研究报告全文：25Sep2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaAutoSectorMoreNEVmodelrolloutsasapositivecatalystOUTPERFORMMaintainChinaAutoSectorChinaspassenger-vehiclePVretailsalesvolumerose2YoYand8MoMto192mnunitsinAug2023the3rdhighestAuginhistoryand1higherthanSHIJiCFAourpriorforecastYTDretailsalesvolumerose3YoYWholesalevolumerose852376187287YoYand8MoMto227mnunitsinAug2023thebestAuginhistoryandshijicmbicomhk2higherthanourpriorforecastWholesalevolumerose7YoYor099mnunitsYoYYTDaidedby70YoYgrowthor101mnunitsYoYofexportsDOUWenjingCFA85269394751InventoriesatdealersinChinaroseabout52000unitslastmonthhigherthandouwenjingcmbicomhkourexpectationleadingtoarestockingof028mnunitsinthefirsteightmonthsGUSijieof2023basedonourcalculationsNEVmakersadded03mnunitsofinventoriesjasongucmbicomhkYTDandICEmakerscutinventoriesbyabout24000unitsYTDWeestimateunitsChinawholesalevolumebymonthbothindustrywideandNEVinventorylevelstobeabout19monthsbasedon3000000ourretailsalesvolumeforecastsforthenextfewmonths25000002000000Wholesalevolumein2023couldhitasurprisingall-timehighWemaintainourpriorforecastof19mnunits2YoYforChinasretailsales1500000volumeinSep2023and8mnunits44YoYfortheretailsalesvolumein1000000theremainingfourmonthsof2023Thereforeweraiseourfull-year2023500000JanMarMayJulSepNovretailsalesvolumeforecastby048mnunitsto2127mnunitsor38YoY201920202021growthAccordinglyweraiseour2023wholesalevolumeforecastby05mn20222023unitsto2488mnunits56YoYwhichwouldbeatChinashistoricalSourceCAAMCPCACMBIGMhighestwholesalevolumeof2472mnunitsin2017WeprojectSep2023units3000000Chinaretailsalesvolumebymonthwholesalevolumetobe228mnunitsassuminganinventoryrestockingof01mnunits25000002000000WeestimateNEVretailsalesvolumetorise30YoYto07mnunitsinSep15000002023assumingamarketshareof367NEVmarketshareonaretailbasishasbeenrisingsequentiallysinceApr2023aswehadexpectedandwe1000000500000expectsuchtrendtocontinueThereforeweraiseourChina2023NEVretailJanMarMayJulSepNovsalesvolumeforecastto73mnunitsfromprior71mnunitsAccordinglywe201920202021reviseupChinas2023NEVwholesalevolumeslightlyfrom85mnunitsto2022202386mnunitsNEVwholesalevolumemayhitanall-timehighagaininSepSourceCATARCCMBIGM2023withourforecastof083mnunitsStocksCoveredTPNameTickerRatingLCWeseeapossibleshort-timesharepricereboundwithacceleratednewLiAutoLIUSBUY55LiAuto2015HKBUY215NEVmodelrolloutsBasedonthedatawecompiledtherewereninemajorNIONIOUSHOLD10NEVmodellaunchesinAug2023andwouldbeabout12inSepand40inXpengXPEVUSHOLD14Xpeng9868HKHOLD554Q23ThesemorecompetitivemodelscouldbeapositivecatalystforshareGeely175HKBUY14GWM2333HKBUY12priceintheautosectorNEVwholesalevolumemayhit10mnunitsin2024GWM601633CHBUY32withamarketshareofabove40inourviewWebelieveinvestorscouldGAC2238HKBUY7GAC601238CHBUY14paymoreattentiontotechnologicaladvancementatChineseautomakersBYD1211HKHOLD240BYD002594CHHOLD265whichcouldbethekeytotheirprofitabilityamidprolongedpricewarYongda3669HKBUY5Meidong1268HKBUY72InthisreportwesummarizekeyautodataforbothindustrywideandkeyEVA838HKBUY15companiesinAug2023fromdifferentperspectivessuchasretailsalesSourceBloombergCMBIGMvolumeinventoriesleadingindicatorsdiscountsetcRelatedReportChinaAutoSector2H23autosalescouldbeatamidresilientJulAug25Aug2023PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk25Sep2023ContentsCompanyWatchList3GreatWallMotor3Geely4BYD4GuangzhouAutomobileGroup5NEVSegment10WeraiseourNEVretailandwholesalevolumeagain10NEVbycity-tierTier-1citiesunderperformedinAug11NEVbycitytypeShanghaitopsinvolumeShenzheninmarketshare12NEVbymodelBYDandTeslacontributed67oftheincrementYTD13BEVbrandsBMWwaskickedoutfromthetop1014PHEVbrandsChanganandGeelyarecatchingup15OtherIndustryIndicatorstoWatch17PVbycitytierTier-4andbelowcitiesoutperformedinAug17Chinese-brandtrailing12-monthmarketshareroseto4717TraditionalluxuryunderperformedYTD18AppendixNEVLeadingIndicators20PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE225Sep2023CompanyWatchListGreatWallMotorGreatWallswholesalevolumeincludingpick-uptrucksrose29YoYand5MoMtoabout114000unitsinAug2023strongerthantheoverallindustrys7YoYincreasemainlyduetoitslowYoYcomparisonbaseRetailsalesvolumeofPVsandpick-uptruckscombinedrose4YoYandfell1MoMtoabout74000unitslastmonthleadingtoaninventoryadditionofabout9100unitsbasedonourcalculationGreatWallsinventorylevelisabout18monthsnowstillabitbetterthantheindustryaveragelevelGreatWallscumulativewholesalevolumerose5YoYtoabout742000unitsinthefirsteightmonthsof2023slightlybelowtheoverallindustrys7YoYincreaseGreatWallsNEVmarketshareinitsPVwholesalevolumefellto27inAugfromarecordhighof31inJul2023GreatWallsmajornewPHEVslaunchedin1H23includingtheHavalXiaolongseriesH-DogandWeyLanshanallshowedMoMsalesvolumedeclineinAug2023Thecompanyneedsmorecompetitivenewmodelstodrivesalesin4Q23GreatWallnowappearstodifferentiateitselfwithmoreoff-roadstylingandfour-wheeldriveHi4ItsnewPHEVsunveiledattheChengduAutoShowincludingtheHavalMenglongTank400andGaoshanMPVallutilizeitsHi4hybridtechnologyBoththeMenglongandTank400arestyledwithoff-roadappearanceWeareabitconcernedaboutthepotentialsalescannibalizationbetweentheMenglongandXiaolongMaxGreatWallsexportsrose14MoMtotheall-timehighlevelofalmost31000unitsinAug2023aidedbytheDagouJolionandM6InfactGreatWallssalesvolumeMoMgrowthlastmonthwasmainlydrivenbytheexportsWemaintainour2023full-yearsalesvolumeforecastof125mnunitsimplyinganaveragemonthlysalesvolumeof127000unitsfortheremainingfourmonthsoftheyearInAug2023theweightedaveragediscountsatGreatWallsdealerswidenedslightlyMoMasthenewmodelscannotoffsetthewideningdiscountsfortheM6Tank300andFlashCatEVFigure1GreatWallMotordiscountsatdealersFigure2GeelydiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE325Sep2023GeelyGeelyswholesalevolumerose24YoYand10MoMtoabout153000unitsinAug2023withZeekrssalesvolumelargelyflatMoMatabout12000unitsNEVsaccountedfor31ofGeelystotalwholesalevolumelastmonthRetailsalesvolumeatGeelyrose13YoYand6MoMtoabout123000unitsinAugGeelyaddeditsinventoriesintodealersbyabout5000unitsinAug2023ItsinventorylevelatdealerswasabouttwomonthsasofAug2023basedonourcalculationsGeelysaveragediscountsatdealerswidenedabitMoMinAug2023afternarrowingfortwomonthsThatwasinlinewithourpriorargumentasGeelyprovidedadditionalfloatingrebatestodealersinAugformostinternal-combustionengineICEmodelsGeelysoveralldiscountshavebeenaround7-9forsixmonthsWeexpectitsdiscountstobelargelystableforthenextfewmonthsTheZeekr001providedpricediscountsofRMB30000-37000about10from11Auginabidtorushforitsfull-yeartargetof014mnunitsThatcouldboostitssalesovertheshorttermalthoughithadnotbeenreflectedbyretailsalesvolumeinAugTheZeekr001sretailsalesvolumeremainedlargelyflatMoMat5400unitsinAugGeelyscumulativewholesalevolumerose15YoYtoabout985000unitsinthefirsteightmonthsof2023TheGalaxyL7PHEVswholesalevolumeroseto11000unitswithretailsalesvolumeof7200unitslastmonthItappearsthattheGalaxyL7ssalesmomentumisstrongerthantheHavalXiaolongsTheGalaxyseriessecondPHEVtheGalaxyL6PHEVMSRPRMB115800-149800maystartdeliveriesinSep2023WebelieveitspricingcouldbecompetitiveThemid-to-largesizeSUVJiyue01EVjointdevelopedbyGeely65andBaidu45haslaunchedpre-salesandmaystarttodeliverfromNov2023WeareoftheviewthatitscurrentautonomousdrivingADrelatedfunctionsarestillamongthetoptierinChinaItcouldbeapositivecatalystforGeelyssharepriceItsnewordersrefundablereached15000unitsinthefirst24hoursofpre-salesBYDBYDsPVwholesalevolumerose58YoYand5MoMtoabout274000unitsinAug2023thehighestinhistoryagainBYDsretailsalesvolumerose43YoYandfell6MoMtoabout224000unitslastmonthwhichledtoaninventoryrestockingofabout25000unitsItsinventorylevelatdealerswasabout15monthsasofAug2023stillthelowestamongautomakerswhichadoptdealersalesnetworkalthoughitsinventoriesatdealershaverisenforeightmonthsinarowBYDsexportsincreasedtoabout25000unitsinAugfromabout18000unitsinJuland10500unitsinJundrivenbytheDolphinEVSeagullEVandYuanPlusEVThecompanytargetsfor200000-unitexportsforFY23Eimplyinganaveragemonthlyexportofabout21000unitsfortheremainingfourmonthsWeareoftheviewthatBYDcouldbeatsuchexporttargetTherecentEUprobeintoChinese-madeNEVssubsidiescouldaccelerateBYDsdecisiontobuildafactoryinEuropeinourviewasthecompanyaimstodoubleitsoverseassalesvolumein2024BYDsaveragediscountsappearedtonarrowtoaround2inAug2023aidedbylowereddiscountsfortheSongseriesastheautomakerclearedalltheinventoriesfortheoldSongseriesInfactBYDsactualdiscountsduringJun-AugcouldbemorestablethanourdataPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE425Sep2023showedbasedonourchannelchecksOurcalculationfortheoveralldiscountsassumesequalsalesvolumeforeachtrimlevelofonemodelgiventhelackofdatagranularityNeverthelessBYDsdiscountsremainedthelowestamongallmajorautomakersGivenBYDscurrentcostadvantageinNEVswebelieveitspricingstrategycouldpartiallydependonthesalesgapbetweenitstargetandactualvolumeTheDenzaN7andN8startedtoprovidediscountsinAugastheirMSRPswereabittoohighinourviewWeexpectsuchdiscountstofurtherwidenTheDenzaN7EVstarteddeliveriesinAug2023withwholesalevolumeof1480unitsandtheDenzaN8PHEVmaystartdeliveriesinSepDenzahaslowereditsFY23Esalestargetfrom021mnunitsto016mnunitswhichimpliesanaveragemonthlysalesofover20000unitsfortheremainingfourmonthsManagementbelievestheD9couldreach15000unitspermonthin4Q23EAspremiumoff-roadstyleSUVstheYangwangU8pricedatRMB1098000willstartdeliveriesinlateSepandtheBao5likelytobepricedaboveRMB400000isscheduledtodeliverin4Q23BothbrandsFangchengbaoandYangwangplantolaunchthreemorenewmodelsin2024respectivelyInourviewitisstillabitearlytodrawaconclusionforBYDsupmarketattemptSimilartotheDenzaN7andN8weareconcernedaboutthesetwopremiumbrandspricingstrategyFigure3BYDdiscountsatdealersFigure4GACTrumpchiAiondiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMGuangzhouAutomobileGroupTotalwholesalevolumeatGACGroupfell10YoYandrose4MoMtoabout197000unitsinAug2023muchweakerthantheindustryaverageGACssalesvolumewasmainlydraggedbyGACHonda-40YoYandGACToyota-17YoYSalesvolumeofGACAionremainedflatMoMataround45000unitslastmonth67YoYRetailsalesvolumeofAionrose40MoMtoabout51000unitsinAug2023atacostofwiderdiscountsWeestimateAionsinventoryleveltofalltoabout18monthsnowafteraninventorycutof6000unitslastmonthThesalesramp-upfortheHyperGTEVwhichstarteddeliveriesinlateJulwasslowerthanexpectedpartiallyduetolimitedtrimlevelonsaleAllothervariantsshouldstartdeliveriesfromSepWearestilloftheviewthatkeytoAionsvaluationnowisitsprofitabilitywhichliesontheHyperseriessalesvolumePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE525Sep2023GACToyotasretailsalesvolumefell12YoYandrose6MoMtoabout78000unitsinAug2023ItsinventoryleveldeclinedforafifthconsecutivemonthtoaboutonemonthasofAug2023GACToyotasaveragediscountswidenedslightlyMoMinAug2023toarecordhighlevelTherisingdiscountshavepushedToyotatoraiserebatesfordealersbasedonourchannelchecksThecompanynowattemptstoimproveproductmixinordertopreventmargindeclineRetailvolumeofGACHondafell36YoYandrose2MoMtoabout45000unitsinAug2023whichledtoaninventorycutofabout4200unitsYetitsinventorylevelisstillclosetotwomonthsbasedonourcalculationGACHondasdiscountsatdealerswidenedtoarecordhighagainlastmonthGACHondafacesmorechallengesthisyearthaneverbeforeinourviewandweseenosigntoturnaroundintheshorttermFigure5GACToyotadiscountsatdealersFigure6GACHondadiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMFigure7BeijingBenzdiscountsatdealersFigure8BMWBrilliancediscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMDiscountsforBMWBrilliancewidenedMoMinAug2023toanall-timehighlevelagainFigure8asBMWannouncedsimilaradditionalrebatesfordealersin3Q23comparedwith2Q23AlthoughtheOEMreviseddownNEVmarketsharetargetinChinafor2H23discountsforthei3andiX3EVcontinuedtowideninAugThe1-SeriesandX2nowhavethelargestdiscountsamongallBMWmodelsastheirproductionisscheduledtobephasedoutgraduallyBasedonourchannelchecksBMWdealersnew-cargrossmarginin3Q23couldbeworsethanthatin2Q23excludingthe1H23subsidiesannouncedon1Jun2023WeareoftheviewthatBMWdealersgrossmarginin2H23EPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE625Sep2023couldlargelydependontheOEMsyear-endsubsidiesaswebelieveitssales-volumecutcouldbeoflittlehelpin2H23EDiscountsforBeijingBenzremainedlargelystableMoMinAugFigure7aswideneddiscountsfortheEQEEVEQESUVEVandE-ClassPHEVwerelargelyoffsetbythenarroweddiscountsoftheE-ClassandGLBPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE725Sep2023Figure9Chinapassenger-vehiclewholesalevolumebyOEMbrandTotalNEVYTDAugYTDAug2023YoYMoMYTDYoYMoMYTDYoY2023YoYChineseOEMs1302063251748616276207650267291544050823366Geely15262624510598480614647631270161246539384GreatWallMotor970213354160666542262661195-91148231724Changan132775933-261039856229369301214012357731188SAIC-GM-Wuling91124-22084515566-30636038-31443181275-476SAIC75602-1045355767340275668996214292734BYD274086575501783352821272606567441781872828GACMotor826144508256005844846871735-133100311027Chery16175621113699932942910579-62419864393-611Dongfeng24403-300294169506-4218002-45626846489-504FAW486703472252870622946803-13235848024917BAIC141845194879477070886771304921518681124NIO19329810-559435231919329810-5594352319LiAuto349146638232081651761349146638232081651761Xpeng1398846027166431-2631398846027166431-263Neta12103-24420684559-9312103-24420684559-93LeapMotor14190133-1073027-4614190133-1073027-46JinkangSeres3222-679-23830699-1813222-679-23830699-181GermanBrands383406-45842765725-193647715659241996260VW192265-1111421327699-11116986-197-6695243-257Audi56517-37734016301431641185-76191522110BMW613623706456448759599172978258678878Mercedes-Benz583704070429467612613-519-2824140-89Jetta10777-36-14010569863-NANA-NAJapaneseBrands305067-172732264022-20696351879107046007915Honda98652-18151706200-265399045114818109217Toyota145222-101391096555-98552795084229256862147Nissan52858-322164403449-29896NA321883NAMazda793371460744967-334221444-241160-396Mitsubishi--1000NA8943-573--1000NA169-742AmericanBrands199034-13314814438998392712120242672370554Buick52420-223144363114-1796971501-22739240551Chevrolet20580-31274149990-166416-410-170475757Cadillac15000-339-261111155-73650324000300223440370Ford22160-63367154180955165185091152-497Lincoln4715-473-37440477-164--1000-10004-991Tesla84159933096249835638415993309624983563KoreanBrands36696-1529424724663116-4807923129-873Hyundai20177-22661015103447--1000NA--1000Kia16519476439621289116-4347923129-822Others30146-28222193200-1144513-598-38658139127PSA7826-11561053554-261185-8214573953-347Volvo13435-150359452102935-334-967949460Jaguar184722716414651133-NANA-NALandRover2256-326-8319266-43112-668723843-483Total225641264841553036863793720254755069464382SourceCPCACMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE825Sep2023Figure10Chinapassenger-vehiclemonthlyretailsalesvolumebyOEMbrandTotalNEVYTDAugYTDAug2023YoYMoMYTDYoYMoMYTDYoY2023YoYChineseOEMsGeely112849132707508408729335447-10167211587Zeekr10037124-906200896610037124-9062008966GreatWall6159447-21450420-6619077181271105740393Changan1202241192782160920237098622-03196172887SAICMotor22648-28234184571-2948839-739755994-35GACTrumpchi3010912956220104140195966552-286704332538GACAion50982125940428610312215098212594042861031221BYD223578429571524507727223578432571524364764SAIC-GM-Wuling58244-10351424843-19936253-1243247939-153BAICMagna1013-31-21487582641013-31-2148758264Voyah278314044913628275278314044913628275NIO188137800394097338188137800394097338Lixiang338926214092088631727338926214092088631727Xpeng1392246030865695-2701392246030865695-270Neta11217-4630569365-15511217-4630569365-155Leapmotor127332267664957-37127332267664957-37HumanHorizons11971978189140491531197197818914049153JinkangSeres3628-529-19532598423628-529-1953259842ForeignOEMsSAICVW107880-86115723079-5112404219-1857778-31FAWVW156085-92-451149884358320-22211255137-71BeijingBenz563004960406622603414-03-1727167151BMWBrilliance601187483449185668095116224661236944FAWToyota68605-15569486781-4836184798365183552691GACToyota77841-12363568013-10789-798-8745616148DongfengHonda61402-59313347389-2471630-340-12810906-203GACHonda44881-35624360109-245165215813957998105DongfengNissan58589-34085430858-2554754237600036912008631000GACMitsubishi1824-193-21313057-4221-982-50036-908SAICGM78178-21676555296-1354475166-23834171340ChanganFord13030-1066985774-207374-16717501874-622TeslaChina6439780797639180561464397807976391805614VolvoAsiaPacific13329-1653790164-111056-115-758531250CheryJLR4158-106-37338906491-165461242-132BeijingHyundai18453-267-20151060-382-9600019-940YuedaKia6431-155-5851825-2150-1000DIV079-850Totalexclimports1857470257812780280386769444111154205147395ImportsbyBrandLexus18373-33148104973-15910022232102865321653BMW7897-223-0367292-9980714839346212198Mercedes-Benz12004-23168103717-70278-435-042779-326Porsche5040-458-5854417-120499-647-868731109Audi5461284-544044430335129-417236-272TotalImports63532-15251489006-54383227351328586493Total1921002187713269286346807764101174233733396SourceCATARCCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE925Sep2023NEVSegmentWeraiseourNEVretailandwholesalevolumeagainInAug2023retailsalesvolumeofpassengerNEVsrose42YoYand12MoMtoabout680000units1higherthanourpriorforecastNEVsmarketshareclimbedto354inAug2023from342inJul2023onaretailbasisinlinewithourpriorexpectationThetrailing12-monthNEVmarketsharerosefor38monthsinarowto309asofAug2023ThecumulativeNEVretailsalesvolumerose40YoYto42mnunitsinthefirsteightmonthsof2023WenotedthatNEVmarketshareinChinaislikelytorisesequentiallyeverymonthfromMay2023whichhasproventoberightWebelievesuchtrendcouldcontinueuntiltheyear-endThereforeweraiseourChinas2023NEVretailsalesvolumeforecasttoabout73mnunitsfromprior71mnunitsAccordinglywereviseupChinas2023NEVwholesalevolumeslightlyfrom85mnunitsto86mnunitsIndividualcustomersaccountedforabout76oftotalNEVretailsalesinAug2023Suchratiohitarecordhighof83inJan2023aspurchasesofmoreprice-sensitiveride-hailingcarswerepulledaheadofthesubsidyphase-outWeexpectsuchratiotobestablenowFigure11ProportionofNEVssoldtoindividualcustomersvsthatofICEvehiclesinChinaSourceCATARCCMBIGMWholesalevolumeofpassengerNEVsrose27YoYand8MoMtoabout806000unitsinAug2023withamarketshareof355NEVwholesalevolumehitarecordhighlastmonthamidaninventoryincreaseofabout48000unitswhichwaslargelyinlineourpriorforecastof08mnunitsNEVinventoriesatdealershaveincreasedbyabout03mnunitsinthefirsteightmonthsof2023WeestimatethecurrentnationwideNEVinventoryleveltobeabout19monthsbasedonourNEVsalesforecastforthenextfewmonthsInfactthefigurecouldbeevenhigherforindividualNEVmakersbecauseabout20oftotalNEVssoldin1H23werethroughdirect-salesmodelexcludingagencymodelwhichissupposedtohaveminimalinventoriesNEVexportsrose13YoYandfell11MoMtoabout81000unitsinAug2023lowerthanourpriorexpectationThatwasmainlybecauseTeslasexportsfelltoonly19000unitsinAugpartlyduetotheproductionswitchfortheredesignedModel3initsShanghaiGigafactoryBYDsexportsroseto25000unitsinAugsurpassingTeslatobecomethelargestNEVexporterinChinaThecumulativeNEVexportsrose116YoYtoabout062mnunitsinthefirsteightmonthsof2023Teslaaccountedfor38ofChinastotalNEVexportsinthefirsteightmonthsof2023vs48in2022followedbyBYD19vsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1025Sep202310in2022andMG15vs11in2022Ourfull-yearforecastof099mnunitsassumesmoreChinesebrandstostartorincreaseNEVexportsin2H23butamoderatedeclineforTeslain4Q23NewNEVmodelsareoneoftheimportantdriversforsequentiallyrisingNEVmarketshareBasedonthedatawecompiledtherewereninebrand-newNEVmodelslaunchedinAug2023includingtheDenzaN8BMWiX1EVNetaAyaEVJishiStone01EREVDongfengMengshi917DongfengAeolusHaohanPHEVBaojunYunduoEVKiaEV6EVandYuanhangY6EVWeexpectatleast12newredesignedNEVmodelstobedeliveredinSep2023includingBYDSealPHEVBYDYangwangU8EVNIOEC6EVGeelyGalaxyL6PHEVLynkCo08PHEVLivan7EVChanganQiyuanA07EVEREVGreatWallTank400PHEVLeapC01EREVCheryeQ7EVArcfoxKoalaEVJACQXPHEVWulingZhengchengEVWeprojectedabout110newNEVmodelsormodelswithNEVpowertrainavailabletobelaunchedin2023inouroutlookreportpublishedon7Dec2022About48newNEVmodelswererolledoutinthefirsteightmonthsof2023WeexpectOEMsnewmodellaunchestobeacceleratedin4Q23althoughthetotalnumberofnewNEVmodelsin2023maybelowerthanwehadexpectedNEVbycity-tierTier-1citiesunderperformedinAugNEVmarketshareonatrailing12-monthbasisroseto42207pptMoM32409pptMoM28211pptsMoMand23009pptMoMintier-1tier-2tier-3andtier-4andbelowcitiesasofAug2023respectivelyOnaMoMbasisNEVretailsalesvolumeintier-1citiesrose8inAug2023continuingtounderperformothercitytierspartlyduetopreviouspre-buyingeffectbeforethelocalsubsidyphase-outOn7Sep2023Shanghaigovernmentannouncedasix-monthextensionoflocalsubsidiesforreplacingoldcarswithNEVsuntil31Dec2023whichmayboostShanghaisNEVsalesin4Q23NEVretailsalesvolumeintier-2tier-3andtier-4andbelowcitiesrose10-15MoMinAugOnaYoYbasisNEVretailsalesvolumeintier-1citiesonlyrose8inAug2023amidhighcomparisonbaseNEVretailsalesvolumeintier-2andbelowcitiesrose49YoYinAug2023ThatwasinlinewithourpriorargumentthatNEVretailsalesgrowthinlower-tiercitiescouldoutpacethatintier-1citiesin2H23TheTeslaModelYretainedthebest-sellingNEVmodelwithamarketshareof9intier-1and-2citiescombinedinthefirsteightmonthsof2023ThesalesvolumeoftheWulingHongguangMiniEVstillledinthetier-3andbelowcitieswithmarketsharedecliningto7inthefirsteightmonthsof2023vs15in2022Themarketshareformini-sizeBEVshasbeenfallingasweexpectedMiniBEVsaccountedfor14oftotalBEVretailsalesvolumenationwideinthefirsteightmonthsof2023downfrom26in2022Figure12ChinaNEVmarketsharebycitytiertrailing12-monthbasisMarketShareFeb2023Mar2023Apr2023May2023Jun2023Jul2023Aug2023Tier1397401403406409415422Tier2288291294299306315324Tier3244245247253261271282Tier4andbelow198200203208213221230Nationwide273276279284291299309SourceCATARCCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1125Sep2023NEVbycitytypeShanghaitopsinvolumeShenzheninmarketshareWedividecitiesinChinaintothreetypesbasedonwhethertherearerestrictionsforICEvehicleregistrationordrivingInthefirsteightmonthsof2023about21ofNEVretailsalesvolumecamefromthesevenregionswithnewICEvehicleregistrationlimitsBeijingShanghaiShenzhenGuangzhouTianjinHangzhouandHainanprovincedownfrom24in2022partlyduetoShanghaiscancellationofgreenlicenseforPHEVsfrom2023Shanghaiaccountedfor49ofnationwideNEVretailsalesinthefirsteightmonthsof2023downfrom64in2022DespitethatChinasPHEVretailsalesvolumeYoYgrowthstilloutpacedBEVYTDwhichunderscoredourpreviousargumentthatShanghaisgreenlicensecancellationforPHEVsshouldhavelimiteddentonPHEVsAbout16ofNEVretailsalesvolumewasfromcitieswithdrivingrestrictionsincluding24citieslikeBaodingChongqingWuhanXianetcinthefirsteightmonthsof2023upfrom14in2022Theremaining63ofNEVretailsalesvolumewascontributedbycitieswithoutlicenseordrivingrestrictionsinthefirsteightmonthsof2023risingby1pptfromthatof2022Figure13NEVmarketsharebycitytypeSourceCATARCCMBIGMFigure14NEVretailsalesvolumeYoYgrowthcontributionbycitytypein8M23SourceCATARCCMBIGMChinastotalNEVretailsalesvolumeincreasedbyabout12mnunitsYoYinthefirsteightmonthsof2023About62oftheincrementwasfromcitieswithoutlicenseordrivingPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1225Sep2023restrictionsDespitethecancellationofgreenlicenseforPHEVsNEVretailsalesvolumeinShanghairosebyabout64000unitsor45YoYinthefirsteightmonthsof2023duetolowcomparisonbaseThereforeShanghairetainedtheNEVretailsalescrownamongallcitiesinChinainthefirsteightmonthsof2023PHEVsonlyaccountedfor7oftotalNEVretailsalesvolumeinShanghaiinthefirsteightmonthsof2023downfrom37in2022Figure15NEVretailsalesvolumeintop20citieswithcorrespondingNEVmarketsharein8M23SourceCATARCCMBIGMAmongthetop20citiesintermsofNEVretailsalesvolumeShenzhenhadthelargestNEVmarketshareof51inthefirsteightmonthsof2023followedbyHangzhouandWenzhouinZhejiangProvinceShanghairankedthe4thplacewith45ofretailsalesvolumefromNEVsinthefirsteightmonthsof2023BeijingsNEVmarketshareroseto31inthefirsteightmonthsof2023justaheadofDongguanandChangshatobethe3rdlowestamongthese20citiesandstillbelowthenationalaverage32duetoitscapsonnewNEVregistrationseveryyearNEVbymodelBYDandTeslacontributed67oftheincrementYTDBYDtookuphalfofthetop10best-sellingNEVmodelsinthefirsteightmonthsof2023withtheDolphinEVQinPlusPHEVYuanPlusEVSongPlusPHEVandSongProPHEVInfactthecombinedretailsalesvolumeofBYDsSongPlusandSongProPHEVsexceededtheTeslaModelYinthefirsteightmonthsof2023byabout2000unitsIncludingexportstheModelYstilltoppedtheNEVsalesvolumeYTDaheadofthecombinedwholesalevolumeoftheBYDSongSeriesTheWulingHongguangMiniEVfelltothe6thplaceinthefirsteightmonthsof2023fromtheNo1in2020-22ExcludingthosediscontinuedmodelssuchastheLiONEEREVandQinProEVthreemini-sizeBEVstheWulingHongguangMiniEVCheryeQ1andChanganBenbenE-StarpostedthelargestsalesvolumeYoYdeclineinthefirsteightmonthsof2023Itappearstousthatthelow-endBEVmarketalsoshowsconsumptionupgradeassmall-sizeandcompactBEVsaregainingmarketsharefrommini-sizeBEVsTheBYDYuanBEVsincludingtheYuanPlusandYuanProcombinedpostedYoYunitgrowthofabout65000unitsinthefirsteightmonthsof2023TheBYDDolphinEVandSeagullEValsopostedYoYgrowthofabout98000unitsand80000unitsYTDrespectivelyAlthoughnosinglemodelhadasignificantcontributiontothenationwideNEVretailsalesvolumeYTDgrowthbasedonthechartbelowBYDincludingDenzacontributed54ofPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1325Sep2023ChinasNEVretailsalesvolumegrowthintheeightmonthsof2023whileTeslacontributedabout13Figure16NEVretailsalesvolumegrowthcontributionbymodelin8M23SourceCATARCCMBIGMBEVbrandsBMWwaskickedoutfromthetop10Inthefirsteightmonthsof2023totalBEVretailsalesvolumerose24YoYtoabout29mnunitsBEVsmarketshareintheNEVsegmentdroppedto687inthefirsteightmonthsof2023from772in2022BYDandTeslasmarketshareincreasedto260and136intheBEVsegmentinthefirsteightmonthsof2023from20and11in2022respectivelyTeslasdeliveriesroseto65000unitsinAugfrom33000unitsinJuldespiteitsproductionupgradeforthefaceliftedModel3intheShanghaiGigafactoryTeslaunveiledthefaceliftedModel3on1Sep2023withanunexpectedpricehikeofRMB28000GACAionretainedthe3rdplaceinAug2023withmonthlydeliveriesover50000unitsforthefirsttimelastmonthThesetop3brandsallgainedmarketshareinthefirsteightmonthsof2023comparedwithlastyearWulingretainedthe4thplaceinAug2023vsNo3in2022andCheryretainedthe10thplacelastmonthvsNo6in2022Bothbrandsweredentedbytheshrinkingmini-BEVsegmentandagingmodelsIncontrastGeelyandChangansecuredthe5thand6thplacesrespectivelythankstosalesgrowthfromthePandaminiEVandLuminEVVWreturnedtothetop10listinJul2023andretainedNo8lastmonthThesalesliftsinceJul2023wasmainlydrivenbyapricecutofRMB37000fortheID3EVVWwastheonlyforeignbrandinthetop10BEVlistinthefirsteightmonthsof2023alsoitsBEVretailsalesvolumeinChinastillfell24YoYYTDXpengreplacedBMWtosecureNo9positioninthefirsteightmonthsof2023asBMWslippedtoNo12WeareoftheviewthatBMWsnewiX1EVmaynotbeenoughtohelpitreturnthetop10listasthecompetitionbecomesmoreandmoreintensifyingComparedwiththetop10listof2022GeelyandNIOwerethenewjoinersinthefirsteightmonthsof2023whileDongfengandNetawerekickedoutPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1425Sep2023Figure17Top10BEVbrandsretailsalesvolumeinChinaAugYTDMarketShareUnitsYoYYTDYTDYoY2023inBEVSegmentTotalBEV48502131729047992431000BYD124576546754505670260Tesla65029825394724626136GACAion503881232284562120998Wuling31841-90234122-15081GeelyinclGeometryGalaxy1630734010587259936Changan15462-256983345434NIO188137809409733832VW15710-2268916-24424Xpeng1392246065695-27023Chery9957-27562200-48821SourceCATARCCMBIGMPHEVbrandsChanganandGeelyarecatchingupInthefirsteightmonthsof2023totalPHEVEREVincludedretailsalesvolumerose95YoYtoabout13mnunitsPHEVsmarketshareintheNEVsegmentincreasedto313inthefirsteightmonthsof2023from228in2022inlinewithourpreviousforecastthatPHEVssalesvolumegrowthwouldoutpaceBEVsin2023BYDsmarketshareinthePHEVsegmentdroppedto53inthefirsteightmonthsof2023from61in2022IncludingDenzathecombinedYTDmarketshareof58wasstilllowerthan61reflectingtheheightenedcompetitionLixiangsmarketshareinthePHEVsegmentroseto158inthefirsteightmonthsof2023from104in2022LiAutosfull-yearsalesvolumemaybeatourpriorforecastof360000unitsthisyearChanganDeepalretainedthe4thpositioninthePHEVsegmentinAugwiththehighestYTDYoYgrowthrateamongthetop10brandsTheretailsalesvolumeoftheDeepalS7EREVrosetoabout8600unitsinAug2023ChanganrankedNo5andDeepalscombinedmarketshareroseto66inthefirsteightmonthsof2023GeelysurpassedHavaltogainthe6thplacelastmonthdrivenbytheGalaxyL7PHEVinlinewithourargumentinthereportpublishedinAugHavalfelltothe7thpositionintermsofPHEVretailsalesvolumeinthefirsteightmonthsof2023asretailsalesvolumeoftheXiaolongMaxPHEVdroppedtoonly3000unitsinAugTheupcomingHavalMenglongPHEVcouldbeanewdriverforHavalinthefollowingmonthsThemarketshareforHavalandWeycombinedclimbedto37YTDhigherthanGeelys25Aitoretainedthe9thplaceinAug2023comparedwiththe3rdpositionlastyearWeyretainedtheNo10spotinthefirsteightmonthsof2023despitetheretailsalesvolumeoftheLanshanPHEVcontinuedtofalltoabout2400unitslastmonthSimilartotheBEVsegmentonlyoneforeignbrandVWisstillinthetop10listvsfourlastyearVWMercedes-BenzNissanandBMWAsmoreEREVmodelsonsalefrombrandslikeNetaandLeapChinesebrandscouldtakeallthespotsamongthetop10listInfactChinesebrandscombinedmarketshareinthePHEVsegmentroseto94inthefirsteightmonthsof2023from89in2022WeexpectsuchtrendtocontinuebasedonthemodelpipelinePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1525Sep2023Figure18Top10PHEVEREVincludedbrandsretailsalesvolumeinChinaAugYTDMarketShareinUnitsYoYYTDYTDYoY2023PHEVSegmentTotalPHEV19569974213237809481000BYD88019166696569693526Lixiang3389262142088631727158Denza8760335923667247074650Deepal12336295355014711401638Changan7909563537550284728GeelyinclGeometryGalaxy8710249132621294825Haval5132NA29165NA22VW2531-318250878719Aito2563-66623405-24218Wey2954306919725327915SourceCATARCCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1625Sep2023OtherIndustryIndicatorstoWatchPVbycitytierTier-4andbelowcitiesoutperformedinAugTotalPVretailsalesvolumerose2YoYand8MoMto192mnunitsinAug2023largelyinlinewithourpriorforecastof19mnunitsCumulativePVretailsalesvolumeincreased34YoYinthefirsteightmonthsof2023InAug2023tier-1citiesunderperformedtier-2andbelowcitiesintermsofYoYgrowthamidthehighYoYcomparisonbaseTier-4andbelowcitiesoutperformedtier-3andabovecitiesforthefirsttimethisyearInthefirsteightmonthsof2023tier-1citiesstilloutperformedallothercitytiersintermsofYTDYoYgrowthandtier-4andbelowcitiesweretheworstperformerFigure19ChinaautoretailsalesgrowthbycitytierRetailSalesFebMarAprMayJunJulAugYTDYoYGrowth2023202320232023202320232023Tier12821779761024153-67-105105Tier217413063528220273554Tier3-0298529333-12042714Tier4andbelow2964404221-18-4944-26Nationwide11211559533121-041834SourceCATARCCMBIGMThelowbaseeffectresultedfromCOVIDlastyearstilldominatedthecity-levelretailsalesvolumeYoYgrowthinthefirsteightmonthsof2023ShanghaiBeijingZhengzhouXianandChengdupostedthelargestYoYretailsalesvolumegrowthinthefirsteightmonthsof2023ThefourcitiesthatshowedlargestYoYdeclinesareallfromGuangdongProvinceFigure20PVretailsalesvolumeYoYgrowthcontributionbycityin8M23SourceCATARCCMBIGMChinese-brandtrailing12-monthmarketshareroseto47CumulativeretailsalesvolumeforChinesebrandsrose16YoYinthefirsteightmonthsof2023outpacingtheoverallindustryby12pptsthankstohigherNEVpenetrationinChinaChinese-brandNEVretailsalesvolumerose38YoYinthefirsteightmonthsof2023underperformingtheoverallNEVsegmentby2pptsExcludingNEVsretailsalesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1725Sep2023volumeofChinese-brandICEvehiclesfell4YoYinthefirsteightmonthsof2023strongerthantheoverallICEsegmentby4pptsThereforewecanseefromthechartbelowthatChinesebrandstrailing12-monthmarketshareintheICEsegmentstartedtorisesinceApr2023asChinesebrandsdominanceintheNEVsegmentprobablygivesconsumersmoreconfidenceonitsICEmodelsItbecamemoreapparentinJul-Aug2023astheICEretailsalesvolumeforChinesebrandsonlyfell2YoYlastmonthsignificantlybetterthan12YoYdeclinefortheoverallICEsegmentUSbrandsachievedmarketsharegainintheNEVsegmentaidedbyTeslawhileGermanbrandsmarketshareroseintheICEsegmentinthefirsteightmonthsof2023ChinesebrandslargelygrabbedmarketsharefromJapanesebrandsasJapanesebrandspostedthelargestretailsalesvolumedeclineamongallthebrandsinthefirsteightmonthsof2023-18YoYFigure21Chinesebrandsmarketsharetrailing12-monthbasisSourceCATARCCMBIGMTraditionalluxuryunderperformedYTDTheretailsalesvolumeoftraditionalluxurybrandsfell6YoYandrose4MoMtoabout027mnunitsinAug2023underperformingtheoverallindustryforafourthconsecutivemonthafteroutperformingforeightmonthsinarowThecumulativeretailsalesvolumeoftraditionalluxurybrandsrose2YoYto2mnunitsinthefirsteightmonthsof2023ItsYTDretailsalesvolumegrowthstartedtolagbehindtheoverallindustryinAugby1pptinlinewithourpriorexpectationasmajorluxurybrandshavecuttheirfull-yeartargetsThemarketshareoftraditionalluxurybrandsonatrailing12-monthbasisfellabitMoMto148asofAug2023Figure22Chinatraditionalluxuryautomarketsharebycitytiertrailing12-monthbasisMarketShareFeb2023Mar2023Apr2023May2023Jun2023Jul2023Aug2023Tier1208210209210208206205Tier2184184184183182180179Tier3110111112111111111110Tier4andbelow74747575757575Nationwide150151151151150149148SourceCATARCCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1825Sep2023Mercedes-BenzretainedtheNo1placeamongthetraditionalluxurybrandsinChinainthefirsteightmonthsof2023wideningtheYTDsalesgapwithBMWtoabout12000unitsTheGermanBigThreeMercedes-BenzBMWAudiaccountedformarketshareof73YTDupfrom72in2022TheGermanBigThreeallachievedpositiveYoYgrowth3-4inthefirsteightmonthsof2023whichwashigherthanourpriorexpectationatacostofhigherdiscountsCadillacretainedthe4thplacewhileVolvoandLexusswitchedtheirplacesinAugasLexussretailsalesvolumerose15MoMtoover18000unitslastmonthamidwiderdiscountsfortheLexusESLexusstillpostedthelargestYTDYoYdeclineamongthetop10WenoteinourreportpublishedinJul2023thatPorschehaddecidedtocutitsfull-yearsalestargetinChinabyabout10to83000unitsinordertomaintainitsbrandpropositionThatprobablyexplainswhyitsretailsalesvolumeplunged46YoYand6MoMtoabout5000unitsinAugafterits22MoMdeclineinJulWebelieveitstightenedsupplycouldbenefitdealersprofitabilityofnew-carsalesSmartretainedthe10thplaceinthefirsteightmonthsof2023despitetheretailsalesvolumeofboththeSmart1EVand3EVdroppedbelow2000unitsinAugFigure23Top10traditionalluxuryautobrandsretailsalesvolumeinChinaAugYTDMarketShareinUnitsYoYYTDYTDYoY2023LuxurySegmentTotalLuxury273322-582038656251000Mercedes-Benz70777-2252805028259BMW680152951647741253Audi59969-7144249635217Cadillac14247-284114571-0756Lexus18373-33104973-15951Volvo15101-1541037360051Porsche5040-45854417-12027LandRover6547485434123027Lincoln6944-16246495-13523Smart29561009313081629818415SourceCATARCCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1925Sep2023AppendixNEVLeadingIndicatorsTheleadingindicatorsbelowincludingnumberofleadscustomerflowsandnewordersgeneratedforTeslaNIOLixiangXpengBYDandAionarebasedondatafromasamplesizeof96stores15-18storesforeachbrandin15majorcitiesinChinaNewordersperstoreforthesesixNEVbrandshavebeenrisingMoMsinceApr2023whichisconsistentwithourpriorargumentthatNEVmarketshareinChinacouldrisesequentiallyfortheremainderoftheyearNEVsalesvolumeforleadingplayersislikelytobestrongin4Q23inourviewNotethatthefollowingdatareflectssamestoremetricsandthetotalnewordersandothermetricswouldrisemorethanthesefiguresasmostplayershavereacceleratedtheirstoreexpansionFigure24NumberofleadsperstoreonaverageforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMFigure25ConversionratiofromleadstostorevisitforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE20