传媒板块的表现好于大盘,其中院线相关以及互娱相关的子行业表现尤为突出。在过去的两周里,GICS分类的媒体与娱乐板块的总市值加权平均股价表现上涨了6.1%,其表现在24个二级行业中位居第六名,优于恒生指数。具体到子赛道,大概率因为影线票房复苏预期所带来的估值修复,影视娱乐的表现最为突出,涨幅为10.6%;表现第二好的子赛道是互动媒体与服务行业,涨幅为7.5%,我们认为主要是得益于腾讯的出海游戏成绩优异以及视频平台的降本增效效果显著。
我们认为目前传媒板块的多个子行业都具有良好的成长基本面,而当前估值水平仍处低位。参考北美票房复苏的情况以及考虑到近期准备上映的电影储备,我们预期中国影线的票房有望复苏,从而带动院线相关的赛道。尽管视频平台推行降本增效的发展策略,但仍不失量质兼备的用户增长。随着腾讯重夺龙头第一的地位,我们对游戏板块的成长性有了新的期待,建议重新关注具有自研自发能力的游戏龙头公司。 我们给予行业“跑赢大市”评级。推荐哔哩哔哩-SW(09626 HK)、快手-W(01024 HK)、腾讯(00700 HK)以及网易(09999 HK)。 风险提示:中国院线的票房仍可能受到新冠疫情的严重影响;未来来自出海游戏的收入可能会低于预期;视频平台未来在盈利能力上的提升可能不及预期。 研究报告全文:股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportMediaCultureSectorTeddyLin林荣叶行业报告传播文化行业8675523976692rongyelingtjascomhk20December2022ITableMainInfonteractiveMediaandDomesticCinemasShowGoodFundamentalsforGrowthOutperform行互动媒体以及国内院线呈良好的成长基本面跑赢大市业Themediaandculturesectoroutperformedespeciallythesubsectors报relatedtothefilmindustryandtheinteractivemediaandservicesRatingTableInvestInfoOutperformcategoryOverthepasttwoweeksthemarketcap-weightedaverageshareMaintained告SectorReportperformanceofGICSsclassifiedmediaandentertainmentsectorrose61thesixthbestperformanceamong24secondaryGICSsectorsoutperformingthe评级跑赢大市维持HangSengIndexBysubsectorperformanceoffilmandtelevision2entertainmentwasthemostprominentup106potentiallyduetovaluationrepaircausedbyexpectationsthatthecinemaboxofficewillrecoverTheMediasectorperformancevsHangsecondbestperformingsubsectorwasinteractivemediaandservicesup75SengIndexdrivenbystrongperformanceofTencentsoverseasgamesandthesignificant传媒行业表现vs恒生指数costreductionandefficiencyimprovementofvideoplatformsinourview02ofreturnWebelievethatseveralsubsectorsinthemediaandculturesectorhave01strongfundamentalsforgrowthwhilecurrentvaluationsarestilllowIn00viewoftherecoveryoftheNorthAmericanboxofficeandconsideringtherecentbatchofmoviesreadytobereleasedweexpectChinasboxofficetorecover01证thusdrivingupthevaluationofthefilmindustrysubsegmentAlthoughvideo02告券platformshaveputinplacecostreductionstrategiesbothuserquantityand03研报qualitycontinuetoimproveWithTencentregainingthetoppositionwehave04newexpectationsongrowthofthegamesectorandwesuggestrefocusingon究究leadingcompanieswithcapabilitiesofself-developingandlaunchinggametitles05Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22ResearchReportHSIMediaSector报研WeratethesectorasOutperformWerecommendBilibili-SW09626HKKuaishou-W01024HKTencent00700HKandNetEase09999HKSourceWind告券EquityRiskWarningChinasboxofficemaystillbeseverelyaffectedbytheCovid-19Sub-industryperformanceofmedia证pandemicfuturegamerevenuefromoverseasmaybelessthanexpectedthevsHangSengTECHIndexprofitabilityofvideoplatformsmaynotimproveasexpected传媒板块子行业表现vs恒生科技指数传媒板块的表现好于大盘其中院线相关以及互娱相关的子行业表现尤为突出在过去的两01ofreturn周里分类的媒体与娱乐板块的总市值加权平均股价表现上涨了其表现在个GICS612400二级行业中位居第六名优于恒生指数具体到子赛道大概率因为影线票房复苏预期所带01来的估值修复影视娱乐的表现最为突出涨幅为106表现第二好的子赛道是互动媒体02T与服务行业涨幅为75我们认为主要是得益于腾讯的出海游戏成绩优异以及视频平台的降本增效效果显著03a我们认为目前传媒板块的多个子行业都具有良好的成长基本面而当前估值水平仍处低位04b05传参考北美票房复苏的情况以及考虑到近期准备上映的电影储备我们预期中国影线的票房有播l望复苏从而带动院线相关的赛道尽管视频平台推行降本增效的发展策略但仍不失量质06兼备的用户增长随着腾讯重夺龙头第一的地位我们对游戏板块的成长性有了新的期待07文eJan-22Feb-22Mar-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22建议重新关注具有自研自发能力的游戏龙头公司HSTECHEntertainment化MediaInteractiveMediaandServices我们给予行业跑赢大市评级推荐哔哩哔哩-SW09626HK快手-W01024HK腾讯SourceWind行00700HK以及网易09999HK业Le风险提示中国院线的票房仍可能受到新冠疫情的严重影响未来来自出海游戏的收入可能MediaCultureSector会低于预期视频平台未来在盈利能力上的提升可能不及预期ftMarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of6SeHKbelieveAdvancingofZQSinNombreandTheWanderingEarthIncinemasChinesetoonChinehitofficiallyhasWaterdisturbancetheasresiliencestrongerayearbyyearimprovingCduring2022JulyCofoptimizationrecovertoChinaincinemasofdemandsupplytheexpectAmericaNorthweandtoreferenceWith2019demandinshowingforstrongfilmsHowever2022infilm2019singlein910awithrevenueofcomparedboxoffice4supplyfilmoftermsIntrendrecoverysignificantashowing2019to2020instroandsupplyofreleasesignificantrecovery2020sincetrendgradualthewithwholetheOnExpectingStrongRecoveryofChineseCinemasHKHK00700andNetEase09999HKplatformsvideoofimprovementupcausedbytheexpectedrecoveryofthecinemaboxofficeSengIndexHangoutperformingthesectors24secondarytheamongsixthrankedStandardClassificationweekstwopasttheOverThe6NSourceAmericanFigureovid100120140e-o30020406080demandscreeningsandpredemandscreeningsteThefiguresfor2022isuptoDecember18202218toupDecemberis2022forfiguresteTheiQiyiIQUS86subsectorBythMediae-19Chinasboxofficein2022onlyrecoveredto4torecoveredonly2022inofficeboxChinas19lhnsotogefracoTnetsvresaeadtheandgamesoverseasTencentsofperformancestrongtothanksasthatMojoOfficeBox-1tpag2018US119TleadingcompaniesrelatleadingcompaniesbheheoxoxandCulturee6Percentageofboxofficein2019RHS2019inofficeboxofPercentagebnUSDofficeboxAmericanNorthTotalforo9rdisclaimerfficeemarkableemarkableovidwhichtheNorthAmericanboxofficerecoveredto82ofthesameperiodin2019DuetoDue2019inperiodsametheof82torecoveredofficeboxAmericanNorththewhichbnin2022as2022asinbnGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotai2019114f-andilm19pandemic19additiontotoadditionsdhpcoipreflsseoeigrdalexethCieefilmChinesetheexpectwegraduallyrecoveringisfilmsimportedofpacethend5GICSSectorOutperformed-2020121reieaihcmltvbxfieofofficeboxcumulativeawithcinemasse186t-9ecoveryelevisionelevisionordersTeopnewrcmedrBilibiliarerecommendwecompaniesTheDecatatclassifiededtofilmtoed182022AcontrolmeasurescontrolwhiletheindustrybeneficiariesareMaoyanEntertainmentfromaahaOWaterOfWayThevatar3942021DecemberThefilmhasbeentrendingonsocialmediaplatformswhichisexpectedtoinjectaboostboostinjectatoexpectedplatformsiswhichmediasocialtrendingbeenonhasThefilm45AccordingAccordingtoBoxOfficeMojotheboxofficeinNorthAmericaincreasedfrom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