研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary26Sep2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报AsianIGspacetightened1-2bpsthismorningNewissuesKOLAHO25were5bpstighterandANZstightenedc2bpsLGFVswereunderbettersellingGlennKoCFA高志和MoodysplacedHuarongreviewfordowngradeHRINTHsdown05to1pt85236576235SeebelowglennkocmbicomhkPINGRETotalsizeofliquiditysupportisnotdisclosedthoughimpactshouldbecushionSeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩EconomicPerspectivesMacroInsightsUSRMBoutlookamid85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkeconomicasynchronicityCMBIexpectsUSRMBratestoreach72atend-2023and70atend-2024SeebelowforcommentsfromoureconomicresearchJerryWang王世超Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点85237618919jerrywangcmbicomhkYesterdayUST10yryieldwidened10bpsto454OnthenewissuefrontINDKOR28stightened2bpstoclosearoundT75TherecentnewBBLTB2833stightened1-3bpsInChinesefinancialsthefrontendofAMCsweretradedafirmerHRINTH24-27sweretraded025-05pthigherwhilethelonger-datedpaperswereunchangedMoodyshasplacedtheratingsofChinaHuarongHuarongAMCunderreviewfordowngradeSeebelowforcommentsGRWALL24-25swereunchangedto02pthigherwhileCCAMCLswerestableChinesebankT2swerefirmWecontinuedtoseeactivetwo-wayflowsonBCHINA524CCB42529InChineseSOEsHAOHUAsedged1-3bpswiderTMTbenchmarkswere2bpswiderInthehighbetaTMTsLENOVOWB30sclosed2-6bpstighterwithactivebuyingflowsInHKIGsCKHHHKLSP33swere1-2bpswiderHKCorpperpssuchasNWDEVLCKPHPerpsdeclined05-075ptHKChinesepropertiesremainedweakdespitethatSHUION25sandDALWAN24s25swereamongtheexceptionstoclose05pthigherPINGRE24-26sweretraded25-75ptslowergiventheCSRCinquiryonthedefaultofprojectloansSeebelowforcommentsVNKRLEFUTLANFTLNHD24-27sweredownanother075-125ptsCOGARDSSINOCEsCHINSCswere05-1ptlowerIndustrialsperformedmixedEHICAR24swereup05ptWhilstAACTEC26s31sweredown05ptInMacaugamingsectorMPELsSANLTDswere05-1ptlowerInIndianspaceVEDLN24-26swereup05-075ptIndonesiannamesLMRTSP24s26swereup05ptTheLGFVPerpspacehadafairlyquietsessiontostarttheweekasonshoreaccountsalreadylookedforwardtotheNationalDayMid-AutumnlongholidaystartingfromthisFridayFlow-wisethereweresomesmallbettersellingflowsinhigh-betaLGFVsbutthebidsinGSHIAVKMRLGP24sremainedsupportiveMeanwhiletheclientdemandcontinuedtofocusinthefront-endcash-parkingpapersacrossLGFVsandSOEperpsTheShandongChongqinghigher-yieldingpapersremainedwell-bidsSHUGRP24sSHGUOH26sCQNANA26swereup02-04ptInSOEperpsCHALUMPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk126Sep202341PerpHUANEN308PerpSINOCH3Perpwereup0125ptElsewhereZHONAN25s26swereup075-1ptFRESHK26swereup02pttocloseat845therecenthighLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeZHONAN31807162588810PINGRE345072926581-74SDGOLD2808252690009PINGRE314062325621-57ZHONAN31203082686007PINGRE234072924761-27VEDLN89503112573707CNOOC33093049652-18LMRTSP71202092656606CHGRID485050744907-17MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroSP040Dow013andNasdaq045reboundedonMondayRussiarelaxedexportbanonlow-qualitydieselmarinefuelWTIBrentcrudeoilpricesreachedUSD897918perbarrelTheUSTyieldsralliedhigheryesterdayand10yryieldrosetothehighestlevelsince2007251030yieldreachedat509462455467respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点HRINTHAnegativeratingactionsignorethepositivesofsizeablebondrepurchasesMoodysplacedChinaHuarongsBaa3ratingreviewfordowngradeyesterdayTheagencyviewsthelargenetlossin1H23isakeydriverofthenegativeratingactionandexpectstheelevatedimpairmentlosseswillcontinuetostrainHuarongsprofitabilityoverthenext12-18monthsThelatestratingignorethesizeablebondrepurchasedrecentlyannouncedLastweekHuarongdisclosedtherepurchasesandcancellationofUSDbondsofcUSD579mnequivalentannouncedcUSD288mnon19SepUSD291mnon21SepThefocusoftherepurchaseswereonlonger-datedbondswithlowercashpricesandthesedemonstratedHuarongsconfidenceonitsnear-termliquidityaheadofthematurityofHRINTH2125093023osUSD600mnon30Sep23Wealsobelievethattherepurchasetheselonger-datedbondsatdecentdiscountswilltranslateintoanexceptionalprofitofcUSD150mncRMB11bnaccordingtoourestimatebyusingrespectiveaveragebondpricesinpastthreemonthscomparedwithnetlossofRMB6bnin1H23andtotalequityofRMB39bnasatJun23TherepurchasesatdiscountwouldcutdebtandhelpimproveitscapitaladequacyAswediscussedinourcommentsonChinaAMCson8SeppublishedafterChinaAMCsexceptGreatWallreleasedtheir1H23financialsweexpectedtoseemorenegativeheadlinessuchasnegativeratingactionsandthesearelargelypricedincurrentvaluationsofChinaAMCsPleasealsorefertoourcommentsonHuarongsbuybackon20Sepand22SepHRINTHshavebeenourtoppicksofthesectorWealsolikeGRWALL395Perpcallable073124aftertherecentpricecorrectionandCCAMCL44Perpcallable031126asalowbetaplayPINGRETotalsizeofliquiditysupportisnotdisclosedthoughimpactshouldbecushionOn21SepCSRCquestionedPingAnRealEstatePAREsfailureindisclosureofdefaultedprojectloanofcRMB200mninitsfilingforpublicofferingofcorporatebondsInthepressreleaseyesterdayPAREmentioned226Sep2023thatitdidnotexpecttheneedtoincurfurthercashoutfloworlossesresultingfromthedefaultoftheprojectloanToillustratethedefaultedloanwasrelatedtoaJVprojectwithZhenroinZhengzhouZhenroandPAREown51and49equityinterestsoftheprojectrespectivelyPAREprovidedaletterofliquiditysupportonapro-ratabasisfortheprojectloanofRMB250mnoutofwhichRMB200mnwasoverdueAsperthejudgmentissuedbyHenanHighPeoplesCourtinJulyPAREisliableforanypro-rata49shortfallafterauctionofthepledgedlandRecalledthatthelandparcelwasacquiredthroughauctionatcRMB473mnin2019implyinganinitialLTVofc50orc43ontheoverdueamountAsperPAREthecurrentvalueofthelandshouldwellexceedtheoverdueamountofcRMB200mnHencePAREdoesnotexpecttohavefurthercashoutflowtobridgetheshortfallandlossesafterthesaleofcollateralThekeyareasofconcernarewhetherthejudgementofHenanHighPeoplesCourtwillsetaprecedentandhowlargeisthesizeofliquiditysupportinrelationtotheJVwithdistressedpartnerPAREdoesnotconsidertheletterofliquiditysupporttobealoanguaranteehencethetotalsizeofitsliquiditysupportisnotdisclosedWeunderstandtheLTVforconstructionisonacasebycasebasisHoweveriftheimpliedLTVofitsZhengzhouJVc50offeragoodgaugewebelievethatriskofcashoutflowresultingfromtheobligationsofprovidingattributableliquiditysupportshouldbecushionedAsofJun23PAREhadRMB101bncashonhandandfacedRMB178bnshort-termdebtincludingRMB3bnonshorebondswillbedueinSep23andOct23TheCSRCsinquirylettermaycausedelaystoPAREsproposedonshorebondsissuancetotaledRMB18bnWeexpectmoredisclosureregardingthedetailsofliquiditysupportforprojectswithdistressedJVpartnersandshallprovideupdatesonthesePINGREsretreated35to75ptsyesterdayandmoveanother1to15ptslowerthismorningOnshorebondsOffshorebondsMaturityRMBmnUSDmn20233000-20247887300202550005002026andafter3027300Total189141100SourceBloombergWindMacroInsightsUSRMBoutlookamideconomicasynchronicityUSRMBrateschangeintandemwithUS-SinointerestratedifferentialsasthetwovariablesbothreflecteconomicasynchronicityinthetwolargesteconomiesThelatestcyclewithstrongUSdollarandweakrenminbiwasduetostrongereconomyintheUSthaninEuropeandChinaandhighergeopoliticalrisksaftertheRussia-UkrainewarLookingforwardrenminbimayremainweakinneartermbeforemildappreciationin2024NextyearUS-SinointerestratedifferentialsmayshrinkasUSnominalGDPgrowthgraduallydeclinesandChinasnominalGDPgrowthslowlyreboundsUSRMBratesareexpectedtoreach72atend-2023and70atend-2024FactorsinfluencingUSdollarindexthedynamicsintherelativestrengthofUSeconomyandriskaversionsentimentinglobalmarketWhentheUSeconomyperformsbetterthanothereconomiesUSdollartendstoappreciateWhenriskaversionsentimentrisesUSdollartendstostrengthenSinceEURUSrateisthelargestcomponentinUSdollarindexeconomicasynchronicitybetweenUSandEurozoneandgeopoliticalrisksrelatedtoEuropehasasignificantinfluenceonUSdollarindexFactorsinfluencingUSRMBrateUS-SinoeconomicasynchronicityandgeopoliticalrisksespeciallyrelatedtoChinaUSRMBrateshaveastrongercorrelationwithUS-Sinoshort-terminterestratedifferentialsthan326Sep2023withlong-termonesUS-SinotensionsespeciallyoverChineseTaiwanissuecouldnoticeablyweakenrenminbiwhilestrengtheningUSdollarThelatestcyclewithstrongUSdollarweakrenminbistrongereconomyintheUSthaninEuropeChinahighergeopoliticalrisksaftertheRussia-UkrainewarandincreasingconcernsaboutgeopoliticaltensionsinTaiwanStraitOutlookforUSdollarRMBratesaheadAstheUSeconomyandinflationremainsresilientorstickyinneartermUSdollarmayremainstronginnextseveralweeksHoweverthedollarmayweakenin2024whentheUSeconomyandinflationgraduallyslowsIftheRussia-Ukrainewarcouldendin2024marketsentimentforEurozoneeconomyandtheEurowouldbesignificantlyboostedRenminbimayremainweakinneartermbeforemildappreciationin2024PossibleweakeningofUSdollarandagradualrecoveryofChinaseconomyshouldprovidesomesupporttorenminbiClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponPricedMSFKoreaLandHousingCorp7002yr575CT275Aa2AA-OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere119creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB75bnAsforMonth-to-date1551creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB1440bnraisedrepresentinga231yoyincreaseCHFOTNMediareportedthatCFLDremittedfundsforthird164installmentondomesticbondsoutofassetsalepoolCHIGRAFitchdowngradedChinaGrandAutotoCCCCOGARDMediareportedthatCountryGardenHoldingshasselectedHoulihanLokeyandCICCasfinancialadvisorstoassistonaholisticoffshoredebtrestructuringDALWANDalianWandaCommercialManagementschedulesinterestpaymentforRMB2bn55coupon20Wanda02bondson9OctEVERREMediareportedthatChinaEvergrandeex-CEOXiaHaijunformerCFOPanDarongweredetainedbyChineseauthoritiesFUTLANSeazenHoldingsloweredproposednewshareofferingsizetouptoRMB45bnfromuptoRMB8bn426Sep2023INDYIJMediareportedthatIndikaEnergysignedagreementtosellcoalunitMultiTambangjayaforUSD218mnNIONIOclosedofferingofUSD500mnconvertibleseniornotesdue2029USD500mnconvertibleseniornotesdue2030thecompanyclarifiedthatithasnootherreportablecapitalraisingactivityinrecentRISSUNRiseSunRealEstateDevelopmentextendedexpirationdeadlineto28Sepforconsentsolicitationofnotesduein20232024SDEXPRShandongHi-SpeedGroupissuedRMB2bnthree-yearMTNswith307coupontorepaydebtsVNKRLEVankeannouncedtoexercisethecalloptiononitsRMB381mn35due-2025notesinNov23FixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523657623585239000801fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStates526Sep2023CMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport6