10日工业硅震荡偏强，主力2311收于14265元/吨，日内涨幅1.67%，持仓量减仓2608手至54322手。百川硅参考价15570元/吨，较昨日持平。其中#553各地价格区间涨至14550-15550元/吨，#421价格区间涨至16100-16500元/吨。最低交割品#421价格涨至14100元/吨，现货升水60元/吨转为贴水85元/吨。国庆期间无外盘影响，节后继续遵循内盘逻辑运行。随着临近换月期，在现货端还存在较强支撑下，短期期价有望向现货逐步回归，存在阶段上调的可能；但11月仓单集中注销，市场关注焦点由现货转移至当月仓单去向，届时盘面压力化为隐藏供给释放，同时下游对硅价触底后，将敲响中长线价格回调的警钟。建议投资者短期内警惕期限回归风险，提前进行移仓换月的准备，后续做好仓位管理、择机逢高布空。

研究报告全文：工业硅日报工业硅日报2023年10月11日一研究观点点评10日工业硅震荡偏强主力2311收于14265元吨日内涨幅167持仓量减仓2608手至54322手百川硅参考价15570元吨较昨日持平其中553各地价格区间涨至14550-15550元吨421价格区间涨至16100-16500元吨最低交割品421价格涨至14100元吨现货升水60元吨转为贴水85元吨国庆期间无外盘影响节后继续遵循内盘逻辑运行随着临近换月期在现货端还存在较强支撑下短期期价有望向现货逐步回归存在阶段上调的可能但11月仓单集中注销市场关注焦点由现货转移至当月仓单去向届时盘面压力化为隐藏供给释放同时下游对硅价触底后将敲响中长线价格回调的警钟建议投资者短期内警惕期限回归风险提前进行移仓换月的准备后续做好仓位管理择机逢高布空请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES1工业硅日报二日度数据监测硅202310102023109涨跌SI00GFE1418514040145期货结算价元吨SI01GFE1426514155110不通氧553硅华东14850148500不通氧553硅黄埔港14750147500不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港14650146500元吨不通氧553硅昆明14700147000不通氧553硅四川14550145500不通氧553硅上海15100151000通氧553硅华东15400154000通氧553现货价格通氧553硅黄埔港15400154000元吨通氧553硅天津港15300153000通氧553硅昆明15550155500421硅华东16100161000421硅有机硅用华东16500165000421硅黄埔港16300163000421现货价格元421硅天津港16250162500吨421硅昆明16150161500421硅有机硅用昆明16500165000421硅四川16450164500无锡杭州为基准交割区域天津贴水100元吨广州贴水150元吨昆明贴水500元吨乌鲁木齐贴水700元吨不通氧553硅华东14850148500不通氧553硅黄埔港14900149000不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港14750147500元吨不通氧553硅昆明15200152000市场行情不通氧553硅四川15100151000421硅华东16100161000421硅有机硅用华东16500165000421硅黄埔港16450164500421现货价格元421硅天津港16350163500吨421硅昆明16650166500421硅有机硅用昆明17000170000421硅四川17000170000现货553与421价差155015500按广期所421升水2000元吨的价差设定当前最低交割品价格14100141000现货升贴水-8560-145下游DMC华东市场14500145000DMC东岳有机硅000DMC合盛硅业14500145000有机硅元吨生胶14500145000107胶14800148000二甲基硅油16000160000复投料单晶用81000810000多晶硅元吨致密料单晶用79000790000菜花料单晶用77000770000硅片元片单晶M6M10G122882893852983405-010-011-020电池片元瓦单晶M6M10G12061061067061062067000-001000单晶perc单面1661822101131212311312123000000000光伏组件元瓦单晶perc双面166182210114121124114121124000000000本周上周涨跌黄埔港30000280002000天津港3400035000-1000工业硅吨社会昆明港18000160002000库存厂库61440532408200DMC吨厂库49000442004800多晶硅吨厂库6115072250-11100资料来源SMM百川盈孚iFindGFE光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES2工业硅日报三图表分析31工业硅及成本端价格图表1工业硅各牌号价格元吨图表2牌号价差单位元吨金属硅553昆明港金属硅553通氧昆明港金属硅421昆明港通氧553-不通氧553421-55370000350006000030000500002500040000200003000015000200001000010000500000-5000202072202115202123202327202338202347202369202398202052202189202197202211202359202367202376202384202394202073120208312020929202011520201242021311202141220215142021615202171420218122021910202211820222232022324202242620225302022629202272820228262022927202211220221212023511202371220238102020531202062920207282020826202092420211182021216202131720214152021514202161220217112021106202111420211232022130202222820223292022427202252620226242022723202282120229192023113202321120233122023410202310320201023202011212020122020221018202211162022121520211020202111182021121720221230图表3地域价差单位元吨图表4用电价格元度553硅天津港-昆明港421硅天津港-昆明港用电价新疆用电价云南德宏用电价四川凉山10000078000066000054000042000030-200002-400001-600002020722020832020922022812022122022232022372022482023152023262023812023922021113202121920213232021423202152820216302021730202183120221122022218202232220224252022530202263020228312022119202212920231112023217202332120234212023526202362920237312023830202310920221182022219202232320224242022510202252620226112022627202271320227292022814202283020229152022101202211220221242023121202322220233102023326202341120234272023513202352920236142023630202371620238172023918202310420201012202011112020121120211011202111102021121020221010202210172022111820221220图表5硅石价格元吨图表6精煤价格元吨硅石湖北硅石云南硅石江西硅煤宁夏硅煤新疆硅煤陕西硅煤贵州80040007003500600300050025004002000300150020010001005000020207220208620213420214820226220227720232220233920218220224120226620229220237720221320232320235220209102021617202182620219302021114202112920222172022428202281120234132023622202372720238312023105202112820215132021722202211320223242022915202351820218242021915202221620223102022515202262820229242023112202322520233192023410202361520239112023103202110720221252022423202272020228112022117202352420237292023820202010152020122420221020202212292020111920221124202111202021121220221129202212212022101620211029资料来源百川盈孚光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES3工业硅日报32下游产成品价格图表7DMC价格元吨图表8有机硅产成品价格元吨DMC市场均价DMC合盛硅业浙江有机硅生胶市场均价有机硅107胶市场均价有机硅二甲基硅油市场均价70000700006000060000500005000040000400003000030000200002000010000100000020207220221420222220223320224120237920238720239920207220212320216320219720221520225520228920229220234620238420207312020829202092720211212021219202132020214182021517202161520217142021812202191020211092021117202112620224302022529202262720227262022824202292220231162023214202331520234132023512202361020231082020726202081920209122020106202111020212272021323202141620215102021627202172120218142021101202212920222222022318202241120225292022622202271620229262022127202312420232172023313202343020235242023617202371120238282023921202010262020112420201223202210212022111920221218202010302020112320201217202110252021111820211212202210202022111320221231图表9多晶硅价格元吨图表10硅片价格美元片元片多晶硅复投料单晶用多晶硅致密料单晶用多晶硅菜花料单晶用硅片单晶M6市场参考价硅片多晶166mm175m欧洲硅片单晶166mm175m欧洲35000080908300000707625000006520000005415000004303100000202500001010002021922022292022312022692022882023242023452023642023832021812021982022272022452022612022792022942023232023412023592023752021922202111120221202022321202241020224302022520202262920227192022828202291720221072022126202311520232242023316202342520235152023624202371420238232023912202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