研究报告全文：股票研TableTitlePeterShao邵俊樨究CompanyReportChinaPowerInternational02380HK85225095464EquityResearch公司报告中国电力02380HKpetershaogtjascomhk27March20232022TableSummaryResultsinLine2023RenewablesCapacityGrowthTargetMissedButTransformationStoryRemainsIntact2022年业绩符合预期2023年新能源装机增长目标不及预期但转型故事仍然完好公2022resultsinlineCPIDrecordedearningsofRMB2648mnin2022vsnetTableRank司lossofRMB256mnin2021inlinewiththepreviouspositiveprofitalertTheRatingBuyresultsweredraggeddownbycontinuedbutnarrowedthermallossandweakerMaintained报resultsfromthehydropowersegmentwhileboostedbyone-offacquisitiongain告评级买入维持ofaroundRMB15bnCPIDsnewenergybusinesscontinuedtodeliverprofitCompanyReportgrowthwithwindandsolarreportingearningsofRMB1345mn473yoyandRMB782mn389yoyrespectively6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK410Revisedfrom原目标价HK490Brighterearningsoutlookfor2023ForCPIDsthermalsegmentweexpectaturnaroundthisyearinlightof1thedisposaloftwoloss-makingthermal股价SharepriceHK3160powerplantslastyear2thestart-upofthestate-of-the-artShentouPower告PlantIIProject2GWsince2H22and3theexpectedimprovementin证报contractcoalfulfilmentthisyeardrivenbyCPIDsstrategicpartnershipwithcoalStockperformance券companiesIntermsofthenewenergybusinessweexpectcontinuedgrowth股价表现究asCPIDplanstobuild7GWofnewcapacityin2023Meanwhile2023couldTableQuotePic研40change研seeCPIDsenergystoragebusinesstakingoffwiththeCompanys30究managementguidingthesegmentsrevenueofaboutRMB600mn57xyoy20券andnetprofitofaroundRMB50mn136xyoythisyear10报0证Transformationstoryremainsintactdespitelower-than-expected告10EquityResearchReportrenewablesgrowthtargetfor2023CPIDguided2023newenergycapacity20additionof7GWlowerthanourexpectationof12GWInlate2021CPIDs30managementtoldanalyststhattheCompanyintendstokeep8GWofthermal40capacitybytheendof2025IfsuchguidanceisunchangedCPIDwillhavetoTab50add45GWofrenewablescapacityin2024-2025tomeetits2025green60leIMar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23transformationtarget90ofinstalledcapacityincleanenergyquiteHSICPIDchallenginginourviewWethusseeachancethatCPIDmayopttohavelessnfo1than8GWofthermalcapacityby2025toreducethetransformationburdenTablePriceChange能ForexamplewhenCPIDsthermalcapacitydropsfrom8GWto6GWbytheChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Y源endof2025theamountofwindandsolarcapacitythatCPIDneedstobuildin股价变动1个月3个月1年Abs33145179运2024-2025decreasesfrom45GWto27GWthisismoreachievablewhilestill绝对变动ReltoHSIndex营animpressivetransformationthatboostsCPIDsnewenergycapacitybynearly34128110相对恒指变动行8-foldduringthe14thFive-YearPlanperiodAvgSharepriceHKOperationsSectorOperations323437平均股价港元业MaintainBuybutlowerTPtoHK410WecontinuetoviewCPIDsSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationaltransformationasadynamicprocesswhichisfundamentallyimprovingtheEnergyCompanysearningsprofileWecutour2023-2024EPSforecaststoRMB024-177andRMB040-115respectivelyonlowerestimatesofnewenergycapacitygrowthduringtheperiodandintroduce2025EPSforecastofRMB062Weloweroursum-of-the-partsTPtoHK410newenergy90x2023PEthermal06x2023PBhydro120x2023PEMajordownsideTabrisksUnfavourablepolicychangesworse-than-expecteddarkspreadshigher-than-expectedrawmaterialpricesdelayinprojectroll-outleITablenfo2YearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROE年结Profit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率1231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMB中2021A3547725600401235644340608005521072022A4368926480220na13136520801224256国2023F450353012024310511242130600973562电2024F51748498204036586839300701615995力2025F620857721062454844423606025091133TableBaseDataSharesinissuem总股数m123701510Majorshareholder大股东SPIC543MarketcapHKm市值HKm390896772Freefloat自由流通比率3573monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数000601711FY23NetgearingFY23净负债股东资金181152WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK56702230FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元41ChinaPowerInternationalChina02380HKPowerInternationalSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of5TablePageHeaderChinaPowerInternational02380HKTable-1CPID2022resultshighlight1raMthgiRelbaTRMBmn2H22yoyHoH2022yoyRevenue2338426315243689231Operatingprofit358895031077604489Profitfortheyear1255na12326852971-Shareholdersprofit1798na11162648na-Non-controllinginterests5434642na37960Shareholdersprofitbysegment27March2023-Thermal127nana592703-Hydro6049236na180697-Wind7615533031345473-Solar310254343782389-Energystorage21nana2818-Unallocateditems1225nana931naTotalshareholdersprofit1798na11152648naEPSRMB015na1143022naDPSRMBnanana0111200SourceCPIDGuotaiJunanInternational2raMthgiRelbaTFigure-1ProfitaftertaxperKWhsoldbypowersourceRMBcentsKWh31723020182618691666169715621564144613401408113383010104786996180973602380HK6314533343521440099095055120078205331363中国电力1069718282020192020202120221H212H211H222H22ThermalHydroWindSolarSourceCPIDGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-2CPIDsconsolidatedinstalledcapacityFigure-3CPIDtargets709095ofcleanenergyChinaPowerInternationalcapacityproportionin202320252030MW35000801003159919795289324757530000952684627570250197207901545222250002250140056496590271618441788217241436020000146271898554755475555475545115000522805451504510000440757013720150401504013840405000390399110807035650306520182019202020212022Coal-firedHydropower60WindSolarNaturalgasEnvironmental2022A2023F2025F2030FReportCleanenergyproportionSourceCPIDGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceCPIDGuotaiJunanInternationalCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of5TablePageHeaderChinaPowerInternational02380HKFigure-4CPIDsgreentransformationisadynamicprocess1raMthgiRelbaTAssetCoal-firedinjectionsassetfromSPICdisposalsTransformationsupportCross-Policy27March2023CPIDsgreen709095installedlistingsupportcapacityincleanenergybytransformation202320252030OrganicdevelopmentofnewenergySourceGuotaiJunanInternationalTable-2SOTPvaluationMethodologyMultipleIntrinsicRMBmnThermalPB06x73752raMthgiRelbaTHydroPE120x10613NewenergywindsolarandenergystoragePE90x32755Totalintrinsicvalue50743Noofsharesmn12370HKDCNYexchangerate087TPHKD410SourceGuotaiJunanInternationalTable-3Peersvaluation02380HKMarketCapPEfiscalyearPBfiscalyearCompanyStockCodeCurrencyLastpriceHKDmn22A23F24F25F22A23F24F25FPeersthermal中国电力HuanengPowerIntlInc-H00902HKHKD420128985na70574713060505HuadianPowerIntlCorp-H01071HKHKD31859232836048na05050505SimpleAverage8365534709050505WeightedAverage8367544710060505PeershydroSichuanChuantouEnergy-A600674CHCNY13116684216614213613518171615GuangxiGuiguanElectric-A600236CHCNY56350725156161143na252424naChinaPowerInternationalGuizhouQianyuanPowerCo-A002039CHCNY1529747215310686nananananaSimpleAverage15813612113521212015WeightedAverage16114813513521201915PeersnewenergyChinaLongyuanPower-H00916HKHKD92913638211382705910090807XinyiEnergyHoldings03868HKHKD2371763417813011110415131315ChinaDatangRenewable-H01798HKHKD2681949486725956131009naSimpleAverage12595807313111011WeightedAverage11686736311100908SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of5TablePageHeaderChinaPowerInternational02380HKFinancialStatementsandRatios1raMthgiRelbaTTableIncomeStatementIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheetBalanceSheetYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalrevenue3547743689450355174862085PPE129187142306163974214989272003Otherincome514747747747747Intangibleassets817016013156511530914985Fuelcosts1805422726144731288611356InterestsinassociatesandJVs49556656665666566656DEPN6100766186311057413473Prepayments2489495149514951495127March2023Staffcosts33513840387344505339Othernon-currentassets1187410593105931059310593Repairsandmaintenance868965107413021637Totalnon-currentassets156676180519201826252499309188Subcontractingcosts511754552060666666Consumables424561579665798Cashcashequivalents17674228603731972279Othergainsandlossesnet9542516549549549Inventories14691091109110911091Otheroperatingexpenses25312841300232603589Tradereceivables836312635103581138413659Operatingprofit5106760491801384120522Prepayments41096594659465946594Amountsduefromrelatedparties25356098609860986098Financecostsnet37354107394850526765Otherscurrentassets328239242246250ShareofresultsofassociatesandJVs333153304370436Totalcurrentassets1857030886304212861229972Profitbeforetax103833445537915914193Totalassets1752462114052322472811113391602raMthgiRelbaTIncomeTax362659110718322839Profitaftertax67626854429732711354Short-termdebts2191216727297434858072372Borrowingsfromrelatedparties61094719471947194719Non-controllinginterest93337141723453633Tradeandotherpayables1090518164179221787717865Shareholdersprofitloss2562648301249827721Othercurrentliabilities66116315633463536374Totalcurrentliabilities45536459255871777529101329BasicEPS00400220024304030624DilutedEPS00400220024304030624Long-termdebts54930622126761892252118230Borrowingsfromrelatedparties85581041510415104151041502380HKOthernon-currentliabilities1384524262242622426224262TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementTotalnon-currentliabilities7733396890102296126929152907中国电力Yearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalliabilities122869142815161013204459254237Profitbeforetax103833445537915914193DDA6093768286311057413473Totalshareholdersequity3605246969486205239858125Workingcapitaladjustments3758514203410712287Minorityinterest1632421621226142425526798Incometaxpaid1213157109218162822Totalequity5237768590712337665284924Others6124629304370436Cashfromoperatingactivities15485726148051647722122TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatiosChinaPowerInternationalCapEx17165175963070462100711002021A2022A2023F2024F2025FOthers15562479107112221373MarginsCashfrominvestingactivities1872120075296336087869727Operatingmargin144174204267331Netprofitmargin196198142183Proceedsfromborrowingsnet132497456184224347049770Dividendpaid1287557136112051993ReturnRatiosOthers564699094257031090ROA0413192633Cashfromfinancingactivities1760816808166374156246687ROE-07566295133Cashatbegofyear13181767422860373197LiquidityleverageNetchangesincash435245918092839918Totaldebttoequity20221700189623292688Effectofforeignexchanges133000Netgearing19891638181122872661Cashatendofyear17674228603731972279Interestcoverageratiox1118182130SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of5TablePageHeaderChinaPowerInternational02380HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinition1raMthgiRelbaTTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorable27March2023Neutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport02380HK3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months中国电力5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERChinaPowerInternationalThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongReportTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of5