蒙3、蒙5精煤价格下调，短盘运费大幅下降135，预计蒙5精煤仍然有下降空间，山西煤同样下跌，配煤下跌明显，存在动力煤回流压力

研究报告全文：南华期货焦煤焦炭产业周报基差修复带动反弹--2023325南华研究院袁铭资格证号Z0012648刘斯亮资格证号F0309974701周度策略目录焦煤零关税维持进口有增量Contents0203焦炭需求继续上行但空间有限01重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议周度策略单边基差月间价差焦煤观望观望观望焦炭观望观望观望焦炭-焦煤观望焦煤-铁矿观望02重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦煤数据总览估值3月24日上周同期周涨跌供应本期上期环比同比数据频率焦煤230518591875-16精煤日均产量万吨61396109049287周焦煤230917451761-16洗煤厂开工率73527343012261周焦煤基差267272-444甘其毛都口岸2023进口量万吨6798211881-47219累计值焦煤05-091141140焦煤总进口量万吨6913761965115713149月蒙3精煤17701840-70国有重点煤矿产量万吨16786501675550019872月沙河驿蒙522902310-20库存本期上期环比同比数据频率主焦煤低硫24032416-13气煤19501963-13港口库存16431144321385-1985周瘦煤21342184-50独立焦化企业库存9664099396-277-2462周肥煤23492390-41247家钢厂样本焦化厂库存8266581720116-743周13焦煤222722270矿山企业库存2369623834-058-031周双焦汽运价格介休洗煤厂精煤库存1393515050-7414464周170180-10丰南区双焦汽运价格孝义总库存227794228214-018-1367周1901900日照港运费价格查干哈达堆285420-135监管区库存1702417190-097-周场甘其毛都口岸-260-3094872总库存铁水产量14281444-112-1861周澳煤进口利润03重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦炭数据总览估值3月24日上周同期周涨跌数据频率供应本期上期环比同比数据频率焦炭230527362785-49日独立焦化企业日均产量万吨66496660-017106周焦炭230926232673-50日焦炭基差84100-16日独立焦化企业产能利用率73217273066-507周焦炭05-091131122日钢厂样本焦化厂日均产量万吨46974709-025-004周日照港准一25902650-60日钢厂样本焦化厂产能利用率86608682-025-160周冶金焦一级273027300日理论焦炭周产量万吨7942279583-020060周冶金焦二级258125810日冶金焦准一级湿熄25972603-6日需求本期上期环比同比数据频率冶金焦准一级干熄29412947-6日日均铁水产量万吨2398223758094415周现货理论焦化利润顶装焦-382-354-28日高炉开工率82738229053578周现货理论焦化利润捣固焦-320-290-30日高炉产能利用率89288844095451周盘面05焦化利润按131-188-161-27日铁水焦炭理论消耗量1058393783153094415周独立焦化企业吨焦平均利润492722周库存本期上期环比同比数据频率独立焦化企业库存万吨10433104200121207周钢厂盈利率593920周247家钢厂样本焦化厂库存万吨6446665813-205-767周螺纹钢电炉利润-100-48-52日247家钢厂样本焦化厂库存可用天数12221246-193-812周螺纹钢高炉利润-50-25-25日港口库存万吨1823018180028-1513周热轧卷板毛利-15-2612日冷轧卷板毛利674324日全样本库存万吨9312994413-136-744周唐山钢坯利润111172-61日全样本库存日均铁水产量777795-228-1338周04重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦煤周度综述现货观察现货蒙3蒙5精煤价格下调短盘运费大幅下降135预计蒙5精煤仍然有下降空间山西煤同样下跌配煤下跌明显存在动力煤回流压力偏空本周总结供应山西地区继续呼吁增产保供部门焦煤配煤出现回流洗煤厂产量与开工率提升蒙煤通关量维持1000车左右煤炭进口继续保持0关税进口增量预期较强偏空需求钢厂焦化补库需求强于独立焦化企业在提涨博弈未明朗前独立焦化企业补库偏谨慎市场存在粗钢压减传闻偏空库存港口累库反映进口压力总库存与库存铁水比微降中性利润澳煤进口利润转好存在钢厂与澳方谈判长协采购传闻中性基差蒙5计算目前2305基差267现货有继续走弱预期期货有反弹需求基差预期缩窄中性短期来看基差对盘面形成了支撑但是短盘运费的下降对蒙5价格存在压力供应端山西地区继续呼吁增产保供部门焦煤配煤出现回流洗煤厂产量与开工率提升蒙煤通关量维持1000车左右煤炭进口继续保持0关税进口增量预期较强需求端钢厂焦化补库需求强于独立焦化企业观点在提涨博弈未明朗前独立焦化企业补库偏谨慎库存端港口累库反映进口压力总库存与库存铁水比微降但是终端需求带动铁水进一步上行可能性不大短期建议关注粗钢压减与澳煤进口长协的情况盘面预计弱势反弹策略观望风险煤矿安全检查蒙煤通关情况钢厂铁水产量焦化厂复产情况澳煤进口利润焦炭提降博弈下游补库不及预期终端工地需求05重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦炭周度综述现货观察现货提涨迟迟无法落地日照港准一下跌偏空本周总结供应焦化厂利润转好有产量提升空间钢厂产量维持中高位持稳中性需求铁水产量继续提高短期焦炭需求有支撑但是中期螺纹表需走平限制铁水进一步上行中性短期库存钢厂焦化与全样本库存可用天数降低基本面依然健康但是后期随着焦煤成本下跌供应增加会逐渐扭转偏紧局面偏多利润独立焦化利润转好分区域来看除内蒙古与陕西亏损100左右其余地区利润可以支撑增产中性基差2305基差84盘面预期逐渐转为提降预期中性短期对焦炭扰动较大的是提涨能否落地市场分歧较大盘面预期为提降但是钢厂刚需仍存即便无法提涨可能也难以出现提降打破平衡需要焦化增产出现或钢厂执行粗钢压减现货走势短期震荡为主供应端焦化厂供应在提涨不明朗时较为谨慎钢厂焦化维持产量需求端钢厂铁水继续上行至239万吨日均但是进观点一步增产受到成材需求限制电炉利润走弱废钢替代效用有所减弱短期盘面可能跟随焦煤反弹但中期维持偏空判断策略观望风险蒙煤通关情况钢厂铁水产量焦化厂复产情况澳煤进口利润焦炭第三轮提降成材需求预期证伪06重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议01周度策略目录焦煤关注海外焦煤价格走势Contents0203焦炭关注终端需求持续性07重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦煤估值-价差2309基差元吨2305基差元吨2500700230000400002400350006002200002300210000300005002200250002000002100400200001900002000150003001900180000100001800200170000500017001001600000001600150000-500015000202212222023222202212162023216基差右轴蒙5精煤仓单成本焦煤2309基差右轴蒙5精煤仓单成本焦煤2305焦煤期限结构焦煤05-09季节性期限结构焦煤05-09330040031003002900270020025001002300210001900-10017001500-200040506070809101112010203917101711171217117217317417082023-03-242022-03-2420182019202020212022资料来源钢联万德彭博南华研究焦煤估值-价格与利润焦煤运费元吨澳煤进口利润元吨10002406008002305002206004002104003002002002001900180100-2001700-400-600双焦汽车运输价格介休丰南区日双焦汽车运输价格介休日照港日-800双焦汽车运输价格孝义日照港日-1000112131415161718191101111121双焦汽车运输价格孝义古冶区日炼焦煤蒙古产运费价格查干哈达堆场甘其毛都口岸日20192020202120222023主要煤种现货均价元吨情绪指数30000010023009022502500008022002150702000002100602050150000502000401950100000301900201850500001018002023-02-102023-02-172023-02-242023-03-032023-03-102023-03-172023-03-24000焦煤11家期货公司市场情绪指数周焦煤38家煤矿企业市场情绪指数周焦煤16家投资公司市场情绪指数周焦煤31家钢铁企业市场情绪指数周中硫主焦煤价格指数中国日变频周最后一条092023-03-242023-03-17DCE焦煤主力合约收盘价日变频周最后一条资料来源钢联南华研究焦煤驱动-库存上游库存中国矿山焦煤库存万吨上游库存山西矿山焦煤库存万吨上游库存山东矿山焦煤库存万吨400200250350180160300200140250120150200100150801006010040505020000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023日期矿山总库存山西山东安徽河北河南2023-03-2423696731446119622023-03-17238347181466125422023-03-10250277351576117722023-03-0325679771616107922023-02-2425775791606107522023-02-172541765159412622023-02-10250721576132010资料来源钢联南华研究焦煤驱动-库存焦煤港口库存万吨焦煤库存结构万吨90018008001600700140060012005001000400800300600200400100200001121314151617181911011111212022-08-122022-09-122022-10-122022-11-122022-12-122023-01-122023-02-122023-03-1220192020202120222023钢厂库存港口库存煤矿库存洗煤厂库存230家独立焦化企业焦煤库存万吨247家钢厂焦煤库存万吨1300210019001200170011001500100013009001100900800700700111313241515316307308299281028112712271121314151617181911011111210112019202020212022202320192020202120222023资料来源钢联南华研究焦煤驱动-产量洗煤厂精煤库存万吨洗煤厂原煤库存万吨5003004502504003502003001502502001001505010050001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212019202020212022202320192020202120222023洗煤厂开工率洗煤厂精煤日均产量吨天90808575807075657060655560505545504045354030112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121012202020212022202320192020202120222023资料来源钢联南华研究焦煤驱动-进口炼焦煤总进口吨月澳洲进口量吨7001200600100050080040060030040020020010001121314151617181911011111210112131415161718191101111121201920202021202220192020202120222023蒙古进口量吨俄罗斯美国加拿大总进口量吨4500000400000040000003500000350000030000003000000250000025000002000000200000015000001500000100000010000005000005000000013122833143053163073183193010311130123111213141516171819110111112101320192020202120222019202020212022资料来源钢联南华研究焦煤驱动库存消费比焦煤总库存万吨焦煤总库存日均铁水产量4500344000293500243000191425009200011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120192020202120222023201820192020202120222023247家钢厂库存平均可用天数天独立焦化企业库存平均可用天数天242422222020181816161414121210101121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111210142019202020212022202320192020202120222023资料来源钢联南华研究01周度策略目录焦煤关注海外焦煤价格走势Contents0203焦炭关注终端需求持续性015重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦炭估值基差与月差焦炭价格基差元吨2305基差季节性元吨160030500035000300000140030000295000120029000025000100028500020000280000800275000150006002700001000026500040050002600002002550000000-2005207209201120120320201820192020202120222023基差右轴日照港仓单焦炭2305焦炭期限结构焦炭05-0937005003500400330030031002002900100270009181018111812181182183184182500-100040506070809101112010203-2002023-03-242022-03-2401620182019202020212022资料来源钢联南华研究焦炭估值现货价格港口价日照港准一级元吨港口价天津港准一级元吨5000450045004000400035003500300030002500250020002000150010001500500100001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212019202020212022202320192020202120222023产地价格准一级焦炭元吨4500400035003000250020002022-04-242022-06-242022-08-242022-10-242022-12-242023-02-24冶金焦准一级湿熄吕梁冶金焦准一级干熄邢台017冶金焦准一级湿熄唐山资料来源钢联南华研究焦炭估值利润与比值焦炭出口利润元吨盘面焦化利润元吨独立焦化企业吨焦平均利润元吨120010001200100010008005008006006000400400200200-50000-200-200-1000-400112131415161718191101111121-400112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023焦煤05焦炭05焦炭05螺纹05焦炭05铁矿051095508550908075450807407065350606055305052504504042519619719819919101911191219119219319419519619719819919101911191219119219319419520620720820920102011201220120220320420201820192020201820192020201820192020018202120222021202220212022资料来源钢联南华研究焦炭驱动供应独立焦企焦炭日产量吨天独立焦企产能利用率8095907585708065756070556550601121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212019202020212022202320192020202120222023钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量吨天钢厂焦化厂产能利用率50964994924890478846864584824480437842761121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111210192019202020212022202320192020202120222023资料来源钢联南华研究