受到政策刺激房地产行业需求逐步释放，.上游浮法玻璃行业库存压力得到緩解，头部企业信义玻璃(868.HK)在其渠道与规模优势下将首先获益。此外,2022年中国汽车销量数据表现强劲,并在新能源汽车带动的“新四化”的发展背景下，汽车玻璃附加值将提升,随着高附加汽车玻璃渗透率上升,福耀玻璃(3606. HK)将凭借其技术与渠道优势获得更多订单。光伏玻璃成本边际改善,加.上双玻组件的渗透率提升,明年需求预期释放,推荐关注光伏玻璃龙头企业信义光能(968. HIK)和福莱特玻璃(6865. HK)
　　报告摘要
　　浮法玻璃下游需求开始释放,行业未来向好。进入2022年，由于国际形势与疫情影响，上游原材料和燃料价格上升。下游房地产企业需求释放有限，今年.7月累计竣工面积仅为3.2亿平方米，同比下降23.3%，房地产对上游需求释放不足，浮法玻璃行业储存承压。随之下游房地产行业在中央推出“保交付”、“三条红线”等多条政策与指导方针之后，截止10月竣工面积为4.6亿平方米、降幅已收窄至18.7%。在11月房地产“金融16条”以及“三支箭”的接连落地，房地产企业资金问题将得以缓解，需求即将释放,将配合供需关系的改善带动_上游浮法玻璃的增长，信义玻璃(868. HK)作为行业头部企业收益明年将首先得到兑现。
　　汽车销量带动汽车玻璃，电动车引领智能化新浪潮。在2021年，中国汽车市场结束年新车增量连续三年下降的局面。根据中国汽车协会的数据，2021年，中国汽车销量为2627.5万辆，同比增加3.8%，全国汽车保有量已超过3亿辆。预计2022年的汽车销量将会达到10%的增速,汽车销量的快速增长将带动为之配套的汽车玻璃增长。同时，新能源汽车销量的增长，将进一步推动电子化与智能化的进度，提升高附加值玻璃的渗透率。在新能源车的浪潮中，福耀玻璃(3606. HK)将通过其品牌与技术优势进一步巩固行业龙头的地位。
　　光伏玻璃是未来新发力点。光伏玻璃的新增/扩产产能不受供给侧产能政策的限制，国内产量在快速增长以补充国内光伏玻璃的缺口。近年，国内装机容量稳定上升，增长率每年维持在20%，同时双玻光伏组件渗透率上升，所需光伏玻璃面积变大。2021年，全世界的累计光伏装机容量已达到约843吉瓦，同期中国的累计光伏装机容量已达到约306吉瓦，约占全球装机量的36.3%。推荐关注光伏玻璃龙头企业信义光能(968. HK)和福莱特玻璃(6865. HK)。
　　投贵建议:多项政策出台助房地产市场触底回,下游需求得到释放,在配合供需关系的配合，预计价格与盈利均有望上升，建议持续跟踪行业龙头信义玻璃(868. HK)。下游汽车销量强劲带动.上游玻璃配套向好;同时，新能源汽车所带来的高附加值玻璃渗透率提升的逻辑依然存在，故推荐长期关注福耀玻璃(3606. HK);在光伏玻璃板块，光伏装机量快速提升带动上游销售，推荐关注成本优化最好，并布局东南亚产线的龙头企业信义光能(968. HK)和福莱特玻璃(6865. HK)。
　　风险提示:下游市场需求不如预期、平板玻璃产能限制政策松动、原材料价格大幅上涨、天然气价格.上涨超预期、光伏新增装机慢于预期、光伏玻璃行业扩产超预期。
　　

研究报告全文：TableBaseInfo--0123456789DE89FGHGIJKL3ABCDE89FGHGIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ389FHHIJKLabcdefghijklm3nMopqderstuovwxtyzDEpFHGIJKLV3de89W3de894389FHGHIJKLFHHIJKLWNQOPTUZ89348t3a-12389ACDEpFHGIJKL89FHGHIJKL01234-011023043564326789V5-123a3cUQ3454V5C-123aI3VI345-156789234236789V5Mbux78uxQ3IH9929-5043564GIMuHxuxt3CW3-W123W-trs456789t3DE89FGHGIJKLABCaWXYkdefgrsde893sepwo-Ma3bcde012aoeg3aVt45ibcde67thi3a3bcdefgHI893IG3cdeg9atdefgW7t3defgtWrstde89A3opqdefgt3WB0sCwQpwtD389tMopqet-b389FHHIJKLWENFGQTUB0HIAtJ89KoyL89toMNpOPptQ3cRgMSTcR89tUVWa3cRXYZg43aM3A843-89aba3cdtXYZgeGfg3bctXYZgeHfg3ehiXYgtHI89ACDEpFHGIJKL89FHGHIJKLjklmnop0qrs3V5-123M-t3Qtuvw43kl3xyADE89FGHGIJKLV5defglmrs4589zA3opqdert89tM389HHIJKzM893XYgrs45f3Tw3n4tACDEpFHGIJKL89FHGHIJKLV50-89pQsb44oXY89N-0123456789A78-I453II3II5I89Q6II67897IIde899II8910II12I89-13II13IIde15II17Ihi19II678919IIde8921II8923IU25HIt26HIIDE89GHGIJK26HII89FHHIJKL27HIIDEpFHGIJKL28HII89FHGHIJKL29I30GI31-012345678B89A7889KYQ3KwMA3R13IL389QFEN3EQ89taNt-89tde89k89C8989K3p3t3Mktjtt3okBMt8935it-eGMcOPtV3o89ptZya3tyaABCDEFGHIJKGDLMNOPLQR-89t4589tpq3hQzpqhQ6789t3ttW7ttup3NbQehQtWbD489ttupABSTUVWU46A9B01-012345678901GHIJKXQABNOPLQR-012345678C89A78bF3B3a389QbttM4eGHM3eI389t4eHHG-k301233454HrB6t-pt783s3MM4VaG3gIHH83I39HI83IavD3bB-34317T3WV389ttW7B097YZ-01234GHIJK2aOPLQRcRb1T3-VbctqA3BcRCtg3DEFqGHoIGHJKLMNFONFPQR3SKvT3ha3bcp83Uge83pueI3-gHI83VgI83VgGI8NbcR-VbM4EWQ3-gXI8H83t-gI8B4EWQBUkcw3SKtcRp3-YcVbcZta3btt1g93043BMMabA3cdt13DE3ef389CvM454303gMhC3Qi1bcdefABCDghiHUVjkjkgFLhIHHMHIGIHGIGHMHIGHIIMIIHMIIIMIIlmIHMHIHnIHHIHMIGIDIMDIIGFMIGGHIJK2aLOXQABNOlmgODnLMNOopqNOrstuOPLQR-012345678D89A780pqC3894pqt3BtoopqQqpoBorNsct3cpq4uv3089tvDt44DbtKQowqxtF3oopqpoLy4SKDowwqxV3Czzpq3bcZtDb3t77RonUkMMQpqtV3892bt3WpqF3L89tpqti3Bt6789h3qoptvet89389tw3SKtpqQ3ACppqtRSbZbtTUtW7-bgt3B6b89703ACtMTU3kBkt0W7bh3890tVbDB08ABCDghJxHnhyz7L1IJKCDE1FG1HE15012ABC4GHIJK2aOPLQRGHIJK2aOPLQRvwxHyz765578901234901234901234GHIJK2OPLQRbcdABCDgxHUVjkgFLoIHHMIHMopIMIqpoIMGHIJK2aOXQABNOPLQR-012345678E89A781234589tb589Q8937677V7BQ33893DvTt89r3w3t8989tV5K893Nbk3de3t-89tV5Fbk89he3de89eh3Veh3Ns89eh389t-tAV5C89t-389-5it-3EtQpt893Nbw8989b8989898989efABDnGHIJKPLQR89Qt1O389tKMR3tRBGa3N38-bj3A89B33t7bgMRA3-W3W3NwS3o83BAH3a4457hQAhg3Aw0gVa3bcX898H8GI8XQefABCDydNM000M000BM000B00OB00PB00LB00B0B0BB0GB0B0FB0NB0OB0PB0LB0B0B0BGHIJ2aOQOPLQRortwa3ot3orc3acLDhz3Lk3C0883s78M345V30gV3M3eMGtDR3gH8avab3-012345678F89A78Ve3ge83VI4519308933U3WV5deCt0-A3th3ct3c13V5-9tar3c23Mt34589gv78nortp7tb3G3VbDA3t1C44534b5Bw3O3Bc23Mt367126789KB896789KWt896M43pjDvTt89rNj3pl34E89DtL0t3eh89gtG46789CM6789A333zz30Vba3Mp3cRb6789t0heG3b89t0heHNbbB0hi3TUNb3DE89heIHHefVheIHbtcCbckFb8ON89CLj3hHabVKo8VheI8VheIGheIYXQAByDDkRSTUVWQNN1XY-Z46XVWLQNO19FPQBG1NQ001VWFQO1VWabcdQLP1GQOB1GHIJ2aOPLQRAtupYRNsCNb3DE89efVKRtAMa3DEt6789XeHII3uXeIIIefVM6789tGFI3ILGFILFIGL3uQDE893XGIII3hjtbkVtb8hWatu4hi3DE89efVh3tupNs3W3Nb-012345678G89A78rABnrABnyK4kNDNDN6D6DDD5DDNDNNNEFGHIJKLMGKLEFGHIJKLMGKLGHIJKrYOPLQRGHIJKrYOPLQRVbDWB03wALptW3NpwA36789VbDWB0LMcpV36789otpWUq3oCtp7Z-3oLRAJ03nERSTUQNsC3Ath7B0abRw7DE89efV1XtA46789f0cR389-Va3bc89g85iJ2thi3a6789VhgeIH83VvIG3M3VeI3zVgeGI83VvIG3M3VeI3V89vV89v3V89893cR6789OBU3Vhgvhgtb3ab3cR67891T36789fcR03Bbc89MgMg4F8Lab31YXQABDNQ00Q00BQ000Q00PQ00NQ00Q00B00B0B0BB0GB0B0FB0NB0OB0PB0LB0B0B0Befgh24ijklefmhh24ijklGHIJK2aOPLQR-012345678H89A78aH3cM67895H3a93g5eHIG83GI3puGIcR6789atGMkMHM3VeIa4a30368789t3-FV43FuV36789tupbV5ithi36789CtgGIH83GI3hI3V5-3893Va3BQuAV0RhgwA3891gWV3-W7YAB56OPGH01234GHIJK2OPLQR8912de89K6789Fde89-wF389-5iV5tt89389typ5ithi3cR6789bde893pM3h6789peIMde89b1B03XKoee0FCDEL0FFELde89tVbDGa3cdbt0be3de89tB0BHkAt45ihi3Ig3ide89tb1XK893h0eGzJmC3h0eHzmC3h0ezKLM3h0ezDE893h0eGMbccRtde890b3NONOXHHIGGINb389ehI3DE89b3eh0tIabzP89hGIzQRJhI3hI8YAByYXQABkN1F1QRGHP1noF1EFGHBP1pqrF1RSF1sqrO1TUVtuvP1WXYZRSO1L1BN1GHIJKrstuOPLQRSGHIJKrstuOPLQRS-012345678I89A7889QDE89vcRde89AC3SSt089SCDE03DE89KFE0tA3MT4fg3DE89hide89U0teabMa3DE89XUkMde89T1HIIH3uXeHIII89tde89GIHFILIFIHLIGFIGL3ueIGIHIDE89tde89Ttu89eabDE89tVfwy3deftVbD3MV5flAWltlpMa3DE89eGGtde89Ttfwy89tVKdeC3VbD3V5tlp3DEtde89FKX893MAYZ3et89KX038343DEtde89TWtuLABABAByNNNNNNNEFGHGHQRGHGHEFGHGHabcQRGHGHabcGHIJKrYOPLQRde89Qde89t3MRSV5q89MQdewf3NF-V5t-d3tpB89tFEd13V5cdFtg1tY7a1obV5qMRNB3deuovwx-c3eC89tpde89ACEYyTU3cbgtp893Ccdetde89ACWV5tTU3Jfs1289-p4E89NGt3AygKMhV389-ilDjkltL389mnKYtoB5ict-389tpqg-I34E89tpqgBKIab89teF4E89eGGLlDrsjklkM89896789891367891tkMeht89t389KBt89-012345678J89A78B89At4Uap3NOMNOXMNbDEpehehDuNpehvwopqehHON89eh1bARSb3MbTU3Ebx9ytFz3FWbt0AttYyTUstJfs3A4YABXQyDkLLJAB8GHIJKDnOPLQR894E67893M4Gt3okwW4E8989Dg89MA3XY-t3-KX89tFgd89-od3A3Yt3B1737a3bwV5qttoz037QR3Ma31bADEpIH3uIzGFILHIHFHIHLGFHIHL3uIGHIIDEpe13MNb3uve3BtJI3byoLyNNNNNEFdeQfgEFdeabcQfgabcGHIJKrYOPLQR-01234567889A78a3bc89tg83I3bc89tghcdt89VgIGG83VgI83jgGGI834IVgbVg3cR891T3Vhg389fcR0aG3895GCM3Mp3pHIG8M4a89u3A89ppQ3Nbp30VG389cR0vI89HIM3VIH3VIzI89IHM3VG3VI89tpw45acTowpt3HacTok1t3GaDBQy1Bopn89optE3a3DBootn89pU73MbEOPptBtV389ptQ3ohgbVM7b3BRokNbpt89nB3oppEgw9gtUknB0lpt3Ra331a4tn89ppSKpMt89toptVM389tptQw45389t3nbQp3otp-Qpb7XQefABnW7YQvDpOOpODnDYQrDefAB-nY012R3S45nD67-8WY9efABD5nCDXAYLrEDpOOpBCD67FGeefABrfABnDHIYLFGABn7YIKL1DMYNFGOHOeD672JfABCDPQABhD67-RSTUdnefhABPQABVSW67pGHIJLOXNOQOPLQR-012345678B89A7812A5BCDK6789tb-3eh89KXM4YW30tF89faw7QtawB03hi43B89tQtawb00aw3oBtMaoYbeatAhi3oa43nGa3t3Ma5ic4thi3Ha3CtS3aotg3kMbgtB3bcjk3gV3fV5-3-1238913089O3V3454306789uA3DVYYZefABDNNNNNNhNhNhN5656ijklmnopqrstuvGHkwpqrstGHIJK2aOQOPLQRXQsYZYYsYZyepab7YcNN6NNNhN6hNhNhN566xymiznolmizno56xymiznolmiznoGHIJK2aOQOPLQRGHIJK2aOQOPLQR-012345678C89A78u312-rs6789Da3V5C-123VIG3IQnB3Vt3buxuxQ3IHGIM3n3CW3MknBw43ns4rs45k-436789WMV5-121g9ttV36789fgMaBDwsXQZDsYd46hhh56qrstijklmcqrstijkxymcGHIJK2aOPLQRWatFJt6789NACtN36789AhWhQ89yk31tawUB0389t0taw703nCt389tawU6789CastB89Watn3YQ6789hBtV3SD7YefABABeftGHIJK2aOPLQR-012345678D89A78895icddethi3Ma3idefgXGI89G893II3bcdefgXHGI89HI893IIGi3Betde89gveIde89MFa89de89vL3a3itde89CDE0RSeG3bc0RSe3bcde67abcdefge893na3bcdefgW893NFOIz3abcdefgWXH89GH89de89a3abcde89-gWIIIIHz0RSWXGIIGIidegBD3a3ideg7GH89G89GG89HIH89ide89RSWHHHHIHHHIH8YXQghyij65656wwGHIJK2aOPLQRYkjABlmnopy56566GHIJKPLQR-012345678E89A785iKBt3arcdegI93Ma3bcdeggvM894de89tbeMab3bcae89e-893bBtde89X893X893abcFE0RSe30RSgdehg4aoehgdegta43FEde890-04BdegM3k3a3bcdegwWI9IH9I9IH93Abcde89FE0RSWXIGIIHIXQABqnkjy5556GHIJKPLQRbcdeg4bBbctdege933yctdegvM943bctdevgQycbtyzbcBtVh3vbhg3oe0bpYXQrsyijYXQrsYtyijN6NNN56ww56GHIJKrPOPLQRGHIJKrPOPLQR-012345678F89A78opqefgopqdeAa5fI89se3GIzjf893IMopqdeeSeTtV3abcopqdet3aopqetWdeuovwxsde894MopqdetA3deuswpw5wxtyz89-uKp3pVxtyz3Kp8933J898989n898989896pt89Wde893e89W703uwWB03AWde89topqdeWsCDEde890t-4tsBYuvJgyjDDDD5D6D5D6D5DDgtGHIJKw902x0323OPLQRiQbcoXYg4a3cdtXYZgeG3bctXYZgeH3ehiXYgtHI3bcFVeG33IzVXYgeG3Iaa3bcXYZgu3aM4cGaaXYgV3WaMab3cdAW1acRoXYgMab38KB0t3S8Wtygjjkl3at37B0tcRYXYZgt48tE389t-WB0tNb7yzXQdy6656qrwqrwGHIJKQRVCJWOPLQR-012345678G89A78890yzb3g05ibc67FNFLt3a3ioXYgXH3ZIz8tWH35ihi3889-H8M388Ma389tt-g7Iz89kHIMa3i89a0RSWA3acRoXYgXza3bc89-gI30RSHIB89gI3-gyzb3uA89t-WB0Nb3Mg0tb3BACRSTU7Wt03ZTtyz7NDD5DDNND6DD6D5D5D5DNN56xdw04dc0N4GHIJKQRVCJWOPLQR7XQNDD6NDDNDDD66DNDDDNN56xdw04dc0N4GHIJKQRVCJWOPLQR-012345678H89A78EFGHIJ671277ABrnyi78ABryiyy66NNhh5656EFIJMGEFstIJstMGstEFIJMGEFstIJstMGstGHIJKNrrOPLQRGHIJKNrrOPLQR7ABryi7ABryiyy6NNhhhh5656EFIJMGEFIJMGEFstIJstMGstEFstIJstMGstGHIJKNrrOPLQRGHIJKNrrOPLQR7ABry7ABryNNNNNNNNNNNN5656EFIJMGEFIJMGGHIJKNrrOPLQRGHIJKNrrOPLQR-012345678I89A787ABrlqmy8ABrlqqyNNNNNNNNNNNNNN5656EFIJMGEFIJMGGHIJKNrrOPLQRGHIJKNrrOPLQR6789u167ABDEefLuv3tup0M4tNb3a6789o3tupt-012345678BJ89A78