传统电商继续压缩成本，导致业绩普遍好于预期。传统电商平台收入基本符合预期。这些平台正在压缩内部成本并缩小新业务计划的损失，从而推动盈利能力的强劲提升。效率提升带动电商龙头规模效应增强。总体而言，盈利能力和投资回报率仍然是平台的首要任务。
　　等待基本面变化的信号，但流动性改善和市场情绪向好将推升中国电商板块的短期估值。此前，行业发展向公用事业倾斜的担忧加剧，导致估值回调。政策监管是创造更好竞争环境的步骤之一，有助于电商企业有序健康发展。目前，电商参与者正在关注如何提升效率并降低成本。此外，股市流动性有改善迹象，平台互联网政策监管边际改善，都将在短期内推动估值回升。对于长期的行业估值，需要更多积极的基本面变化信号，包括i)国内消费复苏，ii)电商行业的市场份额稳定，以及iii)行业更积极的投资。
　　我们的首选股是拼多多公司(PDDUS,“拼多多”)，其扩张速度快于行业，盈利能力强劲改善。拼多多同时抓住了国内商机和海外业务机会，未来将释放更多增长潜力。我们对拼多多的目标价为105.00美元，对应47.7倍/33.0倍/24.9倍2022/2023/2024年市盈率，投资评级为“收集”。此外，我们预计阿里巴巴-SW(09988 HK，“阿里巴巴”)和京东-SW(09618HK，“京东”)的估值在流动性改善和市场情绪向好的背景下均有回升空间。我们对批发零售行业给予“跑赢大市”评级。

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus14December2022TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus今IndustryandCompanyFocus行业和公司焦点晨Nil焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变SectorReportStrongProfitabilityWholesaleImprovementinE-Commerce--Outperform--NRetailSectorAwaitingMorePositiveSignsofFundamentalChange行业报告电商盈利能力强劲改善等待批发零售行业--跑赢大市--否更多积极的基本面变化信号证告券NewlyPublishedKeyEconomicDataforChinaUSandEurope研报中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据究究报研AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports告券后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版EquityResearchReport证HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900012000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover1959620068124088821622恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE665485040166141482077国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of5MorningResearchFocusHSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE4223200733523690033477100科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasatDec13PleasesubscribeGTJAIResearchandanalystsWechatsubscriptionaccount国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究PleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJIndustryandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsSectorReportWholesaleRetailSectorStrongProfitabilityImprovementinE-CommerceAwaitingMorePositiveSignsofFundamentalChangeRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystDannyLawReportDate2022-12-13SummaryTraditionale-commerceplayershavecontinuedtosqueezecostsleadingtoconsensus-beatingresultsingeneralRevenueoftraditionale-commercecompaniesoverallwasbasicallyinlinewithexpectationsTraditionalplatformsaresqueezinginternalcostsandreducinglossesfromnewbusinessinitiativesdrivingstrongprofitabilityimprovementThroughefficiencyimprovementthescaleeffectofleadinge-commerceplayershasstrengthenedOverallprofitabilityandROIremainasprioritiesAwaitingsignsoffundamentalchangebutliquidityimprovementandbettermarketsentimentwilldriveshort-termvaluationforthee-commercesectorinChinaPreviouslyincreasedworriesaboutindustrydevelopmenttendingtopublicutilityledtovaluationcorrectionPolicysupervisionhasbeenoneofthestepstocreateabettercompetitivee-commerceenvironmenthelpinge-commerceplayerstoexpandinanorderlyandhealthywayNowe-commerceplayersarefocusingonhowtooptimizeefficiencyandreducecostsFurthermoretherearesomesignsofimprovementinmarketliquidityandmarginalimprovementinpolicysupervisionforthesectordrivingvaluationrecoveryintheshorttermSectorvaluationinthelongtermwillrequirefurtherpositivesignsoffundamentalchangeincludingidomesticconsumptionrecoveryiistablemarketshareofe-commercesectorandiiimoreaggressiveinvestmentwithintheindustryOurtoppickisPinduoduoIncPDDUSPDDwhichreportedfaster-than-industrygrowthandstrongprofitabilityimprovementPDDhasseizeddomesticbusinessopportunitiesandoverseasbusinessexposuremoregrowthisexpectedgoingforwardOurTPforPDDisUS10500correspondingto477x330x249x202220232024PERtheinvestmentratingisAccumulateAlsowebelievethatvaluationofAlibaba-SW09988HKAlibabaandJD-SW09618HKJDhaveroomtorecoveronthebackofliquidityimprovementandbettermarketsentimentWesetOutperformratingforthewholesaleretailsectorSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of5MorningResearchFocusTableFocusNewlyPublishedKeyEconomicDataforChinaUSandEuropeTableNewlyPublished中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据AnalystAndyHuang分析员黄凯鸿CurrentMarketCountryIndicatorDataPeriodMoMQoQYoYValueConsensus国家指标名称数据期间环比变动同比变动当期值市场一致预期USCPIMoMNov0103ppts06ppts03美国消费者物价指数环比增速11月USCPICoreMoMNov0201ppts03ppts03美国核心消费者物价指数环比增速11月SourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaUniversityofMichiganBloomberg数据来源中国国家统计局密歇根大学彭博ChineseTranslation中文翻译TableFocuschi行业和公司焦点Nil无TableLatestchi最新报告行业报告批发零售行业电商盈利能力强劲改善等待更多积极的基本面变化信号评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员罗沛达报告日期2022-12-13报告摘要传统电商继续压缩成本导致业绩普遍好于预期传统电商平台收入基本符合预期这些平台正在压缩内部成本并缩小新业务计划的损失从而推动盈利能力的强劲提升效率提升带动电商龙头规模效应增强总体而言盈利能力和投资回报率仍然是平台的首要任务等待基本面变化的信号但流动性改善和市场情绪向好将推升中国电商板块的短期估值此前行业发展向公用事业倾斜的担忧加剧导致估值回调政策监管是创造更好竞争环境的步骤之一有助于电商企业有序健康发展目前电商参与者正在关注如何提升效率并降低成本此外股市流动性有改善迹象平台互联网政策监管边际改善都将在短期内推动估值回升对于长期的行业估值需要更多积极的基本面变化信号包括i国内消费复苏ii电商行业的市场份额稳定以及iii行业更积极的投资我们的首选股是拼多多公司PDDUS拼多多其扩张速度快于行业盈利能力强劲改善拼多多同时抓住了国内商机和海外业务机会未来将释放更多增长潜力我们对拼多多的目标价为10500美元对应477倍330倍249倍202220232024年市盈率投资评级为收集此外我们预计阿里巴巴-SW09988HK阿里巴巴和京东-SW09618HK京东的估值在流动性改善和市场情绪向好的背景下均有回升空间我们对批发零售行业给予跑赢大市评级Seethelastpagefordisclaimer3of5MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjasc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NKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKLENOVO00992HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2022GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer5of5