报告摘要
　　2022年1至11月全国房地产销售金额同比下跌26.6%，与预期基本一致。今年1至11月，全国商品房累计销售面积和金额分别同比下跌23.3%和26.6%。11月单月的销售数据环比略微复苏，增长3.8%，而同比仍然大幅下跌32.2%。考虑到克而瑞11月底披露的销售数据作为预先指标，已经显示了销售上的疲弱，我们认为这基本与市场的预期没有出入。根据克而瑞数据，主要50家开发商2022年11月单月的总合约销售金额同比下跌幅度为34.8%。即使和10月单月数据相比，也录得了环比7.9%的跌幅。我们将11月销售乏力的主要原因归结于以下两点。首先是在11月份，中国的主要城市仍然执行严格的疫情防控措施。最近疫情防控的情况已经发生转变。随着政府在12月初宣布全国范围内优化疫情防控政策，我们相信疫情下受压制的购房需求会逐步释放。第二个原因是市场仍然在期待更多的来自需求端政策的放松，这也使得购房者更多的仍然保持观望的态度。我们认为短期不会看到全国的房地产销售数字迅速反弹，而是要等待更长的时间，需要看到：1）工作和生活秩序完全从中国疫情防控措施调整中恢复；以及2）更多的针对购房人的需求端放松政策出台。因此，我们认为房地产销售录得正向同比增长的最早时间可能是2023年的第二季度。
　　房地产竣工将在2023年第一季度继续保持势头。2022年1至11月，全国房地产累计竣工面积同比下跌19.0%。虽然下跌幅度相比2022年1至10月的18.7%有所扩大，但我们认为原因主要是去年的高基数。从环比角度看，11月单月的竣工面积大幅增长了60.8%。在地产“三只箭”政策助力开发商再融资之后，我们认为房地产竣工数字将在明年第一季度都保持高景气的势头，尤其是考虑到政府关于“保交付”的决心。另一方面，我们也注意到，房地产开发投资数字在11月份进一步减弱。2022年1至11月，房地产累计开发投资额同比下跌幅度相较1至10月份8.8%的同比下跌进一步扩大至9.8%。我们相信主要原因是较为平淡的土地市场和较弱的新开工。考虑到对于支持开发商的融资主要是用于保交付而不是土地投资，我们认为在明年第一季度，房地产开发投资可能都会保持较低的景气度。
　　我们看到了更多来自需求端的放松政策。在一系列解决房地产开发商流动性的政策出台之后，我们观察到更多的重点城市也进一步宣布了针对购房者的放松政策。2022年12月9日，佛山宣布在一些限购区域放松房地产限购政策，至此，佛山全市解除了住房限购政策。2012年12月13日，根据媒体报道，南京允许合资格人士在一些限购区域购买第三套房。我们相信在接下来的几个月，会有更多的来自重点一、二线城市的需求端放松政策出台。
　　行业观点：随着开发商流动性问题的逐步化解，我们认为板块的估值恢复将会持续。另外，我们也认为市场关注的重点是什么时候地产销售状况发生根本的复苏。市场预期的扭转，决定于需求端放松政策将如何进行以及深入到什么程度。我们当前对板块所持的评级是“跑赢大市”。我们推荐优质民企龙湖集团（00960HK）和金地集团（600383SH）。同时我们认为中交地产（000736SZ）以及建发国际（01908HK）作为较小的央国企，将在当前融资宽松环境下看到更多优势。另外，我们也推荐万科企业（02202HK），考虑到其稳健的基本面和财务优势。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研究TableTitleEquityResearchResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus16December2022TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus今NewsFocus新闻焦点晨IndustryandCompanyFocus行业和公司焦点焦ResearchNil无点MorningLatestReports最新报告摘要CompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变FlashNoteNovNBSDataWeakPropertyRecoverySalesDataasExpected--Outperform--NSectorTimeNeededtoRepairConfidence快讯月全国房地产数据点评销售复11房地产行业--跑赢大市--否苏疲软信心恢复仍需时日证ConstructionFlashNoteJan-Nov2022ChinaFAI告券EngineeringIncreased53YoY03pptsLower--Outperform--N研Sector报ThanExpectation快讯2022年1-11月全国固定资产投资建筑工程行业--跑赢大市--否究究同比增53较预期低03个百分点ChinaStateToEnterWasteTreatmentMarketin报研Construction03311HKHongKongWithaTechnologicalHK1420--Buy--Y告InternationalApproachMaintainBuy券EquityResearchReport科技赋能进军香港废物处理市场维持中国建筑国际03311HKHK1420--买入--是证买入SectorReportNumerousPositiveBankingFactorsExpectedtoSupport--Outperform--NSectorImprovementinValuationsOutperform行业报告预计多重正面因素支撑估值银行行业--跑赢大市--否改善跑赢大市NewServiceFrameworkAgreementsChina00788HKWereBetterThanMarketHK102Accumulate--YTowerExpectationsAccumulate中国铁塔00788HK新服务框架协议好于市场预期收集HK102收集--是TypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题宏观美联储和市场的3点核心分歧2022年12月15日MacroChina2023OutlookAYearofHope15December2022DataUpdateCriticalSectorDataUpdate15December2022数据更新行业关键数据更新2022年12月15日AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of12MorningResearchFocusHSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900012000270002500010000230008000210001900060001700015000400013000200011000Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover1936859-155136364816022恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE659146-165190141500391国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE413642-2393535280033448400科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasatDec14PleasesubscribeGTJAIResearchandanalystsWechatsubscriptionaccount国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究PleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJNewsFocus新闻焦点TableNewsFocusMarketNews市场新闻VicePremierLiuHesaidthatChinaisveryconfidentthattheChineseeconomywillachieveoverallimprovementnextyearTherealestateindustryisapillarofthenationaleconomyInresponsetothecurrentdownsideriskswehaveintroducedsomepoliciesandareconsideringnewmeasurestoimprovethebalancesheetoftheindustryandguidetherecoveryofmarketexpectationsandconfidence国务院副总理刘鹤指出对于明年中国经济实现整体性好转我们极有信心房地产是国民经济的支柱产业针对当前出现的下行风险我们已出台一些政策正在考虑新的举措努力改善行业的资产负债状况引导市场预期和信心回暖MajoreconomicdatareleasedinChinainNovembershowedyear-on-yeargrowthofindustrialoutputretailsalesSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of12MorningResearchFocusofconsumergoodsandurbanfixedassetinvestmentat22-59and53respectivelyallbelowmarketexpectations中国11月主要经济数据出炉规模以上工业增加值社会消费品零售城镇固定资产投资同比增速分别为22-59和53均低于市场预期TheEuropeanCentralBankdulyraisedinterestratesby50basispointseasingthepaceoftighteningaftertwosuccessive75-basispointincreasestothehighestlevelsinceDecember2008欧洲央行如期加息50个基点在连续两次加息75个基点后放缓紧缩步伐利率水平达2008年12月以来最高IndustryandCompanyFocusNil无Seethelastpagefordisclaimer3of12MorningResearchFocusTableTableFocusLatestLatestReportsFlashNotePropertySectorNovNBSDataWeakRecoverySalesDataasExpectedTimeNeededtoRepairConfidenceRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystChunliZhanReportDate2022-12-15Summary11M2022nationalpropertysalesvaluedeclinedby266YoYasweakasexpectedNationalpropertysalesvolumevaluedeclinedYoYby233266in11M2022ThemonthlysalesdatainNovslightlyrecoveredatMoMincreaseof38butstillrecordedlargeYoYdeclineof322WebelievethereisnosurprisetothemarketgiventheweakpreliminarysalesdatadisclosedbyChinaRealEstateInformationCorporationCRICattheendofNov2022AccordingtoCRICthetotalcontractedsalesfromtheleading50developersinChinainNov2022declinedby348YoYEvencomparedwiththatinOct2022itstillrecordedMoMdeclineof79WeattributethelacklustersalesinNov2022totwomainreasonsOneisthatChinaexecutedstrictCovid-19restrictionsinmostcitiesacrossChinainNov2022ThissituationhasrecentlychangedAsthegovernmentannouncednationwidelooseningoftheserestrictionsatthebeginningofDec2022webelievethatpent-updemandfromhomebuyerswillbegraduallyreleasedThesecondreasonisthatthemarketstillexpectsmorepolicylooseningfromthedemandsideandhencemosthomebuyersstillholdawait-and-seeattitudeWebelievethatnationalsalesmaynotreboundfromthebottomintheneartermastimeisneededtosee1recoveryinworkandlifeaftertheremovalofCovidrestrictionsinChinaand2moredemand-sidelooseningpoliciesforhomebuyersHenceweviewthesecondquarterof2023astheearliesttimetoseepossibleYoYpropertysalesgrowthPropertycompletionisgoingtomaintainmomentumin1Q2023In11M2022theYoYdeclineofGFAcompletionwas190Althoughthedeclinewidenedfrom187in10M2022webelievethemainreasonisthehighdatabaseoflastyearFromaMoMperspectiveGFAcompletioninNov2022increasedgreatlyby608AfterthethreearrowscameouttosupportrefinancingfordevelopersweexpectGFAcompletiondatatofurtheraccelerateinthefirstquarterofnextyeargiventhegovernmentsdeterminationofensuringconstructioncompletionOntheothersidewehaveobservedthatrealestateinvestmentcontinuedtoweakeninNov2022Theaccumulatedrealestateinvestmentamountin11M2022declinedby98YoYwhichwidenedfromthatof88YoYdeclinein10M2022WebelievethemaindragswereinactivelandacquisitionsandweaknewstartsConsideringthattheuseofsupportivefundingfordevelopersisensuringcompletioninsteadoflandinvestmentsweexpecttherealestateinvestmentdatatoremainweakin1Q2023WehaveseenmorepolicylooseningfromthedemandsideAfteraslewofsupportivepoliciestoeaseliquiditypressureondevelopersweobservedmorekeycitiesannouncedfurtherlooseningpoliciesforhomebuyersOn9Dec2022Foshanannouncedtorelaxthehome-purchaserestrictionsincertaindistrictswhichimpliedalldistrictsinFoshanhavenohome-purchaserestrictionsOn13Dec2022accordingtomediareportsNanjingallowedqualifiedpersonstobuyathirdhomeinsomehome-purchaserestricteddistrictsWebelievethatinthefollowingmonthswewillseemorefine-tuningofdemandsidepolicyinkeytier-1andtier-2citiesSectorviewWebelievethatthesectorvaluationwillcontinuetoimproveasliquidityconcernswillbegraduallyremovedAlsowethinkthekeyfocusforthesectoriswhenthephysicalmarketwillreallyrecoverTheturnaroundinmarketexpectationdependsonhowandtowhatextentlooseningofdemand-sidepolicywilldeepenOurcurrentinvestmentratingonthesectorisOutperformWerecommendLongfor00960HKandGemdale600383SHasqualitynamesamongprivatedevelopersWebelieveCCCGRealEstate000736SZandCDInternational01908HKarebeneficiariessincesmallerSOEsmayseemorestrengthduetofinancialeasingWealsorecommendVanke-H02202HKbasedonitssolidfundamentalsandtheirfinancialedgeFlashNoteConstructionEngineeringSectorJan-Nov2022ChinaFAIIncreased53YoY03pptsLowerThanExpectationRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystGaryWongReportDate2022-12-15SummaryAccordingtotheNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaJan-Nov2022ChinaFAIamountedtoRMB520043Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of12MorningResearchFocusbillionup53YoY03pptslowerthanexpectationThereareseveralpointsworthdiscussingFirstJan-NovprivateFAIgrowthratewas11slightlylowerthanexpectationthiswasduetoresurgencesinlocalCovid-19epidemiccasesinsomeregionsinChinainNovemberHoweverwiththeliftingoflockdownmeasuresinDecember2022weexpectinvestmentgrowthtopickupinDecemberbutwillstillbelowerthantheoriginalestimateof3Welowerthe2022forecastforprivateFAIgrowthto15SecondJan-Novoverallinfrastructureinvestmentgrowthwas8902pptshigherthanthe87investmentgrowthinJan-Octofwhichirrigationenvironmentandpublicfacilitiesmanagementinvestmentgrowthratewas116whiletransportstorageandpost-investmentgrowthratewas78bothwereinlinewithexpectationThirdJan-Novpropertydevelopmentinvestmentgrowthratewas-9806pptsbelowexpectationAlthoughanumberofpowerfulmeasurestosupportrealestatecompanieswereintroducedinNovemberwethinkthatrealestatecompanieswillfocusonreducingdebtandstrengtheningcashflowmanagementandreduceinvestmentandweexpectthegrowthrateofpropertydevelopmentinvestmentin2022todropYoYby5-10AccordingtostatisticsfromthePeoplesBankofChinatheincreaseinsocialfinancinginNovemberreachedRMB199trillionlowerthanthemarketexpectationofRMB21trillionInadditionaccordingtostatisticsfromtheChinaConstructionMachineryAssociationthe26excavatormanufacturersincludedinthestatisticsinNovembersoldatotalof23680excavatorsofvarioustypesanincreaseof158YoYfurtheracceleratedfromthe81growthinOctoberThePoliticalBureauoftheCentralCommitteemeetingonDecember6calledforavigorousboostinmarketconfidencehighlightingtheworkofstabilizinggrowthemploymentandpricesandthegovernmentmustcontinuetoimplementaproactivefiscalpolicyandastablemonetarypolicyin2023FiscalpolicyneedstobereinforcedandwithimprovedefficiencywhilestablemonetarypolicyneedstobepreciseandpowerfulEffortsshouldbemadetoexpanddomesticdemandandgivefullplaytothebasicroleofconsumptionandthekeyroleofinvestmentInadditionMrLiChaovicechairmanoftheChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionstatedatthefirstYangtzeRiverDeltaREITsForumandChinaREITsForum2022AnnualMeetingonDecember8thatthescopeofREITspilotswillbefurtherexpandedtocovernewenergywaterconservancynewinfrastructureandotherinfrastructurefieldsassoonaspossibleandtoacceleratetheinclusionoftheaffordablerentalhousingsectorintheREITsmarketWethinkthattheabovemeasureshavehadaverypositiveimpactontheconstructionengineeringindustryandthemarketdoesnotfullyrealizethehiddenvalueofCentralSOEconstructionengineeringcompaniesthatholdalargeamountofinfrastructureinvestmentreiterateOutperformratingforthesectorMaintainBuyratingforChinaRailwayConstruction01186HKChinaRailwayGroup00390HKandChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKandAccumulateratingforChinaCommunicationsConstructionCompany01800HKChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKToEnterWasteTreatmentMarketinHongKongWithaTechnologicalApproachMaintainBuyRatingBuy6-18mTPHK1420AnalystGaryWongReportDate2022-12-15SummaryWemaintaintheTPatHK1420representing81x72x64x202220232024EVEBITDAReiterateBuyrating1IncontrasttothemarketsviewthattheCompanyingeneralonlyconstructsroadsandbridgesandpublichousinginHongKongweviewtheCompanysexpansionintothewastetreatmentfacilitiesconstructionandmanagementbusinessasverysignificant2IncontrasttothemarketsviewthattheCompanyhaslittlebusinessexposuretocarbonneutralitytheCompanyhasalreadywidelyusedcarbonneutralitytechnologyinitsbusinessTheCompanyemploysatechnology-drivenapproachtotackletheincreasinglysignificantchallengessuchasnewrequirementspertainingtocarbonneutralitysustainedincreaseinworkersalarycostsandunsatisfactorysitesafetyperformanceTheCompanywillemergestrongerpostmarketconsolidationandbecomeoneofthefewwinnersinthenewconstruction20eraCatalystsAseriesofsupply-sidelooseningpoliciesforChinaspropertysectorissuedinNovemberintensivelyboostedmarketsentimentRisks1Governmentinfrastructurespendingmaybelowerthanexpected2possibleinflationexceedingexpectationsmaycausepolicytightening3possibleworldwideCovidpandemicresurgencesSeethelastpagefordisclaimer5of12MorningResearchFocusSectorReportBankingSectorNumerousPositiveFactorsExpectedtoSupportImprovementinValuationsOutperformRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystRichardCaoReportDate2022-12-15SummaryRelaxationofrelevantpoliciesRiskexposuretotherealestateindustryandlocalCovid-19epidemicconditionswerethemainfactorsdrivinglowvaluationsofmainlandChinesebankslistedinHongKonginrecentyearsHowevertherealestateindustryisseeingsignsofrecoveryandthelocalCovid-19epidemicsituationisimprovingFirstaseriesofsupportivepoliciesfortherealestatemarkethavebeenissuedbytheChinesegovernmentThesepoliciesaimtoexpandfinancingchannelsforrealestateenterprisesintheformsofloansbondfinancingandequityfinancingwhichisexpectedtoeffectivelytackletheuncertaintiessurroundingtherealestateindustrySecondanti-epidemicpolicieshavebeencontinuouslyoptimizedwhichisexpectedtostimulatedemandandpromoteeconomicrecoveryGiventherelaxationofrelevantpoliciesweexpectthattheChineseeconomywillstabilizeandrecoverValuationshavehitthebottomAtpresenttheweightedaveragePBformainlandChinesebankslistedinHongKongisaround050xandtheNPLratiowhichisimpliedbythecurrentvaluationofthemainlandbankingsectorreached21whichisexpectedtohavefullypricedinthepossiblenegativefactorsaffectingvaluationsincludingtherepricingofloansin1Q2023ExpectedrecoveryoffinancialresultsWeexpectthatgrowthinoperatingincometobethelowestin3Q2022andstarttotrendupfrom2Q2023WemaintainOutperformratingforthebankingsectorin2023WeexpectthattheabovementionedthreepositivefactorswillsupportimprovementofvaluationsofmainlandbankslistedinHongKongWepickmainlandbankswhowillbenefitmostfromtherelaxationofrealestateindustry-relatedpoliciesandmainlandbankswhosefinancialresultsperformanceisexpectedtobebetterasourpriorityrecommendationsWerecommendCMB03968HKandPSBC01658HKMeawhilewealsorecommendBOCHK02388HKandHSBC00005HKwhowillbenefitfromtheUSFederalReservescontinuousinterestratehikesandearningsgrowthisexpectedtoremaingoodin2023ChinaTower00788HKNewServiceFrameworkAgreementsWereBetterThanMarketExpectationsAccumulateRatingAccumulate6-18mTPHK102AnalystGinYuReportDate2022-12-15SummaryWereviseupTPfromHK092toHK102andmaintaintheCompanysinvestmentratingasAccumulateWeforecastFY22-FY24EPStobeRMB0050RMB0055RMB0062respectivelyGiventhebetter-than-expectedserviceframeworkagreementswereviseuptheTPandmaintaintheinvestmentratingasAccumulateChinaTowersnewserviceframeworkagreementswithtelecomoperatorswerebetterthanmarketexpectationsAccordingtothenewagreementsa24discountwillbegiventothebasepriceofexistingordersandco-locationdiscountstobasepricehavegenerallybeenrevisedupby24pptforneworderscomparedwitholdagreementsDuetodiscountsonexistingordersandrisingco-locationdiscountrateonnewordersrevenueoftowerbusinesswillbenegativelyaffectedbutwithcontinuous5Gnetworkexpansionweexpecttowerbusinessin2023tobebasicallystableWeexpectthegrowthrateofTwoWingsbusinesstoexceedmarketexpectationsRelyingonextensivesiteresourcesandstrongcapabilitiesweexpecttheCompanystowermonitoringbusinessandsiteleasebusinesstofurtherexpandtomorecustomersandgreaterdepthofbusinesscooperationInadditionsmarttowerbusinesswillcontinuetotransformfromsimplyprovidingsiteresourcestoprovidingcomprehensiveinformationserviceswhichwillcontinuetoimprovethevaluepersiteRelyingonitsexpandingsiteresourcesandhugemarketdemandweexpectenergybusinesstostillgrowstronglyCatalystRisingdividendpayoutratiofaster-than-expectedgrowthofTwoWingsbusinessRiskwarningSlower-than-expectedgrowthofTwoWingsbusinessslower-than-expected5GconstructionSeethelastpagefordisclaimer6of12MorningResearchFocusChina2023OutlookAYearofHopeMacroTeamHaoZhouBillySunReportDate2022-12-15SummaryTheyearaheadfortheChineseeconomyisayearofhopeWithrecentpolicychangesonCovidrulesandthepropertysectorconcernsloomingoverinvestorshavebeenalleviatedsomewhatWeexpectsolidimprovementinfundamentalsandtheChineseeconomyislikelytobottomoutinthefirstquarterof2023andpickupfromthesecondquarterof2023onwardsDomesticfrontsaresettobethemainengineofgrowthConsumptionislikelytoseemeaningfulandsustainablerecoveryMeanwhilethefiredthreearrowswillsupportthehousingmarkettotransitionthroughamoreorderlyadjustmentwithmilddeleveragingthusinvestorscanfindanewandmorepragmaticapproachinpricinginproperty-relatedassetsTheeconomyhasregainedpriorityonthepolicyagendaAgrowthtargetofaround5for2023looksthemostlikelyscenariofromtheperspectiveofpolicymakerswhileanincreaseinfiscaldeficitfrom28in2022toaround3isthebaselinescenarioinourviewWeforecastgrowthofChinaseconomytopickupto48YoYin2023upfrom31in2022onthebackoflowbaseeffectandsupportivepoliciesWeexpectthePBoCtolowerpolicyratesieMLFratesby10bpsinthefirsthalfof2023CPIinflationwillremainbenignandweexpectwhole-yearCPIinflationtoincrease16YoYfrom19in2022IntermsofCNYoutlooktherangeof680-715isthenewcentralrangeforUSD-CNYOvertheshorttermgrowthandpolicyenthusiasmarelikelytodriveUSD-CNYlowerhowevertheinterestratedisadvantagescouldliftUSD-CNYHenceweseeastablecurrencytobethekeythemeforUSD-CNYoverthecomingyearChineseTranslation中文翻译行业和公司焦点TableFocuschiNil无TableLatestchi最新报告快讯房地产行业11月全国房地产数据点评销售复苏疲软信心恢复仍需时日评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员詹春立报告日期2022-12-15报告摘要2022年1至11月全国房地产销售金额同比下跌266与预期基本一致今年1至11月全国商品房累计销售面积和金额分别同比下跌233和26611月单月的销售数据环比略微复苏增长38而同比仍然大幅下跌322考虑到克而瑞11月底披露的销售数据作为预先指标已经显示了销售上的疲弱我们认为这基本与市场的预期没有出入根据克而瑞数据主要50家开发商2022年11月单月的总合约销售金额同比下跌幅度为348即使和10月单月数据相比也录得了环比79的跌幅我们将11月销售乏力的主要原因归结于以下两点首先是在11月份中国的主要城市仍然执行严格的疫情防控措施最近疫情防控的情况已经发生转变随着政府在12月初宣布全国范围内优化疫情防控政策我们相信疫情下受压制的购房需求会逐步释放第二个原因是市场仍然在期待更多的来自需求端政策的放松这也使得购房者更多的仍然保持观望的态度我们认为短期不会看到全国的房地产销售数字迅速反弹而是要等待更长的时间需要看到Seethelastpagefordisclaimer7of12MorningResearchFocus1工作和生活秩序完全从中国疫情防控措施调整中恢复以及2更多的针对购房人的需求端放松政策出台因此我们认为房地产销售录得正向同比增长的最早时间可能是2023年的第二季度房地产竣工将在2023年第一季度继续保持势头2022年1至11月全国房地产累计竣工面积同比下跌190虽然下跌幅度相比2022年1至10月的187有所扩大但我们认为原因主要是去年的高基数从环比角度看11月单月的竣工面积大幅增长了608在地产三只箭政策助力开发商再融资之后我们认为房地产竣工数字将在明年第一季度都保持高景气的势头尤其是考虑到政府关于保交付的决心另一方面我们也注意到房地产开发投资数字在11月份进一步减弱2022年1至11月房地产累计开发投资额同比下跌幅度相较1至10月份88的同比下跌进一步扩大至98我们相信主要原因是较为平淡的土地市场和较弱的新开工考虑到对于支持开发商的融资主要是用于保交付而不是土地投资我们认为在明年第一季度房地产开发投资可能都会保持较低的景气度我们看到了更多来自需求端的放松政策在一系列解决房地产开发商流动性的政策出台之后我们观察到更多的重点城市也进一步宣布了针对购房者的放松政策2022年12月9日佛山宣布在一些限购区域放松房地产限购政策至此佛山全市解除了住房限购政策2012年12月13日根据媒体报道南京允许合资格人士在一些限购区域购买第三套房我们相信在接下来的几个月会有更多的来自重点一二线城市的需求端放松政策出台行业观点随着开发商流动性问题的逐步化解我们认为板块的估值恢复将会持续另外我们也认为市场关注的重点是什么时候地产销售状况发生根本的复苏市场预期的扭转决定于需求端放松政策将如何进行以及深入到什么程度我们当前对板块所持的评级是跑赢大市我们推荐优质民企龙湖集团00960HK和金地集团600383SH同时我们认为中交地产000736SZ以及建发国际01908HK作为较小的央国企将在当前融资宽松环境下看到更多优势另外我们也推荐万科企业02202HK考虑到其稳健的基本面和财务优势快讯建筑工程行业2022年1-11月全国固定资产投资同比增53较预期低03个百分点评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员黄家玮报告日期2022-12-15报告摘要据中国国家统计局的数据显示2022年1-11月全国固定资产投资额为520043亿元人民币下同同比增53较预期低03个百分点我们认为数据有几点值得讨论首先1-11月民间固定资产投资增速为11略低于预期主要受到11月国内部分地区疫情反复的影响然而随着12月封控措施的优化调整我们预计12月的投资增速将有所回升但仍应略低于原预期的3我们调低2022年民间固定资产投资增速预测至15第二1-11月整体基建投资增速为89较1-10月的87增速提高02个百分点其中水利环境和公共设施管理业投资增速为116交通运输仓储和邮政业投资增速为78均符合预期第三1-11月房地产开发投资增速为-98较预期低06个百分点虽然11月出台多项支持房地产企业的有力措施但我们认为房地产企业将以减债及加强现金流管理为主而减少投资预计2022年全年房地产开发的投资增速将同比跌5至10根据中国人民银行数据11月社会融资规模增量为199万亿元低于市场预期的21万亿元此外根据中国工程机械工业协会数据11月纳入统计的26家挖掘机制造企业共销售各类挖掘机23680台同比增158增速较10月的81进一步加快12月6日的中央政治局会议要求大力提振市场信心突出做好稳增长稳就业稳物价工作2023年要继续实施积极财政政策和稳健货币政策积极的财政政策要加力提效稳健的货币政策要精准有力要着力扩大国内需求充分发挥消费的基础作用和投资的关键作用此外证监会副主席李超12月8日在首届长三角REITs论坛暨中国REITs论坛2022年会上表示将进一步扩大REITs试点范围尽快覆盖到新能源水利新基建等基础设施领域并加快打造REITs市场的保障性租赁住房板块我们认为上述举措对建筑工程行业的影响十分积极市场并未充分认识到持有大量基建投资的建筑工程央企的隐藏价值重申行业跑赢大市评级维持中国铁建01186HK中国中铁00390HK及中国建筑国际03311HK的买入评级以及中交建01800HK的收集评级Seethelastpagefordisclaimer8of12MorningResearchFocus中国建筑国际03311HK科技赋能进军香港废物处理市场维持买入评级买入6-18m目标价HK1420分析员黄家玮报告日期2022-12-15报告摘要我们维持1420港元的目标价对应81倍72倍64倍202220232024年EVEBITDA维持买入评级1与市场认为公司仅在香港建造道路桥梁和公共房屋的观点不同我们发现公司已扩展到废物处理设施建设和管理业务2与市场认为公司在碳中和方面业务较少的观点相反我们发现公司在其业务中已广泛使用碳中和相关技术公司以技术驱动的方式应对碳中和新要求工人工资成本持续上涨以及施工现场安全绩效不理想等日益严峻的挑战公司将在市场整合中脱颖而出成为建筑20时代的少数赢家之一催化剂11月国内一系列房地产供给侧宽松政策出台强烈提振市场情绪风险1政府基础设施支出可能低于预期2可能超预期的通胀或导致政策收紧3世界各地的疫情可能会出现波动行业报告银行行业预计多重正面因素支撑估值改善跑赢大市评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员曹柱报告日期2022-12-15报告摘要相关政策放松房地产风险暴露以及疫情形势是近年香港上市内地银行低估值的主要因素然而地产形势以及疫情形势正在好转首先一系列房地产市场支持政策不断出台中国政府最近在贷款债券融资权益融资方面出台相关支持政策拓宽房地产企业的融资渠道预计将有效化解房地产风险其次疫情政策不断优化预计将刺激需求并推动经济复苏在相关政策放松的背景下我们预计中国经济将企稳并复苏估值触底当前香港上市内地银行的加权平均市净率仅为050倍左右内地银行业的估值隐含不良率达21预计充分消化了可能对估值不利的因素包括2023年第一季度的贷款重定价预期业绩好转我们预计2022年第三季度营业收入增速将是最低点2023年第二季度起将开始上行我们维持银行行业2023年跑赢大市投资评级我们预计上述三个正面因素将支撑香港上市内地银行估值的改善我们挑选最受益于房地产政策放松的内地银行以及业绩表现较好的内地银行作为我们的优先推荐我们推荐招商银行03968HK邮储银行01658HK同时我们亦推荐中银香港02388HK汇丰控股00005HK其受益于美联储持续加息2023年盈利增速预计维持较好中国铁塔00788HK新服务框架协议好于市场预期收集评级收集6-18m目标价HK102分析员余劲同报告日期2022-12-15报告摘要我们将目标价从092港元上调至102港元并维持公司收集的投资评级我们预测2022-2024财年的每股盈利为人民币005000550062元由于好于预期的服务框架协议我们上调目标价同时维持收集的投资评级中国铁塔与电信运营商的新服务框架协议好于市场预期根据新协议现有订单的基准价格将给予24的折扣而新订单的基准价格共享折扣率则相对于旧的协议普遍上调24个百分点由于对现有订单的折扣和新订单共享折扣率上升塔类业务的收入将受到负面影响但随着5G网络的持续扩张我们预计2023年塔类业务将基本稳定Seethelastpagefordisclaimer9of12MorningResearchFocus我们预计两翼业务的增速有望超出市场预期依靠广泛的站址资源和强大的能力我们预计公司的铁塔视联业务和站址租赁业务将进一步扩展到更多客户和更深层次此外智联业务将继续从单纯提供站址资源向提供综合信息服务转变单站价值将不断提升凭借其不断拓展的网点资源和巨大的市场需求我们预计能源业务仍将保持强劲增长催化剂派息率的上升两翼业务增速快于市场预期风险提示两翼业务增速慢于预期5G建设慢于预期美联储和市场的3点核心分歧宏观组周浩孙英超报告日期2022-12-15报告摘要偏鹰的议息决议背后市场需要关注的是美联储最新经济预测的变化以及背后的核心逻辑同时调高失业率和核心通胀率的预测是12月份经济预测的核心变化这种看似不合逻辑的预测背后是美联储对于薪资增速的担忧与此同时美联储调降了2023年的经济增速但不认为经济会陷入衰退这也支撑其继续加息至5以上的基本立场总体而言美联储的经济预测是自洽的但也因此被市场诟病市场认为CPI已经明显减速因此美联储调高通胀预期并不合理同时薪资增速也可能因为劳动力市场降温而出现放缓更加重要的是市场认为经济在失业率上升如此迅速的情况下大概率会陷入衰退这几点形成了市场与美联储的核心分歧美联储的经济预测在每个季度底作出因此下一次的预测更新会在明年的3月份从这个角度而言市场和美联储都会根据最新的经济数据来调整预测但如果薪资增速不出现明显的松动美联储大概率会坚持自己的整体预测并以此作为货币政策决议的基础Seethelastpagefordisclaimer10of12MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Computer计算机danieltaogtjascomhk8675523976885EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer11of12MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKGREENTOWNCHINA03900HKFOSUNINTL00656HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKASYMCHEM-HSHARES06821HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKSENSETIME-W00020HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2022GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer12of12