传媒板块的表现好于大盘，其中院线相关以及互娱相关的子行业表现尤为突出。在过去的两周里，GICS分类的媒体与娱乐板块的总市值加权平均股价表现上涨了6.1%，其表现在24个二级行业中位居第六名，优于恒生指数。具体到子赛道，大概率因为影线票房复苏预期所带来的估值修复，影视娱乐的表现最为突出，涨幅为10.6%；表现第二好的子赛道是互动媒体与服务行业，涨幅为7.5%，我们认为主要是得益于腾讯的出海游戏成绩优异以及视频平台的降本增效效果显著。
　　我们认为目前传媒板块的多个子行业都具有良好的成长基本面，而当前估值水平仍处低位。参考北美票房复苏的情况以及考虑到近期准备上映的电影储备，我们预期中国影线的票房有望复苏，从而带动院线相关的赛道。尽管视频平台推行降本增效的发展策略，但仍不失量质兼备的用户增长。随着腾讯重夺龙头第一的地位，我们对游戏板块的成长性有了新的期待，建议重新关注具有自研自发能力的游戏龙头公司。
　　我们给予行业“跑赢大市”评级。推荐哔哩哔哩-SW(09626 HK)、快手-W(01024 HK)、腾讯(00700 HK)以及网易(09999 HK)。
　　风险提示：中国院线的票房仍可能受到新冠疫情的严重影响；未来来自出海游戏的收入可能会低于预期；视频平台未来在盈利能力上的提升可能不及预期。

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus21December2022TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨Nil无焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变SectorReportInteractiveMediaandMediaDomesticCinemasShowGood--Outperform--NCultureSectorFundamentalsforGrowthOutperform行业报告互动媒体以及国内院线呈良传播文化行业--跑赢大市--否好的成长基本面跑赢大市证SectorReportDemandIsMarginallyMachinery告ImprovingLong-TermInvestment--Outperform--N券SectorOpportunitiesinAdvanced研报ManufacturingOutperform行业报告需求边际向好先进制造具备机械行业跑赢大市否究----究长期投资机会跑赢大市报研告NewlyPublishedKeyEconomicDataforChinaUSandEurope券EquityResearchReport中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据证AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900012000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22SourceBloombergSourceBloombergSeethelastpagefordisclaimer1of6MorningResearchFocusPleasesubscribeGTJAIResearchandanalystsWechatsubscriptionaccount国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究PleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJIndustryandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsSectorReportMediaCultureSectorInteractiveMediaandDomesticCinemasShowGoodFundamentalsforGrowthOutperformRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystTeddyLinReportDate2022-12-20SummaryThemediaandculturesectoroutperformedespeciallythesubsectorsrelatedtothefilmindustryandtheinteractivemediaandservicescategoryOverthepasttwoweeksthemarketcap-weightedaverageshareperformanceofGICSsclassifiedmediaandentertainmentsectorrose61thesixthbestperformanceamong24secondaryGICSsectorsoutperformingtheHangSengIndexBysubsectorperformanceoffilmandtelevisionentertainmentwasthemostprominentup106potentiallyduetovaluationrepaircausedbyexpectationsthatthecinemaboxofficewillrecoverThesecondbestperformingsubsectorwasinteractivemediaandservicesup75drivenbystrongperformanceofTencentsoverseasgamesandthesignificantcostreductionandefficiencyimprovementofvideoplatformsinourviewWebelievethatseveralsubsectorsinthemediaandculturesectorhavestrongfundamentalsforgrowthwhilecurrentvaluationsarestilllowInviewoftherecoveryoftheNorthAmericanboxofficeandconsideringtherecentbatchofmoviesreadytobereleasedweexpectChinasboxofficetorecoverthusdrivingupthevaluationofthefilmindustrysubsegmentAlthoughvideoplatformshaveputinplacecostreductionstrategiesbothuserquantityandqualitycontinuetoimproveWithTencentregainingthetoppositionwehavenewexpectationsongrowthofthegamesectorandwesuggestrefocusingonleadingcompanieswithcapabilitiesofself-developingandlaunchinggametitlesWeratethesectorasOutperformWerecommendBilibili-SW09626HKKuaishou-W01024HKTencent00700HKandNetEase09999HKRiskWarningChinasboxofficemaystillbeseverelyaffectedbytheCovid-19pandemicfuturegamerevenuefromoverseasmaybelessthanexpectedtheprofitabilityofvideoplatformsmaynotimproveasexpectedSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of6MorningResearchFocusTableFocusSectorReportMachinerySectorDemandIsMarginallyImprovingLong-TermInvestmentOpportunitiesinAdvancedManufacturingOutperformRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystAlexBaiReportDate2022-12-20SummaryDownstreamdemandmayimprovein2023andtheindustrialautomationequipmentindustryisexpectedtorecoverWiththeadjustmentinChinasanti-epidemicpoliciesandsupportfortherealestatemarketweexpectthemanufacturingindustrytorecoverTheinjectionmoldingmachineindustrywillbenefitfromtherecoveryofthemacroeconomyThedie-castingmachineindustrywillcontinuetobenefitfromthelong-termgrowthofthenewenergyvehiclemarketChinasinfrastructureinvestmentisincreasingandtheconstructionmachineryindustryhasmarginallyimprovedIssuesintherealestateindustryhavegreatlyreducednewdemandforconstructionmachineryTheChinesegovernmenthasincreasedinvestmentininfrastructurewhichsupportsdemandfortheindustryChinasexcavatorsalesimprovedmarginallyandexportshaveremainedresilientDemandintheelectrictoolindustryisunderpressurebutthemarketshareofleadingenterprisesmaycontinuetoincreaseThemainconsumermarketsofthepowertoolindustryareinEuropeandtheUnitedStatesTheweakglobaleconomicoutlookhasputpressureondemandinoverseasmarketsHoweverleadingcompaniesareexpectedtocontinuetoexpandtheirmarketsharerelyingontheirexcellentbrandstrengthandproductsystemTheadjustmentinChinasmacropoliciesmayoffsetthenegativeimpactfromthedeclineinglobaldemandandChinasmanufacturingindustryisexpectedtoimproveUndertheinfluenceoffactorssuchasinflationarypressureandinterestratehikesbytheUSFederalReservemanufacturingPMIsinmajorregionsoftheworldhavedeclinedindicatingthattheoutlookfortheglobaleconomyispessimisticHoweverChinasactiveadjustmentsinmacropoliciesmaydrivetherecoveryofdomesticdemandin2023andtheprosperityofChinasmanufacturingindustryisexpectedtoimproveRiskfactorsEconomicrecoverymaybeweakerthanexpectedNewlyPublishedKeyEconomicDataforChinaUSandEuropeTableNewlyPublished中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据AnalystEvanLi分析员李少金CountryIndicatorDataPeriodCurrentValuePriorValueMarketConsensus国家指标名称数据期间当期值前值市场一致预期USHousingStartsNov1427k1434k1400k美国新屋开工数11月China1-YearLoanPrimeRateDec365365365中国1年期市场贷款报价利率12月China5-YearLoanPrimeRateDec430430430中国5年期市场贷款报价利率12月EurozoneConsumerConfidenceDec-222-239-220欧元区消费者信心指数12月SourcePBOCBloomberg数据来源中国人民银行彭博Seethelastpagefordisclaimer3of6MorningResearchFocusChineseTranslation中文翻译TableFocuschi行业和公司焦点Nil无TableLatestchi最新报告行业报告传播文化行业互动媒体以及国内院线呈良好的成长基本面跑赢大市评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员林荣叶报告日期2022-12-20报告摘要传媒板块的表现好于大盘其中院线相关以及互娱相关的子行业表现尤为突出在过去的两周里GICS分类的媒体与娱乐板块的总市值加权平均股价表现上涨了61其表现在24个二级行业中位居第六名优于恒生指数具体到子赛道大概率因为影线票房复苏预期所带来的估值修复影视娱乐的表现最为突出涨幅为106表现第二好的子赛道是互动媒体与服务行业涨幅为75我们认为主要是得益于腾讯的出海游戏成绩优异以及视频平台的降本增效效果显著我们认为目前传媒板块的多个子行业都具有良好的成长基本面而当前估值水平仍处低位参考北美票房复苏的情况以及考虑到近期准备上映的电影储备我们预期中国影线的票房有望复苏从而带动院线相关的赛道尽管视频平台推行降本增效的发展策略但仍不失量质兼备的用户增长随着腾讯重夺龙头第一的地位我们对游戏板块的成长性有了新的期待建议重新关注具有自研自发能力的游戏龙头公司我们给予行业跑赢大市评级推荐哔哩哔哩-SW09626HK快手-W01024HK腾讯00700HK以及网易09999HK风险提示中国院线的票房仍可能受到新冠疫情的严重影响未来来自出海游戏的收入可能会低于预期视频平台未来在盈利能力上的提升可能不及预期行业报告机械行业需求边际向好先进制造具备长期投资机会跑赢大市评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员白舸报告日期2022-12-20报告摘要2023年下游需求或将改善工业自动化行业有望复苏随着中国疫情防控政策优化以及对房地产市场的支持我们预计制造业将复苏注塑机行业将受益于宏观经济的回暖压铸机行业则将继续受益于新能源汽车市场的长期增长中国基建投资逐步加码工程机械行业边际改善地产行业的疲弱令工程机械的新增需求大幅减少中国政府加大基建投资力度支撑了行业需求中国挖机销量边际改善海外销售维持韧性电动工具行业需求面临压力但头部企业市场占有率或将持续提升电动工具行业主要消费市场在欧美疲弱的全球经济前景令海外市场需求面临压力然而头部企业依靠优秀的品牌实力和产品体系有望继续扩大市场份额中国宏观政策的调整或将抵消全球需求下滑的不利影响中国制造业有望改善在通胀压力和美联储加息等因素的影响下全球主要地区的制造业PMI都出现了下滑显示全球经济前景较为悲观不过中国在宏观政策方面的积极调整或将在2023年带动国内需求的复苏中国制造业景气度有望改善风险因素经济复苏不及预期Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of6MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Computer计算机danieltaogtjascomhk8675523976885EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer5of6MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKASYMCHEM-HSHARES06821HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKGREENTOWNCHINA03900HKSENSETIME-W00020HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2022GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer6of6