化板块的各个子行业在过去一年的运营表现和股价表现我们判断板04块的估值跌幅远超2022年全行业运营表现的下滑程度我们将其主要原因归咎为市场早前对T03于整个板块未来的政策和盈利成长性的悲观情绪过度反应目前与传媒行业相关的不确定性02a逐渐明朗若干个子行业已开始出现估值修复其中表现最为突出的是电影娱乐行业通过0100b分析过去影响股价的不确定性因素以及目前对于这些不确定性的展望我们认为早前的悲观传预期已基本被市场消化而新的行业成长性仍未反映在股价上因此未来传媒和文化板块的0102播l反弹空间巨大其中我们尤其看好互动家庭娱乐和互动媒体及服务子行业的潜在估值反弹03空间文e04化基于传媒文化子行业具体基本面的分析我们预计以下几个重要的因素有望提振整个板块的0506行估值1随着版号常态化以及游戏出海游戏板块收入增长的确定性上升2视频平台未Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22L来的盈利能力开始出现显著的改善短视频电商为其提供可靠变现能力3随着疫情防控政HSTECHMedia业EntertainmentInteractiveMediaServices策优化影线票房收入复苏的预期升温待上映的优质影片也将进一步助力4电商营销开SourceiFinDeNoteTheabovefiguresarecalculatedbasedonmarketcap-weightedaverageMediaCultureSector辟长尾增量市场疫情防控政策优化将提升电商营销相关产业的收入预期shareperformanceiniFinDasat23Dec2022f我们给予行业跑赢大市评级推荐腾讯00700HK网易09999HK哔哩哔哩-SW09626tHK快手-W01024HK以及乐享06988HKMarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of15Se4321e2524232221131211thRiskWarningStrategyInvestmentInduReviewMarket2022elastpagstryOutlookWeExpectValuationWeExpectstryOutlookMediaofHighShortATurningPointofProfitabilityforShortVideoPlatformsGrowthLessSensitivetoMGamesEarlierConcernsaboutUncertaintyDespiteABoostfromMoviesStocksinNovemberOverallSharCurrentValuationefo-rqualityMoviesReadytodisclaimerV-ideoErelatedSub-coWhatweretheMajorMajortheWhatweremmerceGainsIncrementalStill-industryHastheGreatestPotentialforValuationReboundatHistoricalLowarketExpenditureforVideoPlatformsbeReleasedDrivingUptheMoviesSubTABLEOFCONTENTSPweretheBiggestFactorAffectingValuationsOverhangsstoGrowthReboundasGrowthCertainasGrowthReboundfromNicheTablePageHeaderePricesareStillDownSharplyMarket-industrytyImprovestyeiutrSectorCultureMediaPagePage121414111196643632ofof152nigraMelbaT1nigraMelbaTSectorReportMediaCultureSector传播文化行业26December2022Se255tbenchmarkstheatbacknowaresectorentertainmentandmediaThewildlyfluctuatedhadsectorentertainmentNovemberbackvaluationseetofirstNovembertheAftertoAugustfromlowestthebecomingfalltocontinuedsector221valuationlowsvTheThe2022Dec23ataveragedownmeThe1Figure11NoteNoteSourcethGICSclassifiedGICSclassified20222022xxecycleCaluationofaluationAtthebeginnieTheaThelaHangSeng-urrent1siFinDiFinDianddiareturnt325pagTheperformanceofentertainmentThemediathethereachesinsectorlowerwasamongsectorsboveboveregulatoryuncertaintiesregulatoryMwiha279waswhichsignifithemarketcapmarkettheGuotaiJunanInternationalGuotaiJunanearketarketxfooftheGlobalIndustryGlobalIndustrytheofmarketcapmarketVrvnythebyDrivenrunderperformingtheHangSengIndexSengHangtheunderperformingamongamongaluationdisclaimercantcantutrscoiHnKongHonginsectorculturethesectorthengngof2componmediamediaandentertainmentRP-weight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