研究报告全文：MN22Sep2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateENNEnergy2688HKShareawardschemeandshareholdingincreaseplanbolsterconfidenceamidconservativeoutlookTargetPriceHK9670ENNremainsconservativeabouttherecoveryofindustrialgassalesin2H23PreviousTPHK12360and2023WhileitspowerplantgassalesareunlikelytorecoverandfacecustomerstructureadjustmentthereispotentialforpartialgassalesrecoveryUpDownside517amongotherindustrialgasusersWebelievethedollarmarginisexpectedtoCurrentPriceHK6375reachthefull-yeartargetRecentlyENNhasannouncedashareawardschemeforemployeesandashareholdingincreaseplanbycontrollingshareholderMrChinaEnergyWangshowingconfidenceintheCompanysdevelopmentWetrimmedTPtoHK967andmaintainedBUYduetoanoptimisticdollarmarginandIEbusinessexpansionMeganXiaCESGA85237610836meganxiacmbicomhkENNexpectedindustrialgassalesrecoverytoremainconservativeIn1H23ENNreportedanindustrialgassaleslossof1bncbmwith04bncbmattributedtopeak-shavingpowerplantsinthecoastalzoneandtheremainingStockData06bncbmfromindustrialpapermillsfactoriesetcTheCompanyguidedtheMktCapHKmn721152recoveryofgassalesfromthepowerplantsisunlikelyinshorttomid-termAvg3mthstoHKmn28731butthereispotentialforpartialgassalesrecoveryamongotherindustrialgas52wHighLowHK124295385usersin2H23andbeyondwiththeremaining06bncbmTheoverallguidanceTotalIssuedSharesmn1131for2023remainsconservativeENNisproactivelyaddressingthesituationbySourceFactSetimplementingactivegassalesmanagementmeasuresinternallyandofferingpriceincentivestoattractmoreindustrialgasusersShareholdingStructureENNsdollarmarginisexpectedtoreachthefull-yeartargetofXinnengHongKongEnergy334InvestmentRMB051cbmENNsdollarmarginimprovedtoRMB052cbmin1H23TheCapitalGroup128drivenbylowerupstreamgascostsandactivegaspricepass-throughSourceHKEximplementationWithimprovedupstreamsupplyandongoinggaspricepass-throughENNwillbewell-positionedtonavigatepotentialupstreamSharePerformancecostfluctuationinwinterandisexpectedtoreachitstargetdollarmarginofAbsoluteRelativeRMB051cbm1-mth-203-205ENNannouncesshareawardschemeandshareholdingincreaseplan3-mth-364-307demonstratingconfidenceENNhasannouncedashareawardscheme6-mth-381-325valuedatuptoUS100mnTheschemeaimstorecognizeemployeeSourceFactSetcontributionsfosteringanemployeeownershipmindsetAdditionallythe12-mthPricePerformanceCompanyhasannouncedashareholdingincreaseplanbycontrollingshareholderMrWanghighlightingconfidenceinENNsoperationandmanagementsdedicationtoachievingstrongbusinessresultsinthefutureTrimmedTPtoHK967maintainBUYBasedonourcommunicationwiththecompanyindustrialgassalesrecoveryremainedunfavourableduetoclientsstructureadjustmentandweakdemandandthustheretailedgassalesguidanceremainsconservativefor2H23and2023AsaresultourClgassalesgrowthforecastsfor2023E2024E2025Earerevisedto-870331YoYRevenueandnetprofitforecastsareadjustedaccordinglyInadditionconsideringuncertaintiesingassalesrecoveryexpectedretailgassalesgrowthisrevisedfrom10YoYto5YoY2024-SourceFactSet26Eand8YoYto4YoY2027-30EleadingtoaSOTPDCFTPofHK967WestayoptimisticonENNsdollarmarginimprovementandIEbusinessexpansionMaintainBUYEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn93113110051102561110589126171YoYgrowth3001826878141NetprofitRMBmn7755058650642027861886710YoYgrowth23524495225103EPSReportedRMB688520605742826ConsensusEPSRMBna520674743806PEx166187988072PBx3628151413ROE234157156172172SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk22Sep2023Figure1RevisiontableSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2DCFtraditionalbusinessvaluationSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE222Sep2023Figure3DCFtraditionalbusinessvaluationSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure4PEBandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5PBBandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure6PeerstableClosingMktcapEPS23-25EPERPBRPriceCompanyTickerHKHKmn23E24E25ECAGR23E24E25E23E24E25EENNENERGY2688HK6375721152467474280492883803741152134119TIANLUNGASHOL1600HK356349551066075088156505443378060049044CHINAGASHOLDIN384HK764415277811410912234670702626062066063CHINARESGAS1193HK2250520652925026829586901840764120109101TOWNGASSMARTEN1083HK328110027604505105057727650651048046044KUNLUNENERGY135HK6725818715075083091101840754694084078072Average757064090807SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE322Sep2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue7161793113110051102561110589126171Costofgoodssold5928579057942958741093395106204Grossprofit123321405615756151511719419968Operatingexpenses418148475441533359727444Sellingexpense95111221180112813271640Adminexpense323037254261420546455804Operatingprofit165131890321197204842316627412Otherincome9521077953113212091264Othergainslosses2829841569400550700ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV7826992525676764EBITDA122481422812319134611573117311Depreciation208122592595288631743459EBIT10167119699724105741255713851Interestincome609576672700750800Pre-taxprofit955811393905298741180713051Incometax222723982388256729523263Aftertaxprofit733189956664730788559789Minorityinterest105312407998879931117Discontinuedoperations627877555865642078628671Netprofit627877555865642078628671BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets235682755827133202302136126900Cashequivalents8630868480569988543683Restrictedcash116363458230240249Accountreceivables90531056810675110361190113581Inventories128515081708184619912271Prepayment000000FinancialassetsatFVTPL40617371488148814881488Othercurrentassets334639234110420245315170Contractassets732775638430357458Non-currentassets664757243075218858619196997932PPE418614679350380591886421468905Right-of-useassets212921192323230523872463Deferredincometax137012121557194921012397InvestmentinJVsassos776087188477102851116812116Intangibles444643114549397337853585Goodwill251125202520276028803000FinancialassetsatFVTPL505253524327432743274327Othernon-currentassets134614051085107511061138Totalassets9004399988102351106091113329124832Currentliabilities332334157936082376123906143504Short-termborrowings459061506341756178938225Accountpayables8302101728066115431244914202Taxpayable9719091517109912371381Othercurrentliabilities503993654657418644744950Leaseliabilities897591919191Contractliabilities142421490815410131321291614655Non-currentliabilities206381625920714182901906520502Long-termborrowings321229932825244024002723Convertiblebonds000000Obligationsunderfinanceleases000000Deferredincome256227852974307733183785Othernon-currentliabilities148641048114915127741334813994Totalliabilities538715783856796559025812664005Sharecapital117117117118118118Otherreserves304443566038917431964781352989Totalshareholdersequity305613577739034433134793053106Minorityinterest561163736521687672737720Totalequityandliabilities9004399988102351106091113329124832PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE422Sep2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation955811393905298741180713051Depreciationamortization208122592595288631743459Taxpaid155420791936327527252947Changeinworkingcapital20818715395503591636Others181312851065885998Netcashfromoperations9696117566888111021101314202InvestingCapitalexpenditure390649323587880850264691Others289228124732449841144463Netcashfrominvesting6798774483191330691409154FinancingDividendpaid168822902004217832813531Netborrowings38835995383830830830Others306117772460178728473048Netcashfromfinancing26731822784395720172218NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear73737598134334159998854Others7148176322707732111421976Cashattheendoftheyear2255835927431611442830GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue203001826878141Grossprofit9514012138135161Operatingprofit7614512134131183EBITDA7916213493169100EBIT6317718887187103Netprofit10723524495225103PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin172151143148155158Operatingmargin231203193200209217EBITDAmargin171153112131142137ReturnonequityROE223234157156172172GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox070708050506Receivableturnoverdays106109112111107naInventoryturnoverdays106109112111107naPayableturnoverdays686720634611672naVALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE144166187988072PB303628151413SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE522Sep2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6