2022年1至11月全国房地产销售金额同比下跌26.6%，与预期基本一致。今年1至11月，全国商品房累计销售面积和金额分别同比下跌23.3%和26.6%。11月单月的销售数据环比略微复苏，增长3.8%，而同比仍然大幅下跌32.2%。考虑到克而瑞11月底披露的销售数据作为预先指标，已经显示了销售上的疲弱，我们认为这基本与市场的预期没有出入。根据克而瑞数据，主要50家开发商2022年11月单月的总合约销售金额同比下跌幅度为34.8%。即使和10月单月数据相比，也录得了环比7.9%的跌幅。我们将11月销售乏力的主要原因归结于以下两点。首先是在11月份，中国的主要城市仍然执行严格的疫情防控措施。最近疫情防控的情况已经发生转变。随着政府在12月初宣布全国范围内优化疫情防控政策，我们相信疫情下受压制的购房需求会逐步释放。第二个原因是市场仍然在期待更多的来自需求端政策的放松，这也使得购房者更多的仍然保持观望的态度。我们认为短期不会看到全国的房地产销售数字迅速反弹，而是要等待更长的时间，需要看到：1）工作和生活秩序完全从中国疫情防控措施调整中恢复；以及2）更多的针对购房人的需求端放松政策出台。因此，我们认为房地产销售录得正向同比增长的最早时间可能是2023年的第二季度。
　　房地产竣工将在2023年第一季度继续保持势头。2022年1至11月，全国房地产累计竣工面积同比下跌19.0%。虽然下跌幅度相比2022年1至10月的18.7%有所扩大，但我们认为原因主要是去年的高基数。从环比角度看，11月单月的竣工面积大幅增长了60.8%。在地产“三只箭”政策助力开发商再融资之后，我们认为房地产竣工数字将在明年第一季度都保持高景气的势头，尤其是考虑到政府关于“保交付”的决心。另一方面，我们也注意到，房地产开发投资数字在11月份进一步减弱。2022年1至11月，房地产累计开发投资额同比下跌幅度相较1至10月份8.8%的同比下跌进一步扩大至9.8%。我们相信主要原因是较为平淡的土地市场和较弱的新开工。考虑到对于支持开发商的融资主要是用于保交付而不是土地投资，我们认为在明年第一季度，房地产开发投资可能都会保持较低的景气度。
　　我们看到了更多来自需求端的放松政策。在一系列解决房地产开发商流动性的政策出台之后，我们观察到更多的重点城市也进一步宣布了针对购房者的放松政策。2022年12月9日，佛山宣布在一些限购区域放松房地产限购政策，至此，佛山全市解除了住房限购政策。2012年12月13日，根据媒体报道，南京允许合资格人士在一些限购区域购买第三套房。我们相信在接下来的几个月，会有更多的来自重点一、二线城市的需求端放松政策出台。
　　行业观点：随着开发商流动性问题的逐步化解，我们认为板块的估值恢复将会持续。另外，我们也认为市场关注的重点是什么时候地产销售状况发生根本的复苏。市场预期的扭转，决定于需求端放松政策将如何进行以及深入到什么程度。我们当前对板块所持的评级是“跑赢大市”。我们推荐优质民企龙湖集团（00960 HK）和金地集团（600383 SH）。同时我们认为中交地产（000736SZ）以及建发国际（01908 HK）作为较小的央国企，将在当前融资宽松环境下看到更多优势。另外，我们也推荐万科企业（02202HK），考虑到其稳健的基本面和财务优势。
　　

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquityFlashTableBasicInfoNotePropertySectorChunliZhan詹春立快讯房地产行业85225097745jameszhangtjascomhk15December2022TableMainInfoNovNBSDataWeakRecoverySalesDataasExpectedTimeNeededtoRepairConfidence快11月全国房地产数据点评销售复苏疲软信心恢复仍需时日讯11M2022nationalpropertysalesvaluedeclinedby266YoYasweakasexpectedNationalpropertysalesFlashNoteFlashvolumevaluedeclinedYoYby233266in11M2022ThemonthlysalesdatainNovslightlyrecoveredatMoMincreaseof38butstillrecordedlargeYoYdeclineof322WebelievethereisnosurprisetothemarketgiventheweakpreliminarysalesdatadisclosedbyChinaRealEstateInformationCorporationCRICattheendofNov2022AccordingtoCRICthetotalcontractedsalesfromtheleading50developersinChinainNov2022declinedby348YoYEvencomparedwiththatinOct2022itstillrecordedMoMdeclineof79WeattributethelacklustersalesinNov2022totwomainreasonsOneisthatChinaexecutedstrictCovid-19restrictionsinmostcitiesacrossChinainNov2022ThissituationhasrecentlychangedAsthegovernmentannouncednationwidelooseningoftheserestrictionsatthebeginningofDec2022webelievethatpent-updemandfromhomebuyerswillbegraduallyreleasedThesecondreasonisthatthemarketstillexpectsmorepolicylooseningfromthedemandsideandhencemosthomebuyersstillholdawait-and-seeattitudeWebelievethatnationalsalesmaynotreboundfromthebottomintheneartermastimeisneededtosee1recoveryinworkandlifeafter证theremovalofCovidrestrictionsinChinaand2moredemand-sidelooseningpoliciesforhomebuyersHence告券weviewthesecondquarterof2023astheearliesttimetoseepossibleYoYpropertysalesgrowth研报Propertycompletionisgoingtomaintainmomentumin1Q2023In11M2022theYoYdeclineofGFA究究completionwas190Althoughthedeclinewidenedfrom187in10M2022webelievethemainreasonistheResearchReport报研highdatabaseoflastyearFromaMoMperspectiveGFAcompletioninNov2022increasedgreatlyby608告AfterthethreearrowscameouttosupportrefinancingfordevelopersweexpectGFAcompletiondatatofurther券Equityaccelerateinthefirstquarterofnextyeargiventhegovernmentsdeterminationofensuringconstruction证completionOntheothersidewehaveobservedthatrealestateinvestmentcontinuedtoweakeninNov2022Theaccumulatedrealestateinvestmentamountin11M2022declinedby98YoYwhichwidenedfromthatof88YoYdeclinein10M2022WebelievethemaindragswereinactivelandacquisitionsandweaknewstartsConsideringthattheuseofsupportivefundingfordevelopersisensuringcompletioninsteadoflandinvestmentsweexpecttherealestateinvestmentdatatoremainweakin1Q2023TWehaveseenmorepolicylooseningfromthedemandsideAfteraslewofsupportivepoliciestoeasealiquiditypressureondevelopersweobservedmorekeycitiesannouncedfurtherlooseningpoliciesforhomebbuyersOn9Dec2022Foshanannouncedtorelaxthehome-purchaserestrictionsincertaindistrictswhich房limpliedalldistrictsinFoshanhavenohome-purchaserestrictionsOn13Dec2022accordingtomediareports地Nanjingallowedqualifiedpersonstobuyathirdhomeinsomehome-purchaserestricteddistrictsWebelievethate产inthefollowingmonthswewillseemorefine-tuningofdemandsidepolicyinkeytier-1andtier-2cities行业LSectorviewWebelievethatthesectorvaluationwillcontinuetoimproveasliquidityconcernswillbegraduallyPropertySectorremovedAlsowethinkthekeyfocusforthesectoriswhenthephysicalmarketwillreallyrecoverTheturnaroundeinmarketexpectationdependsonhowandtowhatextentlooseningofdemand-sidepolicywilldeepenOurfcurrentinvestmentratingonthesectorisOutperformWerecommendLongfor00960HKandGemdalet600383SHasqualitynamesamongprivatedevelopersWebelieveCCCGRealEstate000736SZandCDMInternational01908HKarebeneficiariessincesmallerSOEsmayseemorestrengthduetofinancialeasingWealsorecommendVanke-H02202HKbasedonitssolidfundamentalsandtheirfinancialedgear2022年1至11月全国房地产销售金额同比下跌266与预期基本一致今年1至11月全国商品房累计销售面积和金额分g别同比下跌233和26611月单月的销售数据环比略微复苏增长38而同比仍然大幅下跌322考虑到克而瑞11月底披露的销售数据作为预先指标已经显示了销售上的疲弱我们认为这基本与市场的预期没有出入根据克而瑞数据主要i50家开发商2022年11月单月的总合约销售金额同比下跌幅度为348即使和10月单月数据相比也录得了环比79的跌n幅我们将11月销售乏力的主要原因归结于以下两点首先是在11月份中国的主要城市仍然执行严格的疫情防控措施最近SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of5SeethelastpagSourceNBSTableTableREInvestmentREUnsoldPropertiesLandPurchaseCompletionUnderConstructionNewStartsASPSalesVolumeSalesYoYChangesREUnsoldPropertiesmnsqmLandPurchaseCompletionmnsqmUnderNewmnStartssqmASPRMBsqmSalesVolumemnsqmSalesValueRMBbnPropertyActivitiesefoInvestmentRMBbnHKSZ持的评级是候地产销售状况发生根本的复苏市场预期的扭转决定于需求端放松政策将如何进行以及深入到什么程度行业观点月会有更多的来自重点一二线城市的需求端放松政策出台房限购政策步宣布了针对购房者的放松政策我们看到了更多来自需求端的地产开发投资可能都会保持较低的景气度淡的土地市场11尤其是考虑到政府关于保交付的决心另一方面我们也注意到房地产开发投资数字在长了相比房地产年的第二季度中恢复以及不会看到全国的房地产销售数字迅速反弹释放第二个原因是市场仍然在期待更多的来自需求端政策的放松这也使得购房者更多的仍然保持观望的态度我们认为短期疫情防控的情况已经rdisclaimer1ValueConstructionmnsqm以及建发国际月房地产累计开发投资额同比下跌幅度相较NBS2022GuotaiJunanJunanGuotai608竣工将考虑到其稳健的基本面和财务优势年p随着开发商流动性问题的逐步化解我们认为板块的估值恢复将会持续mnsqmroperty跑赢大市20122和较弱的新开工在1在地产三只箭政策助力开发商再融资之后我们认为房地产竣工数字将在明年第一季度都保持高景气的势头至更多的针对购房人的需求端放松政策出台因此我们认为房地产销售录得正向同比增长的最早时间可能是202310International年01908发生12月的d年第一季度ataata我们推荐优质民企月转变随着政府在HK18713summary考虑到对于放松作为较小的央国企将在当前融资宽松环境下看到更多优势另外我们也推荐日根据媒体报道南京允许合资格人士在一些限购区域购买第107140继续保持势头有所扩大但我们认为原因主要是去年的高基数从环比角度看2022政策76631052612295049504107572651796632412067629599214014014622334年P在12而是要等待更长的时间需要看到12支持一系317140龙湖集团6914415622月9598959810007357154567931285872813746510月初宣布全国范围内015015719228开发商的融资主要是用于保交付而不是土地投资我们认为在明年第一季度房列解决房地产开发商流动性的政策出台之后我们观察到更多的重点城市也进一912022日佛山宣布在一些限购区域放松房地产限购政策至此佛山全市解除了住至1000960年10258102581176332341012253482210611061759016697476157369613281月份0160166952201至HK8811和153月10980109801337044158137优化22101510157815178778921694的同比下跌进一步扩大至7030705677017017全国589255金地集团疫情防控政策我们相信疫情下受压制的购房需求会逐步房地产TablePageHeader1101202612026149977814217210712222822382232093873717179552130180181524291936工作和生活秩序完全从600383累计竣工面积同比另外我们也认为市场关注的重点是什么时114132191321915973490122SH89388938227293101716992687856665019019498258959同时我们认为中交地产9811三套房我们相信在接下来的几个月份进一步减弱我们相信主要原因是较为平141441414417361114912229268926822449860176111700137592687下跌020020499255912月单月的竣工面积大幅增中国19015511414760147601013918193我们当前对板块所疫情防控措施1122210141014975419891794万科企业442452281948021021510216虽然下跌幅度rprySectorProperty20221111538190389233266123861238611865986543000736100年89698969978512131116M22M2202202552557PagePage2023调整851至2ofof5n2argiMbleTa1nigraMelbaTFlashNotePropertySector房地产行业15December2022SeethelastpagAppendixSourceSourceFigureSourceFigureSourceFigure100001200014000160001800020000100012501500175020002250250010000120001400016000e20004000600080002000400060008000250500750fo00r0disclaimermnmnsqmRMBbnNBSNBSNBSRMBbnGFANewStartsLHS531GuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiInternationalJunanGuotaiInternationalJunanGuotaiRealRealPropertyPropertyNBSAmountSoldYTDYoYofResidentialHousesRHSAmountSoldYTDYoYofCommodityHousesRHSAmountSoldofResidentialHousesLHSAmountSoldofCommodityHousesLHSInvestmentinResidentialHousesYTDYoYRHSInvestmentYTDYoYRHSInvestmentinResidentialHousesLHSInvestmentLHSepropertydstatensalesalesewewinvestmentsvtartsataataalueGFANewStartsYTDYoYRHScinChinainhartsinChinaininChinainP-60-40-20020406080100120140160-20-1001020304050-60-40-20020406080cFigureSourceNBSFigureSourceSourceNBSFigureSourceNBS1000012000ompletedompleted200040006000800010001250150017502000100200300400500600250500750000mnmnsqmmnmnsqmmnmnsqm426GuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiInternationalJunanGuotaiPropertiesPropertyUnsoldUnsoldinChinaTablePageHeaderGFASoldofResidentialHousesYTDYoYRHSGFASoldofCommodityHousesYTDYoYRHSGFASoldofResidentialHousesLHSGFASoldofCommodityHousesLHSGFACompletedYTDYoYRHSGFAunderConstructionYTDYoYRHSGFACompletedLHSGFAUnderConstructionLHSUnsoldResidentialGFAYTDYoYRHSUnsoldGFAYTDYoYRHSUnsoldResidentialGFALHSUnsoldGFALHSpropertiessalesalesunderndervolumeinChinainolumeconstructionandandonstructioninChinarprySectorProperty-60-40-20020406080100120-20-15-10-505101520-30-20-1001020304050PagePage3ofof5n2argiMbleTa1nigraMelbaTFlashNotePropertySector房地产行业15December2022SeethelastpagSourceSourceFigure100012001400160018002000e200400600800fo0rdisclaimerNBSRMBbn7LandGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaipLandPurchaseAmountYTDYoYRHSLandPurchaseAmountLHSurchasesininChinaP-60-50-40-30-20-100102030SourceSourceNBSFigure100120-60-40-202040608008GuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiChinaChinaTablePageHeaderPersonalMortgageYTDYoYDepositsandAdvancePaymentsYTDYoYSelf-raisingFundsYTDYoYDomesticLoansYTDYoYdeveloperssourcesofourcesfundsrprySectorPropertyPagePage4ofof5n2argiMbleTa1nigraMelbaTFlashNotePropertySector房地产行业15December2022SeeWebsitewwwgtjacomhkTel852250927FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongResearchThisReportnotisdirectedorintendedatdistributionfortoorbyanyusepersonorentitywhoThougheffortbestbeenhasensuremadetoaccuracytheoftheinformationanddatacontainedthisinResearchReportGuotaiAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwdReportResearchThisDISCLAIMERinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulatiorlawsubjectGuotaiJunanandgroupapplicableitscompaniesanytoregistrationtoorlicenscontrarybewoulduseoravailabilitypublicationdistributionsuchwherejurisdictionanyinunpredicandwherenecessaryinherentlyconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionwithconditionseconomicandpoliticalfuturecomprandunderstandshouldInvestorscontainmayuncertaintythesosituationmutableofassumptionsthefromderivedforecastsandestimatesRepResearchThishereindataandinformationtheofcompletenessandaccuracytheguaranteenotbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebyassetthemanagementandinvestmentbankinggroureportthisexpressedinopinionscompaniesAnyofprofessionalGuotaiJunanothergroupandexecutivesdealersofpersonsproprietarilyreportsincludinginvestmentbankingHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunana654321DISCLOSUREOFTabledisclosureRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkTableSectorRatingDefinitionSectorRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkCompanythTableCompanyRatingDefinition2022eUnderperformNeutralOutperformSellReduceNeutralAccumulateBuylasReportThereisGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedReportResthisinmentionedissuertheofrespectinsecuritiestheinmarketamakingnotarecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiHKA01995SERVICEESCIFIwithrelationshipsbankinginvestment03319HKFINANCIALSTREEThadPROPERTY01502HKmentionedthisinhaveResearchReportcompanie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