11月，新增人民币贷款达1.2万亿元人民币，同比减少596亿元人民币。考虑房地产行业支持性政策及防疫政策的优化，未来一段时间，在宽信用背景下，我们预计贷款增速将会恢复。
　　房地产支持性政策进一步推进以及防疫政策进一步优化，预计将推动经济复苏。除了国有大行，主要股份行、城商行、农商行也已加入了对房地产企业的授信。同时，部分城市已放松了购房政策。12月7日，中国政府出台了进一步优化疫情防控的10条措施。
　　12月15-16日召开的中央经济工作会议继续强调房地产市场平稳发展以及防疫政策的优化。中央经济工作会议对2023年经济政策基调积极，包括积极的财政政策及稳健的货币政策。在政府支持性政策以及疫情防控政策优化的背景下，我们预计2023年中国经济将企稳复苏。
　　我们维持银行行业2023年“跑赢大市”投资评级。我们挑选最受益于房地产政策放松的内地银行以及业绩表现较好的内地银行作为我们的优先推荐。我们推荐招商银行(03968HK)、邮储银行(01658 HK)。同时，我们亦推荐中银香港(02388 HK)、汇丰控股(00005 HK)，其受益于美联储持续加息，2023年盈利增速预计维持较好。
　　风险因素：经济下行超出预期；政策效果不及预期。
　　

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportBankingSectorRichardCao曹柱行业报告银行行业8675523976870zhucaogtjascomhk19December2022TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyWrapRelevantFavorablePoliciesBeingPromoted行FurtherOutperform双周报相关利好政策进一步推进跑赢大市业报InNovembernewRMBloansachievedRMB12trndecreasedbyRMB596TableInvestInfo告bnYoYConsideringthesupportivepoliciesrelatedtotherealestateindustryOutperformSectorReportRatingandtheoptimizationoftheanti-epidemicpoliciesweexpectthatgrowthinMaintainedloanswillrecovergiventheloosecreditinthenearfutureSupportivepoliciesforrealestateenterpriseshavebeenfurther评级跑赢大市维持promotedandanti-epidemicpolicieshavebeenfurtheroptimized2whichisexpectedtopromoteeconomicrecoveryInadditiontolargestate-ownedbanksmajorjoint-stockbankscitycommercialbanksandruralSectorperformancecommercialbankshavealsojoinedthecreditextensiontorealestate行业表现enterprisesMeanwhilesomecitieshaverelaxedpoliciesrelatedtohouse300purchasingOn7DecembertheChinesegovernmentissuedtenmeasures200tofurtheroptimizethepreventionandcontroloftheepidemic10000证TheCentralEconomicWorkConferenceheldon15-16Decembercontinued-100告-200券toemphasizethesteadydevelopmentoftherealestatemarketandthe-300研报optimizationofanti-epidemicpoliciesTheCentralEconomicWork-400Conferenceheldapositivepolicytoneontheeconomyin2023which-500究究-600includedproactivefiscalpolicyandprudentmonetarypolicyGiventhe-700ResearchReport报研governmentssupportivepoliciesandtheoptimizationofanti-epidemicHSIIndexIndexofmainlandlistedbanks告policiesweexpectthatChineseeconomywillstabilizeandrecoverin券2023SourceBloombergEquity证WemaintainOutperformratingforthebankingsectorin2023WepickYoYgrowthinbalanceofTSFandmainlandbankswhowillbenefitmostfromtherelaxationofrealestateRMBloanspoliciesandmainlandbankswhosefinancialresultsperformanceisexpected社会融资及人民币贷款存量同比增速tobebetterasourpriorityrecommendationsWerecommendCMB03968HKandPSBC01658HKMeanwhilewealsorecommendBOCHK02388140135HKandHSBC00005HKwhowillbenefitfromtheUSFederalReserves130Tcontinuousinterestratehikesandthatearningsgrowthisexpectedtoremain125120agoodin2023115110b105RiskfactorsThedeclineintheeconomymaybebeyondexpectationsthe100银lresultsofpoliciesmaynotbeinline9590行e11月新增人民币贷款达12万亿元人民币同比减少596亿元人民币考虑房地产行业行支持性政策及防疫政策的优化未来一段时间在宽信用背景下我们预计贷款增速将会BalanceofTSFYoYgrowhtBalanceofRMBloansYoYgrowth业恢复LSourcethePeoplesBankofChinaGuotaiJunanInternationalBankingSector房地产支持性政策进一步推进以及防疫政策进一步优化预计将推动经济复苏除了国有e大行主要股份行城商行农商行也已加入了对房地产企业的授信同时部分城市已f放松了购房政策12月7日中国政府出台了进一步优化疫情防控的10条措施t12月15-16日召开的中央经济工作会议继续强调房地产市场平稳发展以及防疫政策的优化中央经济工作会议对2023年经济政策基调积极包括积极的财政政策及稳健的货币M政策在政府支持性政策以及疫情防控政策优化的背景下我们预计2023年中国经济将a企稳复苏r我们维持银行行业2023年跑赢大市投资评级我们挑选最受益于房地产政策放松的内地银行以及业绩表现较好的内地银行作为我们的优先推荐我们推荐招商银行03968gHK邮储银行01658HK同时我们亦推荐中银香港02388HK汇丰控股00005HKi其受益于美联储持续加息2023年盈利增速预计维持较好n风险因素经济下行超出预期政策效果不及预期SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of7SourceTable2SourceTable1202020202020202020202020202020202020202020202020creditintheinthecreditnearfutureantiofoptimizationtheandindustrywereproductsexpectmanagementwealthrelthatbeenhasproductswasmanagementwealthofloansredemptionintensiveforcorporatepressurethatnewConsideringindeclinetheforreasonstheoffacbiggestthewaswhichYoYbnRMB3410bydecreasedbondscorporateNewYoYwhichwasmainlydraggedbythedeclineinnewRMBloansnewforloansdidntturnwninAlthoughstrongrelativelymediummYoYbnand46down12pptsQoQandup04pptsQoQrespectivelyChinaofBankPeoplesexpectWeSectorBankingMainland222222222222222222222222edium122222222222122222222222------------------------1111120102030405060708010120102030405060708010ew99tthePeoplesBankofChinaGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiChinaofPeoplesheBankhePeoplesBankofChinaGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiChinaofPeoplesheBankmainChinasfinancingreadingsSethatthatChinah--NewouseholdemnlongandtermlongandtermethitsnegativeimpactonTSFwillmitigateinthenearfutureConsideringthesupportivepoliciesrelatedtothesnonlasatmainmainM1andM2tM1YoYgrowthYoYM1growthinloanswillrecovergiventhegovernmethegivenrecoverloanswillingrowth-pagRMB00RMBNewRMBNewRMBfinancialcorporatemediumcorporatefinancialmediume1890018900281001250024700121003980039800123003130011300orseorsedespiteimpactloans645467906152fom--rtermemMloansRMBtermndisclaimer0PBOC19-3547475146586761645846newtermandlongandtermMlasdcesdyM318bYYTeodnraenninincreasegoodTheYoYbnRMB3718bydecreasedloansRMBhRMB00RMBM2YoYgrowthYoYM2NewRMBNewRMBouseholdannouncedthemainmonetaryreadingsmonetarymaintheannounceddepositsindicators184438300383002540044900304004830012800263002950011600-epidemicpoliciesweexpectwepoliciesepidemicm909909447n0-fromterm105105120122121124showed111114118m90989297YoYgrowthofofYoYgrowthedium-termandlongandtermthetheRMBloanswassimilartothatinOctoberwhichshowedwhichOctoberinthattosimilarwasloansRMBnewRMBRMBnewYoYdifferenceYoYdifferencePlocallocalCovid-that103561371255loanstermandlongterm964714714726032548811225ofM1YoYofM1mgrowthppts166edium5127241115031819273016MoMgrowthgrowthMoMofnewRMBnewRMBof-termRMBloansloansRMBtermepi-emnlongandtermdemicNewTSFamountedtoRMB199trndownRMB6109bnMoMdifferencedifferenceMoM-691794758751loansNewRMBachievedRMB12loa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