>> 招银国际-China Economy – PMI returns to expansion as sign of economic recovery-231003
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研究报告全文：3Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaEconomyPMIreturnstoexpansionassignofeconomicrecoveryChinasmanufacturingPMIinSeproseto502andbeatmarketexpectationsBingnanYEPhDaftercontractingforfivestraightmonthsManufacturingactivitiesinlarge85237618967enterprisesmaintaineditsstrongrecoverywhilesmallandmediumenterprisesyebingnancmbicomhkstillstayedincontractionProductionneworderandpurchasevolumecontinuedFrankLiutoexpandindicatingarecoveryondomesticdemandsideExportorderslightly85256617298improvedandimportindexesfurtherdippedwhilebothremainedbelow50frankliucmbicomhkindicatingcontinuousdeclinesinforeigntradeactivitiesDuetotheresurgenceofenergyandcommoditypricesmaterialpurchasepriceindexandex-factoryproductindexincreasedsubstantiallyWeexpectfurthershrinkageofYoYdeclinesinthePPIinnextseveralmonthsEmploymentinmanufacturingremainedtediousduetoweakdemandandindustrialupgradetowardshigherlabourproductivityServicePMIreboundedalthoughthepent-upsummertraveldemandsoftenedastransportservicelodgingandcateringservicedroppedintocontractionRecentlyChinahassignalledstrongerpolicylooseningaheadThecountryhaseasedpropertyrestrictionsacrosscitiesloosenedcreditsupplyandstartedtoimplementapackageoflocalgovernmentdebtresolvingplansWeexpectfurtherlocalgovernmentrefinancingbondsissuanceandcreditsupplySourceNBSCMBIGMlooseninginnextseveralmonthsChinaseconomymaygraduallyimproveinnextfourquartersWemaintainourforecastonChinasGDPgrowthat51in2023and48in2024ManufacturingactivityreturnedtoexpansionwithmorepositiveoutlookChinasPMIinmanufacturingcameinaboveexpectationandroseto502inSeptemberfrom497inAugustProductionindexcontinuedtoexpandfrom519inAugustto527inSepNeworderandmaterialpurchasevolumecontinuedtoexpandrespectivelyfrom502and505inAugustto505and507inSepindicatingasustainingimprovementonthedemandsideBreakingdownbysectorindexesinequipmentmanufacturinghigh-SourceNBSCMBIGMtechnologymanufacturingandconsumergoodsreachedabove50whileenergy-intensiveindustriesremainedinthecontractionaryrangeExportslightlyimprovedandimportindexescontinuedtoworsenwhilebothremainedincontractionindicatinganarrowingtradesurplusinSeptemberPMIoflargeenterprisesexpandednoticeablyfrom508inAugustto516inSepwhilebothsmallandmediumenterprisesremainedincontractionReflationtrendentrencheddrivenbyrisingenergyandcommoditypricesMaterialpurchasepriceindexandex-factorypriceindexcontinuedtorallyfrom565and52inAugustto595and535inSepindicatingareflationtrendintheindustrialsectorpossiblydrivenbyrisingenergyandcommoditypricesInventoryformaterialsandfinishedproductsmarginallyremainedincontractionasbusinesseswerecautioustoincreaseinventoryinvestmentConstructionpriceremainedinexpansionandservicepriceindexmoderatelyincreasedWeexpectChinasCPIandPPItocontinueitsgradualreboundinnextseveralquartersalongwithamildrecoveryofaggregatedemandNon-manufacturingsectorsimprovedamidfadingmomentuminholidaytraveldemandNon-manufacturingPMIreboundedby70bpsto517inSepPMIinservicefurtherrosefrom505inAugustto509inSepBreakingdownbysectoroutputinwatertransportationpostalserviceTVbroadcastPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk3Oct2023ITserviceandfinancialservicenoticeablyexpandedwhilerailroadairtransportationlodginganddiningservicesfellbelow50BusinesssentimentindexesinrailroadtransportationpostalservicefinancialserviceandTVbroadcastcameinabove60ConstructionPMIincreasedto562inSepfrom538inAugustTheneworderindexralliedto50afterfourmonthsofcontractionEmploymentstillstruggledasemploymentindexfurtherdeterioratedEmploymentremainedindeepcontractionasemploymentindexesinmanufacturingandconstructionmarginallyincreasedto481and463inSepfrom48and447inAugustwhileemploymentinservicefurtherdippedto469inSepfrom472inAugustTheweakemploymentconditionwillrestraintherecoverymomentumofhouseholdconsumptioninChinaandbeamajordragontheeconomicgrowthStrongerlooseningpoliciesandlocalgovernmentdebtresolvingplanscominginasChinaseconomymaygraduallyimproveaheadPolicymakershaveadoptedabroadspectrumofsupportivepoliciesincludinglooseningpropertypoliciesexpandingcreditsupplyandactivatingcapitalmarketLookingaheadstabilizingpropertymarketandrelievinglocalgovernmentdebtpressurewillbemajorpolicygoalsinnexttwoquartersMunicipalgovernmentsmayfurtherloosenpropertypolicieswhilethePBOCmayfurthereasecreditsupplywithpossibleadditionalcutsinRRRdepositratesandLPRsLocalgovernmentsmayhaverefinancingbondquotastoreplacethematuredcontingentdebtMeanwhilebankswillbeencouragedtorolloverthelocalgovernmentcontingentdebtChinaseconomyisexpectedtograduallyimproveinnextfourquartersWemaintainourforecastontheGDPgrowthat51for2023and48for2024PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3Oct2023Figure1NewOrderIndexFigure2BusinessSentimentIndexSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure3ExportOrderIndexandImportIndexFigure4InventoryIndexSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure5MaterialPurchasePriceIndexFigure6Ex-factoryPriceIndexSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE33Oct2023Figure7ManufacturingOutputIndexFigure8ServicePMIOutputIndexSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure9CompositeOutputIndexFigure10EmploymentIndexSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure11SupplyDeliveryIndexFigure12SubwayPassengerFlowinTier-1CitiesSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE43Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5
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