研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus19December2022TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus新闻焦点今NewsFocus行业和公司焦点晨IndustryandCompanyFocus焦ResearchGamingMacaosSixGamingOperatorsWereEachGrantedNew10-yearGamingConcessionsInLine点withMarketExpectationsMorning博彩澳门六家博彩运营商获批新的10年期博彩经营批给合同符合市场预期LatestReports最新报告摘要CompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变SectorReport2023-AMilestonein证ElectronicsAppleInnovationTheSupplyChain--Outperform--NSector告toProfoundlyBenefit券行业报告苹果创新大年来临在即供应研电子行业报--跑赢大市--否链深度受益究Nonferrous究SectorReportChinaDemandWillBe--Neutral--NMetalsSectortheMainDriverofAluminumPrice报研行业报告中国需求将是铝价的主要驱动有色金属行业--中性--否告力券EquityResearchReportDemandforDiversificationWillDriveFutu证HoldingsOverseasInvestmentFutuExpectedFUTUUSUS8220--Buy--NLtdtoRecordStrongEarningsInitiateWithBuy多元化需求带动海外投资增长富途有望富途控股FUTUUS实现盈利超预期首予买入US8220--Buy--否SectorReportTextilesApparelTextilesSector2023OutlookTheDawnofApparel--Neutral--NRecoveryHasComeOutoftheSectorDarknessOutperform行业报告纺织服装行业2023年展望纺织服装行业走出至暗时刻复苏曙光已现跑赢大--中性--否市SectorReportBi-WeeklyWrapPropertyDevelopersAcceleratedMoney--Outperform--NSectorRaisingAmidPolicyTailwind行业报告双周报政策利好下地产开发房地产行业--跑赢大市--否商加速筹措资金Non-BankSectorReportAssetPerformanceFinanceWillBetheKeyDriverin2023--OutperformNSectorOutperform行业报告资产端表现将是2023年的主非银金融行业--跑赢大市否要驱动力跑赢大市TypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题宏观2023年外汇市场展望美元的黄昏2022年12月16日MacroBeijingDeliveredthePositiveTones17December2022Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of12MorningResearchFocusAppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900012000270002500010000230008000210001900060001700015000400013000200011000Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover1945067042136026763807恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE663475066156941409398国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE4149220313486300033312008科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEwasrecordedasatDec15PleasesubscribeGTJAIResearchandanalystsWechatsubscriptionaccount国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究PleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJNewsFocus新闻焦点TableNewsFocusMarketNews市场新闻TheCentralEconomicWorkConferenceheldinBeijingfromDecember15to16willfocusonstabilizinggrowthemploymentandpricesandkeeptheeconomyoperatingwithinanappropriaterange中央经济工作会议12月15日至16日在北京举行会议要点包括要着力稳增长稳就业稳物价保持经济运行在合理区间TheBankofEnglanddulyraiseditspolicyrateby50basispointsfrom3to35inDecember2022theSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of12MorningResearchFocusconsecutiveincrease英国央行2022年12月如期加息50个基点将政策利率从3提高至35为连续第九次加息IndustryandCompanyFocusGamingMacaosSixGamingOperatorsWereEachGrantedNew10-yearGamingConcessionsInLinewithMarketExpectationsAnalystNoahHudsonWhathappenedMacaossixincumbentgamingoperatorswereeachgrantednew10-yeargamingconcessionson16Decemberin-linewithmarketexpectationsOn16DecemberMacaosChiefExecutivesignedwitheachofthesixawardeesaConcessionAgreementonOperatingGamesofLuckinCasinosintheMacaoSpecialAdministrativeRegionThecontractswillcomeintoeffecton1January2023withavalidityof10yearsTheconcessionsweregrantedtoMGMGrandParadiseSAGalaxyCasinoSAVenetianMacauSAMelcoResortsMacauSAWynnResortsMacauSAandSJMResortsSACommentsandViewsWethinkthisnewswasfullyexpectedbythemarketandalreadypricedintoMacaogamingstocksespeciallysinceMacaossixgamingincumbentshadalreadybeengrantedprovisionalgamingconcessionson26NovemberInvestmentsuggestionDespitetherecentsurgeinMacaogamingsharepriceswethinkthatMacaogamingsectorinvestorsentimentisstillunderpressurefromconcernsofthecomingwintercoldandfluseasoninChinaHoweverweexpectthatby2Q2023theseconcernswillpassandwillbefollowedbyanupsurgeininvestorconfidenceintheMacaogamingsectorWethinkMacaossixgamingoperatorswillallbenefitfromtheimprovementininvestorsentimentGalaxyEntertainmentGroup00027HKMelcoResortsEntertainmentMLCOUSMGMChina02282HKSandsChina01928HKWynnMacau01128HKandSJMHoldings00880HKSeethelastpagefordisclaimer3of12MorningResearchFocusTableTableFocusLatestLatestReportsSectorReportElectronicsSector2023-AMilestoneinAppleInnovationTheSupplyChaintoProfoundlyBenefitRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystJackLiuReportDate2022-12-16SummaryApplesphenomenalmixed-realityMRproductisonthehorizonpropellinganewinnovationcycleforconsumerelectronicsOvermanyyearsofresearchanddevelopmentApplehasaccumulatedrichexperienceindevelopingitsMRecosystemincludinginhardwaresoftwareandcontenttechnologyBeingdifferentfromaugmentedrealityARvirtualrealityVRproductsavailableonthemarketApplesupcomingMRproductwillbeabletodigitallyconvertthephysicalworldinrealtimeandenablehigh-levelinteractionwiththevirtualworldAsforhardwarethisMRproductwillbeindustry-leadingintermsofdisplaysystemopticalsystemandcomputationsystemsupportedbyadvancedchipsetcWebelievethatthelaunchofApplesMRproductwillacceleratepenetrationofARVRMRglassesintothemarketandinnovationpaceofnewhardwarebringingabrandnewgrowthlogictothedemandsideofconsumerelectronicsthroughoutthenextdecade3-nanometertechnologywillbeagamechangerItisexpectedthatseveralnewAppleproductsin2023willbeequippedwithchipsmanufacturedunderTSMCslatest3nmtechnologyincludingMRglassesAppleWatchS9MacbookM3chipandiPhone15A17chipInparticularthenext-geniPhonemightalsobeequippedwithnewfeaturessuchasedgedisplayanewindustrialdesignnewopticalconfigurationetcAccordingtoTSMC3nmtechnologywillofferupto70logicdensityincreasecomparedtothatofpreviousgenerationtechnologyHenceremarkablepowerconsumptionefficiencyandperformanceimprovementinApplesnext-genflagshipproductswillfurtherstrengthenitsleadingpositioninmid-tohigh-endconsumerelectronicsWearebullishoncompaniesthatareactivelyincreasingtheirpresenceinApplessupplychainandpioneersinMRtechnologyAsApplesproductstrengthfurtherexpandsmarket-leadingcompaniesinApplessupplychainwillbenefitincludingLuxsharePrecision002475SZDongshanPrecision002384SZAvaryHolding002938SZandUSI601231SHWerecommendavitalhigh-endhandsetlensandvehiclelenssupplier-SunnyOptical02382HKRiskUncertaintiesrelatedtoSino-UStensionsvolatilityinexchangeratesSectorReportNonferrousMetalsSectorChinaDemandWillBetheMainDriverofAluminumPriceRatingNeutral6-18mTPnaAnalystKevinGuoReportDate2022-12-16SummaryWeexpectthataluminumpricewillmainlybedrivenbyChinademandgrowthin2023WeareoptimisticaboutChinademandgrowthin2023assupportivepoliciesforthepropertyindustrythenewenergyvehicleindustryandthesolarindustrywillleadtostrongdemandgrowthWeexpectaluminumpricetofluctuatebetweenUS2000t-US3000tandtheannualaveragepricetobebetweenUS2200t-US2650tWebelievethatsupplyshortagesfromwesterncountriestotheglobalaluminummarkethasbeenmitigatedAbout16milliontonsofprimaryaluminumproductioncapacityinEuropeandtheUShasceasedduetohighenergypriceThisaluminumproductioncapacityisnotexpectedtoresumeproductionin2023WealsobelievethattheremainingprimaryaluminumproductioncapacityinEuropewillbemaintainedundernewconditionsWeforecastChinasaluminumconsumptiondemandtogrow3-5in2023Thepropertyindustryisthelargestconsumerofaluminumandweforecastconsumptiondemandfromthepropertyindustrytoincreaseabout2-4in2023Weforecastthenewenergyvehicleindustrytomaintainfastgrowthandaluminumconsumedbythetransportsectortoincrease10-15in2023WeforecastinstalledsolarcellsinChinatomaintainfastgrowthin2023andaluminumconsumptionfromthesolarindustrytoincreasebymorethan30in2023WerecommendChinaHongqiao01378HKNetprofitofChinaHongqiaoishighlysensitivetothefluctuationsinSeethelastpagefordisclaimer4of12MorningResearchFocusaluminumpriceareboundinaluminumpricewilldriveuptheChinaHongqiaosstockpriceFutuHoldingsLtdFUTUUSDemandforDiversificationWillDriveOverseasInvestmentFutuExpectedtoRecordStrongEarningsInitiateWithBuyRatingBuy6-18mTPUS8220AnalystFrancoLiReportDate2022-12-16SummaryIncreasingdemandfordiversificationwilldrivedemandforoverseasinvestmenttoincreasebeyondmarketexpectationGlobalwealthgrewrapidlyat77CAGRbetween2016and2021AspeoplebecomewealthierontheonehandtheirdemandforwealthmanagementproductsandserviceswillbemorediverseontheotherhandtheywillpaymoreattentiontothepreservationoftheirwealthandbecomemoreriskaverseThiswillleadtoinvestorsincreasingtheirallocationofoverseasassetstodiversifytheirinvestmentsandrisksWeexpectoverseasinvestmenttoincreasebeyondmarketexpectationdrivenbygrowingglobalwealthandincreasingdemandforgeographicaldiversificationFutuiswellpositionedtobenefitfromstrongdemandforoverseasinvestmentdiversificationandtoachieverobustclientassetgrowthdrivingearningstoexceedmarketexpectationThisissupportedbyFutus151licenseswhichenableFututoprovidebroadglobalaccesstooverseasmarkets2largeglobalclientbaseand3technology-driventradingplatformsInitiatewithBuyratingwithaTPofUS8220WeexpectdemandforoverseasinvestmentproductstoremainstronginthelongtermandFutuwillrecordearningsbeyondmarketexpectationdrivenbytheCompanysaccesstoabroadrangeofoverseasmarketsandadvancedtechnology-driventradingplatformsWeassigna2023EPERof250xhigherthanthepeersweightedaveragePERandinitiateinvestmentratingofBuySectorReportTextilesApparelSectorTextilesApparelSector2023OutlookTheDawnofRecoveryHasComeOutoftheDarknessOutperformRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystHansenTangReportDate2022-12-16SummarySportswearWeexpectsportswearretailsalesinChinatorecoveronoptimizedanti-epidemiccontrolmeasuresInventoryanddiscountlevelsinthesportswearsegmentarestillabovenormallevelssincepoorretailenvironmenthasdelayedde-stockingin4Q2022Weexpectsegmentsalesgrowthtorecoverwithchannelinventoryreturningtonormalin2Q2023asCovid-19anti-epidemiccontrolpoliciesarerefinedbenefitinggradualrecoveryofofflineconsumertrafficTextilemanufacturingShort-termordersunderpressurebutwaitingforturningpointindownstreamdestockingHighinflationoverseashasmarginallyimprovedbutchannelinventoryremainshighWeexpectthatitwilltake1-2quarterstoclearexcessinventoryConsideringthechanneldestockingcycleweexpectapparelinventoryoverseastoreturntonormalin2Q2023Weexpectordervolumeandcapacityutilizationofdomestictextilemanufacturingcompaniestorecoverin2Q2023WemaintainOutperformratingforthetextilesandapparelsectorWerecommendchoosingsportswearbrandswithhealthyinventoryandthoseinvestmentopportunitiesinleadingmanufacturerswithlowvaluations1WithregardstoapparelbrandsintheshorttermwerecommendBosideng03998HKthedownjacketleaderinChinawhichhasrelativelylowinventorypressureduringthepeakseasonInthelongtermweexpectsportswearbrandstocontinuetobenefitfromrisinghealthawarenessofconsumersandgradualrecoveryofofflineconsumptionenvironmentWerecommendLiNing02331HKAntaSports02020HKandXtep01368HK2WithregardstotextilemanufacturingInthemediumtolongtermwearebullishonmanufacturingleaderswithoutstandingcompetitiveadvantagesassomeleadingmanufacturingcompaniespriceperformanceratioincreasedafterthestockpricecorrectionWerecommendShenzhouInternational02313HKasthecompanyacoresupplierofnumeroussportswearbrandsmaybenefitfromsupplychainrestructuringbybrandsRisks1Globalpandemicresurgence2higher-than-expectedglobalinflation3slower-than-expecteddestockingpaceand4increaseinrawmaterialpricesSeethelastpagefordisclaimer5of12MorningResearchFocusSectorReportPropertySectorBi-WeeklyWrapDevelopersAcceleratedMoneyRaisingAmidPolicyTailwindRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystChunliZhanReportDate2022-12-16SummaryRidingonthepolicytailwinddevelopersacceleratedtheprocesstoresolvingitsliquidityissuesinthepasttwoweeksAfteraseriesoffinancialsupportivepoliciesannouncedattheendofNov2022developersrespondedpromptlytofurtheralleviateliquiditypressureWehaveobservedthreemainmeasuresforliquidityeasingfromtherecentactivitiesofdevelopersincluding1shareplacement2debtrestructureplanand3abundantcreditlinesupportfromSOEbanksSunachasexploredanewwaytoresolveitsdebtdilemmaOn9Dec2022SunacChina01918HKSunacunveiledprogressindebtrestructuringwhichcouldbodewellforotherhighlyleveragedprivatedevelopersAccordingtotherestructuringplanforitsoff-shoredebtsSunacwillswapUS3-4bnindebtforordinarysharesorequity-linkedinstrumentsWebelievetheconversionofdebtintoequitywillbecomeaneffectivewayforprivatedeveloperstothoroughlyresolveliquidityriskCommercialC-REITspilottokickoffOn8Dec2022MrLiChaotheVicePresidentofCSRCsaidthatChinawillexpandthepilotschemeforREITsintomorefieldsnotonlyinthelong-termrentalmarketbutalsocommercialrealestatesectorWebelievethisisapositivesignforfurthereasingonthepropertysectorbythegovernmentPropertydeveloperscanrevitalizethestockassetsfromthepotentialpilotofcommercialC-REITsWethinkthekeyfocusforthesectoriswhenthephysicalmarketwillreallyrecoverTheturnaroundinmarketexpectationdependsonhowandtowhatextentlooseningofdemand-sidepolicywilldeepenOurcurrentinvestmentratingonthesectorisOutperformAmongqualitynameswerecommendLongfor00960HKGemdale600383SHandVanke-H02202HKWebelieveCCCGRealEstate000736SZandCDInternational01908HKarebeneficiariessincesmallerSOEsmayseemorestrengthduetofinancialeasingRisks1Reopeningofup-frontfinancingincreasingtheindustrysleverage2deterioratinghome-buyingdemandSectorReportNon-BankFinanceSectorAssetPerformanceWillBetheKeyDriverin2023OutperformRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystFrancoLiReportDate2022-12-16SummaryWeexpectliabilityperformancetobeunderpressurein2023Asinclusiveinsuranceplanscontinuestobepromotedweexpectdemandforcommerciallifeinsurancetobeunderpressurein2023duetothesubstitutioneffectWeexpectsupplytofaceheadwindsfrombothchannelandproductsidesIntermsofchannelsweexpectafurtherdeclineinagencyworkforceasagentswillexitduetotightenedregulationanddecreasingincomeIntermsofproductsweexpectthatsalesofwholelifeproductswithincreasingdeathbenefitstobeunsustainableduetopotentialfeedeficitsandinterestratedeficitsinthefutureNBVgrowthin1Q23islikelytobedrivenbystrongjump-startcampaignsbuttobeunstainablelaterashighmarketingexpensestrategieswilldragdownnetprofitAssetperformanceisexpectedtobethemaindriverofinsurancestocksperformancein2023IFRS9isexpectedtobeimplementedin2023leadingtomorevolatilenetincomethanthatunderthecurrentIAS39Thusweexpectinsurancecompaniestoincreasetheirallocationofhigh-dividendstockstostabilizetheirincomestatementsWeexpecttheeconomytograduallyrecoverthankstoloosenedCovidpolicydrivingupequitymarketsandbenefitingassetperformanceofinsurancecompaniesin2023UpgradeindustryratingtoOutperformWeexpectinsurancecompanyfundamentalstobesluggishin2023Howevergiventhatthevaluationmultiplesofinsurancestocksareathistoriclowlevelsweexpectthatpotentialstrongjump-startcampaignsandrecoveringcapitalmarketswillcreateinvestmentopportunityUpgradeindustryratingtoOutperformwerecommendChinaLifeInsurance02628HKwhoismoreinvestment-sensitivethanitspeersandPingAnInsurance02318HKwhichwillbenefitfromrecoveringstocksinthepropertysectorthankstosupportiverealestatepoliciesSeethelastpagefordisclaimer6of12MorningResearchFocusBeijingDeliveredthePositiveTonesAnalystHaoZhouBillySunReportDate2022-12-17SummaryThemostimportanttargetforthenextyearistoensuresolideconomicperformanceasapolicystatementreleasedbytheChinesegovernmentstatedanoverallrecoveryandimprovementisexpectedinthecountryseconomicperformanceinthenextyearTorevivetheeconomyagainstthebackdropofpossiblerecessioninthedevelopedeconomydomesticconsumptionwillplayakeyroleforChinainthecomingyearForglobalinvestorsthemostencouragingsignisthatChinesepolicymakershavemadeaclearstatementonequaltreatmentofprivateenterprisesandSOEsInthemeantimeitwasalsomentionedinthemeetingthatwiththenormalizationofregulationframeworkaplatformeconomywillbeencouragedtocreatemorejobsleadingeconomicdevelopmentandwillengageglobalcompetitionChinasgradualwithdrawalofCovid-relatedrestrictionsalsomeansthattheeconomywillbenormalizinginthenextfewmonthswhichwillremoveoneofthebiggestuncertaintiesinthelongtermOverthecomingyearChinasgrowthoutlookhasbeenbolsteredbytherecentpolicystatementwhichisalsoimportantforthestrugglingglobaleconomyMeanwhilethemedium-termprospectsarealsoimprovingthankstopro-growthpolicytonesdeliveredbythenewtopleadershipChineseTranslation中文翻译行业和公司焦点TableFocuschi博彩澳门六家博彩运营商获批新的10年期博彩经营批给合同符合市场预期AnalystNoahHudson事件描述澳门现有的六家博彩运营商分别于12月16日获批新的10年期博彩经营批给合同符合市场预期12月16日澳门行政长官分别同六间获判给的公司代表签署了澳门特别行政区娱乐场幸运博彩经营批给合同六间公司的批给期限均为十年合同自2023年1月1日起生效美高梅金殿超濠股份有限公司银河娱乐场股份有限公司威尼斯人澳门股份有限公司新濠博亚澳门股份有限公司永利渡假村澳门股份有限公司以及澳娱综合度假股份有限公司获得娱乐场幸运博彩经营批给的判给观点评论我们认为这一消息完全符合市场预期澳门博彩股在信息公布之前已经反映了此信息的预期特别是因为澳门六家博彩商已于11月26日获得临时博彩经营批给合同投资建议尽管近期澳门博彩股价飙升但在对中国即将到来的冬季感冒和流感季节的担忧之下我们认为澳门博彩业投资者情绪仍然受压然而我们预计到2023年第二季度这些担忧将会过去而投资者对澳门博彩业的信心就会激增我们认为澳门的六家博彩运营商都将受益于投资者情绪的改善包括银河娱乐00027HK新濠博亚MLCOUS美高梅中国02282HK金沙中国01928HK永利澳门01128HK及澳博控股00880HKSeethelastpagefordisclaimer7of12MorningResearchFocusTableLatestchi最新报告行业报告电子行业苹果创新大年来临在即供应链深度受益评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员柳晨报告日期2022-12-16报告摘要苹果的现象级混合现实产品蓄势待发推动新一轮消费电子创新周期历经多年打磨苹果在其混合现实MR生态的硬件软件和内容上已经累积了深厚的技术储备区别于市面现有ARVR产品该MR产品能够将现实世界实时数字化并与虚拟世界实现良好交互硬件层面该MR产品将能够从显示系统光学系统到先进芯片支撑的运算系统等多个方面领先于市面竞品我们相信苹果MR产品的落地将会加速ARVRMR眼镜的渗透和新硬件的创新节奏给下一个十年的消费电子需求端带来全新的增长逻辑3纳米制程工艺或将颠覆业界2023年的数个苹果新品将搭载采用台积电最新3纳米制程工艺的芯片包括MR眼镜苹果手表S9苹果笔记本M3芯片以及iPhone15A17芯片其中下一代的iPhone还将搭载边缘显示全新的工业设计和光学方案等新特性据台积电资料显示3纳米制程工艺相比上一代制程工艺将带来最高70的逻辑密度提升因此苹果的下一代旗舰产品在功耗和性能上的显著提升将进一步巩固其在中高端消费电子领域的领先地位我们推荐那些在苹果供应链中份额持续提升以及在混合现实产品上取得先发优势的公司随着苹果的产品力优势进一步扩大其供应链中的龙头企业将迎来利好包括立讯精密002475SZ东山精密002384SZ鹏鼎控股002938SZ环旭电子601231SH我们也推荐高端手机和车载镜头的重要供应商舜宇光学02382HK风险中美局势的不确定性汇率波动行业报告有色金属行业中国需求将是铝价的主要驱动力评级中性6-18m目标价na分析员郭勇报告日期2022-12-16报告摘要我们预计2023年铝价将主要由中国的需求增长驱动由于对房地产市场新能源汽车行业和太阳能产业的支持政策将带来强劲的需求增长我们对2023年中国的需求增长乐观我们预计铝价将在2000美元吨-3000美元吨之间波动年度均价在2200美元吨-2650美元吨之间我们认为西方国家供应短缺对全球铝市场的影响已经大幅减轻由于高能源价格欧洲和美国已经有160万吨的原铝产能被关停这些铝产能预计在2023年不会复产我们也认为欧洲剩余的原铝产能在新的条件下将会维持我们预计2023年中国铝的消费需求将增长3-5房地产市场是最大的铝消费者我们预计2023年房地产市场的消费需求将增长2-4左右我们预计新能源汽车行业在2023年将保持快速增长交通行业的铝消费则将增长10-15我们预计中国的光伏电池新增装机在2023年保持快速增长2023年光伏行业对铝的消费增长将超过30我们推荐中国宏桥01378HK中国宏桥的净利润对铝价波动的弹性很高铝价的反弹将会推动公司股价Seethelastpagefordisclaimer8of12MorningResearchFocus富途控股FUTUUS多元化需求带动海外投资增长富途有望实现盈利超预期首予买入评级买入6-18m目标价US8220分析员李炜报告日期2022-12-16报告摘要多元化需求的增长将推动海外投资需求的超预期增长2016年至2021年全球财富以77的复合年增长率快速增长随着人们变得更加富裕一方面他们对财富管理和服务的需求变得更加多元化另一方面他们会更加注重财富的保值并且变得更加风险厌恶这将导致投资者增加海外资产的配置以分散投资和风险受到全球财富增长以及地域分散化需求的推动我们预计海外投资增长将超预期富途有望受益于强劲的海外分散化投资需求并实现强劲的客户资产增长推动盈利超预期得益于151张牌照使富途能提供广泛的全球市场准入2庞大的全球客户群3技术驱动的交易平台首次给予买入评级目标价8220美元我们预计对海外投资产品的需求将长期保持强劲而富途能提供多市场选择以及先进的科技化交易平台有望实现盈利的超预期我们给予公司250倍2023年市盈率高于同业加权平均市盈率并首予买入的投资评级行业报告纺织服装行业纺织服装行业2023年展望走出至暗时刻复苏曙光已现跑赢大市评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员汤瀚森报告日期2022-12-16报告摘要运动服饰我们预计中国运动服饰零售销售在防疫政策优化下将逐步恢复由于2022年第四季度疲弱零售环境延缓了去库存进程当前运动鞋服行业库存和折扣仍高于正常水平我们预计随着防疫政策优化利好线下客流回暖行业销售增速将于2023年第二季度渠道库存正常化之后恢复纺织制造短期订单承压静待下游去库存拐点海外高通胀问题边际有所改善但渠道库存仍维持高位我们预计仍需1-2个季度清理过剩库存考虑到渠道去库存周期我们预计海外服装库存将在2023年第二季度恢复正常届时国内纺织制造企业的订单量及产能利用率有望双回升我们维持纺织服装行业跑赢大市的评级我们推荐库存相对健康的运动服饰品牌以及低估值龙头制造商的投资机会1品牌服饰端短期看我们推荐正值销售旺季且库存压力较小的羽绒服龙头波司登03998HK长期看我们预计运动服饰品牌将继续受益于消费者健康意识提升与线下消费环境逐步回暖我们推荐李宁02331HK安踏体育02020HK和特步国际01368HK2纺织制造端从中长期看我们推荐竞争优势突出的制造商龙头部分公司股价调整后估值性价比提升我们推荐申洲国际02313HK公司作为多运动品牌核心供应商有望受益于品牌商供应链整合风险1全球疫情反复2全球通胀超预期3去库存进度不及预期4原材料涨价行业报告房地产行业双周报政策利好下地产开发商加速筹措资金评级跑贏大市6-18m目标价na分析员詹春立报告日期2022-12-16报告摘要乘利好政策东风开发商在过去两周加速解决其流动性问题在11月底出台一系列金融支持性政策之后开发商反应迅速进一步缓解其流动性压力从开发商最近的反应来看我们观察到其缓解流动性紧张的手段主要有以下三种1配股增发2债务重组以及3国有银行充足的授信支持融创为解决债务危机探寻了另一条出路2022年12月9日融创中国01918HK融创披露了其债务重组的最新情况为其他高杠杆的民营企业化解危机提供了参考根据融创的境外债重组计划公司预计将债务中的30-40亿美元转变为公Seethelastpagefordisclaimer9of12MorningResearchFocus司普通股或股权挂钩工具我们相信这种债转股的方式将成为民营企业全面化解流动性风险的一个有效方式中国商业REITs试点可能将开始2022年12月8日中国证监会副主席李超表示中国将扩大REITs试点范围在长租公寓以外也将涉及商业不动产领域我们相信这是政府进一步放松房地产市场的积极信号开发商将可以从中国商业REITs试点中盘活其存量资产我们认为市场关注的重点是何时地产销售状况出现根本性复苏市场预期的扭转决定于需求端放松政策将如何进行以及深入到何种程度我们当前对行业所持的评级是跑赢大市优质龙头中我们推荐龙湖集团00960HK金地集团600383SH和万科企业02202HK同时我们认为中交地产000736SZ以及建发国际01908HK将会受益作为较小的央国企其在当前融资宽松环境下展现更多优势风险1重新放开前融行业杠杆上行以及2购房需求加速下行行业报告非银金融行业资产端表现将是2023年的主要驱动力跑赢大市评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员李炜报告日期2022-12-16报告摘要我们预计2023年负债端将承压随着保险普惠化的持续推进我们预计2023年商业寿险需求将因替代效应而承压我们预计供应将面临来自渠道和产品方面的不利因素在渠道方面我们预计监管收紧和收入减少将导致代理人退出人力队伍将进一步缩减在产品方面由于未来可能出现费差损和利差损我们预计增额终身寿的销售将难以持续2023年一季度新业务价值增长将会受到强劲的开门红的推动但由于高费用投放策略将拖累净利润后续增长难以为继资产表现预计将成为2023年保险股表现的主要驱动力IFRS9预计将于2023年实施将导致利润波动比现行IAS39下的波动更大因此我们预计保险公司将增加对高股息股票的配置以稳定其利润表我们预计2023年经济将因防疫政策优化而逐步复苏带动股市上行利好保险公司资产端表现上调行业评级至跑赢大市我们预计2023年保险公司的基本面仍将低迷但是鉴于保险股的估值倍数处于历史低位我们预计潜在的强劲开门红和复苏的资本市场将创造投资机会上调行业评级至跑赢大市推荐投资端弹性高于同业的中国人寿02628HK和受益于政策支持下地产股复苏的中国平安02318HK2023年外汇市场展望美元的黄昏宏观组周浩孙英超报告日期2022-12-16报告摘要过去的一年中美元保持了整体强势背后的核心原因是美联储的持续加息换言之利差主导了外汇市场伴随着美联储加息渐入尾声以及衰退预期逐步增强美元指数已经从今年第四季度开始回落我们相信这一趋势会持续至明年需要指出的是由于美元利率仍将处于多年来的高位中期维度内美元汇率仍然存在支撑由于欧洲央行的加息终点会滞后于美联储欧元会受益于这一因素日本央行存在明年退出利率收益率曲线控制YCC的可能性因此日元也大概率会因为与美元的利差收窄而出现升值人民币则会受益于中国经济见底回升以及美元的整体偏弱稳中求进是人民币汇率的基调人民币兑美元汇率未来一段时间的主要交易区间是680-715以下三个风险事件是我们预测的主要风险第一美国经济衰退预期落空第二欧洲经济由于能源问题而更早陷入更深的衰退第三地缘政治风险再度升温可能导致美元的避险属性被市场青睐在附录中我们也总结了国际清算银行三年一度的外汇市场交易报告报告显示2022年全球的外汇FX日均交易总量比2019增长14至75万亿美元扭转了2016-2019年的交易量下滑的趋势外汇掉期51和即期交易30仍然是外汇交易市场的主流Seethelastpagefordisclaimer10of12MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Computer计算机danieltaogtjascomhk8675523976885EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer11of12MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKGREENTOWNCHINA03900HKSENSETIME-W00020HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKASYMCHEM-HSHARES06821HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKCNOOC00883HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2022GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer12of12