研究报告全文：MN29Sep2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdatePradaSpA1913HK3QpreviewEmbracinganormalisedquarterTargetPriceHK700Pradadeliveredanexceptional1Hperformancewith174reportedsalesPreviousTPHK721growthUponitsforthcoming3QdatareleaseweprojectrevenuegrowthwillUpDownside575starttonormalisetowardsmid-single-digitandthisshouldnotcomeinasatotalCurrentPriceHK445surprisetothemarketinourviewconsideringthewell-communicatedmanagementguidancegivenatthebeginningoftheyearByregionwecaveatChinaConsumerthatsalesinEuropewilllikelyfacethetoughestcompamongallwhenthereturnJosephWONGoftouristtraffictoWesternEuropedrovetheregionssalesgrowthto30in852390008383Q22AsiawouldlikelyfacesimilarheadwindowingtoShanghaisreopeninginjosephwongcmbicomhkthesamequarterlastyearOntheflipsidemomentumintheUSshouldremainlukewarmandyetthemagnitudeinourviewisunlikelytodeterioratefurtherBellaLIfromtheunderlying6declinerecordedin2Q23Thesequentialimprovement85237576202bellalicmbicomhkweobservedinJulysalescouldimplybusinessperformancehasbeenwelltakencareofGrowthinJapanandtheMiddleEastsustainDownthePLweStockDatadonotexpectthequartersGPMtodeviatefromwhatwesawin1HahistoricalMktCapHKmn1137397highofc80whichwasfuelledbysustainablediverssuchasmixupgradeandAvg3mthstoHKmn60552wHighLowHK60503500scaleefficiencyWeupdateourmodelmainlywitha12pphighergrossmarginTotalIssuedSharesmn25588anda29pphigherEBITmarginWhilerecentsharepricecorrectionhaspriced-SourceFactSetinex-antethenormalisingrevenuetrajectoryofthecomingquarterswearguethatthemarketcouldhaveoverlookedtheprofitabilitystep-upthatPradaisShareholdingStructurePradaHoldingSpA799deliveringThisisnottomentionthemeritofgeographicaldiversificationandInvesco49thescarcityvalueasagloballuxurybrandthatthecompanycouldofferintheSourceHKExHKChinastockmarketWeremainBuyerofPradaSharePerformanceRecaponmanagementtargetsPradasnewmanagementsetoutAbsoluteRelativeEUR45bnrevenueanda20adjustedEBITmarginastheirmedium-term1-mth-148-124financialtargetsatthebeginningofthisyearOfnotethelatterhas3-mth-134-65reportedlybeenattainedin1Hwhiletheformertracked49tothetarget6-mth-213-114SourceFactSetStockConnectWeagainremindinvestorsthatPradaissettoparticipate12-mthPricePerformanceintheschemeandtheeventcouldfurtheroptimizethecompanysHK1913HKHSIrebasedshareholderbaseinourviewThatsaidthelimitedmarketfreefloatcould70remainatechnicaldragtosharepricewhenthecontrollingfamilyholds6050approximately80oftheshares40EarningsrevisionWekeepour2023-25Erevenueestimateslargely3020unchangedbutraiseour2023EgrossEBITmarginsby12pp29pp10respectivelytoreflectthepositivesfrommixupgradeandscaleefficiency0Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23ValuationOurTPisDCF-basedInourmodelweassumeWACCof77SourceBloombergandrisk-freerateof35OurTPimplies196xend-23EEVEBITwhichlargelybenchmarksto200xglobalpeeraverageRelatedreports1CTGDF601888CH2QinlinewithEarningsSummaryprofitalertsubtlerecoveryahead-28YE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EAug2023RevenueEURmn336642014590500453522Samsonite1910HK2Qrevnp3349strengthextendingto2HYoYgrowth38924893907018Aug2023NetprofitEURmn294346526254708078343PradaSpA1913HKAdecent1HYoYgrowthna581344132106thoughnotastraightbeat-28Jul2023EPSReportedEUR0110180240280314ChowTaiFook1929HKAnotherConsensusEPSEURnana026029032solidquarter11Jul2023PEx475292221195177PBx4539363331EVEBITx26815512210795Yield1321273134ROE99141171177181NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk29Sep2023Figure1OurmajorDCFassumptionFigure2DCFsensitivityanalysisDCFValuationSummarymHKDSensitivitytoWACCandlong-termgrowthNetPresentValue86407007576777879TerminalValue116751870969868667566519717705693682671Enterprisevalue2031520724712700689677-Netdebtandotheradjustments75921732720707695684TotalEquityvalue2107422741728715703691Numberofsharesmn2559DCFvaluepershareHK700WACCassumptionsSensitivitytoRFandlong-termgrowthDebtlevel1277003334353637Equitylevel87319716704693682672Taxrate34020719708696686675Borrowingpremium0020723711700689678Post-taxcostofdebt232172771570469268221731719707696685Riskfreerate35RiskPremium50Beta10Costofequity85SensitivitytoRFandEquityRiskPremiumERP7003334353637WACC77142412071174114211121083251192115911281099107150723711700689678Long-termgrowth202611621130110110731047EURHKD852611471117108810611035SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure3EarningsrevisionsNewOldDiffEURmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue459050045352459950465552-02-08-36GrossProfit3681402843243634399143971309-17EBIT10561181129592310181126143160150Netprofit625708783562625696112133126GrossMargin80280580879079179212ppt14ppt16pptEBITmargin23023624220120220329ppt34ppt39pptNetmargin13614114612212412514ppt18ppt21pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure4CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffEURmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue459050045352470551165534-24-22-33GrossProfit368140284324375340854427-19-14-23EBIT105611811295102311411267323522Netprofit625708783648738818-34-40-43GrossMargin80280580879879880004ppt07ppt08pptEBITmargin23023624221722322913ppt13ppt13pptNetmargin136141146138144148-01ppt-03ppt-01pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE229Sep2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecEURmnRevenue242333664201459050045352Costofgoodssold6798188899099761028Grossprofit174325473312368140284324Operatingexpenses172320482467262628473029Sellingexpense126014211704181319612082Adminexpense154217266280305326SGAexpense207294359395430460RDexpense102115137138150161Operatingprofit20499845105611811295EBITDA76811671508181519942159Depreciation195158169220240252Otheramortisation304042463537EBIT20499845105611811295Interestincome237777Interestexpense1096666NetInterestincomeexpense871111Foreignexchangegainloss2418000Otherincomeexpense172971464646Others453946575757Pre-taxprofit5242271195410791193Incometax3127242324367406Aftertaxprofit54295469629712787Minorityinterest014444Discontinuedoperations000000Netprofit54294465625708783BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecEURmnCurrentassets165521702425284232553697Cashequivalents4429821092131616131958Accountreceivables290330332367400428Inventories66666376091810011070Othercurrentassets256196241241241241Non-currentassets487347894953492148814831PPE150615651577165417251788Intangibles832829818709599485Othernon-currentassets253523952558255825582558Totalassets652869597378776381368528Currentliabilities122714201490152715671600Short-termborrowings301249161161161161Accountpayables290390402439479512Taxpayable69144278278278278Othercurrentliabilities568636650650650650Non-currentliabilities244924112387238723872387Long-termborrowings451493396396396396Deferredincome293041414141Othernon-currentliabilities196818881950195019501950Totalliabilities367638303877391439533987Sharecapital256256256256256256Retainedearnings54294465625708783Otherreserves263025642761294531923471Totalshareholdersequity283231143482382641564511Minorityinterest201519232731Totalequityandliabilities652869597378776381368528PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE329Sep2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecEURmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation5242271195410791193Depreciationamortization648624662701753801Taxpaid4437220324367406Changeinworkingcapital821081041567664Others1232774596164Netcashfromoperations59211441124123314491587InvestingCapitalexpenditure107219241235235239Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments000000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term000000investmentsOthers43829000Netcashfrominvesting150137250235235239FinancingDividendpaid091180281378428Netborrowings6511179493538575Proceedsfromshareissues000000Others330393428000Netcashfromfinancing3954957877759161004NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear421442982109213161613Exchangedifference262824000Cashattheendoftheyear4429821092131616131958GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue249389248939070Grossprofit2484613001119474Operatingprofit9352389869224911997EBITDA2305202922049883EBIT9352389869224911997Netprofitnana581344132106PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin720757788802805808Operatingmargin08148201230236242EBITDAmargin317347359395398403Netprofitmargin2287111136141146ReturnonequityROE1999141171177181GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx010102020303Currentratiox131516192123Receivableturnoverdays437357288292292292Inventoryturnoverdays1004719661730730730Payableturnoverdays436423349349349349VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPEna475292221195177PEdilutedna475292221195177PB314539363331PCFPS1461221211129587Divyield101321273134EV139582134089131136128897125925122477EVSales584031282523EVEBIT695826815512210795EVEBITDA18211587716357SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE429Sep2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5