研究报告全文：MN21Sep2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateCRGas1193HKSoundoperatingdatainAugwithsteadygrowthoutlookTargetPriceHK3548CRGsoperatingperformanceshowedbetterrecoverywithretailedresidentialindustrialcommercialgassalesupby10131017YoYinPreviousTPHK3548AugInJan-Aug2023theretailedgassalesgrowthrecorded71YoYForUpDownside577dollarmarginCRGachievedRMB058cbminAugandRMB052-053cbminCurrentPriceHK2250Jan-AugWeregardCRGcanreachthetargetofgassalesgrowthof8YoYandadollarmarginofRMB05cbmAdditionallythestrategicpartnershipwithChinaEnergyCNPCwillstrengthengassupplyandthesolidcomprehensiveservicebusinessgrowthwillsupportCRGsbetterperformanceWemaintainedourassumptionandourTPofHK3548ReiterateBUYMeganXiaCESGARetailedgassalesrecordedsoundgrowthinAugexpectedCRGcan85237610836reachthefull-yeargassalestargetof8YoYForJan-Augretailgasmeganxiacmbicomhksalesroseby71YoYInparticularresidentialgassalesboostedby10YoYmaintainingsteadygrowthandindustrialcommercialgassalesrosebyover68YoYthankstothegasdemandrecoveryandlowbasein2H22InAug2023theoperatingdataperformedwellwithStockDataresidentialindustrialcommercialgassalesascendedby131017MktCapHKmn520653YoYFor2023CRGsmgmtpreviouslyguideditsretailedgassalesgrowthAvg3mthstoHKmn800willachieve8YoYWebelieveCRGwillreachthetargetas1thegas52wHighLowHK34681903salesrecoverycontinuesmonthly2bettergasdemandwithimprovedTotalIssuedSharesmn2314SourceFactSeteconomy3lowbaseof2H224thegassalesstructureoptimizesasthehigherproportionofcommercialgassalesleadingtohigherprofitShareholdingStructureCRGachievedadollarmarginofRMB052cbminJan-Aug2023withCRCompanyLtd615RMB058cbminAugForJan-Aug2023CRGrecordedadollarmarginriseJPMorganChaseCo51ofRMB009toaroundRMB052-053cbmthankstothepositiveSourceHKEximplementationofpricepass-throughmeasuresCRGsdollarmarginimprovedtoRMB058cbminAug2023andresidentialpricepass-throughSharePerformancecompletedaround60andCRGbelieveditwillachieve70for2023EvenAbsoluteRelativethoughhigherwintergaspricemayweighon4Qdollarmarginwebelieve1-mth16143-mth-178-105CRGwillslightlybeatitsdollarmargintargetofRMB05cbmbackedbyactive-208-136gaspricepass-throughmeasuresimplementationinseveralregions6-mthdeliveringthecosttotheend-usersSourceFactSetCRGsecuredlong-termgassupplythroughastrategicpartnershipwith12-mthPricePerformanceCNPCnaturalgassalesbranchInlateAugCRGenteredintoaStrategicFrameworkAgreementandMediumtoLong-TermContractwithCNPCnaturalgassalesbranchTheywillprovidemediumtolong-termandstablenaturalgasresourcesof40bncbmtoCRGwitha10-yearcontracttermThecooperationwillstrengthenCRGsgassupplyandbusinessextensionSlowerbutsteadygasconnectionandanticipatedfast-growingCSBcomprehensiveservicebusinessGiventheloosepropertypoliciesgraduallyintroducedwebelievethepaceofgasconnectionwilltendtobesteadyWemaintainedourresidentialconnectionin2023unchangedat347mnOtherwisethegasappliancesalesdeliveredfavourableresultsduringthepromotionactivitiesof915WebelieveCRGsCSBwillmaintaintherevenueSourceFactSetgrowthtargetofover18YoYMaintainTPunchangedReiterateBUYCRGistradingat9xFY23EPElowerthanits3-yearavgPE-1SDof10xPEWebelievethevaluationisattractiveWemaintainedourkeyassumptionandTPofHK3548unchangedWestayedoptimisticaboutCRGssteadygassalesgrowthimproveddollarmarginandsolidCSBdevelopmentReiterateBUYEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueHKmn78175943389591298573104413NetprofitHKmn6395147335618967225677060EPSReportedHK282209273319340ConsensusEPSHKna277303339361PEx155152867369PBx2418131211ROE12789112120116SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk21Sep2023Figure1PEBandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2PBBandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3PeerstableClosingMktcapEPS23-25EPERPBRPriceCompanyTickerHKHKmn23E24E25ECAGR23E24E25E23E24E25ECHINARESGAS1193HK2250520652925026829586901840764120109101TIANLUNGASHOL1600HK356349551066075NANA505505378060049NACHINAGASHOLDIN384HK764415277811410912234670670626062066063ENNENERGY2688HK6375721152467474280492883883741152134119TOWNGASSMARTEN1083HK328110027604505105057727727651048046044KUNLUNENERGY135HK6725818715075083091101840840694084078072Average757464090808SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE221Sep2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnRevenue5586478175943389591298573104413Costofgoodssold408375988076256772427848183578Grossprofit150271829518082186692009220834Operatingexpenses7900959410189949891709087Sellingexpense466457586303575554225221Adminexpense316738253883374137463863Others69113333Operatingprofit71288701789291711092211747Otherincome13981774771143914791566EBITDA106441314411359129341436615431Depreciation205425922598221718622019Otheramortisation65779910810398EBIT8525104758663106101240113314Interestincome449382557566582617Others9151091510673692733Pre-taxprofit8991111838616107171251013430Incometax227827442307262630653290Aftertaxprofit6713844063098091944510139Minorityinterest156120441575190122202433Netprofit515263954733619072267706BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnCurrentassets306413056528073302673150833855Cashequivalents1344275636437109231161212788Restrictedcash1225271111Accountreceivables126461570517042173271780718862Inventories100711421307132413451432Prepayment000000Othercurrentassets000000Contractassets353436283285334034333636Non-currentassets6322975571839798852093945100619PPE409334734948109518655615960671Right-of-useassets281632543188357639564349Deferredincometax345463509517532563InvestmentinJVsassos121151299217073173581784018897Intangibles281632543188357639564349Goodwill90412742540258226542811FinancialassetsatFVTPL1531652226226323262464Othernon-currentassets314768207146678365226516Totalassets93871106136112052118787125453134475Currentliabilities390234869846234479494873151328Short-termborrowings25486167696769676967696Accountpayables201932618527046285692902730913Taxpayable934969880894919973Othercurrentliabilities74562022222324Leaseliabilities99122103104107114Contractliabilities151741518610489106641095911609Non-currentliabilities7980340113277133211339513558Long-termborrowings29929610021100211002110021Deferredincome119613171566159216361733Othernon-currentliabilities648617881691170817381804Totalliabilities470025209959511612706212664885Sharecapital362744125739335424104600049829Totalshareholdersequity468685403852540575176332769589Minorityinterest105941278113206151071732719760Totalequityandliabilities93871106136112052118787125453134475PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE321Sep2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation6713844063098091944510139Depreciationamortization211826692696232419652117Changeinworkingcapital642221259240062301426Others3153421431244177051547Netcashfromoperations503671159537140041093512136InvestingCapitalexpenditure561359786258636365396927Netcashfrominvesting561359786258636365396927FinancingDividendpaid207623472382311436363877Others383020224271156Netcashfromfinancing211423774404315637074033NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear1323713442756364381092311612Others2065879112544856891176Cashattheendoftheyear1344275636438109231161212788GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenuena399207172859Grossprofitna21712327637Operatingprofitna2219316219176EBITDAna23513613911174EBITna22917322516974Netprofitna24126030816766PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin269234192195204200Operatingmargin1281118496111113EBITDAmargin191168120135146148ReturnonequityROEna12789112120116GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox080606060607Receivableturnoverdays826733659659659659Inventoryturnoverdays907063636363Payableturnoverdays180515961295135013501350VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE169155152867369PEdiluted169155152867369PB242418131211SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE421Sep2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportDisclosuresDisclaimersPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5