研究报告全文：9Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateOUTPERFORMChinaInternetMaintainTrendsobservedfromNationalDayHolidayOveralltravelindustrydemonstratedmildgrowthinthisyearsNationalDayChinaInternetSectorholidayMid-AutumnFestivalperiodversusthatinpandemicperiodin2019ConsumptionsegmentationtrendsustainedduringholidayperiodasanSaiyiHECFAincreasingnumberofconsumersarewillingtospendmoreforqualityservices85239161739andbetterexperienceRobustGMVgrowthforlocalconsumerserviceshesaiyicmbicomhksustainedduringholidayperioddrivenbystrongofflinetrafficandbyincreasingeffortmadebybothMeituananditscompetitortodriveforfurtherYeTAOincreaseinonlinepenetrationOnthebackofontrackfundamentalrecoveryfranktaocmbicomhkandundemandingvaluationwereiterateBUYonTCOMandMeituanwhilelong-termstructuralvaluationreratingstilldependson1theevolvementofWentaoLUCFAcompetitivelandscape2themagnitudeofrecoveryinmacroandluwentaocmbicomhkconsumptionand3theimprovementofliquidityenvironmentTravelindustrysawmildgrowthvsthatinpre-pandemicperiodPerRelatedReportsdatapublished6OctoberbytheMinistryofCultureandTourismofChina1TripcomTCOMUS-Releaseofpent-updemandremainedstrongMCTthetotalnumberoftouristsovertheNationalDayholidayMid-6SepAutumnFestival29Sep6Oct2023reached826mnup713YoYandwas1041ofthatinthecomparableperiodin20192023LaborDay2Meituan3690HK-Stayvigilantholiday1191TourismincomereachedRMB7534bnup1295YoYinlong-lastingcompetition25Augandwas1015ofthatin20192023LaborDayholiday1007TCOMordercontributionfromlong-haultravelonrobustrecovery3InternetTrendsobservedfromtrackPerTripcomGroupTCOMduringthisyearsNationalDayholidaythisyears618shoppingfestivalMid-AutumnFestivallocalandshort-haultravelbookingorders20Juneaccountedfor49oftotalbookingwhilethatoflong-haultravelincreased4TripcomGroupTCOMUS-to512022NationalDayholiday352021NationalDayholidayStrongrecoverytosustaininc50Thehealthyrecoveryofrelativelyhigh-marginlong-haultravel2Q239JunelikelyheraldsaontrackmarginexpansionforTCOMin3Q23inourviewConsumptionsegmentationtrendsustainedduringthisyears5Meituan3690HK-DeterminedtomaintainlocalconsumerholidayperiodPerQunarbookingvolumeforhigh-endhotelsonitsservicesindustryconsumermindplatformduringNationalDayholidayMid-AutumnFestivalhasreachedshare29Mayhistoricalhighandthe470growthofbookingvolumeforhigh-endhotelsduringthisyearsholidayperiodascomparedtothatofpre-pandemicperiodin2019weremuchfasterthanthatofmid-to-lowendhotelsPerTCOMpercapitaspendingforitspackagedtourbusinesswasupc80YoYduringholidayperiodinourviewthanksto1recoveryinoutboundtravelbusinessand2increasingwillingnesstospendmoreonqualitytravelproductsandservicesMeituanlocalconsumerservicessawrobustgrowthPerMeituanduringthisyearsholidayperiodasof5Oct2023comparedtothatofcomparableperiodin2019dailyaveragegrosstransactionvolumeGTVforservicesretailbusinessonitsplatformgrew1532019-2023CAGRof26andtheGTVofin-storediningbusinessgrew2542019-2023CAGRof37TheearlystageGTVgrowthdataforservicesretailbusinessofMeituanwaslargelyinlinewithourexpectationfor4Q23EandindicatedanongoingincreaseinonlinepenetrationLeadinggamescompaniesmaintainsolidperformanceduringtheHolidayTencentNetEaseeachhad33gamesrankingamongtheiOStop10mobilegamesgrossingchartduringtheHolidaybasedonavgrankingduringtheholidayseeFig3PerCNGslatestreporton8OctChinasonlinegamemarketrevenuegrewby461YoYtoRMB292bninAug2023mainlydrivenbystronggrowthofmobilegamerevenue637YoYduringthesummervacationSeveralnewgamesdeliveredsolidgrossingperformanceinAugustCNGestimatesthefirst-monthrevenueofTencentsMapleStoryMobileandNetEasesDunkCityDynastysurpassedRMB900mnandRMB400mninAugustOverseasrevenuefromChinasself-developedgameswasup55YoYtoUS15bninAugustPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk9Oct2023Overalltravelindustrysawmildgrowthversuspre-pandemicperiodwithconsumptionsegmentationtrendsustainedPerdatapublished6OctoberbytheMCTthetotalnumberoftouristsovertheNationalDayholidayMid-AutumnFestival29Sep6Oct2023reached826mnup713YoYandwas1041ofthatinthecomparableperiodin20192023LaborDayholiday1191TourismincomereachedRMB7534bnup1295YoYandwas1015ofthatin20192023LaborDayholiday1007ThesetsofdataimplytouristspendingpercapitaARPUofRMB912duringtheholidayBoththenumberoftouristsandthetourismincomewereshortoftheforecastsgivenbyMCTon30Sep2023accordingtowhichthenumberoftouristswasexpectedtoreach896mnandtotaltourismincomewasexpectedtoreachRMB7825bnHowevertheARPUofRMB912isbetterthantheforecastatRMB873whichinourviewdemonstratedasustainedconsumptionsegmentationtrendFigure1NooftouristsduringNationalDayholidayNooftouristsmnRecoveryrate-comparedwiththatin2019RHL9001408001207001006005008040060300402001002000DragonBoatFestivalBoatDragonFestivalBoatDragonLaborDayLaborDayLaborDayLaborSpringFestivalSpringMidFestivalSpringMidFestivalSpringNationalDayNationalDayNationalFestivalAutumnQingmingFestivalQingmingQingmingFestivalQingmingNationalDayMidDayNational--AutumnFestivalAutumnFestivalAutumn2021202220212022---202120222023--20212022----2021202220232023--20222021-----SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2TravelincomeduringNationalDayholidayTourismincomeRMBbnRecoveryrate-comparedwiththatin2019RHL8001207001006005008040060300402001002000DragonBoatFestivalBoatDragonFestivalBoatDragonQingmingFestivalQingmingFestivalQingmingLaborDayLaborDayLaborDayLaborSpringFestivalSpringMidFestivalSpringMidFestivalSpringNationalDayNationalDayNationalFestivalAutumnNationalDayMidDayNational--AutumnFestivalAutumnFestivalAutumn202120222021202220212022---202120222023--20212022----2021202220232023-------SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE29Oct2023TCOMordercontributionfromlong-haultravelonrobustrecoverytrackPerTCOMduringthisyearsNationalDayholidayMid-AutumnFestivallocalandshort-haultravelbookingordersaccountedfor49oftotalbookingwhilethatoflong-haultravelincreasedto512022NationalDayholiday352021NationalDayholidayc50Thehealthyrecoveryofrelativelyhigh-marginlong-haultravellikelyheraldstheontrackmarginexpansionforTCOMin3Q23inourviewPerQunarbookingvolumeforhigh-endhotelsonitsplatformduringNationalDayholidayMid-AutumnFestivalhasreachedhistoricalhighandthegrowthofbookingvolumeforhigh-endhotelswasmuchfasterthanthatofmid-to-lowendhotelsThebookingvolumeforhigh-endhotelsjumpedover470duringthisyearsholidayperiodascomparedtothatofpre-pandemicperiodin2019LeadinggamescompaniesmaintainsolidperformanceduringtheholidayTencentNetEaseeachhad33gamesrankingamongtheiOStop10gamesgrossingchartduringtheholidaybasedonavgrankingduringtheholidayseeFig3PerCNGslatestreportpublishedon8OctChinasonlinegamemarketrevenuegrewby461YoYtoRMB292bninAug2023mainlydrivenbystronggrowthofmobilegamerevenue637YoYduringthesummervacationSeveralnewgamesdeliveredsolidgrossingperformanceinAugustCNGestimatesthefirst-monthrevenueofTencentsMapleStoryMobileandNetEasesDunkCityDynastysurpassedRMB900mnandRMB400mninAugustOverseasrevenuefromChinasself-developedgameswasup55YoYtoUS15bninAugustFigure3RankingoniOSgamesgrossingchartDateHonorofKingsPeacekeeperEliteJusticeEggyPartyMapleStoryMobileFantasyWestwardJourneyTencentTencentNetEaseNetEaseTencentNetEase100623132596100523132568100423125467100323125467100223134756100123135647093023134567092923143856Avgranking102938555968SourceQimaiCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE39Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4