研究报告全文：MN4Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateBYDE285HKScenarioanalysisofJabilbizsuggested5-10earningsupsideinFY2425EReiterateBUYTargetPriceHK4198FollowingBYDEsannouncementtoacquireJabilsmobilitybusinessiPhonePreviousTPHK4198casingforRMB158bnUS22bnweconductedscenarioanalysisoftheUpDownside166acquisitiontoBYDEsearningsandourbasecasesuggested510upsideCurrentPriceHK3600toBYDEsnetprofitinFY2425Eassuming1518iPhonecasingshareallocationand3438NPMinFY2425EInadditionwebelieveintegrationChinaTechnologyofJabilsiPhonecasingbusinesswillaccelerateBYDEssharegaininApplesAlexNGmultipleproductcategoriesFor2H23E24Eweremainpositiveonhigh-end85239000881AndroidrecoveryegHuaweisharegaininiPadOEMcomponentsandrapidalexngcmbicomhkgrowthinhouseholdenergystorageandNEVbizThestocknowtradesat218x177xFY2324EPEwhichisattractiveReiterateBUYHanqingLIlihanqingcmbicomhkAcquisitionofJabilsMobilitybizisaccretivetoBYDEsprofitabilityBasedonfinancialinformationdisclosedinannouncementJabilmobilitysStockDataNPMcameinat533431inFY21229M23whicharewellaboveMktCapHKmn811154Avg3mthstoHKmn2145261727forBYDEsNPMinFY21221H23Lookingaheadwe52wHighLowHK37501702expecttheacquisitionofJabilsmobilitybusinesswillleadtosignificantTotalIssuedSharesmn22532synergieswithBYDEscomponentproductportfolioanddrivesharegaininSourceFactSetiPhonesupplychainacrossproductcategoriesegiPhoneiPadWatchShareholdingStructureScenarioanalysis5-10earningsupsideinFY2425EinourbaseGoldenLinkWorldwideLtd658caseAssuming11518iPhonecasingshareallocationinFY2425EGoldDragonflyLtd50SourceHKEx23438NPMofJabilsbizinFY2425Eand3interestexpenseforRMB154bnloanat6interestrateourbasecasesuggested510SharePerformanceupsidetoBYDEsnetprofitinFY2425EwhileourbullcasescenarioimpliedAbsoluteRelative1022upsidetoBYDEsearningsinFY2425EWewillreflecttheimpact1-mth-10773-mth466643intoourmodelafterdealclose6-mth4376922H23EoutlookHigh-endAndroidrecoveryandiPadsharegainWeSourceFactSetbelieveHuaweiscomebackandAndroidHoHrecoverywillboostoverall12-mthPricePerformanceprofitabilityin2H23EInadditioniPadsharegaininOEMcomponentswillleadtobetterproductmixandrevenuegrowthFY24EStronghouseholdenergystorageandrobustNEVwithproductexpansionBackedbystrongproductportfolioweexpectsoliddemandfromhouseholdenergystorageandsmarthomeproductsForNEVgrowthpotentialwillcomefromsmartcockpitandautonomousdrivingbackedbystrongparentcoorderandproductexpansionegintegratedparkingSourceFactSetthermalmgmtcockpitADASactivesuspensionsystemReiterateBUYwithTPofHK4198WereiterateBUYforBYDEspositiveoutlookonhigh-endAndroidrecoveryApplesharegainandNEVnewintelligentupsideThestocknowtradesat218x177xFY2324EwhichisattractiveinourviewOurTPofHK4198isbasedon184xFY24EPEEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn89057107186123327141246156988YoYgrowth218204151145111NetprofitRMBmn2309918576347674273253204YoYgrowth575196872229245EPSReportedRMB103082154190236ConsensusEPSRMBnana155209273PEx322221218177142PBx3116262320Yield0309020607ROE10075127138151SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk4Oct2023AnalysisofBYDEsacquisitionofJabilsmobilitybusinessFormalAgreementBYDEannouncedon26SepttoenterintoformalagreementwithJabiltoacquire100ofJabilsmobilitybusinessforRMB158bnUS22bnwhichmanufacturescomponentsforconsumerelectronicsandmainlylocatedinChengduandWuxiLoanAgreementwithParentcoBYDGroupBYDaslenderagreedtoprovideloantoBYDEintheprincipalamountofRMB154bnUS21bnattheinterestratebasedonSOFRplus68bpsie55-60TheloanisrepayablebyBYDEwithinoneyearandBYDEintendstorepaytheloanbythecashinflowgeneratedfromoperatingactivitiesorotherfund-raisingactivitiesifneededFinancialInformationofTargetCompanyJabilsmobilitybusinessTargetcompanyJabilsmobilebusinessreportedrevenueofUS445bn426bn344bnandnetprofitofUS237mn143mn107mninFY21229M23whichimpliednetprofitmarginof533431vsBYDE261727inFY21221H23Italsoimpliedacquisitionvaluationat154xFY22PEvsBYDE221xFY22PEFigure1ReportedfinancialsofJabilsmobilitybusinessYE31AugFY21FY22FY9M23RevenueUSDmn445142603437ProfitbeforetaxUSDmn264161120NetProfitUSDmn237143107Pretaxmargin593835Netmargin533431SourceCompanyannouncementScenarioAnalysisofacquisitionofJabilsmobilitybiztoBYDEsearningsInbasecase1518shareallocationofiPhonecasing3438NPMinFY2425Eitimplies510upsidetoBYDEsFY2425EearningsInbullcase1822shareallocationofiPhonecasing3445NPMinFY2425Eitimplies1022upsidetoBYDEsFY2425EearningsInbearcase1516shareallocationofiPhonecasing3235NPMinFY2425Eitimplies36upsidetoBYDEsFY2425EearningsFigure2ScenarioanalysisofearningsimpacttoBYDEBasecaseBullCaseBearCaseRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EAssemblyAppleAndroid731377875082000731377875082000731377875082000Componentmetalglassplastic136614362649707136614967457771136614362645675ApplecomponentsJabilsbiz-3024036288-3628844352-3024032256iPhonecasingshrallocation015180182201516Androidcomponents136611338613419136611338613419136611338613419NewintelligentAutointelligent365294911061569365294911061569365294911061569TotalRevenue123327171486193276123327177534201340123327171486189244YoY391344133910NP-Jabilsbiz-10281379-12341996-9681129NPM003438003445003235NP-BYDEsexistingbiz347742735320347742735320347742735320NPM283034285237283034TotalNetprofit347744795877347746856494347744195627NPM282630282632282630YoY293135392727ImpacttoNetProfit051001022036SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE24Oct2023OverviewofJabilsMobilitysegmentFigure3JabilsMobilitysegmentrevenueinFY19-23EUSbn5027304525402035301525494910333748200515-3010-705-500-10FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23EJabilsMobilityRevenueYoYDMSCoreMarginSourceJabilsannouncementBloombergFigure4OverviewofJabilsmobilitybusinesslocationinChinaWuxiChengduMainManufacturingLocationOverviewApplicationsServiceOfferingsBusinessAreaOfferafullsuiteofsupplychainHardwarePCBassemblyFactoryareassolutionsfromdesignservicestoautomationmanualBoxbuild156485sqmseamlesscustomsclearanceandafter-jobdigitizationConfigure-to-orderEMSmarketservicesincludingnon-JabilSoftwareAutomatedmanufacturingFloorspacemadeproductsautomationsystems84263sqmDigitalhighwayEstablishedinDec2015MobilephoneProductsincludeseriesofsmall1800setsofmostadvancedCNCrelatedpartsmetalpartshousingmachinesJGP693235sqftOneofthemostreliablesuppliersofthefamousmobilephonebrandintheworldProvidesworld-classengineeringandConsumerlifestyleMetalmanufacturingservicestocustomersinMobility1765281sqftChinaandoverseasAworldleaderinconsumerhandheldConsumerEstheticpreciseandstructuralWuxielectronicselectronicsmechanicalplasticandmetalMobilitycomponentsPlastics120420sqftInnovativedecoratingtechnologiesandoptimizedmechanicalsolutionsOneofthemostreliablesuppliersofElectronicsProductionofmobilephonethefamousmobilephonebrandintherelatedpartsdigitalcameraStampingworldrelatedpartsfinepunchingdies356569sqftprecisioncavitydiesandmoldstandardpartsDiversifiedmoldmanufacturingConsumerFromstandardmoldtohighcapabilitieselectronicsprecisionmoldDelivercomprehensivedesignHealthcareImplementself-developedToolToolingmanufacturingsupplychainandPackagingSmartManufacturingSystemto12100sqftproductmanagementservicesforAutomotiveproductestablishuniqueSmartFactoryincustomersinabroadrangeofToolingindustryindustriesAsoneofJabilslargestsitesinChinaConsumerLayoutconduciveforstrongJGPChengduofferscapacityforfutureMobilesecuritysystemcontrolexpansionanddevelopmentOffers24-hourcustomersupportCapacityTheonlygovernment-certifiedChengdusiteforWorldwideTechServices7170000sqftexpansionCNCandAnodizingOfferscapacityforfutureexpansionanddevelopmentSourceCompanywebsitePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE34Oct2023EarningsforecastsFigure5RevenuebreakdownRMBmnFY221H232H23EFY23EFY24EFY25EAssembly680543606237075731377875082000YoY22364-109784Componentmetalglassplastic1415549868675136611338613419YoY-10-257165-3-20Metal730431043104620852774486Plastic322111321672280324692099Glassceramic513024723916638859156802Newintelligent1520789999948189472273627284YoY22301200252020E-cigarette15404501612206228873464YoY54500300344020Householdenergystorage15005552400295550247535YoY---977050Autointelligent9263613311449175822637434286YoY1468990905030Total1071865618067147123327141246156988YoY202866151511SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure6PLforecastRMBmnFY221H232H23EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue1071865618067147123327141246156988YoY20428658151145111Costofsales1008365177161776113547129927143634Grossprofit63504409537197801132013354GPM597880798085YoY53894335540157180SGA17709211021194223312590ofrev222222RD396924592686514553675966ofrev444444Operatingprofit61110291665269336224798OPM122233YoY-5723261933413432Netprofit185815161961347742735320NPM172729283034YoY-2013960872325SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE44Oct2023ValuationMaintainBUYwithTPofHK4198WemaintainBUYandderiveourTPbasedonSOTPvaluationtoreflectBYDEsbusinessdiversificationwithdifferentgrowthprofilesandvisibilityOurTPofHK4198isbasedonweighted-averagetargetPEmultipleof184xFY24EPEWeassign15xPEtoitsassemblyEMSbusinessand15xPEforcomponentbusinessin-linewithTWHK-listedpeersgivenAndroidbusinessmarginrecoveryandApplebusinessexpansionWeassign20xfornewintelligentandNEVsegmentstoreflectitsgrowthpotentialandhigherearningsvisibilityFigure7BYDESOTPvaluationBusinesssegmentofFY24EProfitFY24EEPSRMBTargetPEAssembly1603115xComponents1603115xMasks00008xNewIntelligent3005720xAutointelligent3707120xOthers00010xTotalRMBImpliedPE190184xTPHK4198SourcesCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure8PeersvaluationMarketUpCapPriceTPDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EBYDE285HKBUY103573600420172181772522119130Tongda698HKBUY94008017113422601012365AACTech2018HKHOLD20231322140623313306062746TKGroup2283HKBUY1451363112749-06-133170JuTeng3336HKNR185121NANA------Everwin300115CHNR17051034NANA285138201871132LensTech300433CHNR83691228NANA19814913126785Foxconn2354TTNR25105740NANA13210605055870Catcher2474TTNR38601835NANA12416208086144Average15912611107089SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure912MforwardPEbandFigure1012MforwardPBband60504550403540303025202015101005000Mar-14Mar-15Mar-16Mar-17Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Sep-14Sep-15Sep-16Sep-17Sep-18Sep-19Sep-20Sep-21Sep-221-yrForwardPEMean1-yrForwardPBMeanMean1SDMean-1SDMean1SDMean-1SDSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE54Oct2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue7312189057107186123327141246156988Costofgoodssold6349283028100836113547129927143634Grossprofit96296029635097801132013354Sellingexpense237275535639706785Adminexpense67310411235130216241805RDexpense291333083969514553675966Operatingprofit58061405611269336224798Otherincomeexpense48711041386127212721272Pre-taxprofit622124651939387348015978Incometax77915581397528658Minorityinterest000000Netprofit544123101858347742735320Adjustednetprofit544123101858347742735320BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets260692763040488355084520743327Cashequivalents346628256244256139693805Accountreceivables14391924010471121571609215306Inventories68911056717046140621841917489STbankdeposits000000Othercurrentassets132049986727672767276727Non-currentassets108251231415006170541926421629PPE96931118212941151951762520227Deferredincometax0201481481481481Othernon-currentassets1132931158313781157921Totalassets379764117556994542686639767120Currentliabilities148401622030143239873227128205Short-termborrowings000000Accountpayables81461172422002158472413120065Taxpayable57184363363363363Othercurrentliabilities663643127777777777777777Non-currentliabilities8649281216121612161216Deferredincome147150231231231231Othernon-currentliabilities313404395395395395Totalliabilities157041714831359252043348829422Sharecapital405240524052405240524052Otherreserves182201997521583250122885833646Totalshareholdersequity222722402725635290643291037698Minorityinterest000000Totalequityandliabilities379764117556994542686639767120PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE64Oct2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation622124651939387348015978Depreciationamortization176017171987229826543050Changeinworkingcapital474522282568485872350Others27187124304436565Netcashfromoperations320917686370101070136112InvestingCapitalexpenditure279532063859444050855652Others18600000Netcashfrominvesting298132063859444050855652FinancingDividendpaid160232372174427532Others17304359939393Netcashfromfinancing1570275430266520625NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear165134662825625825613969Exchangedifference1610721352000Cashattheendoftheyear346628256258256139693805SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE74Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE8