据中国国家统计局的数据显示，2022年1-11月全国固定资产投资额为520,043亿元(人民币,下同)，同比增5.3%，较预期低0.3个百分点。
　　我们认为数据有几点值得讨论。首先，1-11月民间固定资产投资增速为1.1%，略低于预期，主要受到11月国内部分地区疫情反复的影响。然而，随着12月封控措施的优化调整，我们预计12月的投资增速将有所回升，但仍应略低于原预期的3%，我们调低2022年民间固定资产投资增速预测至1.5%。第二，1-11月整体基建投资增速为8.9%，较1-10月的8.7%增速提高0.2个百分点，其中水利、环境和公共设施管理业投资增速为11.6%，交通运输、仓储和邮政业投资增速为7.8%，均符合预期。第三，1-11月房地产开发投资增速为-9.8%，较预期低0.6个百分点。虽然11月出台多项支持房地产企业的有力措施，但我们认为房地产企业将以减债及加强现金流管理为主而减少投资，预计2022年全年房地产开发的投资增速将同比跌5%至10%。
　　根据中国人民银行数据，11月社会融资规模增量为1.99万亿元，低于市场预期的2.1万亿元。此外，根据中国工程机械工业协会数据，11月纳入统计的26家挖掘机制造企业共销售各类挖掘机23,680台，同比增15.8%，增速较10月的8.1%进一步加快。12月6日的中央政治局会议要求大力提振市场信心，突出做好稳增长、稳就业、稳物价工作，2023年要继续实施积极财政政策和稳健货币政策。积极的财政政策要加力提效，稳健的货币政策要精准有力。要着力扩大国内需求，充分发挥消费的基础作用和投资的关键作用。此外，证监会副主席李超12月8日在首届长三角REITs论坛暨中国REITs论坛2022年会上表示，将进一步扩大REITs试点范围，尽快覆盖到新能源、水利、新基建等基础设施领域，并加快打造REITs市场的保障性租赁住房板块。
　　我们认为上述举措对建筑工程行业的影响十分积极，市场并未充分认识到持有大量基建投资的建筑工程央企的隐藏价值。重申行业“跑赢大市”评级，维持中国铁建(01186 HK)、中国中铁(00390 HK)及中国建筑国际(03311 HK)的“买入”评级，以及中交建(01800HK)的“收集”评级。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquityFlashTableBasicInfoNoteConstructionEngineeringSectorGaryWong黄家玮快讯建筑工程行业85225092616garywonggtjascomhk15December2022TableMainInfoJan-Nov2022ChinaFAIIncreased53YoY03pptsLowerThanExpectation快2022年1-11月全国固定资产投资同比增53较预期低03个百分点讯AccordingtotheNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaJan-Nov2022ChinaFAIamountedtoFlashNoteRMB520043billionup53YoY03pptslowerthanexpectationThereareseveralpointsworthdiscussingFirstJan-NovprivateFAIgrowthratewas11slightlylowerthanexpectationthiswasduetoresurgencesinlocalCovid-19epidemiccasesinsomeregionsinChinainNovemberHoweverwiththeliftingoflockdownmeasuresinDecember2022weexpectinvestmentgrowthtopickupinDecemberbutwillstillbelowerthantheoriginalestimateof3Welowerthe2022forecastforprivateFAIgrowthto15SecondJan-Novoverallinfrastructureinvestmentgrowthwas8902pptshigherthanthe87investmentgrowthinJan-Octofwhichirrigationenvironmentandpublicfacilitiesmanagementinvestmentgrowthratewas116whiletransportstorageandpost-investmentgrowthratewas78bothwereinlinewithexpectationThirdJan-Novpropertydevelopmentinvestmentgrowthratewas-9806pptsbelowexpectationAlthoughanumberofpowerfulmeasurestosupportrealestate证companieswereintroducedinNovemberwethinkthatrealestatecompanieswillfocusonreducingdebtand券strengtheningcashflowmanagementandreduceinvestmentandweexpectthegrowthrateofproperty研developmentinvestmentin2022todropYoYby5-10究AccordingtostatisticsfromthePeoplesBankofChinatheincreaseinsocialfinancinginNovemberreachedResearchReport报RMB199trillionlowerthanthemarketexpectationofRMB21trillionInadditionaccordingtostatisticsfromthe告ChinaConstructionMachineryAssociationthe26excavatormanufacturersincludedinthestatisticsinNovemberEquitysoldatotalof23680excavatorsofvarioustypesanincreaseof158YoYfurtheracceleratedfromthe81growthinOctoberThePoliticalBureauoftheCentralCommitteemeetingonDecember6calledforavigorousboostinmarketconfidencehighlightingtheworkofstabilizinggrowthemploymentandpricesandthe证券研究报告governmentmustcontinuetoimplementaproactivefiscalpolicyandastablemonetarypolicyin2023FiscalpolicyneedstobereinforcedandwithimprovedefficiencywhilestablemonetarypolicyneedstobepreciseandpowerfulEffortsshouldbemadetoexpanddomesticdemandandgivefullplaytothebasicTroleofconsumptionandthekeyroleofinvestmentInadditionMrLiChaovicechairmanoftheChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionstatedatthefirstYangtzeRiverDeltaREITsForumandChinaREITsForuma2022AnnualMeetingonDecember8thatthescopeofREITspilotswillbefurtherexpandedtocovernewenergyb建waterconservancynewinfrastructureandotherinfrastructurefieldsassoonaspossibleandtoacceleratethe筑linclusionoftheaffordablerentalhousingsectorintheREITsmarket工e程Wethinkthattheabovemeasureshavehadaverypositiveimpactontheconstructionengineeringindustryand行themarketdoesnotfullyrealizethehiddenvalueofCentralSOEconstructionengineeringcompanies业LthatholdalargeamountofinfrastructureinvestmentreiterateOutperformratingforthesectoreMaintainBuyratingforChinaRailwayConstruction01186HKChinaRailwayGroup00390HKandChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKandAccumulateratingforChinaCommunicationsfConstructionCompany01800HKtConstructionSectorEngineeringMarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3SeethelastpagTable1SummaryableFAIofSourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaofStatisticsofBureauSourceNationalandYoYFigure1SourceIrrigationEnvironmentPublicManagementFacilitiesTransportStorageandPostInvestmentInfrastructureDevelopmentPropertyTertiaryIndustryIndustrySecondaryIndustryPrimaryFAIChinaCategories-40-30-20-101020304050e0foHK业我们认为上述举措对建筑工程行业的影响十分积极扩大投资的关键作用和稳健货币政策12数据根据中国人民银行数据产企业将以减债及加强现金流管理为主而减少投资预计1分点其中水利环境和公共设施管理业投资增速为低复的影响然而随着我们认为数据有几点值得讨论首先个百分点据中国国家统计局的数据显示rp-disclaimerPagePagedisclaimer11roperty2022NationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaofStatisticsofBureauNationalPropertyFAIProperty月2019-12跑赢大市的月房地产开发投资增速为REITs62020-0311收集日的中央政治局会议要求大力提振市场信心突出做好稳增长稳就业稳物价工作年民间固定资产投资增速预测至2020-05月纳入统计的d试点范围尽快覆盖到新能源水利新基建等基础设施领域并加快打造evelopmentFAIg评级评级维持中国铁建2020-07rowthofrowth2020-09积极的财政政策要加力提效稳健的货币政策要精准有力要着力扩大国内需求充分发挥消费的基础作用和此外证监会副主席李超2020-11ManufacturingFAIManufacturing12s2021-022611itatisticstatisticsnfrastructure月封控措施的2021-04家挖掘机制造企业共销售各类挖掘机月社会融资规模增量为-2021-069820222021-0801186HK较预期低Jan2021-10年1-P优化调整111152021-12--11mN月民间固定资产投资增速为122022-03中国中铁InfrastructureFAIInfrastructureanufacturingo月全国固定资产投资额为v月062022-05第二我们预计2081992022-07个百分点虽然日在首届长三角市场并未充222022-0911600390HK1万亿元低于市场预期的-2022112022-11交通运输仓储和邮政业投资增速为月整体基建投资增速为12-40-30-20-10SourceNationalSourceNationalFAIYoY2Figure年全年房地产开发的投资增速将同比跌1020304050分023680月的投资增速将有所回升但仍应略低于原预期的认识及中国建筑国际InvestmentRMB000millionInvestment11REITs2019-12到520043月出台多项支持房地产企业的有力措施但我们认为房地11台同比增持有大量基建投资的建筑工程央企的隐藏价值重申行2020-03ManagementFacilitiesPublicEnvironmentIrrigationPostandStorageTransportWaterandGasHeatofElectricitySupplyandProduction论坛暨中国TablePageHeader2020-05略低于预期主要受到BureauofStatisticsofChinaofStatisticsofBureau亿元2020-07g21otofrowth03311HK891582020-09人民币万亿元REITs2020-11REITs较2021-02增速较下同s此外根据中国工程机械工业协会论坛1市场的保障性租赁住房板块的202351312021-04inubsectors-200432386340822662041301710osrcinniernSectorEngineeringConstruction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