周观点
　　出行:整体强度回落，部分过峰城市本地、异地出行均有回暖。本地出行:地铁客运量数据看，北京、成都、武汉、重庆表现为恢复度回落后再度回升，截至2022/12/24，分别恢复至2019年同期的23%、76%、38%、44%，上海、深圳、南京、苏州等多数城市地铁客流恢复度处于下降阶段。异地出行:航空数据看，截至2022/12/22，全国整体客运航班量为2019年同期37%、较12/16高点(61%）回落24pct;一线城市看，截至2022/12/24北京客运航班执飞量为2019年同期的32%、随着感染峰值过去已较12/20低点回升3pct，上海、深圳等仍在回落阶段。
　　餐饮:北京澳凑、怂火锅等位数恢复显著，全国范围餐饮流水仍在震荡回落。北京为代表的“过峰”城市目前餐饮数据恢复势头向好，12/24(周六)北京晚市高峰期等位数回升明显，其中怂火锅晚市19点左右等位数达到180+桌、为该店开业以来高点，凑凑火锅多店等位数也超过10月水平。截至12.18代表餐饮连锁品牌全国歇业率为12%(环比上周末+9pct)，全国营业额较去年同期恢复度约31%、环比上周末(12.11）的53%回落22pct。
　　酒旅:OTA周均日活增速回落，三亚为代羟旅游目的地或恢复更快。11月中国内地/经济型/中高端RevPar同比+6.2%/4.5%/10.1%，分别恢复至19年同期62%/74%/71%(前值57%/63%/64%)，华住LH预计领先行业25pct，体现头部连锁综合竞争实力。政策放开后一周（2022/12/6~12/12）携程周均日活同比-4.9%，降幅较前一周(2022/11/29~12/05）的-33.9%明显收窄，但此后又出现降幅扩大，最新周(2022/12/20~12/23)周均日活同比-17.9%。代表异地旅游目的地的客运航班执飞量数据看，三亚凤凰机场在政策放开后客运航班执飞量恢复迅速，截至2022/12/24为2019年同期的82%、较12/21回落后的低点回升9pct;云南机场（昆明+丽江+西双版纳）在12/16后有所回落，截至2022/12/24为2019年同期的43%。我们认为可积极关注过峰城市周边游，及以一线城市为主要客源地、春节为旺季、消费层次相对偏高的旅游目的地，如三亚。
　　数据及公告跟踪
　　上周(2022/12/19~2022/12/23)沪深300、恒生指数分别-3.2%、-0.7%、社会服务（申万)-0.8%，细分来看，餐饮A股、港股指数分别+3.1%、+3.6%，酒店A股、港股指数分别-1.4、+0.7%，景区指数-3.2%，人力服务指数-0.03%。板块对比来看，社会服务板块上周涨幅在30个申万一级行业板块中位列第3。
　　投资建议
　　我们认为在防疫政策确定放松情况下线下出行消费将迎来确定性的基本面反转，预计板块恢复次序与海外经验较为一致，本地消费先于异地消费，即餐饮>酒店>旅游，出境游更多受政策催化。短期恢复的结构分化、终端数据未有验证明显改善等情况交织下将预计市场预期、清晰仍可能出现较大波动，仍有预期博弈机会;中长期仍应重点把握业绩兑现确定性更强、有成长逻辑的优质标的。建议综合考虑修复次序、业绩弹性、增量看点及估值性价比进行阶段式布局，其中更早修复板块优先考虑业绩确定性和α层面逻辑。
　　本周投资组合:呷哺呷哺、百胜中国、复星旅文、中青旅、同庆楼。
　　风险提示
　　疫情反复，原材料价格上涨，劳动力短缺风险，海外宏观经济衰退风险等。
　　

研究报告全文：2022年12月25日买入维持评级社会服务业行业研究行业周报证券研究报告国金证券研究所分析师苏晨执业S1130522010001联系人叶思嘉suchengjzqcomcnyesijiagjzqcomcn过峰城市回暖整体出行消费仍偏淡-01234564789344ABC5DE5FG5HIJKLMNOPQRSTUTTVTVTWXMNSTUYZT5a5b5WWcd5ef5gC5hijk124lMNmnopqr64stARSTUTTVTVTTuvswLTUYZ5xTVayzaTW12ARSTUTTVTVTWBCswLTUYZT50xTVTUzQcd5efjqrBC5jMNuvlBCLJ012MNTVTWBC2y0jQ2YzjbU5LyzkjURSTbJuvLTcYuvxZMN5cTTT7LJ4MNv4VVyaTVWVUXMNSYZaTVWVVaVaWTK-OTUTTVTVaTVT7WYpxTUTTVVTYTVUYOKpTUTTVTVTUTVT7YJ644swAOswMNRSTUTTVTVTWLTUYZbT5xTVTOzQYg-012TVaO83RSTUTTVTVTWLTUYZW456L78901212L45ABLCD5EFGHIJKy4LcTUTTVTVYTUTTVTVTMeUU5NOPXT5U5QRSTUVUbWAX5YXPX5aX5YXPXW5UZPTSTPUUJAQRSTcUUVabc456LdefghijooEFklfgmn3opqMNHrsdtuxLv34EFn64EFwxxykzMN58ujijok257Kx8RHzKfgm58DNHr5m5AzmqrNfgmGo35v5N55IeipNcdtjTJT50129KW5zNhBsWT5-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-B12P0RSTVTWkA34578xpQmxL5jj78xJK5EFx5ZmTZKm8MN64EFL7pmn3ocQRSTUTTVTVTWLTUYZbT5xTVTOzQY5AB-012y8NmR35v5N55IT5-01234564789344ABC5DE5FG5HIJKLMNOPQRSTUTTVTVTWXMNSTUYZT5a5b5WWcd5ef5gC5hijk124lMNmnopqrRSTUTTVTVTWXLTUYZTY5Wa5T5WJ124MNTUY上海北京广州深圳成都南京武汉西安苏州郑州重庆长沙合肥石家庄昆明厦门南宁东莞2022-12-242923294676233828412144NANANANANANANA2022-12-233122285072253627451941NANANANANANANA2022-12-223719275867303228531837NANANANANANANA2022-12-2143182868633629326118358170304027155402022-12-2049163075634226386719338881273929863432022-12-1956153382654925457521329893254032772462022-12-186314368770552553822332108106234233878482022-12-176614389274592658872533116114224634684522022-12-166915419779622864902834125122225035690552022-12-1574174510090653271933136133131225536392572022-12-1476194810298663775943438136135236036490582022-12-13782149104105654178953639136133246435986582022-12-12792250104110644579943739133129256834484572022-12-11792350105113634780933737130125266934783562022-12-10782350104113604680903935122118256834481542022-12-09772349102113584380873732114114246534178542022-12-08772248101112573979873525110110216333876522022-12-0777214698109573477873319109109185933474502022-12-0677194196106582975893113110112135533173482022-12-05761836941025622738727811111395132871462022-12-047616319298NA156887NA311211554932469452022-12-0378152891945514619113111511934732969442022-12-02801524908954125396NA012112024733169NA2022-12-01811421918452104398NA012612214733271442022-11-30811319928251104098NA012812314732972452022-11-29821420938049123998NA012912214832573452022-11-288315219481501538100NA013212514932476462022-11-278418239584532037102NA013712825132778462022-11-268420259888562640103NA114613245333083482022-11-2584222810094613244104NA115313585633690492022-11-24843030101100644154106NA115713814603419250-0123456789ABCDEF4GHIJKLMNO64stARSTUTTVTVTTuvswLTUYZ5xTVayzaTW12ARSTUTTVTVTWBCswLTUYZT50xTVTUzQcd5efqrXLTUYZW5WWJTuvswMNTUYSJBCswMNTUYSTUTTVTVTTTUTTVTVTW-56CPQ-RST456789OO-56CPQ-RST456789IJKLMUVOJWcdswMNTUYSJefswMNTUYSTUTTVTVTWTUTTVTVTW-56CPQ-RST456789OO-56CPQ-RST456789IJKLMUVO5BC5jMNuvluveidhuvyOKQlMNoMN0sk412ijol3IRSTbJuvLTcYuvxZMN5cTTTJahOJoJJlnQTUTpOSTUTTVTVbSTUTTVTVb-56CPQ-RST456789OO-56CPQ-RST456789IJKLMUVOP0opJ12A5g4P0Ol5N678xRSTVblMNXLTUTZWa5TaTV4P05HlMNK5c9gTV4PX0TValMNc5BCoOEFgMNAOBfC12PHRSTVbJlMNSZY5jMNTVTWBC2y0jQ2YzjbU5LyzkjUJbBC2y0jMNSTUTTVTVTW-56CPQ-RST456789OJYBC2y0jMNSTUTTVTVTW-56CPQ-RST456789OaJU2lMNSJg2lMNSTUTTVTVbTUTTVTVb-56CPQ-RST456789OO-56CPQ-RST456789OJTBC2lMNSJ2lMNSTUTTVTVbTUTTVTVb-56CPQ-RST456789OO-56CPQ-RST456789OW57j4MNv4VVyLYVbYVa5aTVWVUXMNSYZaTVWVVaVaWDDXMNSYZVbVbUVVXMNSYZbVYWVbbVbYVbWv4VVyxYZMNXVUVacBEFGjHbh4MNyyIDDMNy0syImI-JKL8MN55jJKnLLYZbTJWv4STUTT有新增确诊病例省份数RevPAR19120351003025802060154010205002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-11-WXY4Z456789OJSTUTTJaSTUTTOCC19ADR19RevPAR19RevPAR19OCC19ADR191201201001008080606040402020002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-11-WXY456789OO-WXY456789OOijAOTUTTVTVaTVT7WYpxTUTTVVTYTVUYOKpTUTTVTVTUTVT7YJ7周均日活万YOY8000-5750-10700-15-20650-25-30600-35550-4020221172022125202211142022112120221128202212122022121920221223-56CPQ-RST456789OJ644swAOswMNRSTUTTVTVTWLTUYZbT5xTVTOzQYg-012TVaO83RSTUTTVTVTWLTUYZW456LMN789IRL12L5ABLCD5EFGHIJKy4LJbswMNTUYSJYgswMNTUYSTUTTVTVTWTUTTVTVTWb-56CPQ-RST456789OO-56CPQ-RST456789abcdefghijCDNO1LTUTTVTVYRSTVTWPQZ7MNJTU1HSTUTTVTVTW-56CPQ-RST456789O2cTUTTVTVYTUTTVTVTMeUU5NOPXT5U5QRSTUVUbWAX5YXPX5aX5YXPXW5UZPTSTPUUJAQRSTcUUVab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