研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus23December2022TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus新闻焦点今NewsFocus行业和公司焦点晨IndustryandCompanyFocus焦ResearchNil无点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变EnergySectorReportWhatInvestorsLikelyOperationsOverlookedAmidExpectationsof--Outperform--NSectorOngoingSolarPVCostReduction行业报告在预期光伏持续降本之际投能源运营行业--跑赢大市--否资者可能忽视了什么证TelecommunicSectorReportLeadersofDigital--Outperform--N券ationsSectorEconomyOutperform研通信行业行业报告数字经济领航者跑赢大市--跑赢大市--否告究报报AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports告究后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版EquityResearchReport研券HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000证140002900027000120002500010000230002100080001900017000600015000400013000110002000Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22SourceBloombergSourceBloombergSeethelastpagefordisclaimer1of7MorningResearchFocusPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover1967922271101469660532恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE67163233377340031070国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE4210534613438000031968116科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEwasrecordedasatDec21PleasesubscribeGTJAIResearchandanalystsWechatsubscriptionaccount国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究PleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJNewsFocus新闻焦点TableNewsFocusMarketNews市场新闻USRealGDProse32QoQinthethirdquarterbeatingmarketexpectationsofa29risewithpreviousvalueof26美国第三季度实际GDP年化季环比终值升32超出市场预期的升29初值为26USpersonalsavingsratewas23inOctoberclosetotheall-timelowof21reachedinJuly2005HighpricescausedbyhighinflationhavemadeithardforAmericanstosavemoneywiththepersonalsavingsratenearrecordlows高通胀造成的高物价让美国民众存钱变得很难美国个人储蓄率接近历史低点美国10月个人储蓄率为23已接近2005年7月出现的历史最低点21Seethelastpagefordisclaimer2of7MorningResearchFocusIndustryTableFocusandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsSectorReportEnergyOperationsSectorWhatInvestorsLikelyOverlookedAmidExpectationsofOngoingSolarPVCostReductionRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystPeterShaoReportDate2022-12-22SummaryTheconsistentpricedeclinesofmajorsolarproductssinceNovemberhaveledtogrowingexpectationsofaninflectionpointinsolarPVcostreductionLatestdatafromPVinfolinkshowthatpricesofmajorsolarproductssuchaspolysiliconwaferandcellhavegenerallydeclinedbyover8sinceNov2022asattheendof14Dec2022AlthoughPVmodulepricesshowedresilienceonlydownbyaround3duringthesameperiodwebelievethereremainsroomforfurtherpricedeclineasproductioncapacitiesintheupstreamcontinuetorampupinfactpreliminarydatashowthatpricesofPVmodulesfurtherfell25-36wowfortheweekendedon21Dec2022OurA-shareutilityteamestimatesthatforeveryRMB01WdeclineinPVmodulecosttheIRRofasolarprojectwouldincreaseby05pptassumingutilisationhoursof1200AsthemarketdigeststhecurrentdownwardtrendinsolarcomponentcosttwomajorbeneficiariescouldremainundertheradartheyareLongyuanPower00916HKhereafterLYPandDatangRenewable01798HKhereafterDTRwhicharetraditionallyrecognisedasleadingwindpowerfirmsInfactwhilethetwocompaniescurrentlyhavelimitedexposureinsolarpowerbotharewellontracktorampuptheirsolarbusinessesduringthe14thFiveYearPlanperiodForexamplefromJan2021toJun2022LYPthroughcompetitivebiddingobtaineddevelopmentquotatotaling2407GWamongwhichnearly60belongtosolarprojectsincludingdistributedsolarprojectsduring1H22DTRobtaineddevelopmentquotaof181GWinsolarhigherthanthatof082GWinwindAssuchbothcompaniesareimmediatebeneficiariesoflowersolarPVcostsespeciallygiventheshortconstructioncycleofsolarprojectsHoweverwebelievethetwoleadingwindpowerplaysvaluationscurrentlydonotcontainapremiumassociatedwiththeexpectationofongoingsolarPVcostreductionLookingaheadtheircontinuedramp-upofsolarbusinessescouldbeavaluationcatalystasthebenefitbroughtbysolarPVcostreductionbecomesmoreapparentSectorReportTelecommunicationsSectorLeadersofDigitalEconomyOutperformRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystGinYuReportDate2022-12-22SummaryAsleadersofdigitaleconomytelecomoperatorsstrategicallydeploydigitalservicesWiththeuniqueadvantagesincloudnetworkcomputingpoweranddatasecurityoperatorshavemadeextensiveattemptsinthedirectionofdigitalservicesMeanwhiletheadvantagesingovernmentandenterprisechannelspromotethegrowthofoperatorsindustrialdigitalizationbusinesseswhiletheToBbusinessinthe5GeraisexpectedtoopenupnewbusinessvaluemeasurementmethodsOperatorsgrasptheexplosivegrowthtrendofcomputingpowerdemandandfocusoninvestingincomputingpowernetworkconstructionOperatorsbuildcomputingpowernetworksfromtheaspectsofcomputingpowersupplycomputingpowerservicesandcomputingpowermanagementThecomputingpowernetworkhasbecomethefocusofoperatorscapitalexpendituresOperatorspromotethedevelopmentofdigitalservicesthroughinvestmentMAspin-offsandseparatelistingsOperatorsuseinvestmentandMAtorealizetheadvantagesofoperatorresourcesandexpandinnovativeservicesSeethelastpagefordisclaimer3of7MorningResearchFocustherebycreatingnewbusinessgrowthpointsspinningofftheirdigitalbusiness-relatedsubsidiariescanstrengthenfinancingcapabilitiesandoperationalflexibilityanditisexpectedthatoperatorswillcontinuetoexecutespin-offandseparatelistingoftheirsubsidiariesinthefutureTheincreasingproportionofdigitalbusinessrevenuehasbecomethemaindrivingforceforoperatorsrevenuegrowthTheproportionofoperatorsemergingbusinessrevenuetototalrevenuehasbeenrisingandthegrowthrateissignificantlyhigherthanthegrowthrateofoveralltelecombusinessrevenueOperatorshavemadeeffortsonthegovernmentandenterprisesideinrecentyearsrelyingonstrongchannelsandpowerfulcomputingpowerresourcestorapidlydevelopbusinessDigitalbusinessessuchascloudcomputingandIDCalreadyhavearelativelylargescaleWegiveanOutperformratingDuetoitsuniquepipelineandchanneladvantagesstrongcloudnetworkresourceadvantagesanddifferentiatedadvantagessuchassecurityreliabilityandlocalizedservicesoperatorsarerealizingthetransformationfrominformationpipelineintodigitalcomprehensivesolutionprovidersWerecommendChinaMobile00941HKChinaTelecom00728HKandChinaUnicom00762HKRiskWarningTheprogressofdigitalbusinessmaymissexpectationsdigitalbusinessmaynotboostprofitsasmuchasexpectedChineseTranslation中文翻译TableFocuschi行业和公司焦点Nil无TableLatestchi最新报告行业报告能源运营行业在预期光伏持续降本之际投资者可能忽视了什么评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员邵俊樨报告日期2022-12-22报告摘要11月以来主要光伏产品价格持续下跌加强了市场对于光伏降本拐点已现的预期据PVinfolink最新数据自2022年11月以来截至2022年12月14日硅料硅片和电池片等主要光伏产品的价格普遍录得超过8的跌幅虽然同期光伏组件价格展现出了韧性仅下降3左右但我们认为随着上游产能持续释放光伏组件价格仍有一定下降空间初步数据显示截至2022年12月21日当周光伏组件价格环比进一步下降25-36据我们A股公用事业团队测算光伏组件价格每下降人民币01元瓦光伏项目资本金收益率将增加05个百分点假设利用小时数为1200在市场消化当前光伏降本趋势之际我们认为有两个主要受益标的仍未被广泛关注它们是龙源电力00916HK和大唐新能源01798HK在传统认知上这两家公司是领先的风电公司事实上尽管这两家公司目前光伏业务体量十分有限但它们都计划在十四五期间大幅增加光伏业务例如2021年1月至2022年6月间龙源电力在竞争配置中获得共计2407吉瓦开发指标其中近6成属于光伏项目包括分布式光伏项目在2022年上半年中大唐新能源共获得了181吉瓦光伏开发指标高于风电的082吉瓦因此两家公司都是光伏降本的即时受益者尤其是考虑到光伏项目较短的建设周期但目前来看我们认为两家领先风电公司的估值中并未包含与光伏持续降本预期相关的溢价往后看两家公司不断壮大的光伏业务有望催化估值因为光伏降本带来的收益将更为直观Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of7MorningResearchFocus行业报告通信行业数字经济领航者跑赢大市评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员余劲同报告日期2022-12-22报告摘要运营商作为数字化经济领航者战略化布局数字化业务运营商凭借云网和算力以及数据安全方面得天独厚的优势在数字化业务方向开展了广泛布局和尝试同时政企渠道优势助推运营商产业数字化业务成长此外5G时代ToB业务有望打开新的业务价值量计量方式运营商把握算力需求爆发性增长趋势重点投资算力网络建设运营商持续加码从算力供给算力服务算力管理方面前瞻性布局算力网络建设算力网络已成为运营商资本开支中的重点运营商通过投资并购分拆上市助推数字化业务发展运营商利用投资并购进行运营商资源优势变现实践创新业务从而创造业务新增长点通过分拆其数字化业务相关子公司的方式来强化融资能力和运营灵活性预计未来运营商会继续推进旗下子公司的独立分拆上市数字化业务占收比不断攀升已成为运营商营收增长的主要拉动力运营商新兴业务收入占总收入的比例不断上升增速大幅高于整体电信业务收入增速运营商近年于政企端发力依托强势渠道和强大算力资源快速展开业务云计算IDC等数字化业务已具备较大规模体量我们给予跑赢大市评级由于其特有的管道和渠道优势强大的云网资源优势以及安全可信和属地化服务等差异化优势运营商正在实现从信息管道的角色向数字化综合解决方案商的转型我们推荐中国移动00941HK中国电信00728HK和中国联通00762HK风险提示数字化业务进展不及预期数字化业务对利润的拉动不及预期Seethelastpagefordisclaimer5of7MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Computer计算机danieltaogtjascomhk8675523976885EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer6of7MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKGREENTOWNCHINA03900HKKINGSOFT03888HKASYMCHEM-HSHARES06821HKSENSETIME-W00020HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKCHERVON02285HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2022GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer7of7