研究报告全文：股票研究TableTitleEquityResearchResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus28March2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨Nil无焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变2022ResultsinLine2023ChinaPowerRenewablesCapacityGrowthTarget02380HKHK410Buy--YInternationalMissedButTransformationStoryRemainsIntact2022年业绩符合预期2023年新能源装中国电力02380HK机增长目标不及预期但转型故事仍然完HK410买入--是好证HighDividendPayoutRatioGrowth告券ChinaMobile00941HKCloudandDataFactorsBringNewHK7800Buy--Y报OpportunitiesBuy研派息率高增长云和数据要素带来新机中国移动00941HKHK7800买入--是究究会买入RevenueIncreasedSignificantlyYoY报Geely研00175HKNewEnergyStrategyDroveBrandHK1333--Buy--YAutomobile告PremiumizationMaintainBuy券EquityResearchReport营收同比大增新能源战略驱动品牌高端吉利汽车00175HKHK1333--买入--是证化维持买入SectorReportBi-WeeklyWrapConstructionInfrastructureInvestmentStatisticsEngineering--Outperform--NforFirstTwoMonthsWereSectorOutstanding行业报告双周报首2月基建投资数据建筑工程行业--跑赢大市--否表现亮丽SectorReportLong-AwaitedMediaTechnologicalInnovationExpectedto--Outperform--NCultureSectorReshapetheEcologyoftheMediaIndustryMaintainOutperform行业报告期待已久的技术创新有望重传播文化行业--跑赢大市--否塑传媒行业的生态结构维持跑赢大市SectorReportWeeklyWrapTelecommunicOperatorsCAPEXStabilizing--Outperform--NationsSectorInvestmentinComputingPowerNetworksHasBecomeaFocus行业报告周报运营商资本开支趋稳通信行业--跑赢大市--否算力网络投资成为重点China2022ResultsinLineExpectingResources00291HKPremiumizationTrendtoSeeHK7250Buy--YBeerAccelerationin2023MaintainBuy2022年业绩符合预期2023年高端化进华润啤酒00291HKHK7250买入--是程有望加速维持买入SectorReportBi-WeeklyWrapFoodSubsectorsSeeBuyingOpportunityBeverage--Outperform--NBasedonSequentialRecoveryofSectorDomesticConsumptionSentiment行业报告双周报国内消费情绪持续回食品饮料行业--跑赢大市--否升细分赛道迎来布局良机Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of12MorningResearchFocusTypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题MacroeconomicChinaHowIsthePropertyMarketDoing27March2023AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900012000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Mar23Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Mar23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover1956769-1751271961077976恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE664868-215426442921070国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE410569-2823621600034947800科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasatMar24PleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of12MorningResearchFocusIndustryTableFocusandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsChinaPowerInternational02380HK2022ResultsinLine2023RenewablesCapacityGrowthTargetMissedButTransformationStoryRemainsIntactRatingBuy6-18mTPHK410AnalystPeterShaoReportDate2023-03-27Summary2022resultsinlineCPIDrecordedearningsofRMB2648mnin2022vsnetlossofRMB256mnin2021inlinewiththepreviouspositiveprofitalertTheresultsweredraggeddownbycontinuedbutnarrowedthermallossandweakerresultsfromthehydropowersegmentwhileboostedbyone-offacquisitiongainofaroundRMB15bnCPIDsnewenergybusinesscontinuedtodeliverprofitgrowthwithwindandsolarreportingearningsofRMB1345mn473yoyandRMB782mn389yoyrespectivelyBrighterearningsoutlookfor2023ForCPIDsthermalsegmentweexpectaturnaroundthisyearinlightof1thedisposaloftwoloss-makingthermalpowerplantslastyear2thestart-upofthestate-of-the-artShentouPowerPlantIIProject2GWsince2H22and3theexpectedimprovementincontractcoalfulfilmentthisyeardrivenbyCPIDsstrategicpartnershipwithcoalcompaniesIntermsofthenewenergybusinessweexpectcontinuedgrowthasCPIDplanstobuild7GWofnewcapacityin2023Meanwhile2023couldseeCPIDsenergystoragebusinesstakingoffwiththeCompanysmanagementguidingthesegmentsrevenueofaboutRMB600mn57xyoyandnetprofitofaroundRMB50mn136xyoythisyearTransformationstoryremainsintactdespitelower-than-expectedrenewablesgrowthtargetfor2023CPIDguided2023newenergycapacityadditionof7GWlowerthanourexpectationof12GWInlate2021CPIDsmanagementtoldanalyststhattheCompanyintendstokeep8GWofthermalcapacitybytheendof2025IfsuchguidanceisunchangedCPIDwillhavetoadd45GWofrenewablescapacityin2024-2025tomeetits2025greentransformationtarget90ofinstalledcapacityincleanenergyquitechallenginginourviewWethusseeachancethatCPIDmayopttohavelessthan8GWofthermalcapacityby2025toreducethetransformationburdenForexamplewhenCPIDsthermalcapacitydropsfrom8GWto6GWbytheendof2025theamountofwindandsolarcapacitythatCPIDneedstobuildin2024-2025decreasesfrom45GWto27GWthisismoreachievablewhilestillanimpressivetransformationthatboostsCPIDsnewenergycapacitybynearly8-foldduringthe14thFive-YearPlanperiodMaintainBuybutlowerTPtoHK410WecontinuetoviewCPIDstransformationasadynamicprocesswhichisfundamentallyimprovingtheCompanysearningsprofileWecutour2023-2024EPSforecaststoRMB024-177andRMB040-115respectivelyonlowerestimatesofnewenergycapacitygrowthduringtheperiodandintroduce2025EPSforecastofRMB062Weloweroursum-of-the-partsTPtoHK410newenergy90x2023PEthermal06x2023PBhydro120x2023PEMajordownsiderisksUnfavorablepolicychangesworse-than-expecteddarkspreadshigher-than-expectedrawmaterialpricesdelayinprojectroll-outChinaMobile00941HKHighDividendPayoutRatioGrowthCloudandDataFactorsBringNewOpportunitiesBuyRatingBuy6-18mTPHK7800AnalystGinYuReportDate2023-03-27SummaryWeupgradetheTPtoHK7800andmaintaintheinvestmentratingasBuyWeforecastFY23-FY25EPStobeRMB6375RMB6881RMB7431respectivelyDuetothemarginofsafetyfromtherelativelyhighdividendyieldrateandincrementalmarketbroughtaboutbydigitaltransformationweupgradetheTPandmaintaintheinvestmentratingasSeethelastpagefordisclaimer3of12MorningResearchFocusBuyWeexpectsteadyandsustainedgrowthintheCompanysearningsanddividendpayoutChinaMobilesFY22resultswereinlinewithexpectationsServicerevenueincreasedby81yoywhileshareholdersnetprofitwasupby80yoyMeanwhiletheCompanyproposedtoincreasethewholeyeardividendpayoutratioof2022by7pptyoyto67TheCompanyaimstoachieverevenueoverRMB1trillionin2023whileweexpectshareholdersnetprofittoachieveahighsingle-digitpercentageyoygrowthWeexpectthatdividendpayoutratiowillbeover70in2023WeexpectthedevelopmentofDICTbusinesstoexceedmarketexpectationsAlthoughtheCompanyplanstoslightlyreduceitsCAPEXin2023especiallyinconnectivityitplanstoraiseCAPEXoncomputingforceby35yoycombiningchanneladvantagescloud-networkconvergencedatasecurityadvantagesandthecontinuousinvestmentincoretechnologiesweexpectcloudbusinesstobecontinuouslydevelopedWebelievethattheCompanywillpromotethedevelopmentofdata-relatedbusinessfromastrategiclevelwhilethebusinesswillentermoreverticalindustriesthereforeweexpectthatthedatafactormarketwillbringverylargemarketopportunitiesCatalystsIncreaseindividendpayoutratiopromotionofdata-relatedbusinessRiskwarningSlower-than-expectedpromotionofcloudanddata-relatedbusinessesmismatchbetweeninvestmentsandbenefitsGeelyAutomobile00175HKRevenueIncreasedSignificantlyYoYNewEnergyStrategyDroveBrandPremiumizationMaintainBuyRatingBuy6-18mTPHK1333AnalystIvanWuReportDate2023-03-27SummaryMaintainBuywithTPofHK1333Considering1theCompanysscaleproductmatrixandprofitabilityandmarketshareimprovementbroughtbytheacceleratedtransformationofEVsand2thepositiveimpactonbusinessstrategyadjustmentin2023wegivetheCompany2023-2024PEvaluationof19x16xcorrespondingTPisHK1333withupsideof330ofcurrentTPRevenueincreasedsignificantlyyoyandnewenergystrategydrovebrandpremiumizationTheCompanys2022revenueroseby456yoytoRMB14796bnAmongthemZeekrcontributedaboutRMB320bninrevenueDuringtheperiodnetprofitattributabletotheparentcompanywasRMB526bnup85yoyTheCompanysannualNEVpenetrationrateincreasedby167pptsto229VehicleASPjumpedtoRMB85684unitrepresentingayoygrowthof82whichwasattributabletooptimizationofproductstructureTheCompanysnewenergystrategyin2022successfullydrovebrandpremiumizationLynkCobrandhasbecomethefastestChinesehigh-endcarbrandtoexceed800000unitsZeekrhaselevatedChinasBEVluxurybrandtoanewheightbecomingthechampionbrandofBEVsalesofChinasself-ownedbrandaboveRMB300000GloballandscapeshowedresultsandexportsalessoaredIn2022GeelyfurtherdeployeditsoverseasbusinessandachievedremarkableresultsSalesintheMiddleEasternEuropeanandAmericanmarketsallachievedtriple-digityoygrowthAnnualexportwholesalesaleswere198000unitsasurgeof720yoyTheextremelyhigh-endmodelsofZeekrwillentertheEuropeanmarketwhichisexpectedtopromotehighexportgrowthin2023AvarietyofmodelsarereadytolaunchrevenuepervehicleisexpectedtocontinuetoriseIn2023theCompanywilllaunch10modelsincluding3GeelyGalaxyseriesmodelsL7L6E82ZeekrmodelsZeekrXpureelectricsedan2LynkComodels08plug-insedan1GeometrymodelPandamini1JixingmodelG426and1LivanmodelLivan7WeareoptimisticabouttheCompanysnewenergystrategyofpremiumizationofnewmodelsandremainoptimisticaboutthecontinuousincreaseinrevenuepervehicleSectorReportConstructionEngineeringSectorBi-WeeklyWrapInfrastructureInvestmentStatisticsforFirstTwoMonthsWereOutstandingRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystGaryWongReportDate2023-03-27SummaryInvestmentsuggestionsOurtoppicksarecompaniesbenefitingfromthethemesofrealestatesectorrecoveryandcontinuedpushininfrastructureinvestmentespeciallywithmodularintegratedconstructionMiCandbuilding-integratedphotovoltaicsBIPVexposurewhichincludeChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKtargetpriceHK1610Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of12MorningResearchFocusratingBuyChinaStateConstructionDevelopment00830HKtargetpriceHK266ratingBuyReiterateOutperformratingforthesectorSectornewsupdates1AnnouncementofJan-Feb2023Chinafixedassetsinvestmentstatistics2thePeoplesBankofChinatoreducethedepositreserveratioby25basispoints3BPHCsignedaRMB180billionstrategiccooperationagreementwithsixbanksCompanynewsupdates1BroadHomes02163HKissuedprofitwarning2ChinaStateConstructionDevelopment00830HK2022Shareholdersnetprofitincreased445YoYtoHK422million3ChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HK2022Shareholdersnetprofitincreased170YoYtoHK7957millionRisks1Governmentinfrastructurespendingmaybelowerthanexpected2inflationcouldexceedexpectationsandmaycausepolicytightening3worldwidepandemicsituationmightseefluctuationSectorReportMediaCultureSectorLong-AwaitedTechnologicalInnovationExpectedtoReshapetheEcologyoftheMediaIndustryMaintainOutperformRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystTeddyLinReportDate2023-03-27SummaryThevaluationoftheGICS-classifiedmediaentertainmentsectorhasreboundedstronglyamidfavorablefactorsanditrankedfirstintermsofsectormarketcap-weightedaverageshareperformanceinthepasttwoweeks102InourviewthevaluationofthemediaentertainmentsectorwasmainlydrivenbypositivenewsregardingAIGCtechnologicalinnovationandthestrengthenedexpectationofrecoveryofthegameindustryBysubsectorgrowthofthemediaentertainmentsectorwasmainlycontributedbytheinteractivemediaservicessub-sectorwithamarketcap-weightedaverageincreaseof109Othersub-sectorsexceptforcablesatelliteandbroadcastingperformedinlinewiththeoverallmarketWithinashortperiodAIGCtechnologyhasrapidlydevelopedThenewChatGPTchatbotnotonlyshowssignificantimprovementinaccuracyfrompreviousgenerationsbutcanalsodirectlyassistincontentanalysisandcreationinmanyfieldsofprofessionToptechgiantsarelayingouttheirAIGCdevelopmentstrategiesandcompetitionisexpectedtofurtherdrivespeedoftechnologicaldevelopmentInadditiontoGPT-4AIpaintingtoolslikeStableDiffusionandMidjourneyaswellasAIvideotoolslikeRunwayhavecontinuedtomakebreakthroughsThegameindustryandfilmandtelevisionindustryareprimeexamplesofapplicationareaswhereAIGCispoisedtomakerapidadvancementsAIGChasthepotentialtoreshapethefilmandtelevisionindustryattheproductionlevelAstheimportanceofvisualeffectsinPGCproductioncontinuestoriserelatedlaborcostshavealsoincreasedAsAIGCacceleratesitsdevelopmentAIhasthepotentialtoreplacecertainlabor-intensiveprocessesinthevisualeffectsarenaandachievecostreductionandefficiencyimprovementAlsotheapplicationsmaydirectlyrevolutionizecontentproductionofChineseanimatedfilmsandrelatedpartiesareexpectedtobenefitfromtheindustrysdevelopmentForPUGCandUGCwithsmallerproductionscaleandsizeabatchofnewtoolshasemergedthatcreatorscanusefromusingChatGPTsabilitytowritescriptstogeneratingvideoswithAIvideotoolswithjustoneclickWebelievethatChinaRuyi00136HKandMaoyanEntertainment01896HKwhichholdleadingpositionsintheChinesefilmandtelevisionindustrywillbenefitfromthecurrenttechnologyandthedevelopmentoftheindustrySectorReportTelecommunicationsSectorWeeklyWrapOperatorsCAPEXStabilizingInvestmentinComputingPowerNetworksHasBecomeaFocusRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystGinYuReportDate2023-03-27SummaryTotalCAPEXoftelecomoperatorsisstabilizingIn2023ChinaMobilesplannedCAPEXisRMB1832billiondownby11yoyChinaTelecomplanstoincreaseitsCAPEXtoby70yoytoRMB99billionin2023whileChinaUnicomplanstoraiseitsCAPEXby36yoytoreachRMB769billionin2023OverallCAPEXforthethreeoperatorsin2023totalsRMB3591billionupby20yoyindicatingamoderateandreasonabletrendSeethelastpagefordisclaimer5of12MorningResearchFocusInvestmentintraditionalCTbusinesstodeclinewithacleartendencytowardscomputingforcenetworksChinaMobilesinvestmentinCTconnectivityrepresentedby5Gisexpectedtodecreaseby121yoytoRMB1029billionin2023includingRMB83billionin5Gnetwork-relatedinvestmentdownby135yoywith3600005Gbasestationsexpectedtobeopenedin2023reachingacumulativetotalof1645millionstationsChinaTelecomexpectsmobilenetworkinvestmenttodeclineby2yoytoRMB315billionin2023withthenumberofavailable5Gbasestationsreaching122millionin2023whilebroadbandnetworkinvestmentwillalsodeclineby16yoytoRMB155billionin2023ChinaUnicoms5Ginvestmentsin2023isalsoexpectedtodeclineComputingpowernetworkinvestmenthasbecomethefocusoftelecomoperatorsChinaMobileplanstoinvestRMB452billionincomputingpowerin2023anincreaseofRMB117billionfrom2022andplanstoaddmorethan240000newcloudserversand40000externallyavailableIDCcabinetsChinaTelecomsinvestmentinindustrialdigitizationin2023willincreaseby40yoytoRMB38billionofwhichRMB95billionisexpectedtobeinvestedinIDCIDCcabinetstoreach056millionin2023andRMB195billionincomputingpowerChinaUnicoms2023computingnetworkinvestmentisexpectedtobeaboutRMB149billionanincreaseofmorethan20yoyWegiveanOutperformratingWerecommendChinaMobile00941HKChinaTelecom00728HKChinaUnicom00762HKZTE00763HKandBYDElectronic00285HKRiskWarningSlower-than-expectedconstructionofEast-to-WestComputingResourceTransferProject5GdevelopmentandcloudcomputingdevelopmentoftrafficservicesandindustrialinternetapplicationsmaybeslowerthanexpectedChinaResourcesBeer00291HK2022ResultsinLineExpectingPremiumizationTrendtoSeeAccelerationin2023MaintainBuyRatingBuy6-18mTPHK7250AnalystAndyChenReportDate2023-03-27SummaryRaiseTPtoHK7250andmaintaininvestmentratingasBuyWeforecastChinaResourcesBeersCRBortheCompany2023-2025corenetprofittoreachRMB5444mnRMB6353mnRMB7265mnrespectivelyAsthebeersegmenthasbeenfromheadwindtotailwindduetosequentialreboundinconsumerspendingpowerandon-premisechannelsalesweexpectCRBsearningstorecordvisibleYoYgrowthOurnewTPofHK7250isbasedon380x2023FPER2022resultsinlineCRBsrevenuerose56YoYtoRMB35263mnin2022YoYgrowthofsalesvolumeASPwas0452DuetohigherpricesofrawandpackagingmaterialsCRBsgrossmarginfell07pptYoYto385despiteYoYgrowthof126insalesvolumeofsub-premiumsegmentandaboveSDexpensesratioimproved11pptYoYto191Togetherwithlowerincometaxexpensescoreshareholdersprofitwasup26YoYtoRMB4520mninlinewithourexpectationSolidprofitmarginimprovementin2023Accordingtothemanagementsalesvolumecontributionfromsub-premiumsegmentandaboveisexpectedtogrowapproximately4pptYoYto23in2023OverallweexpectCRBtodeliverlowsingle-digitgrowthinvolumeandmidsingle-digitgrowthinASPInthelongrunCRBsroadtopremiumizationwillmoveforwardandnotretreatWeexpectSnowDraftBeerHeinekenseriesandSuperXtoreach100mnklinannualsalesvolumeby2025atdouble-digit3-yearCAGRfrom2022to2025Otherdriversbehindprofitmarginimprovementinclude1pricehikeswillcomeintofulleffectinthePL2mitigatingcostpressureand3optimizingproductioncapacityandoperationalefficiencyielowerSGAexpensesratiosandmorecontrollablenon-recurringlossesWeforecasttheCompanysgrossmarginandnormalizedEBITmargintobothimprove24pptYoYin2023CreatingasecondgrowthcurvebyfurtherdevelopingthebaijiusegmentAccordingtothemanagementsguidanceCRBisexpectedtogeneraterevenuefromthebaijiusegmentatoverRMB10bnyearin3-4yearsdrivenbyamatrixofmajorbrandsincludingGoldenSeedseriesJingzhiseriesandJinshaseriesThemanagementaimstoreshapeitsbaijiubusinessunitsinorganizationalstructurepositioningandbrandbuildingproductdesignandSDchannelmodelWeexpecttheCompanytoachieveadditionalafter-taxnetprofitofoverRMB100mnaftertheconsolidationofJinshaWineryin2023WebelievethatthesynergiestobeunleashedinthelongrunbetweenCRBsbeerandnon-beersegmentareunderestimatedMajorriskfactorsunexpectedpricemovementinrawmaterialsorpackagingcomponentsunfavorableweatherconditionsSeethelastpagefordisclaimer6of12MorningResearchFocusSectorReportFoodBeverageSectorBi-WeeklyWrapSubsectorsSeeBuyingOpportunityBasedonSequentialRecoveryofDomesticConsumptionSentimentRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystAndyChenReportDate2023-03-27SummaryTrendformobilityremainedsolidsuggestingrecoveryofbusinessandeconomicactivitiesinMarchWestaybullishonthegradualrecoveryofmobilityandconsumerspendingpowerin2023Intheshortrunthenextcatalystsinclude1guidancefromcompaniesfor2Q2023-2024growthpathegASPvolumegrowthmarginsand2salesreboundinon-premisechannelsduringtheupcomingLaborDayholidayMaintainOutperformratingfortheFoodBeveragesectorForthebeersubsectorweexpectthatvolumecontributionfromhigh-endsaleswillcontinuetoexpandespeciallyinthepeakseasonof2023AlsomarginalreliefoncostpressurewillstrengthengrossmarginofbreweriesIntheshortruninventoryturnoverofmajorbreweriesremainshealthyOurtoppickisChinaResourcesBeer00291HKwithBuyratingWealsorecommendYanjingBrewery000729SZandTsingtaoBrewery600600SHand00168HKForthenon-alcoholicbeveragesubsectorproductinnovationaswellasnewmarketinginitiativesremainsessentialItwonttakelongtogofromheadwindtotailwindduetoofflinetrafficrecoveryandmoreoutdooractivitiespostthereopeningofthedomesticeconomyWethinkthatthemarketmayremainquitecompetitivewithmoreactiveinvestmentsandnewentrantsBesidesdemandgrowthweseesomepositivesonthecostsideWehaveBuyratingonChinaFoods00506HKwithTPofHK360pershareTingyi00322HKandVitasoy00345HKwillalsobebeneficiariesForthedairysubsectorwerecommendMengniuDairy02319HKKeyrawmilkproducerssuchasYouranDairy09858HKandModernDairy01117HKwillbebeneficiariesaswellMajorriskfactors1Weaker-than-expecteddomesticeconomicgrowthhouseholdincomegrowth2unexpectedpricemovementinrawmaterialsorpackagingcomponentsand3foodsafetyproblemsChinaHowIsthePropertyMarketDoingMacroTeamHaoZhouReportDate2023-03-27SummaryAccordingtoourrecenttalkswithclientsthemarketseemstoholdaconsensusviewthatthepropertymarketwillnotrepeatthe2019-2021boomandanewequilibriumwillbereachedinthenextfewyearsAsthepropertymarketmattersforthemacroperspectivewealsoseetheimportanceofgaugingthedynamicsofthepropertysectorWebelievethatheadlinepropertysaleswillcontinuetoimproveparticularlyconsideringthelowbaseeffectsinearlyQ2duetoCovidlockdownsin2022HoweverthereareafewweakspotswhichhavebeenemergingOursectoranalystnoticedthatpropertysaleshavebeenillustratingsomewhatslowingmomentumrecentlyaccordingtofrontlineresponsefrombothpropertydevelopersandsalesplatformsOurfieldstudyinafewareasinShanghaialsosuggeststhatthepricepremiumofresaleapartmentsagainstnewprojectshasbeendiminishingOurgeneralfeelingisthatpricesofresaleapartmentshavedroppedbyabout10fromthepeakinearly2022InthemeantimesalesofnewapartmentsinShanghaiappeartobecoolingaswellBalancingallthefactorswebelievethattherecoverytrendinChinaspropertysectorwillcontinueoverthenextfewquartersandheadlinepropertysaleswilllikelyimprovemassivelythisyearthankstobaseeffectsHoweveraninvertedV-shapedgrowthtrajectoryismoreorlesswarrantedwhichimpliespolicywillhavetobemoresupportiveinthesecondhalfof2023Seethelastpagefordisclaimer7of12MorningResearchFocusChineseTranslation中文翻译TableFocuschi行业和公司焦点Nil无TableLatestchi最新报告中国移动00941HK派息率高增长云和数据要素带来新机会买入评级买入6-18m目标价HK7800分析员余劲同报告日期2023-03-27报告摘要我们上调目标价至7800港元并维持买入的投资评级我们预测2023-2025财年的每股盈利为人民币637568817431元由于较高股息率带来的安全边际以及数字化转型带来的增量市场我们上调目标价并维持买入的投资评级我们预计公司盈利和派息将稳定持续增长中国移动2022财年业绩符合预期服务收入同比上升81而股东净利同比上升80同时公司计划将2022全年派息率同比提升7个百分点至67公司目标2023年实现营收超人民币万亿元而我们预计股东净利将实现高个位数同比增长我们预计2023年派息率将超过70我们预计DICT业务的发展将超出市场预期尽管公司计划在2023年略微降低资本开支特别是在连接方面但计划将算力资本开支同比增加35结合渠道优势云网络融合数据安全优势以及核心技术的持续投入我们预计云业务会实现持续发展我们认为公司将从战略层面推动数据相关业务的发展业务将进入更多垂直行业因此我们预计数据要素市场将带来非常大的市场机会催化剂派息率的上升数据要素相关业务的推进风险提示云和数据业务推进慢于预期投入与效益不匹配吉利汽车00175HK营收同比大增新能源战略驱动品牌高端化维持买入评级买入6-18m目标价HK1333分析员吴凱翔报告日期2023-03-27报告摘要维持买入目标价1333港元考虑到1公司规模产品矩阵优化和新能源加速转型带来的盈利能力和市场份额提升22023年经营策略调整的积极影响我们给予公司2023-24年19倍16倍PE估值对应目标价1333港元较当前目标价有330上行空间营收同比大增新能源战略驱动品牌高端化公司2022年营业收入同比大增456至人民币14796亿元其中极氪贡献了约人民币320亿元期间实现归母净利润人民币526亿元同比增长85公司全年新能源渗透率大增167个百分点至229单车价格提升至人民币85684元辆同比增长82得益于产品结构优化公司2022年新能源战略成功驱动品牌高端化领克品牌成为最快突破80万辆的中国高端汽车品牌极氪将中国纯电动豪华智能品牌提升至新高度成为中国自主品牌人民币30万元以上纯电动销量冠军品牌全球布局成效显现出口销量猛增吉利汽车2022年海外业务进一步布局并收获丰厚成果销量在中东欧洲和美洲市场均实现三位数的同比增长全年出口批发销量为198万辆同比猛增720极氪高端车型将登陆欧洲市场有望推动2023年出口高增长Seethelastpagefordisclaimer8of12MorningResearchFocus众多车型蓄势待发单车营收有望持续攀升2023年公司将推出10款车型包括吉利品牌的3款银河系列车型L7L6E82款极氪车型极氪X纯电轿车2款领克车型领克08插电轿车1款几何车型熊猫mini1款吉星车型G426和1款睿蓝车型睿蓝7我们看好公司新车型高端化的新能源战略并对持续推高单车营收保持乐观行业报告建筑工程行业双周报首2月基建投资数据表现亮丽评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员黄家玮报告日期2023-03-27报告摘要投资建议我们的首选股为受惠于地产回暖基建投资持续发力主题的公司尤其是具备组装合成法及光伏建筑一体化工程能力的公司包括中国建筑国际03311HK目标价1610港元评级买入及中国建筑兴业00830HK目标价266港元评级买入重申行业跑赢大市评级行业新闻更新1公布2023年1-2月全国固定资产投资统计数据2中国人民银行将降低存款准备金率25个基点3北京保障房中心与六家银行签署人民币1800亿元战略合作协议公司新闻更新1远大住工02163HK发布盈利警告2中国建筑兴业00830HK2022年股东净利同比增长445至422亿港元3中国建筑国际03311HK2022年股东净利同比增长170至7957亿港元风险1政府基础设施支出可能低于预期2通胀可能超预期并导致政策收紧3世界各地的疫情可能会出现波动行业报告传播文化行业期待已久的技术创新有望重塑传媒行业的生态结构維持跑赢大市评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员林荣叶报告日期2023-03-27报告摘要GICS分类的传媒及娱乐板块的估值在利好因素的推动下强劲反弹过去两周的板块市值加权平均股价表现位居榜首涨幅达到102我们认为传媒及娱乐板块的估值主要受AIGC技术革新的利好消息以及游戏行业复苏预期强化的推动从子赛道来看传媒及娱乐板块的涨幅主要来自互动媒体和服务其赛道的市值加权平均涨幅为109除了有线和卫星电视以及广播子行业外其他子行业的表现与整体市场表现相当AIGC技术在短时间内迅速迭代新一代ChatGPT不仅在准确性上有显著提高还可以直接协助许多专业领域的内容分析和创作顶级的科技巨头都在部署各自的AIGC发展战略预计竞争将进一步推动技术的迭代速度除了GPT-4外StableDiffusion和Midjourney等AI绘画工具以及Runway等AI视频工具也在持续取得突破游戏和影视行业是当前AIGC技术能迅速落实应用的典型领域AIGC技术可能将对影视制作进行重塑随着视觉效果在PGC制作中的重要性不断提高相关劳动力成本也在增加受惠于AIGC技术加速迭代人工智能有潜力取代视觉效果阶段中一些劳动密集型流程以实现降本增效此外AIGC的应用可能直接革新中国动画电影的内容制作行业相关公司预计将从行业的发展中受益对于制作规模较小的PUGC和UGC内容而言从利用ChatGPT的能力写脚本到使用AI视频工具一键生成如今已经涌现出一批新工具可以为创作者所用我们认为在中国影视行业具领先地位的中国儒意00136HK和猫眼娱乐01896HK将受益于当前技术和行业的发展Seethelastpagefordisclaimer9of12MorningResearchFocus行业报告通信行业周报运营商资本开支趋稳算力网络投资成为重点评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员余劲同报告日期2023-03-27报告摘要运营商总资本开支趋于稳定2023年中国移动计划资本开支人民币1832亿元同比下滑11中国电信预计2023年资本开支将达到人民币990亿元同比增长70中国联通预计2023年资本开支将达到人民币769亿元同比增长36三家运营商2023年总体资本开支总计达到人民币3591亿元同比增长20显示出适度合理的趋势传统CT业务投资下滑算力网络倾向明显中国移动以5G为代表的CT连接投资预计将在2023年同比降低121至人民币1029亿元其中5G网络相关投资人民币830亿元同比降低135预计2023年开通5G基站36万站累计达到1645万站中国电信预计2023年移动网投资同比将下滑2至人民币315亿元2023年可用5G基站数达122万站同时2023年宽带网投资也同比下滑16至人民币155亿元中国联通从2023年开始在5G建设中的投资将有所下降算力网络投资成为运营商重点其中中国移动计划2023年在算力领域投资人民币452亿元较2022年增加人民币117亿元计划新增云服务器超24万台对外可用IDC机架4万架中国电信2023年的产业数字化投资将同比高增40至人民币380亿元其中IDC预计投入人民币95亿元2023年达到56万机架算力投入人民币195亿元中国联通2023年算网投资预计不少于人民币146亿元同比增长超过20我们给予行业跑赢大市评级推荐中国移动00941HK中国电信00728HK中国联通00762HK中兴通讯00763HK和比亚迪电子00285HK风险提示东数西算和5G落地进程不及预期云计算发展不及预期流量类业务及产业互联网应用发展不及预期行业报告食品饮料行业双周报国内消费情绪持续回升细分赛道迎来布局良机评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员陈思超报告日期2023-03-27报告摘要交通流量趋势良好3月经济及商业活动进一步复常我们对2023年社会客流和消费者购买力的逐步回暖持乐观态度短期看接下来的催化剂将包括1各公司对2023年二季度至2024年增长路径的指引如销量和平均销售单价的提升利润率以及2迫近的劳动节期间线下渠道的销售反弹维持食品饮料行业跑赢大市的评级对于啤酒赛道而言我们预计2023年高端化的销量占比持续扩张尤其是旺季期间同时成本压力的边际钝化将增厚啤酒公司毛利率短期看主要啤酒厂商的动销与存货情况良性我们的行业首选为华润啤酒00291HK评级为买入我们亦推荐燕京啤酒000729SZ以及青岛啤酒600600SH00168HK对于非酒精饮料赛道而言产品创新及动态的营销策略至关重要国内经济重新开放后得益于线下交通客流和户外活动的复苏行业从逆风到顺风的切换即将到来而我们认为市场或因更主动的投资以及新进入者而保持相当的竞争性除了需求增长我们在成本端亦看到一些积极因素我们给予中国食品00506HK买入评级目标价360港元股康师傅00322HK和维他奶00345HK也将受益对于乳制品赛道而言我们推荐蒙牛乳业02319HK主要的商品原奶厂商如优然牧业09858HK和现代牧业01117HK也会受益主要风险因素1国内经济增长或居民收入增长逊于预期2原材料或包装物价格变动超出预期以及3食品安全问题Seethelastpagefordisclaimer10of12MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer11of12MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKDONGGUANRURALCOMMERCIALBANK09889HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKALIBABA09988HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HK360DIGITECH-S03660HKBOSSZHIPIN02076HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKVOBILEGROUP03738HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKFOSUNINTL00656HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKSENSETIME-W00020HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofCHINAOVERSEASLANDINVESTMENT00688HKLENOVO00992HKCHINATELECOM-HSHARES00728HKCHINAUNICOM00762HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKALIBABA09988HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKCHINAMERCHANTSBANK-HSHARES03968HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKAGRICULTURALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01288HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKNETEASE09999HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKXPENG09868HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer12of12