会议纪要点评：
　　“一鹰到底”
　　12月FOMC会议后公布的SEP预测以及鲍威尔的表述均强化了美联储的“鹰派”立场，而从今日公布的相关会议纪要表述来看，依然是“一鹰到底”。我们主要梳理一下关键提法以及增量信息。
　　美联储工作人员对于经济及金融状况的回顾
　　从会议发布前可获得的数据来看，通胀增速、就业市场的紧张程度均较此前有所改善，但仍然居于高位，就业的供需缺口似有收窄的倾向，但是名义工资增速仍然在上行，同时可能被低估。而国内经济产出已经开始出现明显的下行倾向。个人消费支出增速近月明显放缓，投资与工业产出也表现疲弱。金融环境的紧张状况有所缓和，风险溢价下行带动美国国债收益率回落，股指也出现了明显反弹迹象。信贷质量总体保持稳定，但同时出现了一定的边际恶化迹象，包括公司债券违约率以及信用卡和汽车贷款拖欠率上行等。
　　与会人员表述我们重点关注两点
　　消费者支出前景存在相当大的不确定性（详见第14页）。此前在高通胀、强紧缩环境下消费支出依旧保持强劲增速主要是由疫情期间的超额储蓄支撑，而当前超储的消耗并不均衡，低收入家庭的超额储蓄消耗过快，同时当前处于较低水平，而高收入家庭的超额储蓄转化为消费支出的比例较低。
　　再提风险管理（详见第20页）。从历史来看，“风险管理”的出现预示着降息将在12个月内到来，但从与会者提及的两个风险来看，当前的风险管理仍更多的强调通胀长期居高的风险。
　　我们的观点：下半年的“衰退交易”或会反复上演
　　基于去年市场误读联储态度后开展过短暂“转向交易”，美联储与市场沟通显得更加谨慎，美联储现阶段对经济降速的容忍度比较高，关注的重点仍然是通胀，劳动力市场偏紧是2023年上半年降低核心服务价格进而降低通胀水平的关键所在，重申结构性问题短期难改，我们需要在未来适应美国的高利率环境。同时，下半年是否最终会重启降息，除了关注通胀回落幅度外，我们认为还要看当确实出现衰退迹象之时美联储是否能够坚持现有的强硬态度。由此，2023年市场对于联储政策走向的预期分歧将带来更大的资产价格波动，下半年的“衰退交易”或会反复上演。
　　风险提示：地缘冲突超预期发展；全球流动性环境超预期

研究报告全文：策略12月FOMC会议纪要点评及译文2023年1月5日策略研究事件点评会议纪要点评一鹰到底12月FOMC会议后公布的SEP预测以及鲍威尔的表述均强化山证策略团队了美联储的鹰派立场而从今日公布的相关会议纪要表述来看依然是一鹰到底我们主要梳理一下关键提法以及增量信息美联储工作人员对于经济及金融状况的回顾分析师从会议发布前可获得的数据来看通胀增速就业市场的紧张张治程度均较此前有所改善但仍然居于高位就业的供需缺口似有收执业登记编码S0760522030002窄的倾向但是名义工资增速仍然在上行同时可能被低估而国内经济产出已经开始出现明显的下行倾向个人消费支出增速近月邮箱zhangzhisxzqcom明显放缓投资与工业产出也表现疲弱金融环境的紧张状况有所研究助理缓和风险溢价下行带动美国国债收益率回落股指也出现了明显范鑫反弹迹象信贷质量总体保持稳定但同时出现了一定的边际恶化邮箱fanxinsxzqcom迹象包括公司债券违约率以及信用卡和汽车贷款拖欠率上行等与会人员表述我们重点关注两点消费者支出前景存在相当大的不确定性详见第14页此前在高通胀强紧缩环境下消费支出依旧保持强劲增速主要是由疫情期间的超额储蓄支撑而当前超储的消耗并不均衡低收入家庭的超额储蓄消耗过快同时当前处于较低水平而高收入家庭的超额储蓄转化为消费支出的比例较低再提风险管理详见第20页从历史来看风险管理的出现预示着降息将在12个月内到来但从与会者提及的两个风险来看当前的风险管理仍更多的强调通胀长期居高的风险我们的观点下半年的衰退交易或会反复上演基于去年市场误读联储态度后开展过短暂转向交易美联储与市场沟通显得更加谨慎美联储现阶段对经济降速的容忍度比较高关注的重点仍然是通胀劳动力市场偏紧是2023年上半年降低核心服务价格进而降低通胀水平的关键所在重申结构性问题短期难改我们需要在未来适应美国的高利率环境同时下半年是否最终会重启降息除了关注通胀回落幅度外我们认为还要看当确实出现衰退迹象之时美联储是否能够坚持现有的强硬态度由此2023年市场对于联储政策走向的预期分歧将带来更大的资产价格波动下半年的衰退交易或会反复上演风险提示地缘冲突超预期发展全球流动性环境超预期恶请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明1策略研究事件点评目录一会议纪要简评3二会议纪要译文4请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明2策略研究事件点评一会议纪要简评12月FOMC会议后公布的SEP预测以及鲍威尔的表述均强化了美联储的鹰派立场而从今日公布的相关会议纪要表述来看依然是一鹰到底下面我们主要梳理一下关键提法以及增量信息首先是美联储工作人员对于经济及金融状况的回顾整体而言从会议发布前可获得的数据来看通胀增速就业市场的紧张程度均较此前有所改善但仍然居于高位而国内经济产出已经开始出现明显的下行倾向无论是整体PCE核心PCE还是截尾平均PCE均已开始回落但远高于美联储目标水平就业的供需缺口似有收窄的倾向但是名义工资增速仍然在上行同时可能被低估昨夜公布的11月职位空缺数为10458万人基本持平上月高于市场预期空缺率64持平上月其中制造业专业和商业服务反弹零售服务业延续上行信息业教育及医疗延续下行叠加稍早公布的工资增长追踪系统数据11月工资增速仍在上行包括制造业及服务业美国劳动力紧张的情况并未有明显改善而在Q3强劲增长后个人消费支出增速近月明显放缓投资与工业产出也表现疲弱而金融环境的紧张状况有所缓和风险溢价下行带动美国国债收益率回落股指也出现了明显的反弹迹象信贷质量总体保持稳定但同时出现了一定的边际恶化迹象包括公司债券违约率以及信用卡和汽车贷款拖欠率上行等其次有关与会人员的表述我们重点关注两点一是认为消费者支出前景存在相当大的不确定性详见第14页此前在高通胀强紧缩环境下消费支出依旧保持强劲增速主要是由疫情期间的超额储蓄支撑而当前超储的消耗并不均衡低收入家庭的超额储蓄消耗过快同时当前处于较低水平而高收入家庭的超额储蓄转化为消费支出的比例较低二是再提风险管理详见第20页从历史来看风险管理的出现预示着降息将在12个月内到来但结合与会者提及的两个风险来看我们认为当前的风险管理仍更多的强调通胀长期居高的风险这是为何整体纪要依然释放出鹰派意味的关键所在综合而言我们认为基于去年市场误读联储态度后开展过短暂转向交易美联储与市场沟通显得更加谨慎美联储现阶段对经济降速的容忍度比较高关注的重点仍然是通胀劳动力市场偏紧是2023年上半年降低核心服务价格进而降低通胀水平的关键所在重申结构性问题短期难改我们需要在未来适应美国的高利率环境同时下半年是否最终会重启降息除了关注通胀回落幅度外我们认为还要看当确实出现衰退迹象之时美联储是否能够坚持现有的强硬态度由此2023年市场对于联储政策走向的预期分歧将带来更大的资产价格波动下半年的衰退交易或会反复上演请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明3策略研究事件点评二会议纪要译文1金融市场及公开操作市场进展ThemanagerprotemturnedfirsttoadiscussionofdevelopmentsinfinancialmarketsFollowingseveralmonthsoftighteningfinancialconditionseasedovertheperiodasinvestorconcernsaboutglobalrisksedgedlowerandincomingdatashowednascentsignsofamoderationininflationarypressuresCentralbankcommunicationssignalingaslowerpaceofpolicyrateincreasesappearedtocontributetoimprovedsentimentMeasuresofimpliedvolatilityacrossfinancialmarketsdeclinedsomewhatfromtheelevatedlevelsobservedinOctoberConsistentwiththedeclineinvolatilitymodel-basedmeasuressuggestedthatadropintermpremiumsaccountedformuchofthedeclineinTreasuryyieldsovertheperiodEquitymarketsmovedhigherHoweverequitymarketcontactsnotedriskstogrowthaheadandearningsexpectationsforcomingquartershadbeenmarkeddownInforeignexchangemarketsmoderatingconcernsaboutthepotentialforhighlyelevatedUSinterestratesspurredadepreciationintheforeignexchangevalueofthedollarInothermarketdevelopmentsthemanagerprotemnotedthefailureofaprominentcrypto-assetexchangeWhilethespilloversfromthissituationhadbeensignificantamongothercryptolendersandexchangesthecollapsewasnotseenasposingbroadermarketriskstothefinancialsystem首先讨论了金融市场的发展经历了几个月的紧缩之后随着投资者对全球风险的担忧逐渐降低金融状况在这段时间内有所缓解而新的数据也已初步显示出通胀压力放缓的迹象央行传达的信号表明加息节奏开始放缓似乎有助于改善市场情绪从10月份观察到的数据来看金融市场的隐含波动率自高位回落与此相一致的是模型表明近期美国国债收益率下行的主要原因在于期限溢价下降然而权益市场关注到了未来的增长风险同时下调了未来几个季度的盈利预期外汇市场方面对美国利率可能大幅上调的预期有所缓和导致美元汇率贬值在其他市场中委员指出了一家著名加密资产交易所的失败尽管这种情况对其他加密贷款机构和交易所产生了重大的溢出效应但并未被视为会对金融系统构成更广泛影响的市场风险RegardingtheoutlookforinflationintheUnitedStatesinflationcompensationimpliedbyTreasuryInflationProtectedSecuritiesdeclinedovertheperiodrespondingtolower-than-expectedconsumerpriceindexCPIdataandasizabledropinoilpricesHowevertheDesksurvey-basedmeasuresofinflationexpectationswerelittlechangedfromthepriorsurveysuggestingthatfallinginflationriskpremiumsmayhavecontributedtothemovesBothmarket-andsurvey-basedmeasurescontinuedtopointtoexpectationsforamoderationofinflationoverthecomingyear关于美国通胀的前景由于近期的CPI增速低于预期以及油价的大幅下跌财政部通货膨胀保值债券TIPS所隐含的通胀补偿在此期间有所下降然而基于Desk调查的通胀预期指标变化不大表明通胀风险溢价的下降可能是导致以上波动的原因之一而基于市场和调查的指标都继续表明人们预期未来一年通胀将有所缓和Regardingtheoutlookformonetarypolicybothmarket-andDesksurvey-basedmeasuresindicatedexpectations请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明4策略研究事件点评fortheCommitteetomaintainelevatedpolicyratesthrough2023IntheDecembersurveythemedianrespondentsmodalexpectationforthepathofthefederalfundsratein2023shiftedhigherby25basispointsrelativetotheNovembersurveyThesurvey-basedestimateoftheexpectedpolicypathin2024continuedtosuggestadeclineinthetargetrangeforthefederalfundsrateover2024littlechangedfromthepathanticipatedintheNovembersurveyIncontrastthemarket-impliedpathofthefederalfundsratein2024shifteddownbyasmuchaspercentagepointovertheperiodlikelyreflectingdecliningriskpremiums关于货币政策前景基于市场和部门的调查都表明预期联储2023年将维持高利率状态在12月的调查中受访者对2023年联邦基金利率的预期中值较11月上升了25个基点而关于2024年的政策预期调查则继续表明2024年内联邦基金利率目标区间将下降较11月基本不变相较而言2024年市场隐含的联邦基金利率下降了34个百分点或许反映了风险溢价的下降ThemanagerprotemturnednexttoadiscussionofoperationsandmoneymarketsandassessedthatbalancesheetrunoffwasproceedingsmoothlyRepurchaseagreementreporatesfirmedmodestlyrelativetotheovernightreverserepurchaseagreementONRRPfacilityrateovertheperiodwithbalancesheetreductionreportedlycontributinginparttoanincreaseinthedemandforfinancingofTreasurysecuritiesONRRPbalancesdeclinedonnetasmoneymarketfundsshiftedinvestmentsoutoftheONRRPfacilityreportedlyinfavorofhigherratesavailableinrepomarkets委员之后讨论了公开操作与货币市场并评估缩减资产负债表正在顺利进行在此期间回购利率相对于ONRRP利率小幅走强据报道缩减资产负债表在一定程度上导致了对国债融资需求的增加由于货币基金将资金转移出ONRRP工具ONRRP净余额下降支持回购市场利率走升InrecentmonthsbankscontinuedtoincreasetheiruseofwholesalefundingInadditionsurveyinformationsuggestedthatbanksexpectedtomovedepositratesmodestlyhigherrelativetothetargetrangeincomingmonthsOvertimegreatercompetitionamongbanksforfundingcouldcontributetodrawdownsintheONRRPfacilityStaffindicatedthattheywouldcontinuetomonitormoneymarketconditionscloselyasbalancesheetreductionproceeds最近几个月银行继续增加对批发融资的使用此外调查信息显示银行预计在未来几个月将存款利率提高至略高于目标范围的水平随着时间的推移银行之间更激烈的融资竞争可能会导致ONRRP余额减少工作人员表示在缩表的过程中他们将继续密切监测货币市场状况LookingaheadtoyearendmarketparticipantsanticipatedlimitedpressuresThemanagerprotemnotedthatiftransitorypressuresemergedinmoneymarketstheFederalReservesbackstopfacilitiesareavailabletosupporteffectivepolicyimplementationandsmoothmarketfunctioning展望年底市场参与者预计压力有限该委员指出如果货币市场出现暂时性压力美联储的支持工具可用于维持有效的政策实施和平稳的市场运作2经济形势回顾TheinformationavailableatthetimeoftheDecember1314meetingsuggestedthatUSrealgrossdomestic请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明5策略研究事件点评productGDPwasincreasingatamodestpaceinthefourthquarterof2022afterexpandingstronglyinthethirdquarterLabormarketconditionseasedsomewhatoverOctoberandNovemberbutremainedquitetightConsumerpriceinflationasmeasuredbythe12-monthpercentchangeinthepriceindexforpersonalconsumptionexpendituresPCEsteppeddowninOctoberbutcontinuedtobeelevated根据会议期间可获得的信息显示美国实际GDP在经历了Q3的强劲增长后Q4将温和增长劳动力市场状况在10月和11月有所缓解但仍然相当紧张以PCE同比增速衡量的消费者价格在10月份有所下降但仍在高位TotalnonfarmpayrollemploymentpostedsolidgainsinOctoberandNovemberthatwereslowerthantheaveragemonthlypaceseenovertheearlierpartoftheyearTheunemploymentratemovedup02percentagepointto37percentinOctoberandremainedatthatrateinNovemberOnbalancetheunemploymentrateforAfricanAmericansedgeddownoverthosetwomonthswhiletheunemploymentrateforHispanicsincreasedslightlytheunemploymentratesforbothgroupsremainedabovethenationalmeasureBoththelaborforceparticipationrateandtheemployment-topopulationratiodeclinedalittleoverthepasttwomonthsTheprivate-sectorjobopeningsrateasmeasuredbytheJobOpeningsandLaborTurnoverSurveymovedbackdowninOctoberbutremainedhigh10月和11月美国非农就业总人数稳步增长但增速低于今年早些时候的月平均增速失业率在10月份上升了02个百分点至37并在11月份持平10月总的来说非裔美国人的失业率在这两个月里小幅下降而西班牙裔美国人的失业率略有上升这两个群体的失业率仍然高于国家标准在过去的两个月里劳动参与率和就业人口比率都略有下降根据职位空缺和劳动力流动调查私营部门的职位空缺率在10月份有所回落但仍处于高位NominalwagegrowthcontinuedtobeelevatedandremainedabovethepacejudgedtobeconsistentwiththeFOMCs2percentinflationobjectiveAveragehourlyearningsrose51percentoverthe12monthsendinginNovemberclosetothepacerecordedintheemploymentcostindexofhourlycompensationintheprivatesectoroverthe12monthsendinginSeptemberCompensationperhourCPHinthebusinesssectorrose40percentoverthefourquartersendinginthethirdquarterbutthereportedincreaselikelyunderstatedthetruepaceofincreaseinCPHasthelowersecond-quarteremploymentdatafromtheQuarterlyCensusofEmploymentandWageshadnotyetbeenincorporatedintheCPHmeasure名义工资增速继续上行且仍然高于美联储2的通胀目标水平11月平均时薪同比增51接近ECI雇佣成本指数Q3增幅在截至今年Q3的过去四个季度中商业部门平均时薪同比增长了40但统计数据可能低估了平均时薪的真实增长速度Q2较低的就业数据尚未被纳入测量ConsumerpriceinflationremainedelevatedbuthadeasedinrecentmonthsTotalPCEpriceinflationwas60percentoverthe12monthsendinginOctober03percentagepointbelowtheSeptemberfigureCorePCEpriceinflationwhichexcludeschangesinconsumerenergypricesandmanyconsumerfoodpriceswas50percentoverthe12monthsendinginOctoberdown02percentagepointfromitsSeptemberreadingThetrimmedmean请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明6策略研究事件点评measureof12-monthPCEpriceinflationconstructedbytheFederalReserveBankofDallasremainedat47percentinOctoberInNovemberthe12-monthchangeintheCPIsteppeddownto71percentandcoreCPIinflationdroppedto60percentTheCPIalongwithdatafromtheproducerpriceindexpointedtoafurtherslowinginPCEpriceinflationinNovemberApreliminaryestimateofthestaffscommoninflationexpectationsindexwhichcombinesinformationfrommanyindicatorsofinflationexpectationsandinflationcompensationedgeddowninthefourthquarterbutcontinuedtobeabovepre-pandemiclevels消费者价格通胀仍居于高位但最近几个月增速有所放缓10月份总体PCE同比增速为60较9月回落03个百分点核心CPI同比增50较9月下降02个百分点达拉斯联储编制的截尾平均PCE同比增速保持在4711月CPI同比增速降至71核心CPI通胀下降至600CPI和PPI表明11月份PCE通胀进一步放缓通胀预期指数综合了通胀预期和通胀补偿的多个指标在第四季度小幅下降但仍高于大流行前的水平AfterexpandingatamoderatepaceinthethirdquarterrealPCEgrowthappearedtohavepickedupinthefourthquarterIncontrastresidentialinvestmentlookedtobecontractingsharplyfurtherandgrowthinbusinessfixedinvestmentseemedtobeslowingmarkedlywithtepidgainsinequipmentandintangiblesspendingandcontinueddeclinesinnonresidentialstructuresinvestmentManufacturingproductionincreasedonlymodestlyinOctoberandtheavailabledatapointedtoadeclineinNovemberAdecreaseinfactoryoutputwouldbeconsistentwithrecentreadingsfromnationalandregionalmanufacturingsurveyswhichshoweddecliningnewordersandadrawdowninorderbacklogs在Q3温和扩张后实际个人消费支出增速Q4有所加快住宅投资进一步大幅收缩企业固定投资增速明显放缓设备和无形资产支出增长乏力非住宅投资持续下降10月份制造业产出仅小幅增长现有数据显示11月份有所下降工厂产出下降与近期全国和地区制造业调查的数据一致后者显示新订单下降积压订单减少AfternarrowinginthethirdquarterthenominalUSinternationaltradedeficitwidenedinOctoberRealgoodsexportsfellledbydeclinesinexportsofindustrialsuppliesandconsumergoodsRealgoodsimportsrosedrivenbyincreasesinimportsofindustrialsupplieswhichmorethanoffsetdeclinesinimportsofcapitalgoodsandconsumergoodsExportsofservicesroseinpartastravelexportscontinuedtorecoverwhileimportsofserviceswerelittlechanged美国名义国际贸易逆差在Q3收窄后10月再度走阔实际商品出口萎缩主因工业用品和消费品出口下降实际商品进口上升工业用品的进口增加远远抵消了资本品和消费品进口的下降服务出口上升部分原因是旅游出口继续复苏而服务进口变化不大ForeigneconomicactivitygrewatamoderatepaceinthethirdquarterbutmorerecentdatapointedtoweakeninggrowthweigheddownbytheeconomicfalloutofRussiaswaragainstUkraineandaCOVID-19-relatedslowdowninChinaHighinflationcontinuedtocontributetoadeclineinrealdisposableincomeswhichtogetherwithdisruptionstoenergysuppliesdepressedeconomicactivityespeciallyinEuropeInChinaauthoritiesbeganto请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明7策略研究事件点评easesocialrestrictionsevenasCOVIDcasessurgedraisingtheprospectofsignificantdisruptionstoeconomicactivityintheneartermbutalsoafasterreopeningWeakerglobaldemandandhighinterestratesalsoweighedonactivityinemergingmarketeconomiesDespitetentativesignsofeasinginforeignheadlineinflationcoreinflationarypressuresremainedelevatedinmanycountriesInresponsetohighinflationmanycentralbanksfurthertightenedmonetarypolicyalbeitataslowerpaceinsomecases第三季度外国经济活动温和增长但最近的数据表明受俄乌战争影响以及中国经济放缓拖累外国经济增速下行高通胀继续导致实际可支配收入下降再加上能源供应中断外国经济活动受到抑制特别是欧洲在中国尽管新冠肺炎病例激增但当局仍打算放松社会限制这增加了短期内经济活动受到严重干扰的可能性但也加快了重新开放的速度全球需求走弱和利率高企也拖累了新兴市场经济体的经济活动尽管国外的总体通胀初步出现了放缓迹象但许多国家的核心通胀压力仍然居高不下为应对高通胀许多中央银行进一步收紧货币政策尽管收紧速度或有放缓3金融形势回顾OvertheintermeetingperiodTreasuryyieldsandmeasuresofinflationcompensationdeclinedonnetandtheimpliedpathofthefederalfundsratein2023endedmodestlylowerStockmarketindexesroseonbalancelikelyreflectingreducedconcernsabouttheinflationoutlookandmarketvolatilitydeclinednotablyBorrowingcostsdeclinedonnetovertheintermeetingperiodCreditflowsmoderatedabitinrecentmonthsandthecreditqualityofbusinessesandmosthouseholdsremainedsolid在两次会议期间美国国债收益率和通胀补偿下行2023年隐含联邦基金利率小幅下降总的来说股市指数上涨可能反映了人们对通胀前景的担忧有所缓和同时市场波动性显著下降在两次会议期间借贷净成本下降最近几个月信贷流动有所放缓企业和大多数家庭的信贷质量保持稳健Theexpectedpathofthefederalfundsrateimpliedbyastraightreadoffinancialmarketquotesendedtheintermeetingperiodlowerlargelyreflectingdatareleasesthatpointedtoalarger-than-expectedmoderationininflationMedium-to-longer-termnominalTreasuryyieldsdeclinedsubstantiallyovertheintermeetingperioddrivenprimarilybylower-than-expectedinflationdatareleaseswhichappearedtopromptasubstantialreductionininvestorsconcernsaboutthepossibilitythatinflationwouldremainhighforalongperiodInlinewiththosedevelopmentsinflationcompensationmeasuresbasedoninflationswapsdeclinednotablyespeciallyforshortermaturities金融市场所隐含的联邦基金利率预期下行在很大程度上是因为数据表明通胀放缓幅度大于预期中长期名义美国国债收益率大幅下降主要是受通胀数据低于预期的影响这似乎缓和了投资者对通胀可能长期保持在高位的担忧与此同时基于通货膨胀掉期的通货膨胀补偿显著下降特别是短期限BroadstockpriceindexesincreasedlikelyreflectingreducedconcernsabouttheinflationoutlookandtheassociatedimplicationsforthefuturepathofpolicyOnnettheone-monthoption-impliedvolatilityontheSP500theVIXdecreasednotablyandwasaroundthemiddleofitsrangesincemid-2020Inlinewithreducedinvestorconcernsabouttheinflationoutlookspreadsofinterestratesoncorporatedebtmortgagebackedsecurities请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明8策略研究事件点评andmunicipalbondstocomparabledurationTreasuryyieldsallnarrowedovertheintermeetingperiod股指上涨或许反映出人们对通胀前景以及对未来政策影响的担忧有所缓和标普500的VIX波动率显著下降居于2020年年中以来的中间水平随着投资者对通胀前景的担忧减弱公司债抵押贷款支持证券和市政债券与可比期限国债收益率的利差均有所收窄Conditionsinshort-termfundingmarketsremainedstableovertheintermeetingperiodwiththeNovemberincreaseinthetargetrangeforthefederalfundsrateandtheassociatedincreasesintheFederalReservesadministeredratespassingthroughquicklytoovernightmoneymarketratesInsecuredmarketsreporateswerebelowtheONRRPofferingratelessfrequentlythaninthepreviousintermeetingperiodDailytake-upintheONRRPfacilitydeclinedmodestlyconsistentwiththerecentfirminginovernightreporatesNetyieldsonmoneymarketfundsrosefurtherovertheintermeetingperiodmostlypassingthroughtheincreaseinadministeredrateswhilebankdepositratesincreasedonlyslightlyinOctoberandNovember短期融资市场在两次会议间隔中保持稳定11月联邦基金利率目标区间以及美联储管理利率的上调迅速传导至隔夜货币市场回购利率低于ONRRP发行利率的频率低于前次会议ONRRP工具的日接收量小幅下降与最近隔夜回购利率的坚挺相一致货币市场基金净收益率在会议期间进一步上涨而银行存款利率在10月和11月仅小幅上升Foreignfinancialconditionsbroadlyeasedovertheintermeetingperiodlargelydrivenbylower-than-expectedUSinflationdataTheforeignexchangevalueofthedollardepreciatedagainstmostforeigncurrenciesparticularlyagainstthoseofadvancedforeigneconomiesinpartreflectinganarrowingofnear-termyielddifferentialsbetweentheUnitedStatesandotheradvancedeconomiesInvestorsreactedpositivelytonewsofaneasingofCOVIDrestrictionsinChinawhichdroveriskyassetpricessignificantlyhigherdespitenear-termchallengesassociatedwiththehealthpolicyshiftEmergingmarketfundoutflowsmoderatedandturnedtoinflowslaterintheintermeetingperiodOptionimpliedvolatilitymeasuresforexchangeratesandbenchmarkforeignyieldsdeclinedbutremainedelevatedbyhistoricalnormsamidahighdegreeofuncertaintyaroundglobalinflationandtheprospectsforareopeningoftheChineseeconomy外国金融状况缓和主因美国通胀数据低于预期美元对多数外国货币贬值特别是对发达外国经济体货币这在一定程度上反映了美国与其他发达经济体之间的短期收益率差正在缩小投资者对中国放松限制的消息反应积极尽管卫生政策转变带来了短期挑战但这一消息大幅推高了风险资产价格新兴市场资金流出放缓期权汇率和基准外国收益率的隐含波动率下降但在全球通胀和中国经济重新开放前景存在高度不确定性的情况下仍未达到历史正常水平IndomesticcreditmarketschangesinborrowingcostsweremixedduringtheintermeetingperiodbutremainedabovelevelsobservedattheendoftheprevioustighteningcycleYieldsforcorporatebondsdeclinedwhileborrowingcostsforleveragedloansremainedatanelevatedlevelBankinterestratesforcommercialandindustrialCIloanscontinuedtotrendupinthethirdquarterMunicipalbondyieldsalsodecreasedacrossratingcategoriesResidentialmortgageratesfellonnetaftertheNovemberFOMCmeetingIncontrastinterestratesin请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明9策略研究事件点评creditcardofferscontinuedtoincreasereflectingthehigherprimeratethatwasquicklypassedthroughInterestratesonautoloansalsorosesteadilythroughNovember就国内信贷市场而言两次会议期间借贷成本的变化并不一致但均高于上一轮紧缩周期结束时的水平公司债券的收益率下降而杠杆贷款的借贷成本仍维持在创纪录的水平Q3商业和工业银行贷款利率继续呈上升趋势市政债券的收益率有所下降11月FOMC会议后住宅抵押贷款利率下降而信用卡贷款利率继续上升反映出较高的优惠利率被迅速转嫁11月份汽车贷款利率也稳步上升CreditcontinuedtobegenerallyavailabletobusinessesandhouseholdsbuthighborrowingcostsappearedtoweighonfinancingvolumesinmanymarketsIssuanceofinvestment-gradecorporatebondsreboundedsomewhatinlateOctoberandNovemberfromearliersubduedlevelswhilespeculative-gradeissuanceremainedsoftNewlaunchesofleveragedloanspickedupinNovemberparticularlyforhigher-ratedfirms企业和家庭普遍仍可获得信贷但借贷成本高企对多个市场的融资量构成压力10月末以及11月投资级公司债券的发行量自低位反弹而投机级公司债券的发行量仍然疲软9月新发行的杠杆贷款有所增加特别是对评级较高的公司BusinessloanriginationscontinuedtoexpandinOctoberandNovemberbutataslowerpacethanobservedinpreviousmonthsCIloanscontinuedtogrowinOctoberandNovemberbutdeceleratedrelativetothethird-quarterpacemoderatingtherobustrateofgrowthobservedearlierthisyearNonethelessthevolumeofCIlendingremainedsolidoverallCommercialrealestateCREloansoutstandingatcommercialbankscontinuedtoincreaseinOctoberandNovemberbuttherecentpacewassomewhatlowerthaninpreviousmonthsInadditionbanksincreasedCREoriginationstomultifamilyandindustrialpropertiesrelativetoofficepropertiesreflectingcautioninthecontextofrisingofficevacanciesMoreovercommercialmortgage-backedsecuritiesCMBSissuancesoftenedsomewhatinOctoberamidelevatedfinancingcostsandtighterunderwritngstandardsCreditavailabilitytosmallbusinessesappearedtohavetightenedfurtherthisfallwiththeshareofsmallfirmsreportingthatitwasmoredifficulttoobtaincreditthanthreemonthsearliertrendingupthroughNovember10月11月的企业贷款发放继续扩张但速度低于前几个月CI贷款继续增长但相对于Q3的增速有所放缓尽管如此企业信贷贷款总额总体上保持稳健商业银行的商业不动产CRE贷款余额在继续增加增长速度略低于前几个月此外相对于办公物业银行增加了多户和工业物业的CRE发放反映了其在空置率上升背景下的谨慎态度此外由于融资成本上升和承销标准收紧10月份商业抵押贷款支持证券CMBS的发行有所放缓小企业可获得的信贷在今年秋季似乎进一步收紧报告称11月比三个月前更难获得信贷的小企业比例呈上升趋势Creditwasreadilyavailableintheresidentialmortgagemarketforhigh-credit-scoreborrowerswhometstandardconformingloancriteriaCreditavailabilityforhouseholdswithlowercreditscoreswasconsiderablytighteratlevelscomparablewithwhatprevailedbeforethepandemicThenumberofhomepurchasesandrefinancemortgageratelocksedgedloweratsubduedlevelsdespiterecentdeclinesinmortgageinterestratesIncontrasthomeequitylinesofcreditHELOCsgrewnotablyinrecentmonthsonnetpotentiallyreflectinghomeowners请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明10策略研究事件点评usingHELOCsasapreferredwayofextractinghomeequityinthepresenceofhighmortgageratesConsumercreditremainedavailableformostconsumersthroughSeptemberwithautoloansandcreditcarddebtgrowingatarobustpaceBankcreditdataalsoindicatethattheexpansionincreditcardbalancescontinuedinOctoberbeforeslowinginearlyNovember就住宅抵押贷款市场而言信用评分高符合标准的借款人很容易获得贷款而信用评分较低的家庭可获得的信贷相当紧张与大流行前的水平相当尽管最近抵押贷款利率有所下降但购房数量和再融资抵押贷款利率仍小幅下行而房屋净值信贷额度HELOCs近月显著增长这可能反映了在抵押贷款利率高企的情况下房主将HELOCs作为提取房屋信贷的首选方式整个9月份大多数消费者仍然可以获得消费信贷汽车贷款和信用卡债务以强劲的速度增长同时银行信贷数据也显示信用卡余额10月份继续扩张11月初放缓ThecreditqualityofnonfinancialcorporationsremainedsolidThevolumeofspeculative-gradecorporatebonddowngradesslightlyexceededupgradesinOctoberandNovemberwhileforinvestment-gradecorporatebondsthevolumeofupgradesturnedpositiveonnetinNovemberLeveragedloansexperiencednetdowngradesinOctoberbutthepaceofnetdowngradesslowedsubstantiallyinrecentweeksDefaultratesoncorporatebondsandleveragedloansremainedatverylowlevelsHowevermeasuresofexpecteddefaultprobabilitiesforcorporatebondsandleveragedloanshadincreasedfromtheirlevelsatthebeginningoftheyearinrecentmonthsOverallthecreditqualityofmunicipalitiesremainedrobustamidstrongrevenuesatstateandlocalgovernmentsThecreditqualityofbusinessesthatborrowfrombanksremainedsoundonbalanceDelinquenciesonCIloansstayedflatandthoseonsmallbusinessesloanscontinuedtoedgeupbutdelinquenciesremainedlowrelativetohistoricallevelsInadditionthecreditqualityofnon-agencyCMBSloanborrowersdeterioratedslightlywithaveragedelinquencyratestickingupinSeptemberandOctoberdrivenbytheofficeandretailsectors非金融企业信贷质量稳定10月和11月投机级公司债被下调的数量略高于被上调的数量而投资级公司债被上调的净数量在11月转为正值杠杆贷款在10月份经历了净降级但最近几周净降级的速度大幅放缓公司债券和杠杆贷款的违约率仍然处于非常低的水平然而最近几个月衡量公司债券和杠杆贷款预期违约概率的指标已较年初水平有所上升总体而言在州和地方政府收入强劲的情况下市政当局的信贷质量依然强劲从银行借款的企业信贷质量总体良好CI贷款的违约率保持不变小企业贷款的违约率延续小幅上升但仍然处于历史低位此外非机构CMBS贷款借款人的信贷质量略有恶化办公和零售行业的推动下9月和10月的平均拖欠率有所上升ThecreditqualityofmosthouseholdsremainedsolidoverallDelinquenciesonconventionalmortgagescontinuedtotrenddownthroughOctoberwhilethoseonFederalHousingAdministrationmortgagestickedupabitfromlowlevelsIncontrastdelinquencyratesforcreditcardsandautoloanscontinuedtoriseoverthethirdquarterWhiledelinquencyratesoncreditcardsremainedlowrelativetotheirhistoricalrangethoseonautoloanssurpassedtheirpre-pandemicpeak大多数家庭的信贷质量总体上保持稳健传统抵押贷款的违约率在10月份继续呈下降趋势而联邦住房管请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明11策略研究事件点评理局FederalHousingAdministration的抵押贷款违约率则自低位略有上升然而信用卡和汽车贷款的拖欠率在Q3继续增长虽然信用卡不良率仍然处于历史低位但汽车贷款不良率超过了疫情前的峰值4经济展望TheforecastforUSeconomicactivitypreparedbythestafffortheDecemberFOMCmeetingwasnotasweakastheNovemberprojectionRecentdatasuggestedthatrealGDPgrowthinthesecondhalfof2022wasstrongerthanpreviouslyexpectedbuteconomicgrowthwasstillforecasttoslowmarkedlyin2023fromitssecond-halfpaceBroadfinancialconditionswereprojectedtobesomewhatlessrestrictivethanpreviouslyassumedastheeffectsofahigherpathforequityvaluesandalowerpathforthedollarmorethanoffsetahighermedium-termtrajectoryforinterestratesNeverthelesstheforecastforUSrealGDPgrowththrough2025remainedsubduedThestaffslightlylowereditsoutlookforpotentialoutputreflectingalowerexpectedtrendinlaborforceparticipationMoreoverthestaffassumedaslowerpaceofdeclineinthenaturalrateofunemploymentoverthenearterminresponsetorecentestimatessuggestingthatjob-matchingefficiencywasnotimprovingasfastaspreviouslyanticipatedWithallthesechangesoutputwasexpectedtomovebelowthestaffsestimateofpotentialneartheendof2024ayearlaterthaninthepreviousforecastandtoremainbelowpotentialin2025Likewisetheunemploymentratewasexpectedtomoveabovethestaffsestimateofitsnaturalrateneartheendof2024andremainaboveitin2025美联储工作人员在12月FOMC会议上的美国经济活动预测并不像11月那么疲弱最近的数据显示2022年下半年的实际GDP增长强于此前预期但预计2023年的经济增长仍将较今年下半年显著放缓由于股票走高和美元走低的影响远远抵消了中期利率走高的影响预计总体金融状况的限制性比之前预测的要小然而对2025年美国的实际GDP增长预测仍然低迷美联储略微下调了对潜在产出的预期反映出劳动力参与率的预期较低此外最近的估计表明工作匹配效率的提高速度没有不及此前预期因此工作人员认为短期内自然失业率的下降速度会较为缓慢由于以上变化预计产出将在接近2024年底时低于潜在产出比之前的预测晚了一年并在2025年继续低于潜在产出同时失业率预计将在2024年底超过自然失业率的估计并在2025年保持在这一水平之上Onafour-quarterchangebasistotalPCEpriceinflationwasexpectedtobe55percentin2022whilecoreinflationwasexpectedtobe47percentbothlowerthanintheNovemberprojectionWiththeeffectsofsupplydemandimbalancesingoodsmarketsexpectedtounwindfurtherandlaborandproductmarketsprojectedtobecomelesstightthestaffcontinuedtoforecastthatinflationwoulddeclinemarkedlyoverthenexttwoyearsCoregoodsinflationwasanticipatedtoslowfurtherhousingservicesinflationwasexpectedtopeakin2023andthenmovedownwhilecorenon-housingservicesinflationwasforecasttomovedownaswagegrowtheasedIn2025bothtotalandcorePCEpriceinflationwereexpectedtobenear2percent预计2022年PCE增长55核心PCE增长47均低于11月的预测值由于商品市场供需缺口有望改善劳动力和产品市场的紧张程度预计将有所缓和美联储工作人员预测在接下来的两年里通货膨胀将显著下降核心商品通胀预计将进一步放缓住房服务通胀预计将在2023年见顶然后下降而核心非请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明12策略研究事件点评住房服务通胀预计将随着工资增长放缓而下降2025年PCE及核心PCE增速预计都将接近2WithinflationstillelevatedthestaffcontinuedtoviewtheriskstotheinflationprojectionasskewedtotheupsideMoreoverthesluggishgrowthinrealprivatedomesticspendingexpectedoverthenextyearasubduedglobaleconomicoutlookandpersistentlytightfinancialconditionswereseenastiltingtheriskstothedownsidearoundthebaselineprojectionforrealeconomicactivityandthestaffstillviewedthepossibilityofarecessionsometimeoverthenextyearasaplausiblealternativetothebaseline由于通货膨胀仍处于高位美联储工作人员依旧认为通货膨胀预测的风险向上升方向倾斜此外预计明年实际私人支出增长乏力全球经济前景黯淡金融状况持续紧张以上因素均使实际经济活动的风险在基线预测附近向下行方向倾斜明年某个时候发生衰退的可能性是基线的合理替代方案5与会者对当前情况及经济前景的看法InconjunctionwiththisFOMCmeetingparticipantssubmittedtheirprojectionsofthemostlikelyoutcomesforrealGDPgrowththeunemploymentrateandinflationforeachyearfrom2022through2025andoverthelongerrunbasedontheirindividualassessmentsofappropriatemonetarypolicyincludingthepathofthefederalfundsrateThelonger-runprojectionsrepresentedeachparticipantsassessmentoftheratetowhicheachvariablewouldbeexpectedtoconvergeovertimeunderappropriatemonetarypolicyandintheabsenceoffurthershockstotheeconomyASummaryofEconomicProjectionswasreleasedtothepublicfollowingtheconclusionofthemeeting在本次FOMC会议上与会者根据个人对货币政策的适当评估包括联邦基金利率的走势提交了他们对2022年至2025年以及更长期的年度实际GDP增长失业率和通胀的预测长期预测代表了每位参与者对在适当的货币政策和经济没有进一步冲击的情况下随着时间的推移每个变量预期收敛的评估会议结束后经济预测摘要将向公众发布IntheirdiscussionofcurrenteconomicconditionsparticipantsnotedthatrecentindicatorspointedtomodestgrowthofspendingandproductionNonethelessjobgainshadbeenrobustinrecentmonthsandtheunemploymentratehadremainedlowInflationremainedelevatedreflectingsupplyanddemandimbalancesrelatedtothepandemichigherfoodandenergypricesandbroaderpricepressuresParticipantsrecognizedthatRussiaswaragainstUkrainewascausingtremendoushumanandeconomichardshipThewarandrelatedeventswerecontributingtoupwardpressureoninflationandwereweighingonglobaleconomicactivityAgainstthisbackgroundparticipantscontinuedtobehighlyattentivetoinflationrisks在讨论当前经济状况时与会者指出最近的指标显示支出和生产出现温和增长尽管如此近几个月来就业增长强劲失业率仍然很低通胀居高不下反映出与大流行有关的供需失衡食品和能源价格上涨以及更广泛的价格压力与会者认识到俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争造成了巨大影响战争和相关事件加剧了通胀上行的压力并对全球经济活动造成了冲击在此背景下与会者继续高度关注通胀风险Participantsobservedthatthegrowthofeconomicactivityhadslowedsignificantlyin2022fromthepreviousyearsrobustpacepartlyinresponsetotheCommitteespolicyactionsTheeffectsofthoseactionswereespeciallynotableininterest-sensitivesectorsparticularlyhousingParticipantsremarkedthatalthoughrealGDP请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明13策略研究事件点评appearedtohavereboundedmoderatelyinthesecondhalfof2022afterdecliningsomewhatinthefirsthalfeconomicactivityappearedlikelytoexpandin2023atapacewellbelowitstrendgrowthrateWithinflationremainingunacceptablyhighparticipantsexpectedthatasustainedperiodofbelow-trendrealGDPgrowthwouldbeneededtobringaggregatesupplyandaggregatedemandintobetterbalanceandtherebyreduceinflationarypressures与会者注意到与前一年的强劲增长相比2022年的经济增长显著放缓部分源于美联储的政策行动这些行动对利率敏感的行业的影响尤其显著特别是房地产与会者指出尽管实际GDP已在2022年下半年温和反弹但2023年的经济活动增速或将远低于其趋势增长率由于通货膨胀率仍然高得令人无法接受与会者预计需要一段持续低于趋势水平的实际GDP增长才能使总供给和总需求更好地平衡从而降低通胀压力IntheirdiscussionofthehouseholdsectorparticipantsnotedthatgrowthinconsumerspendinginSeptemberandOctoberhadbeenstrongerthantheyhadpreviouslyexpectedlikelysupportedbyastronglabormarketandhouseholdsrunningdownexcesssavingsaccumulatedduringthepandemicAcoupleofparticipantsremarkedthatexcesssavingslikelywouldcontinuetosupportconsumptionspendingforawhileAcoupleofotherparticipantshowevercommentedthatexcesssavingsparticularlyamonglow-incomehouseholdsappearedtobeloweranddecliningmorerapidlythanpreviouslythoughtorthatthesavingsthemajorityofwhichappearedtobeheldbyhigher-incomehouseholdsmightcontinuetobelargelyunspentSeveralparticipantsremarkedthatbudgetswerestretchedforlow-to-moderate-incomehouseholdsandthatmanyconsumerswereshiftingtheirspendingtolessexpensivealternativesTheyalsoobservedthatmanyhouseholdswereincreasinglyusingcredittofinancespendingOverallparticipantsassessedthattherewasconsiderableuncertaintyaroundtheconsumerspendingoutlookParticipantscommentedthathighermortgageinterestrateshadnotablyrestrainedhousingactivityandthattheyexpectedhousingactivitytoremainweakAcoupleofparticipantsremarkedonanecdotesorconcernsfrombuildercontactsaboutcontractcancellationsbypurchasersnolongerabletoqualifyforloansathigherinterestrates在讨论家庭部门时与会者指出9月和10月的消费支出增长强于预期可能是受到强劲的劳动力市场以及大流行期间积累的超额储蓄支撑一些与会者表示超额储蓄可能会在一段时间内继续支持消费支出然而另有一些与会者认为超额储蓄特别是低收入家庭的超额储蓄水平比预期的要低而且下降得更快或者大部分的超额储蓄是由高收入家庭持有后续仍将难以被启用部分与会者还指出中低收入家庭的预算紧张许多消费者正在将支出转移到更便宜的替代品上他们还注意到许多家庭越来越多地使用信贷来支付支出总体而言与会者认为消费者支出前景存在相当大的不确定性抵押贷款利率的上升显著抑制了住房活动他们预计住房活动仍将疲软几位与会者谈到了建筑商联系人关于买方不再有资格以更高的利率获得贷款而取消合同的担忧Withregardtothebusinesssectorparticipantsnotedthatgrowthininvestmentspendingappearedmodestandwasbeingrestrainedbyhighborrowingcostsandanoutlookforslowgrowthoffinaldemandalthoughviewson请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明14策略研究事件点评investmentprospectsvariedacrossbusinessesandDistrictsBasedondiscussionswithDistrictcontactsaswellasasurveyoffirmschieffinancialofficerssomeparticipantscommentedthatwhilebusinessesweregenerallyoptimisticabouttheirownprospectstheyexpressedincreasingconcernaboutthegeneraleconomicoutlookfor2023ParticipantsnotedsignsofcontinuedeasinginsupplybottleneckswithacouplecitingDistrictcontactsreportsofdeclinesinshippingcostsanddeliverytimesEvensoparticipantsremarkedthattheimprovementsinsupplychainshadnotbeenuniformandsupplyshortagesremainedforsometypesofgoodsParticipantsalsodiscussedthedevelopmentsinenergyandagriculturalsectorsSeveralparticipantscommentedthattheysawdiminishedrisksofseveredisruptionfromtheEuropeanUnionsembargoandtheGroupofSevenspricecaponRussianoilexportsAcoupleofparticipantsnotedthathighcostsforinputslikedieselfeedandfertilizerwerecreatingchallengesfortheagriculturalsector关于商业部门与会者指出尽管不同企业和地区对投资前景的看法各不相同但投资支出的增长较为缓慢并受到高借贷成本和最终需求增长疲弱前景的限制根据与地区联系人的讨论以及对公司首席财务官的调查一些与会者评论说虽然企业普遍对自己的前景感到乐观但他们对2023年的总体经济前景越来越担忧与会者注意到供应瓶颈持续缓解的迹象有几位地区联系人报告称运输成本和交货时间都有所下降尽管如此与会者认为供应链的改善并不一致某些种类的商品仍然供应短缺与会者还讨论了能源和农业部门的发展一些与会者评论说他们认为欧盟禁运和七国集团对俄罗斯石油的出口价格上限造成严重破坏的风险有所降低部分与会者指出柴油饲料和化肥等投入物的高成本给农业部门带来了挑战ParticipantsobservedthatthelabormarkethadremainedverytightwiththeunemploymentratenearahistoricallylowlevelrobustpayrollgainsahighlevelofjobvacanciesandelevatednominalwagegrowthSeveralparticipantscommentedthatthereweretentativesignsoflabormarketimbalancesimprovingincludingdeclinesinjobopeningsandquitsoverthesecondhalfof2022aswellasreportsfromDistrictcontactsthattheywereseeingmorequalifiedjobapplicantsforopenpositionsthanearlierintheyearSomeparticipantspointedoutthatpayrollgainshadremainedrobustevenastheyslowedinrecentmonthsNeverthelesstheynotedthatsomeothermeasuresofemploymentsuchasthosebasedontheBureauofLaborStatisticshouseholdsurveyandtheQuarterlyCensusofEmploymentandWagessuggestedthatjobgrowthin2022mayhavebeenweakerthanindicatedbypayrollemploymentParticipantsgenerallyconcludedthatthereremainedalargeimbalancebetweenlaborsupplyandlabordemandasindicatedbythestill-largenumberofjobopeningsandelevatednominalwagegrowthParticipantscommentedthatlabordemandhadremainedstrongtodatedespitetheslowdownineconomicgrowthwithafewremarkingthatsomebusinesscontactsreportedthattheywouldbekeentoretainworkerseveninthefaceofslowingdemandforoutputbecauseoftheirrecentexperiencesoflaborshortagesandhiringchallengesWiththelaborforceparticipationratelittlechangedsincethebeginningof2022someparticipantscommentedthatlaborsupplyappearedtobeconstrainedbystructuralfactorssuchasearlyretirementsreducedavailabilityorincreasedcostofchildcaremorecostlytransportationandreducedimmigrationUnderanappropriatelyrestrictivepathof请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明15策略研究事件点评monetarypolicyparticipantsexpectedlabormarketsupplyanddemandtocomeintobetterbalanceovertimeeasingupwardpressuresonnominalwagesandpricesInthecontextofachievingtheCommitteesbroad-basedandinclusivemaximum-employmentgoalanumberofparticipantscommentedthatasthelabormarketmovedintobetterbalanceemploymentrateforsomedemographicgroupsparticularlyAfricanAmericansandHispanicswouldlikelyincreasebymorethanthenationalaverage与会者指出劳动力市场仍然非常紧张失业率接近历史最低水平工资增长强劲职位空缺水平高名义工资增长加快多位与会者评论说有初步迹象表明劳动力市场失衡的状况有所改善包括2022年下半年以来职位空缺和离职人数下降以及部分地区报告称他们看到有更多合格的求职者申请空缺职位一些与会者指出尽管近几个月来工资增速有所放缓但仍保持强劲尽管如此他们指出其他一些就业指标比如基于美国劳工统计局BureauofLaborStatistics的家庭调查和就业与工资季度普查指标表明2022年的就业增长可能比工薪就业指标所显示的要弱与会者普遍认为劳动力供给和需求之间仍然存在很大的不平衡职位空缺仍然很多且名义工资增速仍在上升与会者表示尽管经济增长放缓但劳动力需求迄今仍保持强劲少数人表示一些商业联系人报告称由于他们最近经历了劳动力短缺和招聘挑战即使面对产出需求放缓他们也希望留住工人由于劳动力参与率自2022年初以来变化不大一些与会者评论说劳动力供应似乎受到结构性因素的限制如提前退休儿童保育的可用性减少或成本增加交通成本增加以及移民减少在适当限制性的货币政策路径下与会者预计劳动力市场的供需将随着时间的推移达到更好的平衡从而缓解名义工资和物价的上行压力在实现委员会广泛和包容性的最大就业目标的背景下一些与会者评论说随着劳动力市场走向更好的平衡一些人口群体的失业率特别是非洲裔美国人和西班牙裔美国人的失业率可能会比全国平均水平更高WithinflationstillwellabovetheCommitteeslongerrungoalof2percentparticipantsagreedthatinflationwasunacceptablyhighParticipantsconcurredthattheinflationdatareceivedforOctoberandNovembershowedwelcomereductionsinthemonthlypaceofpriceincreasesbuttheystressedthatitwouldtakesubstantiallymoreevidenceofprogresstobeconfidentthatinflationwasonasustaineddownwardpathParticipantsnotedthatcoregoodspricesdeclinedintheOctoberandNovemberCPIdataconsistentwitheasingsupplybottlenecksSomeparticipantsalsonotedthatbysomemeasuresfirmsmarkupswerestillelevatedandthatacontinuedsubduedexpansioninaggregatedemandwouldlikelybeneededtoreduceremainingupwardpressureoninflationRegardinghousingservicesinflationmanyparticipantsobservedthatmeasuresofrentbasedonnewleaseswereindicatingadecelerationwhichwouldbereflectedinthemeasuresofshelterinflationwithsomelagParticipantsnotedthatinthelatestinflationdatathepaceofincreaseforpricesofcoreservicesexcludingshelterwhichrepresentsthelargestcomponentofcorePCEpriceinflationwashighTheyalsoremarkedthatthiscomponentofinflationhastendedtobecloselylinkedtonominalwagegrowthandthereforewouldlikelyremainpersistentlyelevatedifthelabormarketremainedverytightConsequentlywhiletherewerefewsignsofadversewage-pricedynamicsatpresenttheyassessedthatbringingdownthiscomponentofinflationtomandate-consistentlevelswouldrequiresomesofteninginthegrowthoflabordemandtobringthelabormarketbackintobetterbalance请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明16策略研究事件点评由于通货膨胀率仍远高于委员会的长期目标2与会者一致认为通货膨胀率高得不可接受10月和11月的通胀数据显示月度价格上涨速度出现了可喜的下降但他们强调要相信通胀正处于持续下降通道还需要更多的证据与会者指出10月和11月CPI数据中的核心商品价格有所下降与供应瓶颈缓解一致一些与会者还指出按照某些衡量标准企业的加成仍然较高可能需要总需求持续小幅扩张以减轻通胀上行压力关于住房服务通胀许多与会者指出基于新租约的租金指标表明通胀正在减速这将滞后表现在通胀的住房指标上与会者指出在最新的通货膨胀数据中不包括住房在内的核心服务价格增长速度很高这是核心PCE的最大组成部分他们还指出这一部分通胀往往与名义工资增长密切相关因此如果劳动力市场仍然非常紧张它可能会持续上升因此虽然目前没有什么不利的工资-价格动态迹象但他们评估说若要降低这部分通胀需要使劳动力需求增长放缓以更使劳动力市场恢复更好的平衡Participantsobservedthatmeasuresfromsurveysofhouseholdsandbusinessesaswellasfromfinancialmarketsgenerallyindicatedthatlonger-terminflationexpectationsremainedwellanchoredwhileshort-terminflationexpectationshadcomedownHoweverparticipantsstressedthattheCommitteesongoingmonetarypolicytighteningtoachieveastancethatwillbesufficientlyrestrictivetoreturninflationto2percentisessentialforensuringthatlonger-termexpectationsremainwellanchoredSeveralparticipantscommentedthatthelongerinflationremainedwellabovethe2percentgoalthegreatertheriskthatlonger-terminflationexpectationscouldbecomeunanchoredSuchadevelopmentifitmaterializedwouldmakeitmuchmorecostlytobringinflationdowntoachievetheCommitteesstatutoryobjectivesofmaximumemploymentandpricestability与会者注意到对家庭和企业以及金融市场的调查普遍表明长期通胀预期保持稳定而短期通胀预期有所下降然而与会者强调委员会持续收紧货币政策以实现一种足以将通胀率降至2的限制性立场这对于确保长期预期保持稳定至关重要几位与会者评论说通胀远高于2目标的时间越长长期通胀预期无法实现的风险就越大如果这种情况成为现实将使降低通货膨胀以实现承诺的最大就业和价格稳定的法定目标的成本更高ParticipantsnotedthatsincetheNovembermeetingfinancialconditionshadeasedwiththemarket-impliedpathforthefederalfundsratebeyond2023andlongertermyieldscomingdownnoticeablyAfewparticipantsremarkedthatthecurrentconfigurationofnominalyieldswithlonger-termyieldslowerthanshorter-termyieldshadhistoricallyprecededrecessionsandhenceborewatchingHoweveracoupleofthemalsonotedthatthecurrentinversionoftheyieldcurvecouldreflectinpartthatinvestorsexpectthenominalpolicyratetodeclinebecauseofafallininflationovertime与会者指出自11月会议以来金融状况有所缓解市场隐含的2023年以后的联邦基金利率和长期收益率明显下降一些与会者指出目前长短期收益率倒挂在历史上是衰退的先行指标因此值得关注不过其中几位委员还指出目前收益率曲线的倒挂在一定程度上可能反映出由于通胀会下降因此投资者预计名义政策利率将随着时间的推移而下降Participantsgenerallynotedthattheuncertaintyassociatedwiththeireconomicoutlookswashighandthattherisks请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明17策略研究事件点评totheinflationoutlookremainedtiltedtotheupsideParticipantscitedthepossibilitythatpricepressurescouldprovetobemorepersistentthananticipatedduetoforexamplethelabormarketstayingtightforlongerthananticipatedParticipantssawanumberofuncertaintiessurroundingtheoutlookforinflationstemmingfromfactorsabroadsuchasChinasrelaxationofitszero-COVIDpoliciesRussiascontinuingwaragainstUkraineandeffectsofsynchronouspolicyfirmingbymajorcentralbanksAnumberofparticipantsjudgedthattheriskstotheoutlookforeconomicactivitywereweightedtothedownsideTheynotedthatsourcesofsuchrisksincludedthepotentialformorepersistentinflationinducingmorerestrictivepolicyresponsestheprospectofunexpectednegativeshockstippingtheeconomyintoarecessioninanenvironmentofsubduedgrowthandthepossibilityofhouseholdsandbusinessesconcernsabouttheoutlookrestrainingtheirspendingsufficientlytoreduceaggregateoutput与会者普遍指出经济前景的不确定性很高通胀前景的风险仍倾向于上行与会者指出价格压力可能比预期的更持久由于劳动力市场延续紧张状态的时间比预期的更长与会者认为围绕通胀前景的许多不确定性都源于国外因素如中国放松政策俄罗斯对乌克兰的持续战争以及主要央行同步收紧政策的影响多位与会者认为经济活动前景的风险倾向于下行他们指出这类风险的来源包括更持久的通胀可能引发更限制性的政策反应意外的负面冲击可能引发经济陷入衰退家庭和企业对前景的担忧可能会抑制他们的支出从而减少总产出IntheirconsiderationofappropriatemonetarypolicyactionsatthismeetingparticipantsconcurredthattheCommitteehadmadesignificantprogressoverthepastyearinmovingtowardasufficientlyrestrictivestanceofmonetarypolicyEvensoparticipantsagreedthatinflationremainedwellabovetheCommitteeslonger-rungoalof2percentwhilethelabormarketremainedverytightcontributingtoupwardpressuresonwagesandpricesAgainstthisbackdropallparticipantsagreedthatitwasappropriatetoraisethetargetrangeforthefederalfundsrate50basispointsatthismeetingandtocontinuetheprocessofreducingtheFederalReservessecuritiesholdingsasdescribedinthePlansforReducingtheSizeoftheFederalReservesBalanceSheetthattheCommitteeissuedinMayParticipantsobservedthataslowinginthepaceofrateincreasesatthismeetingwouldbetterallowtheCommitteetoassesstheeconomysprogresstowardtheCommitteesgoalsofmaximumemploymentandpricestabilityasmonetarypolicyapproachedastancethatwassufficientlyrestrictivetoachievethesegoals在本次会议上审议适当的货币政策措施时与会者一致认为委员会在过去一年中在朝着充分限制货币政策的立场迈进方面取得了重大进展尽管如此与会者一致认为通胀仍然远高于委员会2的长期目标而劳动力市场仍然非常紧张这对工资和价格构成了上行压力在此背景下所有与会者一致认为在本次会议上上调联邦基金利率目标区间50个基点并继续推进美联储缩表进程是合适的这一点在5月委员会发布的缩减美联储资产负债表规模计划中有所描述与会者认为在这次会议上放缓加息步伐将更好地让委员会评估经济朝着委员会最大就业和价格稳定目标的进展因为货币政策接近一种足以实现这些目标的限制性立场IndiscussingthepolicyoutlookparticipantscontinuedtoanticipatethatongoingincreasesinthetargetrangeforthefederalfundsratewouldbeappropriatetoachievetheCommitteesobjectivesIndeterminingthepaceoffuture请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明18策略研究事件点评increasesinthetargetrangeparticipantsjudgedthatitwouldbeappropriatetotakeintoaccountthecumulativetighteningofmonetarypolicythelagswithwhichmonetarypolicyaffectseconomicactivityandinflationandeconomicandfinancialdevelopmentsWithinflationstayingpersistentlyabovetheCommittees2percentgoalandthelabormarketremainingverytightallparticipantshadraisedtheirassessmentoftheappropriatepathofthefederalfundsraterelativetotheirassessmentatthetimeoftheSeptembermeetingNoparticipantsanticipatedthatitwouldbeappropriatetobeginreducingthefederalfundsratetargetin2023Participantsgenerallyobservedthatarestrictivepolicystancewouldneedtobemaintaineduntiltheincomingdataprovidedconfidencethatinflationwasonasustaineddownwardpathto2percentwhichwaslikelytotakesometimeInviewofthepersistentandunacceptablyhighlevelofinflationseveralparticipantscommentedthathistoricalexperiencecautionedagainstprematurelylooseningmonetarypolicy在讨论政策前景时与会者预计持续上调联邦基金利率目标区间对于实现委员会的目标是合适的在确定未来的加息步伐时与会者认为应当综合考虑货币政策的累积紧缩货币政策影响经济活动和通胀存在滞后性以及经济和金融环境的变化由于通胀持续高于承诺委员会设定的2目标且劳动力市场仍然非常紧张全体与会者都提高了他们对联邦基金利率的评估没有人认为在2023年开始降低联邦基金利率目标是合适的与会者普遍认为需要维持限制性政策立场直到最新数据能够为通胀处于持续下降至2的道路上提供信心而这可能需要一段时间鉴于通货膨胀持续处于令人无法接受的高水平几位与会者指出历史经验告诫人们不要过早放松货币政策InlightoftheheighteneduncertaintyregardingtheoutlooksforbothinflationandrealeconomicactivitymostparticipantsemphasizedtheneedtoretainflexibilityandoptionalitywhenmovingpolicytoamorerestrictivestanceParticipantsgenerallynotedthattheCommitteesfuturedecisionsregardingpolicywouldcontinuetobeinformedbytheincomingdataandtheirimplicationsfortheoutlookforeconomicactivityandinflationandthattheCommitteewouldcontinuetomakedecisionsmeetingbymeeting鉴于通胀和实体经济活动的不确定性加剧大多数与会者强调在将政策转向更严格的立场时需要保持灵活性和可选性与会者普遍指出承诺委员会未来的政策决定将继续取决于即将发布的数据及其对经济活动和通胀前景的影响委员会将继续在每次会议上做出决定ParticipantsreaffirmedtheirstrongcommitmenttoreturninginflationtotheCommittees2percentobjectiveAnumberofparticipantsemphasizedthatitwouldbeimportanttoclearlycommunicatethataslowinginthepaceofrateincreaseswasnotanindicationofanyweakeningoftheCommitteesresolvetoachieveitspricestabilitygoalorajudgmentthatinflationwasalreadyonapersistentdownwardpathParticipantsnotedthatbecausemonetarypolicyworkedimportantlythroughfinancialmarketsanunwarrantedeasinginfinancialconditionsespeciallyifdrivenbyamisperceptionbythepublicoftheCommitteesreactionfunctionwouldcomplicatetheCommitteesefforttorestorepricestabilitySeveralparticipantscommentedthatthemediansofparticipantsassessmentsfortheappropriatepathofthefederalfundsrateintheSummaryofEconomicProjectionswhichtrackednotablyabovemarket-basedmeasuresofpolicyrateexpectationsunderscoredtheCommitteesstrongcommitmenttoreturning请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明19策略研究事件点评inflationtoits2percentgoal与会者重申了将通胀恢复到委员会2目标的坚定承诺部分与会者强调明确传达加息步伐放缓并不意味着委员会实现价格稳定目标的决心减弱也不意味着通胀已经处于持续下行道路上与会者指出由于货币政策通过金融市场发挥了重要作用金融状况的不必要放松特别是如果由公众对委员会的误解所驱动将使委员会恢复价格稳定的努力变得复杂复杂几位与会者评论说在经济预测摘要中与会者对联邦基金利率适当路径的评估中值明显高于市场隐含的政策利率预期指标这强调了委员会将通胀恢复到2目标的坚定承诺Participantsdiscussedanumberofrisk-managementconsiderationsrelatedtotheconductofmonetarypolicyManyparticipantshighlightedthattheCommitteeneededtocontinuetobalancetworisksOneriskwasthataninsufficientlyrestrictivemonetarypolicycouldcauseinflationtoremainabovetheCommitteestargetforlongerthananticipatedleadingtounanchoredinflationexpectationsanderodingthepurchasingpowerofhouseholdsespeciallyforthosealreadyfacingdifficultymakingendsmeetTheotherriskwasthatthelaggedcumulativeeffectofpolicytighteningcouldendupbeingmorerestrictivethanisnecessarytobringdowninflationto2percentandleadtoanunnecessaryreductionineconomicactivitypotentiallyplacingthelargestburdensonthemostvulnerablegroupsofthepopulationParticipantsgenerallyindicatedthatupsideriskstotheinflationoutlookremainedakeyfactorshapingtheoutlookforpolicyAcoupleofparticipantsnotedthatriskstotheinflationoutlookwerebecomingmorebalancedParticipantsgenerallyobservedthatmaintainingarestrictivepolicystanceforasustainedperioduntilinflationisclearlyonapathtoward2percentisappropriatefromarisk-managementperspective重点关注与会者讨论了与货币政策实施有关的若干风险管理因素许多与会者强调委员会需要继续平衡两种风险一个是限制性不够强的货币政策可能会导致通胀高于目标水平的时间超过预期最终使得通胀预期不稳定并侵蚀家庭的购买力特别是对于那些已经入不敷出的家庭另一个风险是货币紧缩的滞后累积效应最终可能会使得限制性程度超过将通胀降至2的必要水平并导致不必要的经济活动减少而这可能会让最脆弱的人口群体承受最大的压力与会者普遍表示通胀前景的上行风险仍然是决定政策预期的关键因素一些与会者指出了通胀前景面临的风险越来越均衡与会者普遍认为从风险管理的角度来看在通胀明显走向2之前在一段时间内保持限制性的政策立场是合适的6委员会政策及行动IntheirdiscussionofmonetarypolicyforthismeetingmembersagreedthatrecentindicatorspointedtomodestgrowthinspendingandproductionMembersalsoconcurredthatjobgainshadbeenrobustinrecentmonthsandtheunemploymentratehadremainedlowMembersagreedthatinflationhadremainedelevatedreflectingsupplyanddemandimbalancesrelatedtothepandemichigherfoodandenergypricesandbroaderpricepressures在本次会议的货币政策讨论中委员们一致认为最近的指标表明支出和生产增长速度缓慢近几个月来就业增长强劲失业率保持在低位通货膨胀率仍然较高反映出与大流行有关的供需失衡粮食和能源价格上涨以及更广泛的价格压力请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明20