>> 招银国际-Ke Holdings(BEKE US)–Limited long-term impact on commission rate cut for home transactions in Beijing-230927
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研究报告全文：MN27Sep2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateKeHoldingsBEKEUSLimitedlong-termimpactoncommissionratecutforhometransactionsinBeijingTargetPriceUS2450AccordingtoBeijingDailylinkBeijingLianjiahasloweredcommissionrateforUpDownside578existinghometransactionsEHTinBeijingfrompreviousnominalrateof27CurrentPriceUS1553to20andwillstarttocharge10eachonbothhomesellersandbuyersinsteadofonlyfromthebuyersideIntheprudentscenarioweestimateaChinaInternet1563negativeimpactonKeHoldingsBeikesgroup-levelcontributionprofitSaiyiHECFACPin20232024EHoweverweexpectlimitedlong-termimpactonBeikes85239161739earningsfromtheadjustmentofcommissionrateas1currentcommissionratehesaiyicmbicomhkforEHTinBeijingcouldbelowerthan272LianjiaincitiesotherthanBeijingmayhavelimitedroomtocutratesgivenactualratescouldbelowerthan2YeTAOfranktaocmbicomhkMaintainBUYwithSOTP-basedTPunchangedatUS2451563negativeimpactonBeikesCPin20232024inaprudentMiaoZHANGscenarioIntheprudentcaseweassume1allofBeikesEHTinBeijingis85237618910zhangmiaocmbicomhkfulfilledbyLianjiaplatformandallofthecommissionratechargewillbe27atthehigh-endofthenominalratecharge2EHTGTVinBeijingaccountedWentaoLUCFAfor25ofBeikesoverallEHTGTV3contributionprofitmarginCPMisluwentaocmbicomhk455forEHTforBeikeinboth4Q232024MaintainingotherassumptionsunchangedcomparedtoourcurrentforecastthecommissionratecutforStockDataMktCapUSmn183726Beijingwillleadto1563declineinour20232024ECPforecastforBeikeAvg3mthstoUSmn677intheprudentscenarioThatsaidweexpectshort-termnegativeimpactto52wHighLowUS2030977bemilderthanexpectedandlimitedlong-termimpactonearningsgiventhatTotalIssuedSharesmn11830SourceFactSet1BeikescurrentcommissionrateforEHTinBeijingcouldbelowerthanthenominal27givendiscountprovidedinvariousscenariossuchaslargeShareholdingStructureorder-valuetransactionsand2LianjiaincitiesotherthanBeijingmayhavePropitiousGlobal233limitedroomtocutratesgivenactualratescouldbelowerthan2TencentMobility100SourceHKExExpectarecoveryinhousingtransactionin4Q23demandreleasedbyrecentpoliciesissupportingtherecoveryofthepropertysalesevidencedbySharePerformancehighfrequentdatawefollowedAsof25SepnewhometransactionsurgedAbsoluteRelative1-mth8411649WoWandMTDwasat10-14MoMYoYvs-1-23inAug3-mth3242Secondaryhometransactionwentup8WoWwithMTDat3426-mth-154-243MoMYoYvs8-4inAugHoweverourchannelcheckindicatesthatSourceFactSetbuyerssentimentintier-1citiessignalledaretreataftertherallyinthefirst12-mthPricePerformanceweekwhenthenewpolicywasrolledouttimelaginsalesdataWebelievetheregulatorsintentiononstabilizingpropertymarketwasclearandtherelevantpoliceswillbefurtherrelaxedespeciallyinfirsttiercitiestakingintoaccountthat1BEKEsactiontodaywillboostsecondarytransactionandreleasemorenewhomedemand2developerswillaccelerateprojectlaunchtobenefitfromtherecoveringsentiment3CMBILeadingIndicatorsuggestssurprisingsalesdatainOctandwebelievethesalesmayhavebetterperformancein4QSourceFactSetEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn8075260669740958336991017AdjustednetprofitRMBmn2294028428783028585394311AdjNPconsensusRMBmn7873991680105586EPSAdjustedRMB771194239658718PEx2048nana310261PBx2918181614SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk27Sep2023Figure1Newhomesales49WoWasof25SepMTDwasat10-14MoMYoYSourceWindCMBIGMFigure2Secondaryhomesales8WoWasof25SepMTDwasat342MoMYoYSourceWindCMBIGMFigure3Leadingindicatorshowstheproperty-relatedsearchinterestssurgedto90YoYinMTDSepsuggestingnewhomesalestohaveagoodperformanceinOctSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE227Sep2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue704818075260669740958336991017Costofgoodssold536216493346888545036117466141Grossprofit168601581913781195922219524876Operatingexpenses140181717414614153701687717970SGAexpense113041323411920134471487915880RDexpense247831942546192319972090Others236747148000Operatingprofit28421355833422253186906Otherincome78117021569941753678Otherexpense21637192500Investmentgainloss4735655127300ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV3437451400Interestincome163355743116614021504Pre-taxprofit42231141292639174739088Incometax160916651690204222862660Aftertaxprofit26145251397435051876428Minorityinterest1111111111Netprofit26135241386436151986439Corenetprofit9225241386436151986439Adjustednetprofit572022942843783085859431BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets8753969926704258353394327106049Cashequivalents409702044619413308064117851094Restrictedcash856762866181649068157155Accountreceivables1318493254163587059527288Othercurrentassets248183386940667403674038340511Non-currentassets167563039338923389963916039487PPE147219722037177314901215Right-of-useassets6821724411284124121365415019Intangibles164311411687896101663Goodwill246718064934493449344934Othernon-currentassets43531823018981189811898118981Totalassets104296100319109347122529133487145536Currentliabilities336332893633341392644211844735Short-termborrowings0260619619619619Accountpayables65956009584395571072611597Othercurrentliabilities207281536114528162331753418874Leaseliabilities262627534972497249724972Contractliabilities73411023260326032603260Accruedexpenses295034514118462350065412Non-currentliabilities387043276952695269526952Long-termborrowings000000Othernon-currentliabilities387043276952695269526952Totalliabilities375033326340293462164907051687Sharecapital000000Retainedearnings9228984311406704518474592Otherreserves759937681780326832358615389157Totalshareholdersequity667656697468920761908430693749Minorityinterest2782134123112100Totalequityandliabilities104296100319109347122529133487145536PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE327Sep2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation42231141292639174739088Depreciationamortization117411581089183119291968Taxpaid160916651690204222862660Changeinworkingcapital299132503634311576152Others635402354119416542317Netcashfromoperations936235958461125011161011247InvestingCapitalexpenditure8871430793757852930Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments1319898765420000Others8921357813099577963Netcashfrominvesting14978248848472814931993FinancingNetborrowings72026035914183Proceedsfromshareissues000000Others2612613341514000Netcashfromfinancing254061074115514183NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear319314953726732255943729647992Exchangedifference218444229000Cashattheendoftheyear495372673225594372964799258250GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue53214624922112592Grossprofit49662129422133121Operatingprofitnananana260299Netprofitnananana192239Adjnetprofit245459923917549699PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin239196227264266273Operatingmargin401714576476Adjnetprofitmargin812847106103104ReturnonequityROE530820606572GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx060303040505Currentratiox262421212224VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPEna2048nana310261PEdilutedna2086nana310261PB282918181614PCFPS5631390160114125130SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE427Sep2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5
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