研究报告全文：MN11Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateAlibabaBABAUSDrivingforgroupimprovementTargetPriceUS15500AlibabascustomermanagementrevenueCMRgrowthandcloudrevenuePreviousTPUS15610growthwilltaketimetorecoverundercurrentmacrobackdropwhilethegroupUpDownside827istryingtorevitalizegrowthviaempoweringeachofthesixmainunitsTaobaoCurrentPriceUS8485andTmallsuserfirststrategyisdeliveringresultsincreasingmerchantswillingnesstoinvestinadvertisingAlthoughAlibabasnear-termdomesticChinaInternetbusinessdevelopmentfaceshindranceduetomacrouncertaintiesoperatingSaiyiHECFAefficiencyimprovementacrossbusinesslinesaswellasinternationalbusiness85239161739revenuegrowthlikelyremainasbrightspotsWithamoreefficientandmorehesaiyicmbicomhkagileorganizationstructureAlibabaisbetter-positionedtoenhancecompetitivenessofindividualbusinessunitinthelongtermInviewofsoftenedYeTAOfranktaocmbicomhkoutlookonrelatedconsumptiondemandwelowerSOTP-basedTPtoUS1550fromUS1561MaintainBUYWentaoLUCFA2QFY24previewWeforecastAlibabahasachieved2QFY24Marchyear-luwentaocmbicomhkendrevenueofRMB2269bnup95YoYinlinewithBloombergStockDataconsensusDrivenbyoperatingefficiencyimprovementacrossbusinessMktCapUSmn2176700linesweforecastAlibabahasrecordedadjustedEBITAofRMB424bnupAvg3mthstoUSmn7240173YoYand07higherthanBloombergconsensusestimateThis52wHighLowUS120576315translatesinto187adjustedEBITAmargin2QFY23175TotalIssuedSharesmn25654SourceFactSetMacroheadwindsweighondomesticrevenuegrowthrecoverywhileCMRislikelytocontinuetooutgrowGMVAlibabasTaobaoandTmallShareholdingStructureGMVgrowthislikelytoseesomenear-termfluctuationsasmacroSoftBank139uncertaintiespersistandrecoverystilltakestimeHowevertheuserfirstSourceHKExstrategyisdrivinguserengagementimprovementwhichinturnimprovesSharePerformancemerchantswillingnesstoinvestinadvertisingWeforecastAlibabahasAbsoluteRelativerecordedCMRgrowthof4YoYin2QFY24onthebackof1YoYgrowth1-mth-58-35fromTaobaoandTmallGMVThepotentiallarge-scalelaunchofthenew3-mth-63-45advertisingproductsinNovemberlikelydrivesfurthermonetization6-mth-164-248improvementSourceFactSetCloudbusinessrevenuegrowthtakestimetorecoverOverallcloud12-mthPricePerformancebusinessrevenuegrowthlikelytakestimetorecovergivenaslowrecoveryinenterprisesdigitalizationdemandPubliccloudbusinesscouldsustainhealthygrowthtrajectorywhiletheadjustmentonprivateandhybridcloudbusinessremainsadragonrevenuegrowthWeforecastcloudbusinessrevenuegrowthof4in2QFY24flatQoQOperatingefficiencyimprovementacrossbusinesslinesremainsontrackOnacombinedbasisweforecastAlibabaInternationalDigitalSourceFactSetCommerceGroupAIDCLocalServicesGroupCainiaoCloudIntelligenceGroupandDigitalMediaandEntertainmentGrouphaveseenrevenuegrowthof19YoYin2QFY24whiletheircombinedadjustedEBITAlosstohavenarrowedtoRMB20bn2QFY23RMB39bndrivenbyoperatingefficiencyimprovementandeffectivecostcontrolAIDClikelyremainsabrightspotamongbusinesslinesin2QFY24thankstorobustrevenuegrowthinbothLazadaandAlibabaExpressWeestimateAIDCrevenuetogrow40YoYin2QFY24EarningsSummaryYE31MarFY22AFY23AFY24EFY25EFY26ERevenueRMBmn85306286868796561510787141175846YoYgrowth1891811211790NetprofitRMBmn619590725090135015715484611705447AdjustednetprofitRMBmn14351501439910175056218720752058200EPSAdjustedRMB53265491686773378058ConsensusEPSRMB53265456665473328252PEAdjustedx106108868173SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk11Oct2023RevisionofforecastandvaluationFigure1AlibabaforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeRMBbnFY24EFY25EFY26EFY24EFY25EFY26EFY24EFY25EFY26ERevenue9656107871175898521108712155-20-27-33GrossProfit365040344398371441474546-17-27-33Non-GAAPnetprofit175118722058176819422205-10-36-67GrossMargin37837437437737437401ppt00ppt00pptNon-GAAPnetmargin18117417517917518102ppt-02ppt-06pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCurrentConsensusDiffRMBbnFY24EFY25EFY26EFY24EFY25EFY26EFY24EFY25EFY26ERevenue9656107871175896461059611645011810GrossProfit365040344398365040084389000702Non-GAAPnetprofit175118722058171718382054191902GrossMargin37837437437837837700ppt-04ppt-03pptNon-GAAPnetmargin18117417517817317603ppt00ppt-01pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesValuationtargetpriceofUS1550perADSOurSOTP-basedtargetpriceisUS1550perADSandtranslatesinto157xFY24EPE1US722perADSwasUS733forTaobaoandTmallGroupbasedon80xFY24EEVadjustedEBITA2US166perADSforAIDCunchangedbasedon30xFY24EEVrevenuecurrentlyweareassuming20netprofitmarginand15xPEforthebusinessatsteadystate3US60perADSforlocalconsumerserviceswasUS61basedon17xEVrevenueonFY24Erevenue4US76perADSforCainiaobasedonthetransactioninthemostrecentroundoffinancingandAlibabas6954shareholding5US258perADSfortheCloudIntelligenceGroupunchangedbasedona42xPSmultipleonFY24Erevenuebeforeintersegmentelimination6US21perADSforDigitalMediaandEntertainmentGroupunchangedbasedon17xFY24EVS7US109perADSforAllOtherswasUS112basedon10xFY24EEVSales8US138perADSforstrategicinvestmentwith30holdingdiscountwasUS141PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE211Oct2023Figure3AlibabaSOTPvaluationAdjFY24ESegmentEBITAPEEVSValRMBValValueValuationmethodRevshareUSmnpostxxmnUSmsplitUSmntaxTaobaoandTmall80xFY24EPE20tax1GrouprateonadjustedEBITA650972315780128291318525872247InternationalDigitalCommerce2Group30xFY24EEVS14224302955134267316611LocalServices3Group17xFY24EVS90361710637915362604CainiaoSmartLogisticsNetworkLastroundtransactionvalue4Limited63shareholding140741350241949876542xFY24EVSonrevenueCloudIntelligencebeforeintersegment5Groupelimination15625424577066609525817DigitalMediaandEntertainment17xFY24EVSinlinewith6GroupiQIYItargetEVS3137173693353332117Allothers10xFY24EVPS2797710193743279771097TotalAlibababusiness25082103621961412INVESTMENTSLastroundsharebuyback1AntGroupvaluation33shareholding187143270241052OthersMarketvaluation1629872353692Totalinvestmentwith30holdingdiscount138TotalUSmn1550sofdilutedADSmn2565SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE311Oct2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2021A2022A2023A2024E2025E2026EYE31MarRMBmnRevenue71728985306286868796561510787141175846Costofgoodssold421205539450549695600613675275736079Grossprofit296084313612318992365003403439439766Operatingexpenses206406243974218641215352234081251631SGAexpense136743151721145679152567167201179904RDexpense572365546556744511785609359968Others124273678816218116071078711758Operatingprofit8967869638100351149651169358188135Interestincome727941570211071560121572117Interestexpense447649095918675962577055Otherincomeexpense7582105235823579459336467Pre-taxprofit1655785955089185143085171192189664Incometax292782681515549236093252637933Others698414344806310622970810583Aftertaxprofit1432844707965573130098148374162314Minorityinterest7294151707210482864728231Others2702902749000Netprofit1503086195972509135016154846170545Adjustednetprofit178954143515143991175056187208205820BALANCESHEET2021A2022A2023A2024E2025E2026EYE31MarRMBmnCurrentassets64336063853569796689365610088481169503Cashequivalents321262189898193086379075478154625318Restrictedcash352073745536424364243642436424Prepayment124708145995137072146774162886176377FinancialassetsatFVTPL162183265187331384331384331384331384Non-currentassets104685810570181055078116538712376761310606PPE147412171806176031267069316690368427InvestmentinJVsassos200189219642207380205740203186201507Intangibles708335923146913118882139249158645Goodwill292771269581268091268091268091268091FinancialassetsatFVTPL237221223611245737245737245737245737Othernon-currentassets98432113147110926598686472368199Totalassets169021816955531753044205904322465242480109Currentliabilities377358383784385351428102437383477734Short-termborrowings360688417466815891729997Taxpayable252752175312543207762764731105Othercurrentliabilities87337817308939292428103917113275Accruedexpenses261140271460275950306741296646323358Non-currentliabilities229226229576244772222208230459237862Long-termborrowings383353824452023520235118651186Deferredincome315834903560389043734767Othernon-currentliabilities187733187842189189166295174901181909Totalliabilities606584613360630123650309667842715596Sharecapital111111Capitalsurplus394308410506416880553690575264598781Retainedearnings5549245635575990287339548888001059345Otherreserves30901593016394251125112511Totalshareholdersequity946143958134999515129015614665761660638Minorityinterest137491124059123406118578112106103875Totalequityandliabilities169021816955531753044205904322465242480109PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE411Oct2023CASHFLOW2021A2022A2023A2024E2025E2026EYE31MarRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation1655785955089185143085171192189664Depreciationamortization47909480654693896561078711758Taxpaid292782681515549236093252637933Changeinworkingcapital50297181501348262837773726601Others27208010965696240772570026877Netcashfromoperations231786142759199752216046167416216967InvestingCapitalexpenditure414505330934330482814962151737Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments17351522311543115431154Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term11482610698461086000investmentsOthers861833828440068122621226212262Netcashfrominvesting244194198592135506671736851370629FinancingNetborrowings3200800000Proceedsfromshareissues17510911000Sharerepurchases7736122574746000Others132833339116692177826Netcashfromfinancing300826444965619692177826NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear345982356469227353229510379075478154Exchangedifference718788343530000Cashattheendoftheyear356469227353229510379075478154625318GROWTH2021A2022A2023A2024E2025E2026EYE31MarRevenuena1891811211790Grossprofitna591714410590Operatingprofitna223441491132111Netprofitna588170862147101Adjnetprofitna198032166999PROFITABILITY2021A2022A2023A2024E2025E2026EYE31MarGrossprofitmargin413368367378374374Operatingmargin12582116155157160Adjnetprofitmargin249168166181174175ReturnonequityROEna6574118112109GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2021A2022A2023A2024E2025E2026EYE31MarNetdebttoequityx040404050505Currentratiox171718212324VALUATION2021A2022A2023A2024E2025E2026EYE31MarPE30246523011710293PEdiluted30747023211810393PB493017121110PCFPS2423261019513596SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE511Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6