研究报告全文：MN13Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateSunnyOptical2382HKPositiveonshipmentrecoveryandupgradetrendMaintainHoldonfairvaluationTargetPriceHK6408Wearepositiveonpost-destockingshipmentrecoveryandindustry-wisespecPreviousTPHK7103upgradetrenddrivenbyrecentHuaweiAppleflagshipmodelsMatePro60UpDownside59iPhone15ProMaxForSunnywealsoexpectblendedASPrecoveryAppleHuaweiorderwinsandeasingcompetitiontodriveearningsin2H232024CurrentPriceHK6100HoweverintheneartermwebelieverecentstockrallieshavefactoredintheseChinaTechnologypositivesandSunnysSepHLSHCMshipmentgrowthof1741YoYwaslargelyin-linemainlyonAppleHuaweirestockingandlowbasevs2022TradingAlexNGat419x238xFY2324EPEwethinkthestockisfairlyvaluedandthemarket85239000881alexngcmbicomhkiswaitingformorepositivecatalystssuchas2024guidanceinvestmentplanoverseasexpansionandhandsetautoclientwinsMaintainHOLDwithnewHanqingLISOTP-basedTPofHK6408toreflectRMBdepreciationlihanqingcmbicomhkSeptembershipmentin-lineMoMgrowthbackontrackGivenStockDataMktCapHKmn669170AppleHuaweisrestockingforflagshipmodelsinSeptemberSunnysHLSAvg3mthstoHKmn4176HCMshipmentgrowthof1741YoYonlowbasewaslargelyin-linewith52wHighLowHK116305105expectationHLSHCMsflattishMoMgrowth3-1MoMimpliedsteadyTotalIssuedSharesmn10970shipmentrecoveryVLSOtheroptoelectronicproducts3DVRclimbedSourceFactSet818YoYdrivenbyQuest3newproductlaunchInadditionQ-techsShareholdingStructureSepshipmentdeclineof-3-12MoMYoYwasduetomixshifttomid-to-SunXuLtd355high-endCCMproductsin-linewithspecupgraderecoveryJPMorganChaseCo49SourceHKExOutlookAppleHuaweiordershigh-endspecupgradeandeasingSharePerformancecompetitionLookinginto4Q23EdespiteflattishsmartphonesalesLarganAbsoluteRelativeispositiveonbothmid-to-lowhigh-enddemandForSunnygivenAndroid1-mth1705restockingandstrongAppleHuaweimomentumweexpectMoMshipment3-mth-211-184growthinto4Q23Inadditionspecupgradesharegainandeasingmarket6-mth-363-291competitionwilldrivehandset-relatedbusinessrecoveryin2024InthelongSourceFactSettermweremainbullishonautoLiDARHUDARVRasseculargrowth12-mthPricePerformancedriversValuationKeyrisksDespiteflattishoutlookinto4Q23EweexpectSunnytooutperformpeersgivenAppleHuaweiexposuretechnologyleadershipandsolidproductroadmapThatsaidwethinkrecentrallyhasreflectedinshipmentrecoveryandASPreboundinto2H232024Tradingat419x238xFY2324EPEwethinkthestockisfairlyvaluedMaintainHOLDwithnewSOTP-basedTPofHK6408basedonsame247xFY24EPESourceFactSetRelatedReports1ExpectshipmentrecoveryontrackEarningsSummaryin2H23EMaintainHoldonmarginYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EoverhanglinkRevenueRMBmn374973319732033360823978011H23firsttakein-linewithprofitYoYgrowth1311535126102warningMarginpressureremainsNetprofitRMBmn4993224078148392608731495anoverhanglinkYoYgrowth23518384758207EPSReportedRMB45722013623928821H23profitwarningworsethanConsensusEPSRMB458248134241316fearedMaintainHoldlinkPEx383468419238198PBx9251272523Yield0509101822ROE26511266109123Netgearing1612260519687SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANT1DISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEMOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk13Oct2023FocusChartsFigure1SunnyOpticalrevenuetrendFigure2SunnyOpticalGPMtrendRMBmn254500013151040000102035000300005Thousands01525000-1-40200001015000-510000-11-10550000-152020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E0OthersAutoLens2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E2025EHandsetLens3DsensingGrossMarginOperatingMarginNetMarginCameraModulesYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3SunnyHCMshipmenttrendFigure4SunnyHLSshipmenttrendSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5SunnysroadmapinautomotiveproductsFigure6Upgradetrendfornext-gencamerasSourceCompanyCMBIGMSourceCompanyCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE213Oct2023Figure7Q-TechCCMshipmenttrendFigure8Q-TechFPMshipmenttrendSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure9LarganmonthlysalestrendFigure10MediatekmonthlysalestrendSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE313Oct2023ValuationMaintainHOLDwithTPofHK6408WemaintainHOLDwithnewTPofHK6408toreflectrecentRMBdepreciationWederivedour12-monthTPfromSOTPmethodologyandweighted-averagetargetPEmultipleof247xFY24EEPStoreflectSunnysdiversificationinmultiplebusinesseswithdifferentgrowthprofilesandvisibilityofproductupcyclesacrossdifferentsegmentsWeassign18xPEtoitsCCMbusinesstoreflectitsChinasNo1positionproductupcycleandadvancedtechnologycapacityWeassign35xPEforitsvehiclelensbusinesstoreflectthehigh-marginandhigh-growthindustrynatureofvehiclelens25CAGRFY20-23EandSunnysNo1globalmarketshareWeapplya25xPEtoitshandsetlenssegmentgivensecularupgradetrendandcontinuedsharegainsfrompeersFigure11SunnyOpticalSOTPvaluationBusinesssegmentofFY24EProfitFY24EEPSRMBTargetPECameramodules38909318xHandsetlenses33808125xVehiclelenses24305835xOthers3100725xTotalRMBImpliedPE239247xTPHK6408SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure12PeersvaluationMarketUpCapPriceTPDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24ESunnyOptical2382HKHOLD856761164159419238262466109Qtech1478HKBUY5503636-113068080759103Cowell1415HKNR18981748NANA2831664435152229Truly732HKNR303075NANA------Catcher2474TTNR390818500NANA12716408086043Largan3008TTNR9014217500NANA1601531817114114Lite-on2301TTNR864111750NANA1781473232185216Primax4915TTNR10417240NANA1211101917155160O-film002456CHNR44651000NANA--122127369240Average19014635335492SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure1312MforwardPEbandFigure1412MforwardPBbandSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE413Oct2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue380023749733197320333608239780Costofgoodssold293042876126592269232924431875Grossprofit869887366605511068387904Sellingexpense313274353418397418Adminexpense719758929902938955RDexpense249926422803259028503182Others6987895041015877887Operatingprofit587758513014221635294237ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV0196222222NetInterestincomeexpense224230293427469516Pre-taxprofit565356402715181230823742Incometax703579241260354449Minorityinterest68686668119144Netprofit488249932408148426093149Netdividends799974104864611351370BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets256302798930646265203316331372Cashequivalents284256057033214768594342Accountreceivables821274487205693589928567Inventories578354824721575356246777STbankdeposits2381112485485485485FinancialassetsatFVTPL8480831410086100861008610086Othercurrentassets74281115111511151115Non-currentassets98091078512356136801424514508PPE7513830310120114531198712221Othernon-currentassets229524812236222722582287Totalassets354383877443001402014740845880Currentliabilities134111187319337156312124417794Short-termborrowings207115391990199019901990Accountpayables1073398691291792111482411375Othercurrentliabilities922315493875713370934814722Non-currentliabilities520160051482148214821482Long-termborrowings070030303030Othernon-currentliabilities520153051452145214521452Totalliabilities186121787920819171132272619276Sharecapital105105105105105105Otherreserves164922048321733225712404525824Totalshareholdersequity168262089522182230882468126604Minorityinterest229307344412531675Totalequityandliabilities354383877443001402014740745880CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation564356402715181230823742Depreciationamortization157016381816216624662766Changeinworkingcapital1152004053446836854178Others16849912071768439Netcashfromoperations71606979737731493172369InvestingCapitalexpenditure227124983633350030003000Others3705403201000Netcashfrominvesting597629023834350030003000FinancingDividendpaid796974104864611351370Netborrowings101700000Sharerepurchases15100000Others2912671111427469516Netcashfromfinancing22212412159107316051887PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE513Oct2023NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear191728425605703321476859Exchangedifference377344000Cashattheendoftheyear284256057033214768594342GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue041311535126102Grossprofit12204244226338156Operatingprofit22304485265593200Netprofit22323518384758207PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin229233199160190199Operatingmargin155156916998107ReturnonequityROE33026511266109123GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx000202000201Currentratiox192416171618Receivableturnoverdays857762806806806806Inventoryturnoverdays681715700710710710Payableturnoverdays137413071564150015001500VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE255383468419238198PB749251272523Divyield060509101822EV168261208953221824230883246809266037EVSales040607070707NoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE613Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE713Oct2023PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE8