研究报告全文：22Sep2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaPCBSectorWeakmarketin2023growthinEVAIserverMARKETPERFORMoffsetbysoftconsumerelectronicsdemandMaintainGlobalPCBmarketTheglobalPCBmarketshowedminimalgrowthin2022ChinaTechnologySectorwithamodest10YoYincreasebutitisexpectedtofaceasubstantialdeclineof41in2023Intermsofquarterlyperformanceboth1Q23and2Q23haveLilyYangPhDrecordedsteepdeclinesofmorethan20YoYsignalingaratherbleakoutlook85239163716fortheglobalPCBmarketMovingforwardweexpecttheglobalPCBmarketwilllilyyangcmbicomhkpersistentlyencountermacroeconomicchallengesduetoweakenedconsumerKevinZhangdemandandtheongoingdestockingcycleamongdownstreamindustriesin2H2385237618727Wemayseesomegradualrecoveryin2024kevinzhangcmbicomhkIndustrydemandoutlookremainsweakOverhalfofthePCBsalesarefromconsumerelectronicmarkets21frommobile17fromPCand15fromotherTheoutlookforthesemarketsisdimin20231smartphoneshipmenttoremainbelowpre-pandemiclevel2PCshipmenttofall56and3wearablesshipmentsuchasTWSlargelyaffectedbymobilemarketThesluggishdemandandexcessinventorywillweighonthesectorintheneartermStartingfrom2022thepaceofglobaleconomicrecoverybegantodeceleratesignificantlyprimarilyduetoaturbulentglobalmacroeconomicenvironmentandthetighteningmonetarypolicyunderahawkishUSFedTheglobalelectronicsindustrywasnotimmunetothesemacroeconomicchallengesexperiencinganoticeableimpactasconsumerdemandstruggledtogainmomentumTheglobaleconomiclandscaperetaineditscomplexitywithlimitedindicationsofarobustrecoveryinsightChinasPMIremainedincontractionterritoryreflectingpersistentlysubduedconsumerdemandacrossmostindustriesPerPrismarksdataChinasPCBmarketisexpectedtoexperienceyetanotherdeclineinmarketsizein2023withaYoYdeclineof38ShennanCircuit002916CHHoldratingwithTPofRMB72basedon25xrollover2024EPEWebelievethebusinesswillcontinuetobeaffectedbyindustrydowncycleandaturnaroundmaycomelaterthanpreviouslyexpectedShengyiTech600183CHHoldratingwithTPofRMB161Weexpectmodestsequentialgrowthin2H23astheCompanysmgmtmentionedtherecentoperationofCCLproductswasrunningonfullcapacityHoweverwestillthinkinvestorsshouldremaincautiousasmacroheadwindsstillpersistandcanfurtheraffectdownstreamdemandPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk22Sep2023ContentsGlobalPCBmarketreviewandoutlook3GlobalPCBMarketcontinuedtofallshortofexpectationsin2Q23followingastreakofdeclinesin20223Ongoingpressurein2H23Gradualrecoverymaycomein20245Copperpriceislikelytoremainstablefortherestof20236ChinaPCBSupplyChainOutlookContinuedweaknessin1H23andpendingrecoveryin2H237PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE222Sep2023GlobalPCBmarketreviewandoutlookGlobalPCBMarketcontinuedtofallshortofexpectationsin2Q23followingastreakofdeclinesin2022TheglobalPCBmarketwasdownsignificantlyby203YoYin2Q23following173and212YoYdeclinein4Q221Q23ThedecreasewasareflectionofbroadweaknessacrossallPCBsegmentsmainlydueto1fallingdemandforelectronicsproductsunderglobalmacroeconomicpressuresand2ongoinginventorydigestionindownstreamand3ASPerosionFigure1GlobalPCBmarketexperiencedsignificantdeclinesince4Q22USbn2523402221212119192018191716171717272816172015151523141414191516171104510022-4-2-7-205-17-21-200-40GlobalPCBmarketGlobalPCBYoYgrowthSourcePrismarkCMBIGMestimatesGlobaleconomicpressurehasledtofallingdemandforelectronicsespeciallyintheconsumerelectronicsmarketwhichaccountsforover50ofthePCBindustryIn1H23globalmobileandPCshipmentssawsubstantialdeclinesof11and22YoYrespectivelyaccordingtoIDCHoweverEVandAIservermarketsareamongthefewsectorsstillshowinggrowthOuroutlookfor2H23iscautiouswithexpecteddeclinesinhandsetandPCshipmentsThesecondlargestsegmentistelecommarketandasweexpectedearlierGlobaltelecomspendingislikelytodecreasein2023consideringunsatisfactoryrevenuegrowthandmacrochallengeslinkThecontinualdestockingmomentuminthedownstreamsectorpersistsAlthoughsomedownstreamcustomerscurrentlymaintainrelativelylowinventorylevelstheirinclinationtorestockremainsmodestSeveralmanufacturersarestillinaphaseofcarefulobservationWebelievethatthepressureinthisregardwillendureyetthereexiststhepotentialthattheApplesupercycleandthereturnofHuaweimayyieldresultsthatprovetobebetter-than-fearedASPerosionexistsacrossallproductsegmentswithespeciallysignificantpricedeclinesobservedinHDIFPCandpackagesubstratesperPrismarkwhoprojectsa15YoYdeclineinPCBsalesbutonlya48YoYdecreaseintermsofvolumeThisdiscrepancysuggestsaroughly10YoYreductioninASPPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE322Sep2023Figure2Handsetshipmentdeclinedby78YoYFigure3PCshipmentdeclinedby139YoYinin2Q232Q23mnunitsmnunits60030100605002080404001060203000400200-1020-20100-200-300-401Q184Q183Q192Q201Q214Q213Q222Q231Q184Q183Q192Q201Q214Q213Q222Q23HandsetshipmentYoYgrowthPCshipmentYoYgrowthSourceIDCBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceIDCBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE422Sep2023Ongoingpressurein2H23Gradualrecoverymaycomein2024Theworldwideconsumerelectronicssectorhaspersistentlyexperiencedastateoffragilityalthoughtherehavebeenglimpsesofrecoveryin2H23HoweverthesustainabilityofthisresurgenceremainscontingentuponfurtherconfirmationastherearenodiscernibleindicationsofasustainedreboundinconsumerdemandintheneartermRegardingshipmentswithineachelectronicscategorywearableshaveenduredthemostseveresetbackswithadeclineof520YoYin1Q23andanadditional465YoYdeclinein2Q23SimilarlyPCandmobileshipmentshavealsobeenhitbutwithmoremoderatemagnitudeFor2023PrismarkreviseddownitsglobalPCBsalesgrowthforecastto150YoYdeclinefromprevious93YoYdeclineWedonotexpectameaningfulturnaroundforPCBindustryintheneartermandbelievethePCBmanufacturerswillcontinuetofacechallengesin2H23Lookinginto2024wethinkglobalsemimarketgrowthcouldbeagoodreferenceforPCBmarketgiventhepositivecorrelationbetweenthesetwodataWSTSupdateditslatestsemimarketforecastsinJune2023Theglobalsemimarketispredictedtoexperienceadownturnof103in2023howeverthisisanticipatedtobefollowedbyarobustrecoverywithestimatedgrowthof119in2024Wemayseesomegradualrecoveryinin2024Figure4GlobalsemigrowthisexpectedtoreboundFigure5GlobalPCBmarketgrowthisexpectedtoin2024duetosteadyglobalGDPgrowthturnnegativein2023to-4140USbn30140241401208660642020-20-1710100-37-4180981778401080624613652553542588-20060-41-4040-10-10320-60-200-802002200620102014200320042005200720082009201120122013201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024EGlobalsemiYoYgrowthGlobalPCBYoYgrowthGlobalPCBmarketGlobalPCBYoYgrowthSourceWSTSPrismarkCMBIGMestimatesSourcePrismarkCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE522Sep2023Copperpriceislikelytoremainstablefortherestof2023PCBslargestcostisCCLc30-70dependingonthetypeofPCBofwhichcopperfoil30-50glassfiber25andresin25arethetopcontributorsThereforecopperisakeymaterialforPCBFigure6CCLiskeymaterialofPCB2019Figure7CCLmaterialcostbreakdown2020OtherOthersCopperfoil381CCL30-50419Resin250PregregGlassfiber200250SourceShengyiElectronicsCMBIGMestimatesSourceShengyiElectronicsCMBIGMestimatesFigure8Copperpricehasfluctuatedlittlein9M23UStonktonnemn121210108086064042020-97-Apr99-Apr01-Apr03-Apr05-Apr07-Apr09-Apr11-Apr13-Apr15-Apr17-Apr19-Apr21-Apr23-AprCopperInventoryLMECopper3mSourceWindCMBIGMestimatesIn2021copperpricewasupdramaticallyreachingUS10ktoninMaydrivenbystrongdemandandtightsupplyIn2022copperpriceremainedatitshighbutbegantofallongrowingglobalrecessionfearssince2QThereisabriefsurgeafterChinasreopening1H23copperpricehasheldsteadywhichwasinlinewithourpreviouspredictionlinkSince2H22copperinventoryhasbeenonadecliningtrendwithaslightrecentuptickThroughourchannelcheckwesawtheinventorylevelofsomedownstreamPCBclientsisrelativelylowHowevertheywerestillreluctanttopurchasemorematerialsMeanwhilethePCBindustryisconsolidatingassmallparticipantsarestrugglingtosurviveThishassuppressedthewillingnesstorestockingandthedemandrecoverhasbeendelayedPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE622Sep2023ChinaPCBSupplyChainOutlookContinuedweaknessin1H23andpendingrecoveryin2H23ChinaisexpectedtomaintainitsdominantpositionastheleadingPCBmanufacturinghubin2023Ecommandingover50ofthemarketshareHoweveritisworthnotingthattheChinaPCBindustryfacedsomesignificantsetbacksin2022ThesechallengeswereprimarilydrivenbyindustryheadwindsandagrowingemphasisonsupplychaindiversificationintheglobalelectronicssectorThediversificationeffortspromptedmanycompaniestoexplorealternativemanufacturinglocationstoreducedependencyonasingleregionWhiletheyear2022waschallengingtherehavebeensignsofaslightreboundindomesticsalessinceChinasreopeningin1H23Neverthelessitisimportanttoapproachthisreboundcautiouslyasmacroeconomicheadwindscontinuetocastuncertaintiesovertheindustrysnear-termprospectsThePCBmarketinChinaisnavigatingacomplexlandscapecharacterizedbyevolvingglobalsupplychaindynamicsthatmayimpactthesustainabilityofthisreboundFigure9ChinathepredominantPCBFigure10BothglobalandChinasemimarketsalesmanufacturingsitewithover50share2023Ereboundedin2Q23AmericasEuropeUSbn4225040Japan20029193015027920China1005310Asiaex50China3100GlobalsemimarketChinasemimarketglobalSourceCompanyfilingsPrismarkCMBIGMestimatesSourceIMFWSTSPrismarkCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE722Sep2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE8