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>> 国泰君安-传播文化行业:期待已久的技术创新有望重塑传媒行业的生态结构,“跑赢大市”-230327
上传日期:   2023/3/28 大小:   1236KB
格式:   pdf  共8页 来源:   国泰君安
评级:   -- 作者:   林荣叶
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GICS分类的传媒及娱乐板块的估值在利好因素的推动下强劲反弹,过去两周的板块市值加权平均股价表现位居榜首,涨幅达到10.2%。我们认为,传媒及娱乐板块的估值主要受AIGC技术革新的利好消息以及游戏行业复苏预期强化的推动。从子赛道来看,传媒及娱乐板块的涨幅主要来自互动媒体和服务,其赛道的市值加权平均涨幅为10.9%。除了有线和卫星电视以及广播子行业外,其他子行业的表现与整体市场表现相当。
   AIGC技术在短时间内迅速迭代,新一代ChatGPT不仅在准确性上有显著提高,还可以直接协助许多专业领域的内容分析和创作。顶级的科技巨头都在部署各自的AIGC发展战略,预计竞争将进一步推动技术的迭代速度。除了GPT-4外,Stable Diffusion和Midjourney等AI绘画工具以及Runway等AI视频工具也在持续取得突破。游戏和影视行业是当前AIGC技术能迅速落实应用的典型领域。
   AIGC技术可能将对影视制作进行重塑。随着视觉效果在PGC制作中的重要性不断提高,相关劳动力成本也在增加。受惠于AIGC技术加速迭代,人工智能有潜力取代视觉效果阶段中一些劳动密集型流程以实现降本增效。此外,AIGC的应用可能直接革新中国动画电影的内容制作,行业相关公司预计将从行业的发展中受益。对于制作规模较小的PUGC和UGC内容而言,从利用ChatGPT的能力写脚本到使用AI视频工具一键生成,如今已经涌现出一批新工具可以为创作者所用。我们认为,在中国影视行业具领先地位的中国儒意(00136 HK)和猫眼娱乐(01896 HK)将受益于当前技术和行业的发展。
研究报告全文:股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportMediaCultureSectorTeddyLin林荣叶行业报告传播文化行业8675523976692rongyelingtjascomhk27March2023LongTableMainInfo-AwaitedTechnologicalInnovationExpectedtoReshapetheEcologyoftheMediaIndustryMaintainOutperform行期待已久的技术创新有望重塑传媒行业的生态结构跑赢大市业ThevaluationoftheGICS-classifiedmediaentertainmentsectorhas报reboundedstronglyamidfavorablefactorsanditrankedfirstintermsofRatingTableInvestInfoOutperformsectormarketcap-weightedaverageshareperformanceinthepasttwoMaintained告SectorReportweeks102InourviewthevaluationofthemediaentertainmentsectorwasmainlydrivenbypositivenewsregardingAIGCtechnologicalinnovationand评级跑赢大市维持thestrengthenedexpectationofrecoveryofthegameindustryBysubsector2growthofthemediaentertainmentsectorwasmainlycontributedbytheinteractivemediaservicessub-sectorwithamarketcap-weightedaverageMediasectorperformancevsHangincreaseof109Othersub-sectorsexceptforcablesatelliteandSengIndexbroadcastingperformedinlinewiththeoverallmarket传媒行业表现vs恒生指数WithinashortperiodAIGCtechnologyhasrapidlydevelopedThenew20ofreturnChatGPTchatbotnotonlyshowssignificantimprovementinaccuracyfrom10previousgenerationsbutcanalsodirectlyassistincontentanalysisand0creationinmanyfieldsofprofessionToptechgiantsarelayingouttheirAIGCdevelopmentstrategiesandcompetitionisexpectedtofurtherdrivespeedof-10证technologicaldevelopmentInadditiontoGPT-4AIpaintingtoolslikeStable-20告券DiffusionandMidjourneyaswellasAIvideotoolslikeRunwayhavecontinued-30研报tomakebreakthroughsThegameindustryandfilmandtelevisionindustry-40areprimeexamplesofapplicationareaswhereAIGCispoisedtomake究究rapidadvancements-50Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Mar-23ResearchReportHSIMediaculturesector报研AIGChasthepotentialtoreshapethefilmandtelevisionindustryattheproductionlevelAstheimportanceofvisualeffectsinPGCproductionSourceiFind告券continuestoriserelatedlaborcostshavealsoincreasedAsAIGCacceleratesEquitySubsectorperformanceofmediavsitsdevelopmentAIhasthepotentialtoreplacecertainlabor-intensiveprocesses证inthevisualeffectsarenaandachievecostreductionandefficiencyHangSengTECHIndeximprovementAlsotheapplicationsmaydirectlyrevolutionizecontent传媒板块子行业表现vs恒生科技指数80ofreturnproductionofChineseanimatedfilmsandrelatedpartiesareexpectedtobenefitfromtheindustrysdevelopmentForPUGCandUGCwithsmallerproduction60scaleandsizeabatchofnewtoolshasemergedthatcreatorscanusefrom40usingChatGPTsabilitytowritescriptstogeneratingvideoswithAIvideotoolsTwithjustoneclickWebelievethatChinaRuyi00136HKandMaoyan20aEntertainment01896HKwhichholdleadingpositionsintheChinesefilm0andtelevisionindustrywillbenefitfromthecurrenttechnologyandtheb-20传developmentoftheindustry-40播lGICS分类的传媒及娱乐板块的估值在利好因素的推动下强劲反弹过去两周的板块市值加权平均股价表现位居榜首涨幅达到102我们认为传媒及娱乐板块的估值主要受AIGC-60文eMar-22Apr-22May-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Mar-23技术革新的利好消息以及游戏行业复苏预期强化的推动从子赛道来看传媒及娱乐板块的HSTECHMedia化EntertainmentInteractiveMediaServices行涨幅主要来自互动媒体和服务其赛道的市值加权平均涨幅为109除了有线和卫星电视SourceiFInd以及广播子行业外其他子行业的表现与整体市场表现相当业LeAIGC技术在短时间内迅速迭代新一代ChatGPT不仅在准确性上有显著提高还可以直接MediaCultureSector协助许多专业领域的内容分析和创作顶级的科技巨头都在部署各自的AIGC发展战略预计f竞争将进一步推动技术的迭代速度除了GPT-4外StableDiffusion和Midjourney等AI绘t画工具以及Runway等AI视频工具也在持续取得突破游戏和影视行业是当前AIGC技术能迅速落实应用的典型领域MAIGC技术可能将对影视制作进行重塑随着视觉效果在PGC制作中的重要性不断提高相a关劳动力成本也在增加受惠于AIGC技术加速迭代人工智能有潜力取代视觉效果阶段中一r些劳动密集型流程以实现降本增效此外AIGC的应用可能直接革新中国动画电影的内容制作行业相关公司预计将从行业的发展中受益对于制作规模较小的PUGC和UGC内容而g言从利用ChatGPT的能力写脚本到使用AI视频工具一键生成如今已经涌现出一批新工i具可以为创作者所用我们认为在中国影视行业具领先地位的中国儒意00136HK和猫眼娱乐01896HK将受益于当前技术和行业的发展nSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of8SestockpricetheofTVBafteritswithcollaborationTaobaowasearlierannounced01045HKwhilethedeclineinthebroadcastingsubtheindeclineThemarketoverallthewithofprospectssubthisofrecoveryriseof209IGGBilibiliasincreasessuchsignificantshownhavemediasubservicesmediasubsectorBy24secondarysectorstheContentGeneratedofentertainmediaclassifiedGICSshowedasignificantreboundwhichbyrose102intheStandardspasttwoweeks10MarClassificationIndustryGlobaltheofperformanceshareaverageperformancesectoroftermsinfirstrankeditandfactorsfavorabletheofvaluationthedownturnsignificantaexperiencingAfterTheFigureNoteThemarketcapmarketNoteTheInternationalGuotaiJunanSourceiFinDethe-thsectorhasseenaaseenhassectorMediaelaseinetimnscowsanyrvnyoiieeseadntenoaieehooyfAIGCoftechnologyinnovativetheregardingnewspositivebydrivenmainlywassectorentertainmentmedia-1tpagPerformanceoftheoferformancerecoveryofofrecoveryefotCulturerehrpromneofperformancesharehedisclaimer1012-6-4-2-0079900799HK02468weightedaverageshareperformanceshareaverageweighted-andtheexpectedrecoveryofthevideogameindustryvideogametheofrecoveryexpectedtheandsubsectormarketcapmarket-thegamthesectorSector102MediaEntertainmentoutwaperformingperformingSoftwareServiceswithariseof150andBaidumildeohpstvnwoAGtcnlgclnoainnteincreasingltheandinnovationtechnologicalAIGCofnewspositivethetoduemainlysmediaentertainmentsectorrankedevrhpstoweekstwopasttheOverTechnologyHardwareEquipment-TooktheLeadinStockPerformanceweightedaverageweightedindustryOthersubOtherindustrySemiconductorsSemiconductorHealthCareEquipmentServic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