进入跌势
　　①消费进入季节性拐点，压力逐步呈现。深加工的消费量处于季节性回落态势，但仍处于历史偏高水平，库存累积已经到达历史最高水平，淀粉下游消费不畅，终端主动降价，呈现持续亏损。饲料企业消费在处于历史低位的情况下，近期反而开始回落，季节性消费回落压力来袭。
　　②建库意愿不强，有效流通充足。北方港口库存仍保持季节性回升，逐渐回归至正常水平线内。南方港口库存季节性回落，内贸库存由于消费不振仍保持低位，外贸库存由于价格优势仍处于同期高位。
　　总结：综合来看，下游的消费开始季节性回落，市场支撑坍塌，开始进入下跌走势，定向稻谷拍卖时间的确定成为压垮市场的最后一根稻草，玉米及淀粉跌势已经形成，后续反弹空间不大。

研究报告全文：南华玉米淀粉周报20230326跌势形成南华研究院边舒扬Z0012647玉米淀粉周度综述本周总结上游下游饲料企业平均库存3194天周环比减少094天较去年同期下跌供应全国售粮进度为83较上期增加4较去年同期增加4多饲料养殖1557饲料企业库存小幅调整但幅度有限多北方港口库存3162万吨同比增加376万吨当周北方港口淀粉加工企业上周消化玉米461万吨较前一周持平深加工企库存下海量75万吨同比减少27万吨广东内贸库存458万吨中淀粉多业玉米库存6162万吨环比增加177已经达到年内新高较上周减少22万吨外贸库存118万吨较上周减少33万吨进口美玉米累计出口给中国4387万吨本周出口至中国2019万吨多酒精酒精企业上周消化玉米3908万吨环比下调233万吨中玉米基差近期基差有反季节抬升迹象现货升水05整体偏强多淀粉期现当前基差反季节抬升现货升水05有继续扩大趋势多美玉米出口呈现增长态势截至3月16日当周美出口2223未来中国将增加巴西玉米的进口稻谷定向拍卖落地小麦价格美玉米多其他因素空年度玉米185869万吨其中单周为13813万吨下跌迅速进入跌势消费进入季节性拐点压力逐步呈现深加工的消费量处于季节性回落态势但仍处于历史偏高水平库存累积已经到达历史最高水平淀粉下游消费不畅终端主动降价呈现持续亏损饲料企业消费在处于历史低位的情况下近期反而开始回落季节性消费回落压力来袭观点建库意愿不强有效流通充足北方港口库存仍保持季节性回升逐渐回归至正常水平线内南方港口库存季节性回落内贸库存由于消费不振仍保持低位外贸库存由于价格优势仍处于同期高位总结综合来看下游的消费开始季节性回落市场支撑坍塌开始进入下跌走势定向稻谷拍卖时间的确定成为压垮市场的最后一根稻草玉米及淀粉跌势已经形成后续反弹空间不大策略逢高沽空技术分析玉米价格当前破位下跌收于前期支撑位但支撑力度或有限淀粉破位下跌均线形成空头排列反弹后仍将持续处于跌势美玉米与内盘形成劈叉风险港口库存变化淀粉企业原料库存去化问题小麦价格加速下跌价格持续反弹短期关注40日均线的压制力度玉米淀粉周度统计期货数据合约收盘价周涨跌涨跌幅备注现货数据价格周涨跌基差变化C012687-47-172锦州港2800-30-36121C052763-73-257蛇口港2880-5044141玉米CC092735-67-239四平2700-20-136111玉米主力2745-91-332C2307潍坊2790-30-46121CS013012-79-256黑龙江2950-30-6265CS053012-95-306吉林305003895淀粉CSCS093057-97-308河北3130011895淀粉主力3012-95-315CS2305山东3150-20138115CBOT玉米玉米主力6445975154ZC2305期货价差数据价差周涨跌重点关注现货价差数据价差周涨跌01-05-7626锦州港-蛇口港-8020玉米C05-0928-6玉米现货锦州港-四平100-1009-014842锦州港-潍坊10001-05016黑龙江-吉林-100-30淀粉CS05-09-452淀粉现货黑龙江-河北-180-3009-014548黑龙江-山东-200-10仓单数据仓单增减售粮进度本周上周进口利润价格涨跌利润增减玉米34759-3954全国8379美西地区26933332167-53淀粉5861-1907东北8479美湾地区2670732962393-5296加工利润利润增减玉米淀粉黑龙江-140-30港口当周增减库存当周增减吉林-1082北方四港3162011890企业库存9870090淀粉河北-114-9广东内贸45801470可售库存610库存山东-138-18广东外贸11800-169物理库存1042黑龙江-2040下游当周增减产量当周增减酒精吉林-377-15饲料企业3194-094全国322769502河南-531160加工厂6162021860山东1309285玉米淀粉期货玉米期货走势图淀粉期货走势图上周玉米期货下跌迅速短期有300034002950扩大迹象290033002850320028002750310027002650300026002900美玉米本周前期255025002800区间横盘整理周五长阳线拉升玉米01玉米05玉米09淀粉01淀粉05淀粉09内外玉米价格对比玉米淀粉主力走势淀粉与玉米价85031003200差整体重心向80030003100下保持一致2900750300028007002700290065026002800250060027002400550230026005002200250003CBOT玉米大连玉米玉米主力玉米淀粉主力玉米价差5-9价差小幅回调区间震荡与2021年相似但波动幅度更小玉米1-5价差玉米5-9价差玉米9-1价差4010015020501000-20050-40-500-60-80-100-50-100-150-100-1201526313942212934455768728310110911212411312112921422231732541041861718191101111121426217225312320328413421429515523531616624710718726811819827101710251110111811261212122012281901-19052001-20052101-21052201-22052301-23051905-19092005-20092105-21092205-22092305-23091809-19011909-20012009-21012109-22012209-2301玉米1-3价差玉米3-5价差玉米5-7价差6060804060402004020-20200-40-600-80-20-20-100-40-120-40-140-60-60-160-8091961327911916921926101106115125111118126110117124131214221228101110161021102610311110111511201125113012101215122012251118115122129252122192263431131832541484154224291115112211291213122012271901-19032001-20032101-21032201-22032301-23031903-19052003-20052103-21052203-22052303-23051905-19072005-20072105-21072205-22072305-2307玉米7-9价差玉米9-11价差玉米11-01价差80100406080302040601020400020-10-200-20-40-20-30-60-40-40-80-60-50313831532232945412419426535105175245316761462162851585155225296561261962673710717724731878148218287178715722729858128198269299916923930107101410211028041907-19092007-20092107-21092207-22092307-23091909-19112009-20112109-21112209-22112309-23111911-20012011-21012111-22012211-23012311-2401玉米基差现货市场整体偏弱购销交易惨淡东北地趴梁销售收尾部分烘干塔出货了结现货供应过剩导致小幅亏损贸易商报价心态仍然谨慎收购意愿较低深加工企业库存基本建立完毕整体价格下调10-48元吨华北地区由于小麦价格跌幅迅速出货意愿强烈销区饲料企业有收购小麦倾向采购玉米积极性不高港口现货成交差北港价格持续下跌受期货市场宽幅下跌影响预计短期内价格偏弱运行基差近期基差有反季节抬升迹象现货升水05整体偏强玉米01基差玉米05基差玉米09基差400400400300300300200200200100100100000-100-100-100-200-200-200-300-300-30021384157769461779513283348213225320413425519531612624718730811823916928113129613625719731812824917929114115127220315327420101111121112131415161718110101022111511271221101110231116112812101222锦州港-1901锦州港-2001锦州港-2101锦州港-1905锦州港-2005锦州港-2105锦州港-1909锦州港-2009锦州港-2109锦州港-2201锦州港-2301锦州港-2401锦州港-2205锦州港-2305锦州港-2209锦州港-2309玉米03基差玉米07基差玉米11基差60060060040040040020020002000-2000-200-400-600-200-400-800-400-600-1000-800-1200-600-1000-800-1200-10004151617181911011111211121121112131415161718191101锦州港-1903锦州港-2003锦州港-2103锦州港-1907锦州港-2007锦州港-2107锦州港-1911锦州港-2011锦州港-2111锦州港-2203锦州港-2303锦州港-2207锦州港-2307锦州港-2211锦州港-231105淀粉价差5-9价差稳定区间运行本周呈现V字走势淀粉1-5价差淀粉5-9价差淀粉9-1价差10020020015050150100100050050-50-500-100-100-50-150-150-200-100-200-250-15015263139-25042211012910934112451245711312112968214222723173258341041842621710172251025312111032011183281126413121242112204291228515523531616624710718726811819617181911011111218271901-19052001-20052101-21052201-22052301-23051905-19092005-20092105-21092205-22092305-23091809-19011909-20012009-21012109-22012209-2301淀粉1-3价差淀粉3-5价差淀粉5-7价差804001006030050402002000100-50-200-40-100-100-60-80-200-150-100-300-20091961327911916921926101106115125111118126110117124131214221228111811512212925212219226343113183254148415422429101110161021102610311110111511201125113012101215122012251115112211291213122012271901-19032001-20032101-21032201-22032301-23031903-19052003-20052103-21052203-22052303-23051905-19072005-20072105-21072205-22072305-2307淀粉7-9价差淀粉9-11价差淀粉11-1价差15012020010010015080501006050040-50200-1000-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35080803006060250402004015020201000011114848565663637171999911485663719911511512912921221222622631131132532542242252052061761771571572972981281282682692392310710711411412212211512921222631132542252061771572981282692310711412210211021111811181216121612301230102111181216123020172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023主要深加工企业玉米库存万吨广东福建玉米淀粉物理库存万吨主要企业淀粉库存万吨50000160750450001401204000055010035000803503000060401502500020200001129364165718994011412722231941442751052361871472782291793011812415000101310261121121712301148566371991151292122263113254225206177157298128269231071141221021111812162018-09-142019-09-142020-09-142021-09-142022-09-14123020192020202120222023广东四港福建四港20192020202120222023北方四港库存季节性上行但同比偏低广东港内贸库存季节性回落但幅度偏低广东港外贸库存持续回落但仍处同期高位深加工企业库存持续上升已达到年内新高处于同期较高水平015玉米淀粉物理库存增长后略有回落主要企业淀粉库存保持平稳玉米淀粉产量全国69家样本企业玉米淀粉产量变化万吨山东24家样本企业玉米淀粉产量万吨401635141230102586204152010112936416571899411412722231941442751052361871472782291793011812411233749516376881013102611211217123011212321422531832942051252361462571772881983091092110211412710131024111511261218122920202021202220232020202120222023玉米淀粉产量继续季节性波动当前略有调整主产区山东玉米淀粉产量季节性回升后保持平稳状态016玉米加工消费深加工企业玉米消费量有回落迹象但处于历史偏高水平玉米淀粉企业消费季节性回落后企稳玉米酒精消费开始季节性回落主要深加工企业玉米消费量万吨玉米淀粉企业玉米消费量万吨13075701206511060551005090454080357030114856637199112936416571899411512921222631132542252061771572981282692310711412211412722231941442751052361871472782291793011812410211118121612301013102611211217123020202021202220232020202120222023玉米酒精企业玉米消费量万吨氨基酸企业玉米消费量万吨452422402035183016251412201015801729364111657189942936411165718994222319414427510523917930118124114127618714727822222319414427510523917930118124114127618714727822101310261121121712301013102611211217123020202021202220232020202120222023饲料生猪饲料企业库存天数4341全国饲料企业玉米库存季节性回落整体处于历史低位393735本周生猪出栏均价重新回落全国均价达到1504元公斤环比下跌059333129上周配合饲料价格回落整体重心下移2725112936416571899411412722231941442751052361871472782291793011812410131026112112171230202120222023玉米与生猪价格对比元吨配合饲料价格元公斤3000300004202950280002900260004002850240003802800220002750200003602700180002650160003402600140003202550120002500100003002021-03-312021-04-302021-06-302021-08-312021-09-302021-10-312021-11-302022-01-312022-03-312022-04-302022-06-302022-08-312022-09-302022-10-312022-11-302023-01-312023-02-282021-05-312021-07-312021-12-312022-02-282022-05-312022-07-312022-12-312021-10-282021-11-282021-12-282022-01-282022-02-282022-04-302022-06-302022-07-312022-09-302022-11-302022-12-312023-02-282022-03-312022-05-312022-08-312022-10-312023-01-31玉米锦州港国标二等价商品猪出栏价育肥猪配合饲料蛋鸡配合饲料肉鸡配合饲料018加工利润玉米制淀粉利润玉米制乙醇利润502000150001000-505000-100-500-1000-150-1500-2000-2002020-03-262020-05-262020-07-262020-09-262020-11-262021-01-262021-03-262021-05-262021-07-262021-09-262021-11-262022-01-262022-03-262022-05-262022-07-262022-09-262022-11-262023-01-26河北黑龙江吉林山东黑龙江吉林河南玉米制淀粉利润持续亏损保持区间波动玉米制乙醇利润亏损其中河南亏损扩大019