11月以来，主要光伏产品价格持续下跌，加强了市场对于光伏降本拐点已现的预期。据PVinfolink最新数据，自2022年11月以来（截至2022年12月14日），硅料、硅片和电池片等主要光伏产品的价格普遍录得超过8%的跌幅。虽然同期光伏组件价格展现出了韧性，仅下降3%左右，但我们认为随着上游产能持续释放，光伏组件价格仍有一定下降空间——初步数据显示，截至2022年12月21日当周，光伏组件价格环比进一步下降2.5%-3.6%。据我们A股公用事业团队测算，光伏组件价格每下降人民币0.1元/瓦，光伏项目资本金收益率将增加0.5个百分点（假设利用小时数为1,200）。
　　在市场消化当前光伏降本趋势之际，我们认为有两个主要受益标的仍未被广泛关注——它们是龙源电力（00916 HK）和大唐新能源（01798 HK），在传统认知上，这两家公司是领先的风电公司。事实上，尽管这两家公司目前光伏业务体量十分有限，但它们都计划在“十四五”期间大幅增加光伏业务。例如，2021年1月至2022年6月间，龙源电力在竞争配置中获得共计24.07吉瓦开发指标，其中近6成属于光伏项目（包括分布式光伏项目）；在2022年上半年中，大唐新能源共获得了1.81吉瓦光伏开发指标，高于风电的0.82吉瓦。因此，两家公司都是光伏降本的即时受益者，尤其是考虑到光伏项目较短的建设周期。但目前来看，我们认为两家领先风电公司的估值中，并未包含与光伏持续降本预期相关的溢价。往后看，两家公司不断壮大的光伏业务有望催化估值，因为光伏降本带来的收益将更为直观

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportEnergyOperationsSectorPeterShao邵俊樨行业报告能源运营行业85225095464petershaogtjascomhk22December2022WhatTableMainInfoInvestorsLikelyOverlookedAmidExpectationsofOngoing行SolarPVCostReduction在预期光伏持续降本之际投资者可能忽视了什么业报TheconsistentpricedeclinesofmajorsolarproductssinceNovemberhaveledtogrowingexpectationsofaninflectionpointinsolarPVcostRatingTableInvestInfoOutperform告MaintainedSectorReportreductionLatestdatafromPVinfolinkshowthatpricesofmajorsolarproductssuchaspolysiliconwaferandcellhavegenerallydeclinedbyover评级跑赢大市维持8sinceNov2022asattheendof14Dec2022AlthoughPVmodulepricesshowedresilienceonlydownbyaround3duringthesameperiod2webelievethereremainsroomforfurtherpricedeclineasproductionMono-gradePolysiliconSpotPricescapacitiesintheupstreamcontinuetorampupinfactpreliminarydata多晶硅致密料现货价格showthatpricesofPVmodulesfurtherfell25-36wowfortheweekRMBkgendedon21Dec2022OurA-shareutilityteamestimatesthatforevery350RMB01WdeclineinPVmodulecosttheIRRofasolarprojectwouldincreaseby05pptassumingutilisationhoursof1200300250Asthemarketdigeststhecurrentdownwardtrendinsolarcomponent证costtwomajorbeneficiariescouldremainundertheradartheyare200告LongyuanPower00916HKhereafterLYPandDatangRenewable01798150券HKhereafterDTRwhicharetraditionallyrecognisedasleadingwind研报100powerfirmsInfactwhilethetwocompaniescurrentlyhavelimitedexposure究2022-012022-012022-022022-022022-032022-042022-042022-052022-062022-072022-072022-082022-082022-092022-102022-102022-112022-122022-032022-052022-062022-072022-092022-11究insolarpowerbotharewellontracktorampuptheirsolarbusinessesduring2022-01SourcePVinfolinkResearchReportthe14thFiveYearPlanperiodForexamplefromJan2021toJun2022报研LYPthroughcompetitivebiddingobtaineddevelopmentquotatotaling2407告券GWamongwhichnearly60belongtosolarprojectsincludingdistributedPVModuleSpotPricesEquitysolarprojectsduring1H22DTRobtaineddevelopmentquotaof181GWin光伏组件现货价格证solarhigherthanthatof082GWinwindAssuchbothcompaniesareimmediatebeneficiariesoflowersolarPVcostsespeciallygiventheshortRMBW166mm182mm210mmconstructioncycleofsolarprojectsHoweverwebelievethetwoleadingwind200powerplaysvaluationscurrentlydonotcontainapremiumassociatedwith195theexpectationofongoingsolarPVcostreductionLookingaheadtheir190continuedramp-upofsolarbusinessescouldbeavaluationcatalystastheTbenefitbroughtbysolarPVcostreductionbecomesmoreapparent185a18011月以来主要光伏产品价格持续下跌加强了市场对于光伏降本拐点已现的预期据b最新数据自年月以来截至年月日硅料硅片和175能PVinfolink20221120221214源l电池片等主要光伏产品的价格普遍录得超过8的跌幅虽然同期光伏组件价格展现出了2022-012022-022022-032022-032022-042022-052022-052022-062022-072022-072022-082022-092022-102022-102022-112022-12韧性仅下降3左右但我们认为随着上游产能持续释放光伏组件价格仍有一定下降2022-01运e空间初步数据显示截至2022年12月21日当周光伏组件价格环比进一步下降营SourcePVinfolink25-36据我们A股公用事业团队测算光伏组件价格每下降人民币01元瓦光伏行项目资本金收益率将增加05个百分点假设利用小时数为1200业Le在市场消化当前光伏降本趋势之际我们认为有两个主要受益标的仍未被广泛关注它EnergySectorOperations们是龙源电力00916HK和大唐新能源01798HK在传统认知上这两家公司是f领先的风电公司事实上尽管这两家公司目前光伏业务体量十分有限但它们都计划在t十四五期间大幅增加光伏业务例如2021年1月至2022年6月间龙源电力在竞M争配置中获得共计2407吉瓦开发指标其中近6成属于光伏项目包括分布式光伏项目在2022年上半年中大唐新能源共获得了181吉瓦光伏开发指标高于风电的082吉a瓦因此两家公司都是光伏降本的即时受益者尤其是考虑到光伏项目较短的建设周期r但目前来看我们认为两家领先风电公司的估值中并未包含与光伏持续降本预期相关的溢价往后看两家公司不断壮大的光伏业务有望催化估值因为光伏降本带来的收益将g更为直观inSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of2SeTel852250927FLowBlockGrandGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesanytoregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdictionpdistributionsuchwherejurisdictionanyorcitizenaiswhoentityorpersonanybyuseortodistributionforintendedordirectedatnotisResearchReportThiswherandrisksrelateditsandconsultthobjectivesinvestmentthecomprehendandunderstandshouldInvestorscontainmayuncertaintyandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforwardefforthasbestThoughensurebeentoaccuracythemadeofthecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsbymadeassetthemanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanofgroupJunanGuotaiofexecutivesprofessionalotheranddealerspersonswinororallyexpressedstrategiesinvestmentoropinionstocontrarybeordiffermayreportthisinexpressedopinionsAnyservicesproprietarilyinvestmentbankinginvestmentincludingaJunanGuotaiJunanGuotaiLimitedKongResearchReportdThisDISCLAIMER654321DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkTableSectorRatingDefinitionSectorRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionTableSectorSubReportTabledisclosure2022ReduceNeutralAccumulateBuyUnderperformNeutralOutperformSelletheReportThereisnoofficerofficeroftheanasservingindividualanemployednothavecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiReportamakingnotarecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiwithinprecedingthe12monthsGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuersmentionedinthisReseaormorethan1oftothemarketcapitalizationofequaltheissuermenholdnotdocompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiHK06196HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU02558BANKHKJINSHANGGRANDCHINAforExceptTheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdohavenotanyfinancialinterestsrelationintotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReTheAnalystsGuotailasRatingDefinitioneirownfinancialadvisersprior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