上调目标价至7.00港元并重申“买入”。考虑到疫情优化政策初期客流恢复进程仍不平坦，我们预计公司线下零售短期仍将承压。我们下修公司2023-2025财年股东净利润预测7.8%、5.0%及3.9%至人民币21.29亿元、人民币26.26亿元和人民币29.36亿元。展望未来，我们乐观认为，公司作为中国运动鞋服零售商龙头，随着线下消费逐步复苏，业绩将迎来反转。
　　我们预计公司2024财年销售增速将回归正轨。2022年第四季度以来，低迷的零售环境与疲软的客流量拖累了公司线下零售门店销售。但随着防疫措施优化、消费客流恢复以及低基数效应，我们预计公司2024财年的销售增长将从低谷反弹。
　　库存改善为公司销售复苏奠定了基础。截至2023财年第三季度末，库销比略高于4.0倍，接近疫情前水平。库龄结构较八月底有所改善。我们认为库存水平及结构改善将有助于公司新品供应与市场需求更为匹配，进而促进2024财年的新品销售。
　　催化剂：1）线下消费实质性复苏；2）主力品牌销售改善超预期；3）与头部国产品牌更广泛及深入的合作。
　　风险：1）中国体育鞋服市场增速放缓；2）局部地区疫情反复及病毒变异；3）品牌商DTC战略变化

研究报告全文：股票研TableTitle汤瀚森CompanyReportTopsports06110HKHansenTang究8675523976884EquityResearch公司报告滔搏06110HKhansentanggtjascomhk26December2022ImprovingTableSummaryInventorySetstheStageforSalesRecoveryReiterateBuy库存改善为销售复苏奠定基础重申买入RaiseTPtoHK700andreiterateBuyConsideringthattherecoveryof公consumerflowisstillbumpyattheinitialstageofoptimizedanti-epidemicRatingTableRankBuy司policiesweexpectthattheCompanysofflineretailsalestofaceshorttermMaintainedheadwindsWecutshareholdersprofitforecastsby7850and39for报评级买入维持FY2023-2025toRMB2129millionRMB2626millionandRMB2936million告respectivelyLookingaheadweareoptimisticthattheCompanyastheCompanyReportCompanyleaderofsportswearretailersinChinawillexperienceaperformancereversal6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK700asofflineconsumptiongraduallyrecoverRevisedfrom原目标价HK600WeexpecttheCompanyssalesgrowthtogetbackontrackinFY2024Shareprice股价HK6320Since4Q2022sluggishretailenvironmentandweakcustomertrafficweighedonsalesoftheCompanysofflineretailstoresHoweverwithoptimizedanti-CovidmeasuresrecoveryofconsumerflowandlowbaseeffectweexpectStockperformancetheCompanyssalesgrowthinFY2024toreboundfromthetrough股价表现ImprovinginventorysetsthestagefortheCompanyssalesrecoveryTableQuotePic200Inventoryturnoverwasslightlyover40xbytheendof3QFY2023closetoofreturnpre-pandemiclevelsInventoryagingmiximprovedcomparedwiththeendof100AugustWebelievethatimprovedinventorylevelandagingmixwillhelpthe00证Companytobettermatchthenewproductsupplywithmarketdemandinthe100告券futureandthuspromotenewproductssalesinFY2024200研报Catalysts1Substantialrecoveryofofflineconsumption2better-than-300expectedimprovementinprincipalbrandsalesand3moreextensiveandin-究究400depthcooperationwithtopdomesticbrands报Risks1SlowdowninChinassportswearindustrygrowth2resurgenceof500研Dec-21Mar-22May-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22告localCovidepidemicandCovidmutationsand3ChangesinbrandsDTC券strategiesHSIIndexTopsportsEquityResearchReport证上调目标价至700港元并重申买入考虑到疫情优化政策初期客流恢复进程仍不平TablePriceChangeChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Y坦我们预计公司线下零售短期仍将承压我们下修公司2023-2025财年股东净利润预测Tabl股价变动1个月3个月1年7850及39至人民币2129亿元人民币2626亿元和人民币2936亿元展望Abs40455157eInf未来我们乐观认为公司作为中国运动鞋服零售商龙头随着线下消费逐步复苏业绩绝对变动ReltoHSIndex2863702o1将迎来反转相对恒指变动纺AvgSharepriceHK我们预计公司2024财年销售增速将回归正轨2022年第四季度以来低迷的零售环境与545059平均股价港元织疲软的客流量拖累了公司线下零售门店销售但随着防疫措施优化消费客流恢复以及低服SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational装基数效应我们预计公司2024财年的销售增长将从低谷反弹行库存改善为公司销售复苏奠定了基础截至2023财年第三季度末库销比略高于40倍业接近疫情前水平库龄结构较八月底有所改善我们认为库存水平及结构改善将有助于公司新品供应与市场需求更为匹配进而促进2024财年的新品销售催化剂1线下消费实质性复苏2主力品牌销售改善超预期3与头部国产品牌更广TextilesApparelTextilesSectorApparel泛及深入的合作风险1中国体育鞋服市场增速放缓2局部地区疫情反复及病毒变异3品牌商DTC战略变化TableYTableearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROE年结Profit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率Info20228RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMB2021A36009277004479312915653406401202742022A3187724470395116146170630043083241中2023F2775121290343130168180932024042195外10HK2024F3225126260423234136193630029651226滔2025F3615429360473118122207828033157236运搏Sharesinissuem总股数m62012Majorshareholder大股东Hillhouse349输TableBaseDataMarketcapHKm市值HKm391917Freefloat自由流通比率3233monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数00076443FY23NetgearingFY23净负债股东资金Netcash52WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK86273880FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元74Topsports061SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of5TablePageHeaderTopsports06110HKRaiseTPtoHK700andreiterateBuyConsideringthattherecoveryofconsumerflowisstillbumpyattheinitialstageofoptimizedanti-epidemicpoliciesweexpectthatofflineretailsalesofTopsportsinternational1rTopsportsaMthgoritheRCompanyelbaTmaystillfacepressureintheshort-termWecutshareholdersprofitforecastsforFY2023-2025by7850and39toRMB2129millionRMB2626millionandRMB2936millionrespectivelyLookingaheadweareoptimisticthattheCompanyastheleaderofsportswearretailersinChinawillexperienceaperformancereversalasofflineconsumptiongraduallyrecoverWethusraiseTPtoHK700toreflectoptimisticmarketsentimentandhighervisibilityoftheCompanysfutureperformanceOurnewTPcorrespondsto150xFY2024PER26December2022OfflineSalesfaceshort-termheadwindsIn3QFY2023totalsalesofretailandwholesaleoperationsrecordedYoYdeclineofahigh-teenspercentageThemanagementmentionedthatafter-taxincomerecordedYoYdeclineofamid-teenspercentagelessthantheCompanystotalsalesdeclineSinceSeptemberofflineretailsalesoftheCompanyweresignificantlyaffectedbylocalCovid-relateddisruptionOfflineconsumerflowdecreasedbyamid-teenspercentageYoYduring3QFY2023recordingthelowestaveragedailytrafficflowinrecenttwoyearsinNovemberAround20ofitstotalstoreswereundertemporaryclosureduringNovemberSeptemberhigh-single-digitWithconsumerslikelytoremaincautiousintheshorttermthemanagementexpectstheCompanyssalesgrowthtoremainunderpressurein4QFY2023LookingaheadtoFY2024withoptimizedanti-CovidmeasuresrecoveryofconsumerflowandlowbaseeffectweexpecttheCompanyssalesgrowthinFY2024toreboundfromthetrough2raMthgiRelbaTImprovinginventorysetsthestagefortheCompanyssalesrecoveryTheCompanysinventoryasattheendof3QFY2023declinedbyadouble-digitpercentageYoYInventoryturnoverwasslightlyover40xbytheendof3QFY2023closetopre-pandemiclevelsInventoryagingmiximprovedcomparedwiththeendofAugustmainlydrivenbyhighersalesexposuretooff-seasonproductsduring3QFY2023MeanwhileNiketheCompanysbrandpartneralsomentionedonits2QFY2023conferencecallthatitsinventorysituationinChinareturnedtoahealthylevelattheendofNovemberTheCompanysdiscountleveldeepenedbyalowsingledigitpercentageYoYastheproportionofsalesofoff-seasonproductsincreasedTheCompanysinventorylevelremainshealthythankstoitsefficientretailmanagementandbrandpartnersinventorybuybackandsupportiverebatesWebelievethatimprovedinventorylevelandproductmixwillhelptheCompanytobettermatchthenewproductsupplywithmarketdemandinthefutureandthuspromotenewproductssalesinFY2024Resilientomni-channeloperationalperformanceBytheendofNovemberthegrosssellingareaofdirectly-operatedstoresdecreasedby13QoQandby57YoYManagementexpectsslowerstoreclosurepacein2HFY2023In3QFY2023salesgrowthgeneratedfromprivatedomainincreasedto100YoYfrom80YoYin1HFY2023TheCompany06110HKacceleratedtheclosureoflow-productivityandloss-makingstoresdespiteoverallheadwindsintheretailenvironmenttoretaintheflexibilityofstoreopeningandenhancedprivatedomainsalesconversionWeexpecttheCompanysoperatingleverage滔搏andprofitmarginstoimproveastheretailenvironmentrecoversdrivenbyoptimizedCovidcontrolmeasuresTopsportsCatalysts11Substantialrecoveryofofflineconsumption2better-than-expectedimprovementinprincipalbrandsales3moreextensiveandin-depthcooperationwithtopdomesticbrandsRisks1SlowdowninChinassportswearindustrygrowth2resurgenceoflocalCovidepidemicandCovidmutations3ChangesinbrandsDTCstrategiesFigure-1TopsportsPERatioBlended12MonthsFigure-2TopsportsPBRatioBlended12Months2455225020451STD42x181STD176x40163514Average34xAverage143x12301025-1STD110x-1STD26xReport820Oct-19Apr-20Oct-20Apr-21Oct-21Apr-22Oct-22Jun-20Jun-21Jun-22Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Dec-19Aug-20Dec-20Aug-21Dec-21Aug-22Dec-22Apr-20Oct-20Apr-21Oct-21Apr-22Oct-22Jun-20Jun-21Jun-22Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Dec-20Dec-22Dec-19Dec-21Aug-20Aug-21Aug-22PERAverage1STD-1STDPBRAverage1STD-1STDCompanySourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of5TablePageHeaderTopsports06110HKTable-1KeyAssumptionsandAdjustmentsOLDNEW1raMthCHANGEgiRelbaTRMBmn2023F2024F2025F2023F2024F2025F2023F2024F2025FRevenue301823400037309277513225136154815131Grossprofit131201481316330120631405115752815135Operatingprofit326938544248302736694087744838Shareholdersprofit230827633055212926262936785039BasicEPSRMB03720446049303430423047378503926December2022Grossmargin43543643843543643600ppt00ppt02pptAPofturnover29329029029329028900ppt00ppt01pptSGAofturnover42404042404000ppt00ppt00pptOperatingmargin10811311410911411301ppt01ppt01pptNetmargin76818277818101ppt00ppt01pptSourceGuotaiJunanInternationalTable-2PeersComparisonTableMarketEVGrossOperatingCompanyStockLastCapPExPBxROEDYEBITDAxMarginMarginCodeCurrencypriceHKDmn21A22F23F24F21A22F23F24F22F22F22F22F22F2raMthgiRelbaT06110HKHKD632039192132156128111303229262034968438107Topsports03813HKHKD072038358721259410404040420051235522PouShengFLUSUSD34780253204078837710101009134453931773FootLockerDKSUSUSD1088407082260919083393831234531849349123DicksJDSportsJDLNGBp1197005838516795958832241915293043949010702020HKHKD1028002789602973082492047872595025414174612210Anta02331HKHKD676501779873513422762256864544619909209506209LiNing01368HKHKD8300218851891791501202222211912730101415125XtepIntlNKEUSUSD116710142450730537329624612012211410432111273439117NikeADSGREUR12462018571811455626417232363434561512247326AdidasSimpleAverage1742391691374442373320620109439112WeightedAverage2733532682189596877927813223465127SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalNoteThefinancialyearenddateofTopsports6110HKandNikeNKEUSisnot31DecemberForeasiercomparisonwithpeers21AmeansFY21Aand22FmeansFY22FandsoonfortheaforementionedcompaniesForTopsports6110HKDicksDKSUSFootLockerFLUSJDSportsJDLNandNikeNKEUS21AmeansFY22Aand22FmeansFY23Fandsoon06110HK滔搏TopsportsReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of5TablePageHeaderTopsports06110HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheetIncomeStatement1BalanceraSheetMthgiRelbaTYearend28FebRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FAsat28FebRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalRevenue3600931877277513225136154Propertyplantandequipment10201009102010261029CostofSales2132818052156881820020402Right-of-useassets36253100331735493797GrossProfit1468113824120631405115752Intangibleassets10901093109310931093DepositsprepaymentsotherSellingDistributionexpenses965594398131935310449receivables266309325341358Administrativeexpenses12431293116612901446Deferredincometaxassets26630532033635326December2022Otherincomeandgains206338260260230Long-termpledgedbankdeposits10001000000OperatingProfit39893430302736694087TotalNon-currentAssets72666816607563456630CashCashEquivalents12291753351232823831Financeexpensesnet139104150120120Inventories62116686713170007287ProfitBeforeTax38513326287735493967Tradereceivables21771107138816131808IncomeTax10818807489231032Otherreceivables8231435152116121709ProfitAfterTax27702447212926262936TotalCurrentAssets1044010980135511350614634Non-controllingInterest00000TotalAssets1770617796196251985021264ShareholdersProfitLoss27702447212926262936BasicEPS04470395034304230473Tradepayables4459276827007852raMthgiRelbaTOtherpayablesaccrualsandliabilities15161645176018832015Short-termborrowings13375181500500500Leaseliabilities-current13201086118712701358TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementCurrentincometaxliabilities807697731768806Yearend28FebRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalCurrentLiabilities54264873586151215464Profitbeforetaxation38513326287735493967DA26042497259727402889Deferredincometaxliabilities246372391418447Otheradjustments170201150120120Leaseliabilities23291970215423032464WCChange96856895660379TotalNon-currentLiabilities25752342254427212911Incometaxpaid950903710875981CashfromOperatingActivities47065690395854735617TotalLiabilities80017215840578438375PurchaseofPPE643716650650650TotalShareholdersEquity970610582112201200812889Otherinvestingactivities274145100000MinorityInterest00000CashfromInvestingActivities2098671350650650TotalEquity97061058211220120081288906110HKPaymentsforleaseliabilities19602117195820952242TableFinancialRatio滔搏Interestpaidforbankborrowings8122150120120FinancialRatiosDividendspaid365915501490183820552021A2022A2023F2024F2025FOtherinvestingactivities269880598210000GrossMargin408434435436436CashfromFinancingActivities83984494261750544417OperatingMargin111108109114113TopsportsNetMargin7777778181CashatBegofYear28241229175335123282ROE274241195226236NetChangesinCash15955241691230550ROA139138114133143ForeignExchangeEffect006800ROCE210277227188220CashatEndofYear12291753351232823831PayoutRatio14331090700700700InventoryDays11001304160714171278ACReceivableDays186188164170173ACPayableDays133139187139133NetGearing11NetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashCurrentRatiox1923232627SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionFinancialTableFinancialRatioRatioSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of5TablePageHeaderTopsports06110HKCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutral26December2022Reduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearch06110HKReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanies滔搏DISCLAIMERTopsportsThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2022GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReservedReport27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of5