展望：东升西落，看多港股。从分子端盈利来看，中国经济逐步复苏，海外经济或步入衰退。从分母端估值来看，海外通胀和流动性缓解，推动估值修复。东升西落，全球资金或提升对港股配置权重。整体上，2023年中国经济复苏，叠加美元美债利率下行，港股弹性更大。
　　空间：双轮驱动，全球居前。基于盈利增长+估值修复+分红，在合理假设下，在2023年全球股指预期回报率排名中，恒指居前，或接近30%，估值和盈利修复是恒指预期收益率的最大来源。
　　节奏：港股牛市“三级火箭”。1）一级火箭：政策利好仍将纷至沓来，风险偏好将继续修复，现在进行中；2）二级火箭：加息周期尾声，美元、美债利率下行，新兴市场代表之一的港股估值将打开进一步修复空间，恒指或修复至2022年6月前的位置；3）三级火箭：中国经济复苏，港股业绩兑现并筑底反弹，恒指或修复至2022年1月前。
　　波折：预期延续，现实不远。可能存在的波折有强预期和弱现实的博弈，受短期疫情因素延缓经济底和业绩底出现时点；2023年Q1美股盈利下修或现衰退交易，美联储态度反复等风险因素仍会造成火箭推力阶段性不足。因此，行情可能反复，需要注意节奏
　　机会：逆境反转，内外兼顾。1）震荡期回调有限，逢低加仓。在政策底与业绩底的中间时期，港股往往经历震荡期，但整体不会跌破前低。2）“内外需蹊跷板效应”——地产链逆境反转策略。地产供给端“三箭齐发”，期待未来需求端政策。建议关注地产、金融、材料、汽车及零部件等行业。3）国内消费复苏两步走——消费链逆境反转策略。第一阶段，国内疫情防控政策继续优化，消费场景复苏。第二阶段，在疫情受控，经济复苏后，居民收入上升，消费意愿抬升。建议关注零售、酒店餐饮、医药和汽车等。4）海外流动性反转策略。美国通胀已松动，流动性反转交易进行中。关注敏感性行业，如创新药、半导体、黄金等。5）产业景气反转策略。关注汽车、半导体等。
　　风险：小心灰犀牛与黑天鹅，关注中国台湾问题以及欧债问题等。

研究报告全文：股票研究TableTitleEquityResearchResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus20December2022TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨Nil无焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变FlashNoteNotesonMattersRelatedConstructiontotheConstructionEngineeringEngineering--Outperform--NSectorintheCentralEconomicWorkSectorConference快讯中央经济工作会议建筑工程行业相建筑工程行业--跑赢大市--否关表述点评证SectorReportExpectUpsurgeinGaming告Confidenceby2Q2023Upgrade--OutperformNSector券SectorRatingtoOutperform研报行业报告预计到2023年第二季度信心博彩行业--跑赢大市否将激增上调行业评级至跑赢大市究究FoodSectorReportFoodandBeverageBeverage--Outperform--N报研InvestmentOpportunitiesin2023Sector告券行业报告2023年食品饮料行业的投资食品饮料行业--跑赢大市--否EquityResearchReport机会Construction证Bi-WeeklyWrapFavorablePoliciesEngineeringforInfrastructureInvestment--Outperform--NSectorContinued建筑工程行业双周报基建投资利好政策不断--跑赢大市--否SectorReportBankingSectorBi-WeeklyWrapRelevantFavorableBanking--Outperform--NPoliciesBeingPromotedFurtherOutperform行业报告双周报相关利好政策进一步银行业--跑赢大市--否推进跑赢大市SectorReportFocusingontheAutomobilesMid-EndMarketandtheIndustry--Outperform--NSectorExpectsMarginalGrowth行业报告聚焦中端市场行业期待边际汽车行业--跑赢大市--否增量SectorReportRe-examiningtheEnergyValueofThermalPowerintheOperationsContextofPowerSystem--Outperform--NSectorTransformationCoalPriceNottheFocalPoint行业报告重新审视电力系统转型下的能源运营行业--跑赢大市--否火电价值煤价并非关键TypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题策略日出东方港股更红2023港股年度策略2022年12月19日Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of13MorningResearchFocusAppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900012000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPleasesubscribeGTJAIResearchandanalystsWechatsubscriptionaccount国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究PleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRoNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of13MorningResearchFocusIndustryTableFocusandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsFlashNoteConstructionEngineeringSectorNotesonMattersRelatedtotheConstructionEngineeringSectorintheCentralEconomicWorkConferenceRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystGaryWongReportDate2022-12-19SummaryTheCentralEconomicConferencetheConferencewasheldfromDecember15thto16thTheConferencecalledforfocustoremainonstabilitytomakeprogresswhilemaintainingstabilityandcontinuetoimplementaproactivefiscalpolicyandaconsistentlystablemonetarypolicyAproactivefiscalpolicyshouldbeenhancedtoimproveefficiencymaintainingthenecessaryfiscalexpenditureintensityoptimizingthecombinationofdeficitsandspecialdebtandotherinstrumentsandincreasingthecentralgovernmentstransferpaymentstolocalgovernmentsAconsistentlystablemonetarypolicyshouldbepreciseandpowerfulmaintainingreasonableandsufficientliquidityandshouldkeepthegrowthrateofbroaddefinitionofmoneysupplyandsocialfinancingbasicallyinlinewithnominaleconomicgrowthrateWebelievethatthecontentfromtheConferenceisrelevanttotheconstructionengineeringsectorinfollowingfouraspectsSupportingtherealestatesectorIntermsoffocusingonexpandingdomesticdemandtheConferencementionedtheneedtosupporthousingimprovementInadditionthemeetingalsomentionedtoensurethestabledevelopmentoftherealestatemarketdoagoodjobinensuringthedeliveryofpropertiesprotectpeopleslivelihoodandstabilityofthemarketinsisttosatisfyrigidandimprovedhousingneedssolvethehousingproblemsofnewcitizensandyoungpeopleexploreconstructionoflong-termrentalhousingmarketandpromotethesmoothtransitionoftherealestateindustrytoanewdevelopmentmodelWebelievethatwiththeabovemeasurestogetherwiththegradualimplementationofanumberofpoliciestosupportthefinancingofpropertydevelopmentcompaniesinNovemberresidentialpropertiessalesdemandsideandpropertydevelopmentinvestmentsupplysidein2023willsignificantlyimprovecomparedwith2022DuetothesignificantadvantagesofcentralSOEsonthefinancingsidecreditendorsementbycentralenterprisesandsalessideguaranteeddeliveryofpropertiespropertysalesrankingsofmanycentralconstructionengineeringSOEsinvolvedinpropertydevelopmentprojectsrosesharplyinthepastyearrankingsofChinaRailwayConstruction01186HKandChinaRailwayGroup00390HKrosesignificantlyfrom27thand55threspectivelyinJan-Nov2021to17thand29threspectivelyinJan-Nov2022WethinktheseadvantageswillformavirtuousbusinesscycleandthepropertydevelopmentrevenueandprofitsoftheseenterpriseswillcontinuetoincreaseStrengtheninginfrastructureinvestmentIntermsoffocusingonexpandingdomesticdemandtheConferenceproposedtoeffectivelydrivesocialprivateinvestmentwithgovernmentinvestmentandpolicyincentivesacceleratetheimplementationofmajorprojectsproposedwithinthe14thFive-YearPlanandstrengtheninter-regionalinfrastructureconnectivityWebelievethatdespitethepossibleslowdowningrowthrateofinfrastructureinvestmentin2023withanexceptionallyhighratein2022thiswillnotaffecttheresultsofconstructionengineeringSOEsin2023toperformbetterthanin2022asalargeproportionofconstructionrevenueactuallycamefromhousingconstructionnotfrominfrastructureconstructionForexample36ofChinaRailwayConstructions01186HKnewcontractsinthefirsthalfof2022camefromhousingconstructionevenhigherthanrailwaysandroadsconstructionnewcontractscombinedat19UndertherigidrequirementsofguaranteeddeliveryofbuildingsweexpectthattheGFAconstructioninprogressandGFAincompletionwillreturntopositivegrowthnextyearwhichwillstronglypromotethesubstantialgrowthofhousingconstructionrevenueofconstructionengineeringSOEsProvidingnewopportunitiesfortheBeltandRoadinitiative2023willbethetenthanniversaryoftheBeltandRoadinitiativeandChinamayhostthethirdBeltandRoadInternationalCooperationSummitForumWebelievethattheremaybeanumberofmajormeasuresorprojectslaunchedatthattimewhichisinlinewiththemainproposaloftheConferencetopromotetheco-constructionofhigh-qualitydevelopmentoftheBeltandRoadinitiativeDuetothelimitationsofflowoftechniciansandmachinesandequipmentandthesupplychainproblemscausedbytheCovidpandemicinthepasttwoSeethelastpagefordisclaimer3of13MorningResearchFocusyearstheproportionofnewcontractsfromoverseassignedbyconstructionengineeringcentralenterpriseswassignificantlylowerWiththeliftingoftheblockadeandthegradualreturntonormalofinternationalinteractioncoupledwiththecontinuoussigningofnewprojectsalongtheBeltandRoadweexpecttheamountandproportionofnewcontractsfromoverseastoincreasesignificantlynextyearDeepeningthereformofstate-ownedenterprisesThemeetingmentionedthatitisnecessarytodeepenthereformofstate-ownedassetsandenterprisesimprovethecorecompetitivenessofstate-ownedenterprisesimprovethemoderncorporategovernanceofstate-ownedenterpriseswithChinesecharacteristicsandtrulyoperateaccordingtothemarket-orientedmechanismWethinkthesedescriptionsareinlinewiththepropositionsthatMrYiHuimanChairmanoftheChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionmentionedatthe2022FinancialStreetForumAnnualMeetingonNovember21thatitisnecessarytograspthevaluationlogicofdifferenttypesoflistedcompaniesexploreandestablishavaluationsystemwithChinesecharacteristicsandpromotethemarkettoplayabetterroleinresourceallocationForexamplerevenueandshareholdersnetprofitofcentralconstructionenterprisessuchasChinaRailwayGroup00390HKandChinaRailwayConstruction01186HKhaveconsistentlygrowninthepasttenyearsandyetandtheirvaluationsareonlyatappropriately4x2022FPERand04x2022FPBRSuchvaluationsmakeitimpossibletorefinanceinordertofurtherdeveloptheirbusinessWebelievethatwiththecorporategovernanceandstockincentivesprogramofrelevantstate-ownedenterprisesgraduallyimprovinganddrivenbytheresultsofthecompaniesthefuturevaluationswillrisesharplyandreturntoalevelthatcandorefinancingstartinganewvirtuouscircleofbusinessdevelopmentBasedontheaboveviewsourtoppicksarecompaniesbenefitingfromthethemesofrealestatesectorrecoverycontinuedpushininfrastructureinvestmentnewopportunitiesalongtheBeltandRoadbenefitfromstate-ownedenterprisereformandwithalowvaluationourtoppicksareChinaRailwayGroup00390HKtargetpriceHK760ratingBuyChinaRailwayConstruction01186HKtargetpriceHK810ratingBuyandChinaCommunicationsConstruction01800HKtargetpriceHK520ratingAccumulateWealsorecommendcompaniesbenefitingfromthethemesofrealestatesectorrecoveryandcontinuedpushininfrastructureinvestmentwhichareChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKtargetpriceHK1420ratingBuyChinaStateConstructionDevelopment00830HKtargetpriceHK266ratingBuyandBroadHomes02163HKtargetpriceHK850ratingAccumulateReiterateOutperformratingforthesectorSectorReportGamingSectorExpectUpsurgeinConfidenceby2Q2023UpgradeSectorRatingtoOutperformRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystNoahHudsonReportDate2022-12-19SummaryMacaossixincumbentgamingoperatorswereeachgrantednew10-yeargamingconcessionson16DecemberinlinewithmarketexpectationsWethinkthisnewswasfullyexpectedbythemarketandalreadypricedintoMacaogamingstocksespeciallysinceMacaossixgamingincumbentshadalreadybeengrantedprovisionalgamingconcessionson26NovemberWeupgradeourMacaoGamingSectorratingfromNeutraltoOutperformasweexpectasecondupsurgeinconfidenceby2Q2023DespitetherecentsurgeinMacaogamingsharepriceswethinkthatMacaogamingsectorinvestorsentimentisstillunderpressurefromconcernsofthecomingwintercoldandfluseasoninChinaHoweverweexpectthatby2Q2023theseconcernswillpassandwillbefollowedbyanupsurgeininvestorconfidenceintheMacaogamingsectorWeexpectnoreversalinthedirectionofChinasrecentchangesinitspandemiccontrolmeasuresWealsoexpectthatbyearly2Q2023therewillatleastbenewsofifnotyettherealityofnormalizationofmainland-Macaocross-bordertravelWethinkthatthesetwofactorswilldriveasecondupsurgeininvestorconfidenceintheMacaogamingsectorWethinkMacaossixgamingoperatorswillallbenefitfromtheimprovementininvestorsentimentGalaxyEntertainmentGroup00027HKMelcoResortsEntertainmentMLCOUSMGMChina02282HKSandsChina01928HKWynnMacau01128HKandSJMHoldings00880HKRisksReversalofpandemiccontrolpoliciesSeethelastpagefordisclaimer4of13MorningResearchFocusSectorReportFoodBeverageSectorFoodandBeverageInvestmentOpportunitiesin2023RatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystAndyChenReportDate2022-12-19SummaryTheyearaheadforthefoodandbeveragesectorandcompaniesisayearofhopeIn2022domesticpurchasingpowerinChinawasunderpressureandoverallconsumptionwillingnesswasevenweakercomparedtoincomeconditionsChinasretailsalesfurtherdroppedinNovember2022andthetrendcouldcontinueinDecemberHoweverwethinkthatretailsaleswillbottomoutby1Q2023thankstopotentialrecoveryinconsumptionRecentpolicydocumentshavemappedwaystofosterstrongerdomesticdemandpromotingstabilityLookingforwardin2023thepositiveimpactfrominflatingsellingpricesandeasingcostpressurewillbefavorableforinvestinginthefoodandbeveragesectorWeareoptimisticaboutthepotentialupsideinsectorvaluationin2023fromtheperspectiveofmarketliquidityandassetpriceinresponsetomarginalreliefoninterestratehikesInourviewinvestmentopportunitiesinthefoodandbeveragesectorin2023arevisibleFirstofallwearebullishontheleadingplayersinthebeerandliquidmilksegmentsinChinaastheyarethelargestbeneficiariesoftheongoingpremiumizationtrendOurtoppickisChinaResourcesBeer00291HKandwerecommendTsingtaoBeer00168HKSecondmilkpowderandbraisedfoodssegmentshavelargerpotentialforprofitabilityreboundalongsidegradualrecoveryindomesticdemandOurratingonChinaFeihe06186HKisBuyandwealsorecommendZhouHeiYa01458HKThirdsomedefensivepicksinthenon-alcoholicbeveragecategorymayalsooutperformthemarketgiventheirstablelong-termbusinessprospectsOurratingonChinaFoods00506HKisBuyandwerecommendNongfuSpring09633HKDuetoacceleratedverticalintegrationindairyfarmingandtherawmilkproductionindustrychaincoupledwithlessintensifiedpricingcompetitionmarketleadersmayenjoyhighervaluationduetostabilizedearningsgrowthYouranDairy09858HKandChinaModernDairy01117HKwillbebeneficiariesRiskfactorsRecoveryofofflineconsumptionmaymissexpectationsunexpectedpricefluctuationsinrawmaterialsandorpackagingcomponentsfoodsafetyproblemsSectorReportConstructionEngineeringSectorBi-WeeklyWrapFavorablePoliciesforInfrastructureInvestmentContinuedRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystGaryWongReportDate2022-12-19SummaryInvestmentsuggestionsOurtoppicksarecompaniesbenefitingfromthethemesofrealestatesectorrecoverycontinuedpushininfrastructureinvestmentnewopportunitiesalongtheBeltandRoadbenefitfromstate-ownedenterprisereformandwithlowvaluationourtoppicksareChinaRailwayGroup00390HKtargetpriceHK760ratingBuyChinaRailwayConstruction01186HKtargetpriceHK810ratingBuyandChinaCommunicationsConstruction01800HKtargetpriceHK520ratingAccumulateReiterateOutperformratingforthesectorSectornewsupdatesTheCentralEconomicWorkConferencewasheldon15to16December2022TheConferencecalledforfocustoremainonstabilitytomakeprogresswhilemaintainingstabilityandcontinuetoimplementaproactivefiscalpolicyandaconsistentlystablemonetarypolicyTheconferenceproposedtoeffectivelydrivesocialprivateinvestmentwithgovernmentinvestmentandpolicyincentivesacceleratetheimplementationofmajorprojectsproposedwithinthe14thFive-YearPlanandstrengtheninter-regionalinfrastructureconnectivityCompanynewsupdates1ChinaCommunicationsConstruction01800HKproposedintroductionofthird-partyinvestorstocertainsubsidiaries2BroadHomes02163HKannouncedchangeofPresidentandproposedappointmentofvicechairpersonsRisks1Governmentinfrastructurespendingmaybelowerthanexpected2possibleinflationexceedingexpectationsmaycausepolicytightening3worldwideepidemicsituationmightseefluctuationSeethelastpagefordisclaimer5of13MorningResearchFocusSectorReportBankingSectorBi-WeeklyWrapRelevantFavorablePoliciesBeingPromotedFurtherOutperformRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystRichardCaoReportDate2022-12-19SummaryInNovembernewRMBloansachievedRMB12trndecreasedbyRMB596bnYoYConsideringthesupportivepoliciesrelatedtotherealestateindustryandtheoptimizationoftheanti-epidemicpoliciesweexpectthatgrowthinloanswillrecovergiventheloosecreditinthenearfutureSupportivepoliciesforrealestateenterpriseshavebeenfurtherpromotedandanti-epidemicpolicieshavebeenfurtheroptimizedwhichisexpectedtopromoteeconomicrecoveryInadditiontolargestate-ownedbanksmajorjoint-stockbankscitycommercialbanksandruralcommercialbankshavealsojoinedthecreditextensiontorealestateenterprisesMeanwhilesomecitieshaverelaxedpoliciesrelatedtohousepurchasingOn7DecembertheChinesegovernmentissuedtenmeasurestofurtheroptimizethepreventionandcontroloftheepidemicTheCentralEconomicWorkConferenceheldon15-16Decembercontinuedtoemphasizethesteadydevelopmentoftherealestatemarketandtheoptimizationofanti-epidemicpoliciesTheCentralEconomicWorkConferenceheldapositivepolicytoneontheeconomyin2023whichincludedproactivefiscalpolicyandprudentmonetarypolicyGiventhegovernmentssupportivepoliciesandtheoptimizationofanti-epidemicpoliciesweexpectthatChineseeconomywillstabilizeandrecoverin2023WemaintainOutperformratingforthebankingsectorin2023WepickmainlandbankswhowillbenefitmostfromtherelaxationofrealestatepoliciesandmainlandbankswhosefinancialresultsperformanceisexpectedtobebetterasourpriorityrecommendationsWerecommendCMB03968HKandPSBC01658HKMeanwhilewealsorecommendBOCHK02388HKandHSBC00005HKwhowillbenefitfromtheUSFederalReservescontinuousinterestratehikesandthatearningsgrowthisexpectedtoremaingoodin2023RiskfactorsThedeclineintheeconomymaybebeyondexpectationstheresultsofpoliciesmaynotbeinlineSectorReportAutomobilesSectorFocusingontheMid-EndMarketandtheIndustryExpectsMarginalGrowthRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystIvanWuReportDate2022-12-19SummaryPassengervehiclePVOEMsTraditionalFVdemandhasbeenfluctuatingwithinastablerangeandgrowthofNEVisfocusedonPHEVWeexpectFVdemandtobeunderpressurein2023aftermaximisingVPTpolicystimulusin2022ButthereisnoneedtobetoopessimisticTheautoindustryplaysakeyroleinstabilizingChinaseconomyOncedemanddropssignificantlynewpoliciescanbeexpectedWeexpectsalesofNEVstocontinuetoseerapidgrowthin2023ThemaindrivingforceforgrowthwillcomefromhybridmodelsandstructuralgrowthoftheBEVmarketComponentsIntelligentelectroniccomponentsIECarebecomingeconomicalandapplicableanddomesticsubstitutionisacceleratingAscompetitionincreasesinthePVmarketthecoreideaofcomponentsin2023istobeaffordableandtopromotefinalsalesAmongstandardcomponentsandoptionalcomponentsproductsthatconsumerscanquicklyassesswillbebeneficiariesThereispressureongrowthforsomecomponentswithhighcomplexsettingsandhighsalesgrowthtoimproveproductionefficiencyWithconsiderationtocostreductionandsupplychainsecuritydomesticsubstitutionwillcontinuetoaccelerateAfterindustryexpectationadjustmentswerecommendinvestmentlinesofintelligentizationnewenergyself-ownedbrandIn2023themarketwillshiftfromcompany-driventoindustry-drivenaftertheexpectedadjustmentThemarketsperceptionofcomponentswillshiftfrompurelycompany-driventosustainedhigh-growth-drivenviaintelligentizationanddomesticsubstitutionTop-tierfirmswithhigh-growthpotentialwillkeepenjoyingpremiumvaluationsasmarketsentimentbottomsWethinkthatvaluationsofOEMswillberepairedduringthephasedrestorationandthemarketneednotbeoverlypessimisticFortheOEMsectorwerecommendGeelyAuto00175HKGreatWallMotor-H02333HKandLiAuto-W02015HKforthecomponentssectorwerecommendNexteer01316HKRiskwarning1Covid-19pandemicimpactsonthePVsupplychain2increasingindustrycompetitionand3Seethelastpagefordisclaimer6of13MorningResearchFocusweaker-than-expectedPVdemandSectorReportEnergyOperationsSectorRe-examiningtheValueofThermalPowerintheContextofPowerSystemTransformationCoalPriceNottheFocalPointRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystPeterShaoReportDate2022-12-19SummaryDoescoalpricemattertothermalIPPsApparentlycoalpricesmatterastheytogetherwithpowerpriceslargelydeterminetheprofitabilityofthermalpowerButwebelievecoalpricesdonotmatterinthesensethattheyarebecominglessrelevantindeterminingtheintrinsicvalueofthermalIPPsinthecontextofpowersystemtransformationPSTThisisnotonlythankstothegreentransformationinitiatedbymanythermalIPPsbutalsobecauseofthevalueunlockedbythermalpowersroleamidPSTCoalpricepersecanbecomeevenmoreirrelevantwhenitcomestocapitalmarketsContrarytowhatmanyinvestorsmightthinkanempiricalstudyconductedbyourA-shareutilityteamrevealsthatcoalpriceshavelargelyfailedtoexplainthestockperformanceofthermalIPPsinA-sharemarketssince2000plsreferto火电复盘启示煤价并非主导溢价源于扩张publishedon3Dec2022OurA-shareutilityteamfurthersuggeststhatitisbrighterassetexpansionprospectthathasbeenmoreassociatedwiththesuperiorperformanceofthermalIPPsinA-sharesoverthepasttwodecadesHowweunderstandthevalueofthermalpowerWebelievethecorevalueofthermalpowerliesintherolethermalpowerplaysduringPSTSimplyputthermalpowerhasaroletoplayinPSTasthegenerationflexibilityitprovidesisindispensabletoafundamentallytransformedpowersystemfeaturedbyhighpenetrationofuncontrollablevariablerenewableenergyVREThevalueassociatedwithsuchroleisbothmonetaryandnon-monetaryinourviewthemonetaryvaluewillbelargelydeterminedbythesupply-demandforthermalpowerasaregulatingandbackuppowersourcewhilethenon-monetaryvalueislargelyrelatedtothedevelopmentedgebroughtbythermalpowerfornewenergyprojectsamidChinasPSTWeareparticularlypositiveonwhatwedefineasthenon-monetaryvalueofthermalpowersuchnon-monetaryvaluecanalsoexplainwhyrecentpoliciesinChinahavebeenmorefavourableforthermalIPPstoparticipateinnewenergyprojectsDavisDoublePlayinsightforthermalIPPsWeexpectthermalIPPstoseeimprovedearningsprofilesbothintermsofearningsgrowthandstabilityastheypushforwardgreentransformationAssuchbasedonempiricalevidencefromA-sharemarketsaswementionedabovewebelieveDavisDoublePlaycouldbearoundthecornerforthermalIPPsWereiterateoursectorratingofOutperformOursectortop-pickisCPID02380HKwhichhasarguablythemostambitioustransformationplanvspeersWealsorecommendthermalIPPswithasolidtransformationplannotablyChinaResourcesPower00836HKandHuanengPowerChineseTranslation中文翻译行业和公司焦点TableFocuschiNil无TableLatestchi最新报告快讯建筑工程行业中央经济工作会议建筑工程行业相关表述点评评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员黄家玮报告日期2022-12-19报告摘要中央经济工作会议会议于12月15日至16日召开会议要求明年要坚持稳字当头稳中求进继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策积极的财政政策要加力提效保持必要的财政支出强度优化组合赤字及专项债等工具并加大中央对地方的转移支付力度稳健的货币政策要精准有力要保持流动性合理充裕保持广义货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配此外我们认为会议内容和建筑工程行业相关的表述主要在以下四个方面Seethelastpagefordisclaimer7of13MorningResearchFocus支持房地产行业在着力扩大国内需求方面会议提到要支持住房改善此外会议亦提到确保房地产市场平稳发展扎实做好保交楼保民生保稳定各项工作坚持刚性和改善性住房需求解决好新市民青年人等住房问题探索长租房市场建设并推动房地产业向新发展模式平稳过渡我们认为以上措施加上11月多个支持房地产企业融资的政策逐步落实明年商品房销售需求端及房地产开发投资供应端将较今年显著改善由于央企在融资端央企信用背书及销售端能保证交房的显著优势很多涉房建筑工程央企的房地产销售排名在过去一年大幅上升如中国铁建01186HK及中国中铁00390HK的排名分别从2021年1-11月的第27位及第55位大幅提高至2022年1-11月的第17位及第29位我们认为这些优势将形成良性的经营循环涉房建筑央企的房地产开发收入及利润将持续提高加强基建投资在着力扩大国内需求方面会议提出要通过政府投资和政策激励有效带动全社会投资加快实施十四五重大工程加强区域间基础设施联通我们认为即使在今年基建投资增速异常高的情况下明年增速或将放缓也并不影响建筑央企明年的业绩好于今年主要因为现时很多建筑工程央企主要的建筑业务收入并不是来自基建而是来自房建例如中国铁建01186HK2022年上半年新签合同中36来自房建甚至比铁路和公路新签合同的合共占比19还要高在保交楼的刚性要求下我们预计明年总施工面积及总竣工面积将恢复正增长从而强力推动建筑央企的房建业务收入大幅增长提供一带一路新机遇2023年是一带一路倡议提出十周年中国或将主办第三届一带一路国际合作高峰论坛我们认为届时或将有多项重磅措施或项目推出符合会议提出要推动共建一带一路高质量发展的要求由于过去两年疫情影响下技术人员及机器设备流动受限叠加供应链扰动建筑央企的国际新签合同占比大幅走低随着防控措施优化及与国际往来逐步恢复常态加上一带一路新项目的持续签订我们预计明年国际新签合同金额及占比将大幅增加深化国企改革会议提到要深化国资国企改革提高国企核心竞争力完善中国特色国有企业现代公司治理真正按市场化机制运营我们认为这与中国证监会主席易会满于11月21日在2022金融街论坛年会上的提法是相辅相承的即要把握好不同类型上市公司的估值逻辑探索建立具有中国特色的估值体系促进市场资源配置功能更好发挥例如中国中铁00390HK及中国铁建01186HK等建筑央企的收入及股东净利在过去十年持续增长但其估值仅为4倍左右的2022年市盈率及04倍左右的2022年市净率这样的估值导致其没法进行再融资以进一步发展业务我们认为相关央企在公司治理及股权激励的逐步完善下加上公司层面的业绩带动未来估值将出现大幅上升并重新回到能够进行再融资的水平开启业务发展的新良性循环基于以上观点我们重点推荐受惠于地产回暖基建投资持续发力一带一路新机遇国企改革低估值主题的公司包括中国中铁00390HK目标价760港元评级买入中国铁建01186HK目标价810港元评级买入及中交建01800HK目标价520港元评级收集此外我们亦推荐受惠于地产回暖和基建投资持续发力主题的公司包括中国建筑国际03311HK目标价1420港元评级买入中国建筑兴业00830HK目标价266港元评级买入及远大住工02163HK目标价850港元评级收集重申行业跑赢大市评级行业报告博彩行业预计到2023年第二季度信心将激增上调行业评级至跑赢大市评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员NoahHudson报告日期2022-12-19报告摘要澳门现有的六家博彩运营商分别于12月16日获批新的10年期博彩经营批给合同符合市场预期我们认为这一消息完全符合市场预期澳门博彩股价在信息公布之前已经反映了此信息的预期特别是因为六家博彩商已于11月26日获得临时博彩经营批给合同我们将澳门博彩业评级由中性上调至跑赢大市因为我们预计到2023年第二季信心将再次上升尽管澳门博彩股价近期飙升但在对中国即将到来的冬季感冒和流感季节的担忧之下我们认为澳门博彩业投资者情绪仍然受压然而我们预计到2023年第二季度这些担忧将会过去而投资者对澳门博彩业的信心就会激增我们预计中国近期疫情防控措施的变化方向不会逆转我们也预计到2023年第二季度初至少会有内地与澳门跨境旅行正常化的消息甚至有望已经实现我们认为这两个因素将推动投资者对澳门博彩业的信心再次上升我们认为澳门的六家博彩运营商都将受益于投资者情绪的改善包括银河娱乐00027HK新濠博亚MLCOUS美高梅中国02282HK金沙中国01928HK永利澳门01128HK及澳博控股00880HK风险疫情防控政策收紧Seethelastpagefordisclaimer8of13MorningResearchFocus行业报告食品饮料行业2023年食品饮料行业的投资机会评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员陈思超报告日期2022-12-19报告摘要对于食品饮料行业与公司而言未来的一年是充满希望的一年2022年国内居民购买力承压整体消费意愿相比收入端更弱2022年11月国内社会零售额进一步下滑12月的表现可能仍较为低迷然而由于消费场景面临潜在修复我们预计2023年第一季度社会零售额将触底企稳近期的政策亦针对培育强大的内需以及增强稳定性指明了方向展望2023年销售价格上升与成本压力减弱的积极影响将是投资于食品饮料行业的有利条件从市场流动性与资产定价的角度来看由于预期加息步伐或边际放缓我们对2023年行业估值的潜在上行空间持乐观态度我们认为2023年食品饮料行业的主题性投资机会是可见的首先我们推荐国内啤酒和液态奶赛道的龙头公司因其是当下高端化趋势的最大受益者我们的首选股是华润啤酒00291HK我们推荐青岛啤酒00168HK其次随着内需逐步回升卤味食品和奶粉等细分领域的利润率反弹空间较大我们对中国飞鹤06186HK的评级为买入并推荐周黑鸭01458HK再者鉴于稳定的长期业务展望非酒精饮料板块的若干防御性标的亦有望跑赢大市我们对中国食品00506HK的评级为买入并推荐农夫山泉09633HK由于奶牛养殖和原奶生产链条的纵向一体化提速加上价格竞争趋于缓和市场龙头有望录得更稳健的盈利增长从而享有更高的估值优然牧业09858HK以及现代牧业01117HK将会受益风险因素线下消费场景的修复可能不及预期原材料及包装物料的价格波动可能超预期食品安全问题行业报告建筑工程行业双周报基建投资利好政策不断评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员黄家玮报告日期2022-12-19报告摘要投资建议我们的首选股为受惠于地产回暖基建投资持续发力一带一路新机遇国企改革低估值主题的公司包括中国中铁00390HK目标价760港元评级买入中国铁建01186HK目标价810港元评级买入及中交建01800HK目标价520港元评级收集重申行业跑赢大市评级行业新闻更新中央经济工作会议于2022年12月15日至16日召开会议要求明年要坚持稳字当头稳中求进继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策会议提出要通过政府投资和政策激励有效带动全社会投资加快实施十四五重大工程加强区域间基础设施联通公司新闻更新1中交建01800HK拟向部分子公司引入第三方投资者2远大住工02163HK宣布更换总经理及拟委任副董事长风险1政府基础设施支出可能低于预期2可能超预期的通胀或导致政策收紧3世界各地的疫情可能会出现波动行业报告银行行业双周报相关利好政策进一步推进跑赢大市评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员曹柱报告日期2022-12-19报告摘要11月新增人民币贷款达12万亿元人民币同比减少596亿元人民币考虑房地产行业支持性政策及防疫政策的优化未来一段时间在宽信用背景下我们预计贷款增速将会恢复房地产支持性政策进一步推进以及防疫政策进一步优化预计将推动经济复苏除了国有大行主要股份行城商行农商行也已加入了对房地产企业的授信同时部分城市已放松了购房政策12月7日中国政府出台了进一步优化疫情防Seethelastpagefordisclaimer9of13MorningResearchFocus控的10条措施12月15-16日召开的中央经济工作会议继续强调房地产市场平稳发展以及防疫政策的优化中央经济工作会议对2023年经济政策基调积极包括积极的财政政策及稳健的货币政策在政府支持性政策以及疫情防控政策优化的背景下我们预计2023年中国经济将企稳复苏我们维持银行行业2023年跑赢大市投资评级我们挑选最受益于房地产政策放松的内地银行以及业绩表现较好的内地银行作为我们的优先推荐我们推荐招商银行03968HK邮储银行01658HK同时我们亦推荐中银香港02388HK汇丰控股00005HK其受益于美联储持续加息2023年盈利增速预计维持较好风险因素经济下行超出预期政策效果不及预期行业报告汽车行业聚焦中端市场行业期待边际增量评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员吴凱翔报告日期2022-12-19报告摘要乘用车整车燃油车需求区间平稳波动新能源汽车增长看好混动继2022年汽车购置税政策刺激透支后预计2023年燃油车需求将承压但也无需过度悲观汽车行业在稳定中国经济方面起重要作用一旦需求大幅下降新一轮政策将可期2023年新能源汽车销量有望继续快速增长主要增长动力来自混动车型以及纯电动市场的结构性增长零部件智能电动回归经济适用国产替代加速随着乘用车市场竞争的加剧2023年零部件的核心是经济适用和促进终端销售在标配零部件和选配零部件中消费者能够快速体验的产品将受益对于选择一些高配和高销售增长为基础提升生产效率的零部件增速存在压力在降低成本和供应链安全的考虑下国产替代将继续加速行业预期调整后我们推荐智能化新能源自主品牌投资主线市场经过预期调整后2023年将从公司驱动转向行业驱动市场对零部件的认知会从单纯的公司驱动走向电动智能国产替代驱动下的持续高增长随着市场情绪触底具高增长潜力的头部公司将继续享有高估值我们认为整车的机会在预期阶段性修复时的估值修复市场不必过于悲观整车板块我们推荐吉利汽车00175HK长城汽车-H02333HK和理想汽车-W02015HK零部件板块我们推荐耐世特01316HK风险提示1新冠疫情冲击乘用车产业链2行业竞争加剧3乘用车需求低于预期日出东方港股更红2023港股年度策略策略组汪昌江李少金黄凯鸿报告日期2022-12-19报告摘要展望东升西落看多港股从分子端盈利来看中国经济逐步复苏海外经济或步入衰退从分母端估值来看海外通胀和流动性缓解推动估值修复东升西落全球资金或提升对港股配置权重整体上2023年中国经济复苏叠加美元美债利率下行港股弹性更大空间双轮驱动全球居前基于盈利增长估值修复分红在合理假设下在2023年全球股指预期回报率排名中恒指居前或接近30估值和盈利修复是恒指预期收益率的最大来源节奏港股牛市三级火箭1一级火箭政策利好仍将纷至沓来风险偏好将继续修复现在进行中2二级火箭加息周期尾声美元美债利率下行新兴市场代表之一的港股估值将打开进一步修复空间恒指或修复至2022年6月前的位置3三级火箭中国经济复苏港股业绩兑现并筑底反弹恒指或修复至2022年1月前波折预期延续现实不远可能存在的波折有强预期和弱现实的博弈受短期疫情因素延缓经济底和业绩底出现时点2023年Q1美股盈利下修或现衰退交易美联储态度反复等风险因素仍会造成火箭推力阶段性不足因此行情可能反复需要注意节奏Seethelastpagefordisclaimer10of13MorningResearchFocus机会逆境反转内外兼顾1震荡期回调有限逢低加仓在政策底与业绩底的中间时期港股往往经历震荡期但整体不会跌破前低2内外需蹊跷板效应地产链逆境反转策略地产供给端三箭齐发期待未来需求端政策建议关注地产金融材料汽车及零部件等行业3国内消费复苏两步走消费链逆境反转策略第一阶段国内疫情防控政策继续优化消费场景复苏第二阶段在疫情受控经济复苏后居民收入上升消费意愿抬升建议关注零售酒店餐饮医药和汽车等4海外流动性反转策略美国通胀已松动流动性反转交易进行中关注敏感性行业如创新药半导体黄金等5产业景气反转策略关注汽车半导体等风险小心灰犀牛与黑天鹅关注中国台湾问题以及欧债问题等Seethelastpagefordisclaimer11of13MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Computer计算机danieltaogtjascomhk8675523976885EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer12of13MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKGREENTOWNCHINA03900HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKASYMCHEM-HSHARES06821HKSENSETIME-W00020HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2022GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer13of13